Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

This is the kind of thing where parts continue to be available forever and they are often interchangeable (standard) so it's probably worth to keep investigating a bit more. It just depends which of the bits are broken. When you say relay, do you mean thermostat? Or is it part of the pumping system?

I've now found that the three relays are indeed fried, along with some associated wiring, but I've now taken one of the relays out so I can see exactly what type it is:



And you're absolutely right Richy, they seem to very standard and still available, such as https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/non-latching-relays/2452087. So, I'm off to get three of them.....

I wish I knew more about electrical stuff. And lots of other things....

It looks like the coil connections show these burning/heat traces, that should not be as bad as when the conducting contacts look like that (when like this relay the pole/throw contact is rated at 30A@230V). That can happen when the coil gets too much voltage and the insulation between the coil wires burns out, hence reducing resistance and overheating until it's no more a coil but only a short with thin wires.
Though the negative side is, that power probably comes from a controller somewhere that decides when to power the furnace/heating element. It could well be that the controller itself setting those relays is damaged as well.

I assume your fuse blew from the incident when the relay burnt out like that, otherwise I would probably try to consult a professional electrician, if you just replace the relays then, things could go wrong in a much more bad way the second time, because burning wires in walls can really ruin your whole day.

Ofcourse thicker wires are always a good idea, though generally if the wiring is not too old and the fuse blew when the relay burnt out, the wiring should have enough spare capacity to not get damaged in any way. I agree with MoA here, if the wiring is not pre WWWII and the electrician who installed it is not a criminal twat and the fuse actually blew then there is no reason at all to be concerned about the wiring (at least not more than any other day).

And yeah, if you are not feeling confident changing the relays and switching the thing back on (meaning having an explanation on what went wrong in the first place), get the help of an electrician. With 230V or higher you often get only one single time to fuck things seriously up,
If you decide to go ahead anyway, do not just switch off the fuse that you think powers the furnace, measure that things have no more voltage before sticking your fingers in it. I mean it, a wrongly labelled fuse can kill you if you don't check. (i.e. Don't trust, verify!)

I have found in my life that I am pretty good in tolerating electric shocks but I got plenty of lucky occasions where some godness decided to warn me with flying sparks that I am about to touch a deadly powered contact, wire or whatever.

Be careful and good luck!

.

 I did a really good one with a 48 inch florescent bulb/tube. I replaced 3 on a 4 tube light went to do the 4th one all hot as it is easy to see the light is working. It was hot I was sweating. I had trouble fitting the 4th tube and getting it to light. So I was twisting it in and my left hand was close to the end near the socks and my right hand was close to the other socket. My hands were sweaty. I ran the power across my chest and felt it contract my heart.

Basically I paddled my chest/heart. About the worst way to shock yourself. Good electrical system in my heart or I would not be writing this as I type.  I no longer do any work on energized circuits.  Fool me once okay but not twice.

[Richy_T]

I just saw Dune: Part 1. I can't remember the previous movie so long ago, but this new one, of course has better CGI and giant worms.

The original had giant worms too. The CGI is better on the new one for sure but it seems to lack some soul. Though I was never really a fan of the Lynch one, it did some interesting things. I'm currently re-reading the book and it's pretty good.

[Richy_T]

It looks like the coil connections show these burning/heat traces, that should not be as bad as when the conducting contacts look like that (when like this relay the pole/throw contact is rated at 30A@230V).

I'd put money those are the conducting contacts. The empty parallel set are for a double pole setup.

I wouldn't be surprised if the fuse blew in the past and someone shoved a nail in there or something. Though fuses do sometimes only protect eventually. If there's no fuse then yikes!

[machasm]

And you're absolutely right Richy, they seem to very standard and still available, such as https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/non-latching-relays/2452087. So, I'm off to get three of them.....

I wish I knew more about electrical stuff. And lots of other things....

Good call in also replacing any wiring you see, even if it doesn't look fried (or too fried). With wiring, looks can be deceiving...

This is good advice - wiring that gets hot tends to break down, increasing resistance, increasing electrical load until something breaks - like your relays.  

