Pullbacks, doubt etc while we rise longer term is probably for the best and not getting 100k this year also I think is for the best.
A bit of a weird statement STT.. almost sounds like you are too prepared for DOWN.. or might I say insufficiently prepared for UP.
Yeah.. sure anything can happen, but suggesting that not getting $100k this year would be some kind of "good"... no no no.. not only "good" but instead "best" is a weird as fuck, especially for a supposed bitcoiner... who is supposedly also informed about the topic of bitcoin.
Actually, I would not necessarily claim that $100k has odds that are above 50/50, but I think that part of my issue is a desire to attempt to stay relatively conservative in my assigning of odds.. but gosh even if the odds might be in the 40% arena, that still seems to be bullish as fuck.
There have not been any facts or additional information to cause me to change my numbers, and I looked at my estimates from a couple/few weeks ago, and it looks like I am largely assigning 53% odds that BTC prices do not top above $100k.. but still I am both shooting those numbers out of my ass and trying to be realistic to my own sentiments as well, and 47% odds for $100k or greater does seem to be quite bullish, too...
Here's a clip of my recent reiterations of the odds for up/down topic, with links.
>>>>>>
............
Do you think we will see a 200K BTC within the next 4-5 months? I'm not so sure.
I hardly have any clue. Recently, I have provided my assignments of probabilities both in terms of price and in terms of timeline in the below two linked posts.. and sure even I might waffle from time to time, and reserve the right to change my opinion from time to time, too.
This post that I made about Price from about 8 days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876My post about price puts supra $200k at about 30.5% for this cycle, but it does not put the end of the cycle at 4-5 months.. but suggests a 95% chance that the end of the cycle would happen by the 3rd quarter of 2022.
This post that I made about time from a few days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58346117#msg58346117Furthermore, I stated in that post that I have about a 77.5% expectation that the cycle would end before the 2nd quarter of 2022... but what the fuck do I know.. I am just doing my best to put probabilities on various events.
<<<<
Even if you, STT, are NOT assigning lower numbers than me, you are stating pretty damned strong preferences that you believe that there is some kind of good/best to the bitcoin ecosystem to actually stay below $100k. Difficult to follow.. Difficult to follow.
Something tells me jjg may have an Amphetamine problem
I had to look up the word "Amphetamine," and sure, even if I were to not know the word would not exclude me from having a problem that fit within such descriptive.
I am wondering if I should admit or deny? I will consider the matter and potentially get back with you upon my discretion.
Either that, or "Try the decaf, dude"...
Now that is an easy one.
No need to look up nuttin.
But still the same answer. Will consider the matter...
Starting to feel that you guys (are you guys? or cats?) are so great (should I say the "best" thanks to STT?) for considering my situation with such seemingly deep concern(s).
Poll
