This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.
You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.
Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day
If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.
Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...
Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)
So yes it is a once in a life time hit.
Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards).
Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins.
I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool. This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).
Edited: Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.
<snip>i just feel 10,000 to 1 is not a right representation of the odds of hitting a block regardless of time/duration.
it's not 1:10000 per block in his example, it is 1:10000 per day.
There are about 6X24=144 blocks a day, so the chance per block is 1:1440000 (one in 1.44 mil blocks) in his example.
@jjg..almost no one is mining solo, true...that was just one person who hit the jackpot.
Or, maybe, he had 101 machines with 100 mining in a pool and 1 "playing lottery"...this is not possible to determine. Some old timers do this kind of thing.I do that in a modified version.
two very small pools not solo mmpool.org and Laurentia.org
I mine 20th at each one I get a share of the pool if we hit the block, but the pools are so small it is a big share.
and I mine 1300th at a pool that gives daily payouts.
look here I am in 3rd place
https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/minersI get 0.75 btc if the pool hits a block.
This is a modified hodl method. where you hodl the potential payout. not the actual coins
pretend we have 393th as the team that is 1,440,000/393 = 3664 to 1 chance the block hit 1 block today I get .75 x 43700 = 32,775 for playing the pool all day and hitting a block
what is my cost 15 th x .2284 = $3.426 if it was in sure earnings pool
well I have 1300 x .2284 = $296.92 in the sure earnings pool
who cares about the $3.43 I risk daily for a 32,775 payout
check those odds 32,775/3.43 = I am getting a payout of 9555 to 1 and what are the odds of hitting this 3664 to 1
so this is a low cost high risk high return investment.
Basically for today I play a 3664 to 1 shot and if I hit I get paid 9555 to 1
one could argue my math is wrong but it is based on a 144 block day not 1 block. and it is based on the 15th loss of mining income with free power. which is $3.43
you could argue I should count the power cost for that 15th in my case it is $1.56
which means I spend $1.56 to do this each day not the $3.43 I would have collected or you could could use 3.43-1.56 = 1.87
but 3.43 cost vs 1.87 cost vs 1.56 cost means I did the least favorable interpretation
32,775 payout
32,775/3.43 = 9555 to 1
32,775/1.87 = 17,526 to 1
32,775/1.56 = 21,009 to 1
I ask anyone who would not want to play 1.56 a day for 32,775 if the odds of collecting are 3664 to 1
or play 1.87 a day for the same 32,775 at 3,664 to 1
or play 3.43 a day to get 32,775 at 3,664 to 1
you would be surprised how many people do not understand and argue that I am wrong.
in each and every case I give I am simply doing a low cost high risk high yield investment that over time should score bigly.
Of course it does not mean it will it only means the odds favor the play.
unlike a casino where the odds do not favor the play
mining = investing odds are in your favor
casino = gambling odd are against you
viabtc.com the payout is steady
1300th earns 296 a day pre power cost.
this is a high cost low risk low yield investment
my cost to get the 296 = 50% or I net 148 a day very sure very steady subject to price of btc and the difficulty.
My gear cost is now 0 my power and infrastructure cost is always 50% of the coin mined. so when bears wake up I still earn when bulls are running my host does better than I do.
but in 2018 and 2019 and 1/2 of 2020 the bear was very nasty my deal worked well.
Back to solo mining or tiny pool mining
why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining. and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.
Poll