Totally different situation but my Lotus used to eat alternators like they were going out of fashion, until we realised that the wiring was running too close to the manifold (mid-engine, packed engine bay, little space) the wiring was getting hot from the exhaust, starting to break down internally, increasing the load on the alternator until the alternator burnt out.  The solution was to splice in a new longer section to the loom and re-route the cabling to the alternator so it didn't get so hot.

Perhaps something similar happens in your furnace?

(Note: I am not an electrician and my comments needed to be treated as such!)

You know what LOTUS stands for
Lots
Of
Trouble
Usually
Serious

Had an Elise myself and it had its fair share of problems too.

[psycodad]

It looks like the coil connections show these burning/heat traces, that should not be as bad as when the conducting contacts look like that (when like this relay the pole/throw contact is rated at 30A@230V).

I'd put money those are the conducting contacts. The empty parallel set are for a double pole or possibly double throw setup.

Bah, smartass.    (Seriously, good find)
Good that I zoomed the picture before I accepted the bet  

You are right, A1 and A2 can be seen which are the coil contacts. On the plus side the controller will probably be fine, but on the negative side the heating element is eventually sinking way too much current and I would be a bit more concerned especially if no fuse blew.

[JayJuanGee]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

One more year?  Holy moley!

You are really rolling your own models, no?

Yeah, bearish, I know... But a realist too.

There's no point in sticking to some target ($100k+ in 2021), when said target becomes increasingly unreachable. PlanB's model is all nice & cute, and it could work under certain circumstances, but here we're talking about far too many uncertain parameters. Of course, this entire price dippening / suppressening / sidewaysening could just end up being a big outlier, and the price could spring back up at any time, reasserting PlanB's model. It's just that I don't currently see the dynamics of such a large UPpity action ($40k+) being able to fit inside the space on 1 month.

Early 2022? Likely.
Within 2022? A certainty (for me).

Yes.... but I was hung up on your assertion of "a year at most."  When i see such a specific statement in regards to time, I read it literally as having a start date at the time of the post and an end date one year later, which would be November 23, 2022... so getting to $100k at the end of that timeline surely seems to  either be some kind of new model, some BIG variation of existing models or just sloppy in terms of did you really mean "a year at most?"

Another thing is getting to supra $100k or the alternative prediction of figuring out what is going to be the top for this cycle.   I doubt also that you would be proclaiming that $100k would be the top - even if it were to come as late as November 2022  (is that even possible?).

Personally I doubt that any kind of delay into 2022 in respect to getting to supra $100k is anything bold enough to write home about, so my quibble is your getting into the second quarter or beyond for something as mediocre as $100k - without explaining MOAR better how you may have gotten there.

Another thing you seem to be treating some of the price prediction models a wee bit loosey goosey... so surely when we talk about some kind of small deviation from calendar year 2021 but then drag way out past the end of 2021 into the end of 2022, that just seems a step way too far for me in terms of attempting to either be rigorous in thinking or to really treat our currently valid and credible models with some kind of deference for the underlying data that support them ..and that does not mean that you have to kiss any PlanB rings or lick any guru deemed butt holes (yeah I went there.... not good for opsec for any purported guru or guru wanna be to be exposing such bodily parts to us mere plebs... hahahahahaha).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

ThErE iS nO INflATioN, iTs oNlY TEmPoRarY

[Hueristic]

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

This is the kind of thing where parts continue to be available forever and they are often interchangeable (standard) so it's probably worth to keep investigating a bit more. It just depends which of the bits are broken. When you say relay, do you mean thermostat? Or is it part of the pumping system?

I've now found that the three relays are indeed fried, along with some associated wiring, but I've now taken one of the relays out so I can see exactly what type it is:



And you're absolutely right Richy, they seem to very standard and still available, such as https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/non-latching-relays/2452087. So, I'm off to get three of them.....

I wish I knew more about electrical stuff. And lots of other things....

... that looks like you've had a quite substantial power surge or some other over-current situation and close to a fire even, it's quite likely fuses will be blown and other electrical bits might be blown/melted also

... you need an electrician to check the wiring if you're not confident doing electrical work, you don't need a plumber

... it's odd that it has been working fine since 1990 to get such a dramatic failure, maybe you had a lightning strike?

