Farmer Bill
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November 12, 2021, 05:29:19 PM |
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So when NEW poll??
Is S2F 98k close November going to happen Yes or No ….
Haha no chance moon boi. Your party is over. Yep its all over Bitcoin is dead (for the 1025689735th time) Billy no coiner was right, his exceptional predictive TA is spot on every time. I advised you to buy when price was $30k, you fucking missed it, you would today have had cause to celebrate a $63k party. Hookers blow that sort of stuff, or maybe candy and a soda. You better go, mom is calling you for lunch, don't spend Friday's pocket money all at once, you could buy a few Satoshis with it. $63k is a great time to buy. Go on do it, or I'll be reminding you again at $90k.
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JayJuanGee
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November 12, 2021, 05:46:35 PM |
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What is it with Fridays and dips? It used to be the last Friday of the month, now it's every bleedin Friday.
Yeah.. for sure it is time to panic and whine.. life is so horrible. As an example, we have had so much (many) Friday dippening(s) in recent times that it is having an unfair detrimental effect on BTC prices so that currently as I type this post, we happen to ONLY still be within the top 10 days of bitcoin weighted average prices... cry, cry, cry home to momma... it's such a sad place where we are at. Someone seems to need, at minimum, a batman slap. #nohomoOh no, bitcoin crashed to levels not seen since 2 days ago.
I don't want to start some sh!t again.... But it might go to $52K in the next week or so ... maybe in 2-3 tops. ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) Yes. In that same time frame of one week to 3 weeks, it might go down to $52k, and it might not. It also might go down to $60k and it might not. Also, it might go up to $80k and it might not. It might go to $100k and it might not. Finally, it might continue to range between $60k and $69k, and it might not. Quite a few things that bitcoin could do (or not) in the next 1-3 weeks. So thanks for your contribution towards greater clarity about current bitcoin price dynamics, or not, Save the RF. Dumping is certain cuz sh!tcoins need to be pumped. And when Sh!tcoins are dumped, BTCiTcoin pumps. And now they are kinda pumped, the sh!tcoins. And that means there is pressure on BTC of those who do weekly swing trades between BTC < > Sh!tcoins. ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif) Yes.. those kinds of dumb theories regarding trading in and out of shitcoins have been quite popular for many years - even going back to 2013-ish - even though they have become more prevalent with the proliferation of more varieties and quantities of shitcoins - surely not a topic for this thread... whether it is a dumbass approach to matters or not.... Regarding your proclamation that any kind of BTC price movement in bitcoin being certain (including bitcoin and including that bitcoin is some how related to shitcoins - the tail wagging the dog nonsense), is obviously false on its face... there is no certainty when it comes to short-term price moves, even if sometimes there can be attempts to play momentum and to play changes in the direction of momentum, but even the momentum or the changes in the direction in momentum can be quite difficult to predict - especially short term... so yes, there are quite a few dweebs, just like you, who like to propagate misinformation that price movements in one direction or another are certain, and hopefully no one really takes a dweeb like you seriously because even if the dumb-assedness of what you are saying might not be obvious on its face, most of us realize that you are a walking bag of contradictions - to the extent anything that you say might come out as quasi-coherent (and lucid.. which is especially rare), from time to time. By the way, trying to trade in and out of shitcoins to either accumulate more BTC or to accumulate dollars tends to be a dumb-ass approach to matters, not only because a dweeb like you Save the RF is propounding it, but because there is a lot of gambling and timing involved in trying to select which shitcoin is less shitty and all that kind of bullshit, when mental and financial power should be employed more solidly including much more solid foundation to develop long-term bitcoin accumulation strategies first.. and there is no need to involve shitcoins into any kind of strategy formulation that both involves accumulating more bitcoin and solidifying a decently sound approach to longer-term investment(s) into bitcoin. Spot ETF rejected causing the minor DIP?
