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I am mostly agree with you. The only point I am not agree is : there is a big difference between doing 10-15% or 30%+ corrections in a bull market BECAUSE we had a huge upside before.
Of course, I am not wedded to any kind of scenario, but you seem to be the one that is more emphasizing upon some kinds of scenarios are not within the realm of because this time is different or some kind of nonsense (or presumption) like that.
Sure, we might have differing presumptions about where we are at exactly, and my description has been that we have been largely been in a bull cycle since about April 2019 - which was largely confirmed in May 2019... so there have been a lot of ups and downs in that 2.5 year timeframe, and surely I will concede that you want to focus upon where we are at currently and attempt to analyze whether we might be in an exponential upwards phase or if that exponential upwards phase had already happened and therefore we might be topping or not able to recover from various 15% to 30% recoveries because the 4-year fractal timeframe is running out..
Even if I have not characterized your argument adequately or fairly, I am still going to assert that there seems to be some attempts at putting limits on king daddy in terms of what is possible and you seem to be wanting to fight the various BTC price models to assign higher probabilities to downside (such as your suggestion that $52k or $42k is even decently likely) than what I would consider to be reasonable in terms of both my consideration that we are in an upwards price pressure posture including being in noman's land which largely gives some presumptions to $80k having high chances of being reached before $52k.., and yeah for sure nothing is inevitable or for sure and maybe even the odds are not very high that $80k would be reached before $52k.. in the ballpark of 53/47? or some other weighing of odds rather than proclaiming matters with high levels of certainty.
Of course we had these kind of down in the previous bull market cycles but we made at the same time much higher multiple of BTC price.
I doubt that bitcoin is limited in any kind of meaningful sense based on these kinds of assertions.. sure instead of getting 100x in 1-2 years like in 2013 or 78x in 2-3 years like 2017 we might only be capable of some smaller numbers, such as 50x.. and yeah we might already be well over 16x if we might be counting $4,200-ish as our 2019 starting point (or surely we could have different assessments regarding what is reasonable or feasible based on starting from different price points.. and some peeps might argue that $10k is our reasonable starting point or the previous ATH of $20k as reasonable starting off points, and I personally would claim that those higher number starting off points are not really representative of a more reasonable starting off point that would more likely be somewhere in the sub $10ks such as using bottom prices or even bases in which it could be argued that the current run started).
By the way, I also would suggest that this time does not even seem that much different in terms of outlining limitations because of some of the macrofactors involving money printing or even the level of financialization that bitcoin has been experiencing in recent times and further supported by some of the BIGGER players increasingly getting into the bitcoin space and making fundamental assessments of the solidity of bitcoin's investment thesis compared with other asset classes.
What I see on this run is that we go up quite slowly (and smaller multiple) BUT we make the same % of correction than the previous more explosives bullrun.
Sure you are free to come to whatever assessment that you like in terms of what you believe to be in the short to medium term bitcoin cards, yet from my perspective you seem to be both bearish on the upside and seemingly failing/refusing to give sufficient accounting for various seemingly credible BTC price projection models that would not give too much weight to either the top already being in or that we have already gone through our exponential price rise period for this cycle.. and sure I am repeating myself on this aspect and sure you seem to be downplaying such exponential upside potential for this cycle.
I could also proclaim that bitcoin does not work in the way that you seem to be ascribing because 1) we already had a hell of a pretty large price correction with the 56% correction and 2) large corrections become mostly justifiably likely when large upside has also happened... but hey, do what you like in terms of spinning your own model, even if some folks, including yours truly, would consider such a model to be a wee bit detached from how bitcoin works even while I would concede that anything is possible, even if I consider you to be describing a less likely scenario while suggesting that you consider such a scenario to be amongst the more likely of scenarios.
What I see too (and probably the good part) is there isn't any FOMO yet, we made very shy new ATH and we are staying not so far on the previous one. Should be strange to TOP the bull market on this kind of situation (even if we never know). Don't know if it's relevant, even the google trend (worldwide) on Bitcoin keyword is still very low.
Ok fair enough... we do seem to agree on this part.. and in that regard maybe at minimum each of us would conclude that something like a doubling of the current top (which would be something like $130k-ish) would have decent chances of happening for this cycle and we have not seen a kind of crazy-ass price moves, yet. Surely, I have reservations to presume anything too crazy in terms of tops, either, so I will grant that my assignment of probabilities does get increasingly less and less as we go up the spectrum of price possibilities.. but seems that I am a bit more receptive than you to some of the upside possibilities.. and you are likely assigning more weight than me to downside probabilities.
Accordingly, at this time, I probably have not moved very much off of my probability estimations from about 5 days ago (quoted below for ease of reference)...
Do you think we will see a 200K BTC within the next 4-5 months? I'm not so sure.
I hardly have any clue. Recently, I have provided my assignments of probabilities both in terms of price and in terms of timeline in the below two linked posts.. and sure even I might waffle from time to time, and reserve the right to change my opinion from time to time, too.
This post that I made about Price from about 8 days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876My post about price puts supra $200k at about 30.5% for this cycle, but it does not put the end of the cycle at 4-5 months.. but suggests a 95% chance that the end of the cycle would happen by the 3rd quarter of 2022.
This post that I made about time from a few days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58346117#msg58346117Furthermore, I stated in that post that I have about a 77.5% expectation that the cycle would end before the 2nd quarter of 2022... but what the fuck do I know.. I am just doing my best to put probabilities on various events.
Poll