... or if these relays are controlling the power to the main heating element then that might be blown or shorted which caused the overcurrent that fried these relays but the fuses should have blown first and protected these

.... if these relays control the circulation pump then that could be blown also which caused the overcurrent but then same as above, fuses should have protected the relays

... unless it was lightning strike or power surge from the grid (how stable is the power in your area?) then something deeper is amiss ...

.... don't listen to these guys saying to replace the wiring which is a big job for an amateur, not a quick fix,  you just need to either to get this running again so you don't freeze or replace the whole system as you said earlier

... my advice at this point is get an electrician asap, doesn't need to be heating specialist even

Marcus is correct.

You more than likely have a short, possibly the element burned out and shorted.

If you replace those relays and fuses without finding the issue all you will get is another pile of melted relays and blown fuses.

Get someone that knows how to use a meter to shoot those lines.

Basically I paddled my chest/heart. About the worst way to shock yourself. Good electrical system in my heart or I would not be writing this as I type.  I no longer do any work on energized circuits.  Fool me once okay but not twice.

Nobody fears electricity more than an electrician.

It looks like the coil connections show these burning/heat traces, that should not be as bad as when the conducting contacts look like that (when like this relay the pole/throw contact is rated at 30A@230V).

I'd put money those are the conducting contacts. The empty parallel set are for a double pole setup.

I wouldn't be surprised if the fuse blew in the past and someone shoved a nail in there or something. Though fuses do sometimes only protect eventually. If there's no fuse then yikes!

Could be a slow burn fuse as well, people will pop those in when they have an issue with fuses popping rather than finding the underlining cause.


As a side note I would just like to say that if I had a purely electrical heating system I would absolutely have a backup.

I have only had to use my wood stove a few times over the decades but when I did it was a godsend.
* I burned the kitchen table and seats once during a snow storm with friends all around the stove.

[tertius993]

And you're absolutely right Richy, they seem to very standard and still available, such as https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/non-latching-relays/2452087. So, I'm off to get three of them.....

I wish I knew more about electrical stuff. And lots of other things....

Good call in also replacing any wiring you see, even if it doesn't look fried (or too fried). With wiring, looks can be deceiving...

This is good advice - wiring that gets hot tends to break down, increasing resistance, increasing electrical load until something breaks - like your relays.  

Totally different situation but my Lotus used to eat alternators like they were going out of fashion, until we realised that the wiring was running too close to the manifold (mid-engine, packed engine bay, little space) the wiring was getting hot from the exhaust, starting to break down internally, increasing the load on the alternator until the alternator burnt out.  The solution was to splice in a new longer section to the loom and re-route the cabling to the alternator so it didn't get so hot.

Perhaps something similar happens in your furnace?

(Note: I am not an electrician and my comments needed to be treated as such!)

You know what LOTUS stands for
Lots
Of
Trouble
Usually
Serious

Had an Elise myself and it had its fair share of problems too.

Oh for sure 😀 though I always thought a more accurate translation was Lots Of Trouble Usually Simple and cheap …

It certainly went wrong a lot but it was always cheap to fix, compared with my Porsche … that went wrong rarely but when it did it was always a massive bill!

[JayJuanGee]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.

I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.

75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.

No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.

Your ongoing sales of BTC this calendar year seems to have been keeping the BTC prices down this calendar year.. you fuck.  hahahahahaha


I know that I like to razz you but having a plan to sell BTC in the way that you are asserting that you are selling seems that it could be a bit problematic for some folks... ...

I don't want to get in the way of any of your details too much, but let's just say that the BTC price stays flat and maybe even down to $46k until the end of the calendar year (of course the BTC price could even go lower than $46k, yet I believe that $46k is extremely low enough to make the point that I am wanting to make), so you seem to be suggesting that no matter what you are selling whatever BTC you had at the beginning of your sales that would add up to 25% no matter what before the end of the calendar year.

So in that flat or going down to $46k-ish hypothetical that I just described, we could end up finishing this  cycle in 2022 - which could end up being $100k plus and even up to $1.5million-ish per coin by the end of the cycle (even with doggie ass prices until the end of this calendar year), and in that situation, you had already sold your 25% max in accordance with your seemingly rigid plan.. so you would not be selling any more BTC for the remaining of the cycle if something like the actual upside of the cycle were to drag out into 2022?  