Link or it did not happen. ![Angry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/angry.gif)
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BitcoinBunny
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November 12, 2021, 05:47:25 PM |
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Another "soft" lockdown ordered in The Netherlands with curfews for most things like shops, bars and restaurants at 8pm but not cinemas etc. Sure, because Covid knows what time it is and doesn't like movies.
After that (3 weeks to flatten another curve) probably "2g policy", which is a nice way of saying that you will submit to God Pfizer or be banished from society.
Oh and Bitcoin is dead for real this time.
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ChartBuddy
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November 12, 2021, 06:01:32 PM |
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shahzadafzal
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November 12, 2021, 06:11:29 PM |
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infofront (OP)
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November 12, 2021, 06:19:00 PM |
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So when NEW poll??
Is S2F 98k close November going to happen Yes or No ….
You asked for it ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Here are the old poll results, for posterity or whatever: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVNuzaqr.jpg&t=665&c=sCZniiE5KMJ6ow)
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gallianooo
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November 12, 2021, 06:20:34 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (3) |
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Guess he has realised his price target this month isn't going to be anywhere near close. $93k does seem to be a bit of a stretch to be calling that a kind of "worse-case scenario" for November (as he called that in July/August time-frame) .. .bitcoin no does not seem to work like that... but hey, we still have around 18 days for the month to close out - as had already been mentioned by a couple of posters. Just one thing in my mind...
Nobody talked/talk here about the release of 140K BTC from Mtgox (should be very soon) ?
I assume it doesn't change the long term view on BTC... But into this bull market cycle (still quite calm and not so explosive as many expected/expect till now) , I am curious to see how the market can react at least on a short time view. Some drop again? 52K? 42K?
I do agree that there would likely be a decent amount of selling pressure from the MTGOX release of 140k BTC, and even though we likely do not know all of the details, there are a certain number of those coins that would be getting released to third-party entities who have bought those coins off of the original account holders, so a certain number of those coins would be sold - whether such sales are attempted strategically to NOT move the market or are attempted in ways to push the BTC price down is still to be found out. On a personal level, I am not very concerned about the BTC market NOT being able to absorb such coins, and I doubt that there is any major fear for $52k or $42k, even though those price could happen as well. Whether bitcoin is transitioned from its current bull market (or even inability to meaningfully pass through noman's land) to a bear market is also a possibility, but seems to be on the minority side - at least at this time... In other words, I will believe it when I see it (if I see it). On another level, of course if we ever start to witness what seems to be any kind of meaningful reversal in momentum, that is going to be attempted to be played as maximally as possible to attempt to scare additional HODLers out of their coins.. so surely, if extreme corrections can be accomplished based on all of the circumstances to couple both psychological factors with actual physical dumpening of coins, then we are not going to put it past the bearwhales to play such card(s) to as much of an extent as they are able to accomplish. On the other hand, we have all the positive fondamental from the BTC side : ETF, GAFA owning BTC (corporate or individuals), legal tenders started in Central-South America... And if we are honest, on 2015 or 2017 we even didn't think about these points. So should be VERY bullish now IMHO.
HODL.
WE also have various BTC price prediction models of stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles that would suggest that we have not experienced any kind of significant or meaningful blow off top, yet... so having the 56% correction in May/June/July and then revisiting the ATH.. seems to lend quite a bit of credibility that the UPside movement of this here little party cycle has not quite come close to playing its course, yet... So those kinds of factors should be taken into account, including the fact that experiencing 10% to 15% to more than 30% corrections (even during the upside portions) of a bull market exponential UPpity price periods has not been unusual happenings in bitcoinlandia.. even to shake out a decent number of weakeling and whiny hands along the way.. and sure the smarter of them might just shave a little off in order to not be too overloaded in BTC, but for sure, there are always a decent number who end up selling too much too soon.. and speculating that they sold at or near the top when then end up selling somewhere below 50% (and sometimes even 25% or lower) of what ends up being the actual top, so when bitcoin goes the remainder of its way UPpity, they have either no coins or hardly any coins to sell on the way up. Happens every cycle, even to some seemingly smart HODLers. I am mostly agree with you. The only point I am not agree is : there is a big difference between doing 10-15% or 30%+ corrections in a bull market BECAUSE we had a huge upside before. Of course we had these kind of down in the previous bull market cycles but we made at the same time much higher multiple of BTC price. What I see on this run is that we go up quite slowly (and smaller multiple) BUT we make the same % of correction than the previous more explosives bullrun. What I see too (and probably the good part) is there isn't any FOMO yet, we made very shy new ATH and we are staying not so far on the previous one. Should be strange to TOP the bull market on this kind of situation (even if we never know). Don't know if it's relevant, even the google trend (worldwide) on Bitcoin keyword is still very low.
