Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

i hit three on ckpool . but as partners in all three hits.

2 of them were in the same one day rental.



and as for giving daily odds vs one block odds most solo miners do not mine for a block and then stop.

most of us if solo mining do so for a day.

or if they rent the hash maybe 0.01 btc

which is usually close to 6.25/.01 or 625 to one if the rental was at a fair price.

[1714236763]

1714236763

[1714236763]

1714236763

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[siera]

…..

That's what happened to the lucky miner who got 6.25 BTC so soon. It was pure luck. The probability of you and me getting this lucky is practically zero, as was his.

Few understand this.

Yup.
Hence mining pools.

Fun fact…
I used to solo mine a shitcoin that could only be solo mined, no pools.
I did okay. Usually found about 5 blocks a day on average (about 2$ worth)with a 750ti.
Traded em all for bitcoin at end of every month. Fun stuff and kept me amused…

You suck!!!!!!

I think this is the shortest post from JaY in 8 years of lukring

[JayJuanGee]

This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.

You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.

Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day

If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.

Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...

Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH  or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)

So yes it is a once in a life time hit.

Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards).  

Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably  profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins.  

I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).

Edited:  Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.

[Syke]

Playing Black jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a weekly or maybe monthly basis or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money.  I suppose if you cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then likely you would have to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.

My favorite pool back in the day was p2pool because it was decentralized. Do those sort of pools still exist?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.

You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.

Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day

If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.

Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...

Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH  or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)

So yes it is a once in a life time hit.

Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards).  

Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably  profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins.  

I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).

Edited:  Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.

I was never game enough to go solo... i knew the odds were stacked against me... the thought of ZERO returns was enough to shelve that idea.  Considering the miners only really had a profitable shelve life of about 3-6 months or so. So you needed to make cost and have something to show for it!

I think anything at the casino is better olds than 1,400,000 to 1.

I was thinking about philipma1957 post earlier, and the 10,000 to 1 chances. i am still not convinced that is the correct way to frame the odds.

The more you play something the more chances of winning right? Gambler Fallacy?

Imagine we toss a coin, whats the odd of it coming up heads? 50/50 right. If you keep flipping does the odds change? I don't know, maybe there is a statistician who can better explain it to me, i just feel 10,000 to 1 is not a right representation of the odds of hitting a block regardless of time/duration.

[Hueristic]

…..

That's what happened to the lucky miner who got 6.25 BTC so soon. It was pure luck. The probability of you and me getting this lucky is practically zero, as was his.

Few understand this.

Yup.
Hence mining pools.

Fun fact…
I used to solo mine a shitcoin that could only be solo mined, no pools.
I did okay. Usually found about 5 blocks a day on average (about 2$ worth)with a 750ti.
Traded em all for bitcoin at end of every month. Fun stuff and kept me amused…

You suck!!!!!!

I think this is the shortest post from JaY in 8 years of lukring

I believe his shortest is a resounding "No", or was it a yes? shit I forget.

[Biodom]

This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.

You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.

Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day

If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.

Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...

Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH  or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)

So yes it is a once in a life time hit.

Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards).  

Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably  profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins.  

I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).

Edited:  Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.

<snip>i just feel 10,000 to 1 is not a right representation of the odds of hitting a block regardless of time/duration.

it's not 1:10000 per block in his example, it is 1:10000 per day.
There are about 6X24=144 blocks a day, so the chance per block is 1:1440000 (one in 1.44 mil blocks) in his example.
@jjg..almost no one is mining solo, true...that was just one person who hit the jackpot.
Or, maybe, he had 101 machines with 100 mining in a pool and 1 "playing lottery"...this is not possible to determine. Some old timers do this kind of thing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[psycodad]

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

No, your chances of hitting a block are not affected by your internet connection, but indeed it can affect how quick you can distribute a found block to your peers. I admit that is a bit of hairsplitting around words, if you phrased your question as "play a role in getting the reward for a found block" the answer would be yes.

So if for example Alice and Bob find a block at the very same time (same milisecond), and Alice has a satellite connection with ~1s roundtrip while Bob has fiber to the home with a roundtrip of <10ms, Bob has much better chances to have his block accepted and being built upon by other miners/pools.

Also if you mine on a pool and the network connection to the pool has a lot of delay/roundtrip you probably waste some hashpower after submitting a share and before receiving new work from the pool. Let's use above example and assume you submit a share every 25s, that is Alice loses ~1s every 25s waiting for new work, while Bob loses 5-10ms every 25s waiting for new work from the pool. So Alice loses ~4% while Bob only wastes ~0.02-0.04% of their hashrate (if my math is not on meth).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

No, your chances of hitting a block are not affected by your internet connection, but indeed it can affect how quick you can distribute a found block to your peers. I admit that is a bit of hairsplitting around words, if you phrased your question as "play a role in getting the reward for a found block" the answer would be yes.

So if for example Alice and Bob find a block at the very same time (same milisecond), and Alice has a satellite connection with ~1s roundtrip while Bob has fiber to the home with a roundtrip of <10ms, Bob has much better chances to have his block accepted and being built upon by other miners/pools.

Also if you mine on a pool and the network connection to the pool has a lot of delay/roundtrip you probably waste some hashpower after submitting a share and before receiving new work from the pool. Let's use above example and assume you submit a share every 25s, that is Alice loses ~1s every 25s waiting for new work, while Bob loses 5-10ms every 25s waiting for new work from the pool. So Alice loses ~4% while Bob only wastes ~0.02-0.04% of their hashrate (if my math is not on meth).

Yeah that's what I meant, thanks for reminding me of the various issues.

[BitcoinBunny]

She should stick to bad amateur porn instead of peddling shitcoins.

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/kardashian-west-mayweather-sued-over-170000342.html

[eXPHorizon]

Good Day to ya all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19gq3Soo7ms

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Thought CB was going to print out 44k range as 43914 price waves were recorded and only 86 was short but CB plays that backward move again and take us back to $43k still ocean

No need for some another TA analysis and here is one funny meme for the same



Is this right LFC_Bitcoin?