Part of my point is that a kind of calendar based selling of BTC seems too rigid and even potentially prejudicial, even though for sure you can do whatever you like... in terms of feeling MOAR better.. financially and psychologically.. not quite a mindrust.. but gosh rigidity can sometimes remind us of what panickers do, too.

My suggestion would be to have an allowance that would allow up to 25% (your current number) or even 20% that might be for sure for this calendar year and then another amount that would be staggered at various points up to $1.5 million, in the event that something like $1.5 million were to happen this cycle or in a kind of rapid way.  I am not even saying that $1.5 million has any kind of meaningful chance of happening, but I am saying to be prepared for potential outrageous upside scenarios, and if you structure the whole matter well, you should be better off with a kind of ongoing incrementalist strategy rather than such seeming calendar year based rigiditiy.. King daddy no is not on no schedule.. last time I checked (not that any of us can speak on behalf of king daddy).

What happens frequently when you ladder up your sales based on price rather than time, then you still might see that you still have ONLY sold an additional 5% or 10% of your stash all the way up to something like $1.5 million  (yeah for you it might be more than 10% but it surely would not be zero, right?)....

I just did a quickie look at my round about laddering up sales projections outline up to $1.5 million (my outline currently goes up to $6 million) and I see that I would have only sold about 15% of my current stash as it now stands in total all the way up to that $1.5 million-ish price, even if the BTC price were to go shooting straight up from here (of course my current BTC sell orders ONLY currently go up to $150k-ish), and when the price versus amount of sales versus value of holdings for each is plotted out like that, even with the selling of 15% of the total quantity of BTC as compared to the quantity of BTC holdings currently in possession, the total dollar value of the remaining BTC portion is still growing multiple times faster than the amount being sold, so there is no real prejudicing in any kind of way... because the value of the BTC holdings would have gone up something like 22x - even with a 15% shaving off.. It is hard to find any kind of prejudicing from that kind of a layout, and it allows for ongoing personally tailored incrementalisms to feel good financially (with options) and psychologically (coming from the development of more options).

Sure, maybe your approach already accounts for various potentially higher BTC prices that could happen in this cycle?  but your description of stopping any kinds of sales no matter what at the end of this calendar year seems to be too much caught up on time deadlines rather than really attempting to grapple with practicality for ongoingly making sure that you are good in regards to various possible subsequent BTC behaviors.. including extracting some profits in the event that BTC prices go shooting up to high levels and then does not return to those high levels for 10 years or longer or ever for that matter.  

What I am saying is that even with a relatively modest and continuing selling of BTC in incremental ways at various points up the ladder that depend on BTC price rather than time is a way preferred method, even if you may well be shaving off decent amounts this year no matter what (including your decision to shave off up to 25% no matter what this calendar year).  Accordingly, there are still ways to get extra cash at various points along the way (Up), if that were to be needed, preferred, or just prudent preparations for the future that is far from certain no matter how comfy many of us might end up finding ourselves in terms of various allocations and reallocations that we have been making along the way, too.

Ok.  enough of my getting into your business.. yet surely, we are talking about this kind of topic in a public thread, so ideas of prudence, practicality and preparations are for others too who may also be in similar situations of deciding when to shave off, how much to shave off and under what circumstances.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.

I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.

75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.

No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.

Sounds like a solid plan, well executed. Below is a small critique (from a different perspective).

1. It is more relevant for those who don't have other investments. With bitcoin still appreciating nicely, what's the point of selling an asset that appreciates 100% a year and gain an asset (RE) with rents at about 5-7% a year (plus some appreciation)? Of course, if it is a diversification move, than it is another story.
2. I don't really see a point of being retired at 35. In most cases, it does not end up well, but of course, there are exceptions.
3. Paying off the mortgage and spending cash that could gain more than mortgage (3% or even below) also sounds like a move that is typically not advisable. It is more secure this way, of course.

To conclude: nicely done, but you will need to think a bit more as to how employ the cash generated. Does UK have cap gains taxes?
If so, i hope that they are more modest than they are projected to be here soon.