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goldkingcoiner
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November 12, 2021, 06:22:20 PM Last edit: November 12, 2021, 07:43:44 PM by goldkingcoiner |
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So when NEW poll??
Is S2F 98k close November going to happen Yes or No ….
You asked for it ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Here are the old poll results, for posterity or whatever: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVNuzaqr.jpg&t=665&c=sCZniiE5KMJ6ow) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FnLLwg80%2FUnbenannt.png&t=665&c=RoTXdY4jT2LAYg) My dude. This is not a yes or no question. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fG_8Vxm0Dzs
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philipma1957
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November 12, 2021, 06:23:35 PM |
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So when NEW poll??
Is S2F 98k close November going to happen Yes or No ….
Maybe ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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Farmer Bill
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November 12, 2021, 06:24:18 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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I have nothing against boomers, and abhor that phrase. Almost a boomer myself. Cusp. But on the GenX side. We are a sarcastic generation. And cynical. One day the millennials will also be sarcastic and cynical. It is called growing up.
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Farmer Bill
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November 12, 2021, 06:56:27 PM Merited by vapourminer (2) |
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Just one thing in my mind...
Nobody talked/talk here about the release of 140K BTC from Mtgox (should be very soon) ?
I assume it doesn't change the long term view on BTC... But into this bull market cycle (still quite calm and not so explosive as many expected/expect till now) , I am curious to see how the market can react at least on a short time view. Some drop again? 52K? 42K?
On the other hand, we have all the positive fondamental from the BTC side : ETF, GAFA owning BTC (corporate or individuals), legal tenders started in Central-South America... And if we are honest, on 2015 or 2017 we even didn't think about these points. So should be VERY bullish now IMHO.
HODL.
This has been at the back of my mind too. I had an account at Gox but withdrew my coins before withdrawals were stopped. I did consider at the very end to deposit $100 for a punt as this would have bought 1 BTC when market price was several times that. Had I done so my recompense today in fiat terms would be a nice windfall. I think most Gox customers would be people like me, I'd take the settlement in BTC and put in in my cold wallet. For those taking settlement in fiat I imagine the trustees, not wanting to collapse the market, (like they did when some BTC were sold to pay the insolvency administrators) would seek an OTC solution. I'm sure major players are aware of the situation. There is about $9 billion to disburse, which will be spread over a fairly long timeline, of course it will affect the market but probably not by that much.
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ChartBuddy
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November 12, 2021, 07:01:24 PM |
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Macadonian
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November 12, 2021, 07:42:10 PM Merited by Westingcote (2) |
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You better go, mom is calling you for lunch, don't spend Friday's pocket money all at once, you could buy a few Satoshis with it. $63k is a great time to buy. Go on do it, or I'll be reminding you again at $90k.
Unironically this is the best advice on this topic right now. For a long time we have been seeing dips on Fridays and if history continues to repeat itself then using your pocket money for a couple of satoshi's might be worth it. What I see too (and probably the good part) is there isn't any FOMO yet, we made very shy new ATH and we are staying not so far on the previous one. Should be strange to TOP the bull market on this kind of situation (even if we never know). Don't know if it's relevant, even the google trend (worldwide) on Bitcoin keyword is still very low.
We need some big news to push it further that is the only way we will get the FOMO factor. Most news sites are not talking about Bitcoin either.
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JayJuanGee
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[edited out]
I am mostly agree with you. The only point I am not agree is : there is a big difference between doing 10-15% or 30%+ corrections in a bull market BECAUSE we had a huge upside before. Of course, I am not wedded to any kind of scenario, but you seem to be the one that is more emphasizing upon some kinds of scenarios are not within the realm of because this time is different or some kind of nonsense (or presumption) like that. Sure, we might have differing presumptions about where we are at exactly, and my description has been that we have been largely been in a bull cycle since about April 2019 - which was largely confirmed in May 2019... so there have been a lot of ups and downs in that 2.5 year timeframe, and surely I will concede that you want to focus upon where we are at currently and attempt to analyze whether we might be in an exponential upwards phase or if that exponential upwards phase had already happened and therefore we might be topping or not able to recover from various 15% to 30% recoveries because the 4-year fractal timeframe is running out.. Even if I have not characterized your argument adequately or fairly, I am still going to assert that there seems to be some attempts at putting limits on king daddy in terms of what is possible and you seem to be wanting to fight the various BTC price models to assign higher probabilities to downside (such as your suggestion that $52k or $42k is even decently likely) than what I would consider to be reasonable in terms of both my consideration that we are in an upwards price pressure posture including being in noman's land which largely gives some presumptions to $80k having high chances of being reached before $52k.., and yeah for sure nothing is inevitable or for sure and maybe even the odds are not very high that $80k would be reached before $52k.. in the ballpark of 53/47? or some other weighing of odds rather than proclaiming matters with high levels of certainty. Of course we had these kind of down in the previous bull market cycles but we made at the same time much higher multiple of BTC price.
I doubt that bitcoin is limited in any kind of meaningful sense based on these kinds of assertions.. sure instead of getting 100x in 1-2 years like in 2013 or 78x in 2-3 years like 2017 we might only be capable of some smaller numbers, such as 50x.. and yeah we might already be well over 16x if we might be counting $4,200-ish as our 2019 starting point (or surely we could have different assessments regarding what is reasonable or feasible based on starting from different price points.. and some peeps might argue that $10k is our reasonable starting point or the previous ATH of $20k as reasonable starting off points, and I personally would claim that those higher number starting off points are not really representative of a more reasonable starting off point that would more likely be somewhere in the sub $10ks such as using bottom prices or even bases in which it could be argued that the current run started). By the way, I also would suggest that this time does not even seem that much different in terms of outlining limitations because of some of the macrofactors involving money printing or even the level of financialization that bitcoin has been experiencing in recent times and further supported by some of the BIGGER players increasingly getting into the bitcoin space and making fundamental assessments of the solidity of bitcoin's investment thesis compared with other asset classes. What I see on this run is that we go up quite slowly (and smaller multiple) BUT we make the same % of correction than the previous more explosives bullrun.
Sure you are free to come to whatever assessment that you like in terms of what you believe to be in the short to medium term bitcoin cards, yet from my perspective you seem to be both bearish on the upside and seemingly failing/refusing to give sufficient accounting for various seemingly credible BTC price projection models that would not give too much weight to either the top already being in or that we have already gone through our exponential price rise period for this cycle.. and sure I am repeating myself on this aspect and sure you seem to be downplaying such exponential upside potential for this cycle. I could also proclaim that bitcoin does not work in the way that you seem to be ascribing because 1) we already had a hell of a pretty large price correction with the 56% correction and 2) large corrections become mostly justifiably likely when large upside has also happened... but hey, do what you like in terms of spinning your own model, even if some folks, including yours truly, would consider such a model to be a wee bit detached from how bitcoin works even while I would concede that anything is possible, even if I consider you to be describing a less likely scenario while suggesting that you consider such a scenario to be amongst the more likely of scenarios. What I see too (and probably the good part) is there isn't any FOMO yet, we made very shy new ATH and we are staying not so far on the previous one. Should be strange to TOP the bull market on this kind of situation (even if we never know). Don't know if it's relevant, even the google trend (worldwide) on Bitcoin keyword is still very low.