EDIT: btw, check out the fatfire reddit for tips on wealth

[JayJuanGee]

But mark my words Gold will drop in value and BTC will take it over = connected Dots.

oh gawd... 

You act like you are saying something new philip.

Currently gold is ONLY 10x higher market cap than bitcoin, even though bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold in terms of current valuations. .. It is not easy to figure an exact number regarding how much better bitcoin is than gold, but your merely asserting that bitcoin is going to reach gold parity seems to be an understatement and including that you are accounting that gold is going to lose to bitcoin .. which maybe is not outrageous in itself but comes off as even less bullish than attempting to make the assessments in current values.. even though we know that the value of a lot of assets are going to change and some will simultaneously exists but likely hold their value in different ways, especially since bitcoin does seem to be a much more efficient storer of value for a lot of asset classes, and not just gold... I am not sure if I need to elaborate more.... just to question the more narrow point that you seemed to have had been making.

[Arriemoller]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

Weird, what's wrong with it? If it's gas and the basso valve has failed they can be plumbed around with a new electronic basso wired in. Had that done on my 50 year old furnace, works fine.

If it's oil, and the line outside is not insulated then insulate it with a nice heater wire next to it and the oil will not freeze up/turn to goo. Dealt with that one with a friend as well.

This stuff ain't rocket science.

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

I'm going with the last option, since I've found somewhere that sells a modern version: https://www.heatraesadia.com/products/heating-and-ventilation/electric-flow-boilers/amptec#productgallery4

...but trying to find an engineer to fit it is proving to be the difficulty - plumbers think it's a job for an electrician and electricians think the opposite - all in a rural location!  Everyone else in the area has oil fuelled furnaces, but that would require a complete overhaul of my system.

All a bit of a ball-ache. I appreciate the input from you all though.

Why don't you put in a air/water heat pump, my neighbor had a system like yours and when it broke down he put in a heat pump, he said it saved him a lot of money on the electricity bill.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

[OutOfMemory]

Why don't you put in a air/water heat pump, my neighbor had a system like yours and when it broke down he put in a heat pump, he said it saved him a lot of money on the electricity bill.

Good idea, all in all. I use a water-heatpump myself for the home, but this is a different story, because i always have about 8-9°C water temperature down in 128 meters below the ground.
In contrast, these air-water pumps perform pretty well in environmental temperatures above -5° Celsius, but if you get below that, their efficiency is degrading.
Another problem: Infrasonic noise. Some people suffer from hum that is produced and resonating in walls and/or ceilings in the right distance (single or multiple wavelength of the hum frequency), i'd recommend some sort of anti-vibration mount, or placing the thing further away from the house, with a solid structure in between, down a hill for example.

My three cents.

[Arriemoller]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.

I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.

75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.

No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.

Well for me I have not sold anything yet, except for what little I have sold by using my Binance card.
I still believe there will be a blow of top in late December or early January. We have been following the pattern from the two previous cycles so far, I see no reason why we wouldn't keep doing it.
Remember, we have not had any type of real top yet, and I mean the type where you make a couple of years worth of salary over night a couple of nights in a row and then suddenly it drops like a stone. Before that occurs we have not reached the top as far as I'm concerned.
Still bloody annoying though.

[Arriemoller]

Why don't you put in a air/water heat pump, my neighbor had a system like yours and when it broke down he put in a heat pump, he said it saved him a lot of money on the electricity bill.

Good idea, all in all. I use a water-heatpump myself for the home, but this is a different story, because i always have about 8-9°C water temperature down in 128 meters below the ground.
In contrast, these air-water pumps perform pretty well in environmental temperatures above -5° Celsius, but if you get below that, their efficiency is degrading.
Another problem: Infrasonic noise. Some people suffer from hum that is produced and resonating in walls and/or ceilings in the right distance (single or multiple wavelength of the hum frequency), i'd recommend some sort of anti-vibration mount, or placing the thing further away from the house, with a solid structure in between, down a hill for example.

My three cents.

True, it's efficiency drops when it gets really cold and might even use 100% electricity with no addition from the air, but the system he has now is 100% electricity all the time.
Never thought about infra sound, should be able to fix that by not mounting the outside part directly to the wall.