Ok fair enough... we do seem to agree on this part.. and in that regard maybe at minimum each of us would conclude that something like a doubling of the current top (which would be something like $130k-ish) would have decent chances of happening for this cycle and we have not seen a kind of crazy-ass price moves, yet. Surely, I have reservations to presume anything too crazy in terms of tops, either, so I will grant that my assignment of probabilities does get increasingly less and less as we go up the spectrum of price possibilities.. but seems that I am a bit more receptive than you to some of the upside possibilities.. and you are likely assigning more weight than me to downside probabilities. Accordingly, at this time, I probably have not moved very much off of my probability estimations from about 5 days ago (quoted below for ease of reference)... Do you think we will see a 200K BTC within the next 4-5 months? I'm not so sure.
I hardly have any clue. Recently, I have provided my assignments of probabilities both in terms of price and in terms of timeline in the below two linked posts.. and sure even I might waffle from time to time, and reserve the right to change my opinion from time to time, too. This post that I made about Price from about 8 days ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876My post about price puts supra $200k at about 30.5% for this cycle, but it does not put the end of the cycle at 4-5 months.. but suggests a 95% chance that the end of the cycle would happen by the 3rd quarter of 2022. This post that I made about time from a few days ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58346117#msg58346117Furthermore, I stated in that post that I have about a 77.5% expectation that the cycle would end before the 2nd quarter of 2022... but what the fuck do I know.. I am just doing my best to put probabilities on various events.
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cygan
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November 12, 2021, 07:57:10 PM |
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So when NEW poll??
Is S2F 98k close November going to happen Yes or No ….
just hodl - and all is good ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif)
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Farmer Bill
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November 12, 2021, 07:57:39 PM |
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What is it with Fridays and dips? It used to be the last Friday of the month, now it's every bleedin Friday.
That upgrade to fikka in a hipster joint has got to you. No more cheap delicacies for you at the discount store. What is going on in Sweden with the director of finance supervisory authority and the lapdog in environment protection agency trying to get the EU to ban bitcoin. Because energy use might see Sweden fail to meet its climate nonsense target. Seems more to be that Swedes are keeping cash in their microwaves rather than in the bank at negative interest rates that is worrying the financial guy Erik Thedéen. So in future we might be saying Sweden bans Bitcoin again! All panic.
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ChartBuddy
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November 12, 2021, 08:01:24 PM |
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OutOfMemory
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November 12, 2021, 08:53:55 PM |
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Just one thing in my mind...
Nobody talked/talk here about the release of 140K BTC from Mtgox (should be very soon) ?
I assume it doesn't change the long term view on BTC... But into this bull market cycle (still quite calm and not so explosive as many expected/expect till now) , I am curious to see how the market can react at least on a short time view. Some drop again? 52K? 42K?
On the other hand, we have all the positive fondamental from the BTC side : ETF, GAFA owning BTC (corporate or individuals), legal tenders started in Central-South America... And if we are honest, on 2015 or 2017 we even didn't think about these points. So should be VERY bullish now IMHO.
HODL.
140K coins is not even half of the supply of a year of the current halvening cycle. About as many coins as are "supplied" by mining are leaving exchanges, sometomes even more, according to on-chain analysis, IIRC. I put "supplied" under quotes, because miners are also accumulating for future sales, so these coins might get on the market in the future, or not. Also, i consider the typical MtGox customer as a hodler, so i doubt that every single released coin will be dumped for filthy fiat. Even if my opinion might have flaws: We'll see. For me it will be an opportunity to throw spare fiat at low bitcoin prices. What is it with Fridays and dips? It used to be the last Friday of the month, now it's every bleedin Friday.
If you survived 2013 with most of your stash (did you?), you will have the patience to sit this out. Turbulences ahead doesn't make a pilot return to the airport. In 90's hipster slang: Go with the flow ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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