Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Been thinking a bit, now that European countries are starting to to give up and say "fuck it, Covid is just another flu infection from now on", how are countries like China and New Zealand going to cope with that?
Are they going to stay in self isolation for ever?
They have to accept reality at some point and let the virus in.

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[ImThour]

I think I just saw a bullish pattern 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Doing a better job here of digging out from under the snow than Bitcoin is doing moving up in price... currently $41620USD/$52086CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Yawn.

Annoying price of BTC for long term hodlers….

Some did sold some at good/reasonable prices compared with now.

But to sit on a load of cash with non intentions not really the best thing imo.

Though I understand some would like to buy on the cheap, but now price isn’t yet cheap enough to rebuy, maybe if sold at the ATH-ish, other problem is people who haven’t sold any or very low numbers are a bit stuck as well cause if they want something a little more expensive, then it surely isn’t the price to sell atm…

Struggle of a hodlers life ….

Btc to cheap to sell or to high to buy back….  

Sounds more like the struggle of a tarder's life.

Hodlers simply buy whenever they can and sell only when they must... regardless of the price. Much less stress.

Much more profit.

That's more succinctly put than how I had responded.

I was going to say something regarding the trading angle, but it seems that I had kind of gotten lost in my own examples of variable types of HODLers/accumulators... but the essence of the matter would be that historically people who largely accumulated and HODLed their bitcoin would have had a tendency to gravitate towards NOT worrying too much about swings in price.. - even though surely it could take more than one cycle or perhaps even two or more to get to a place in which less and less worry would develop regarding the ups and downs of the price.. .

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.

One of the benefits of making incentivizing people to live paycheck to paycheck, I guess.

FTFY...

The incentive is to spend your fiat as quickly as you get it because even in a few weeks it may well not be worth as much as it was.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?

Yes

[OgNasty]

The news today of Intel getting into the mining chip game didn't seem to have an immediate impact on the market, but this is the sort of news that give other companies the warm and fuzzy feeling inside.  I could see other companies who have had "mining chips primarily sourced from China" on the CONS side of their presentation now have something to put on the PROS side.  A 200+ billion dollar company getting into Bitcoin mining is a pretty good signal that it's going to be big business for some time to come.  For years we've heard about how Bitcoin mining wasn't a big enough slice of pie for companies like Intel to care about.  Today, that is no longer true.  Absolutely amazing.  This has potential to be a price catalyst.

[somac.]

The news today of Intel getting into the mining chip game didn't seem to have an immediate impact on the market, but this is the sort of news that give other companies the warm and fuzzy feeling inside.  I could see other companies who have had "mining chips primarily sourced from China" on the CONS side of their presentation now have something to put on the PROS side.  A 200+ billion dollar company getting into Bitcoin mining is a pretty good signal that it's going to be big business for some time to come.  For years we've heard about how Bitcoin mining wasn't a big enough slice of pie for companies like Intel to care about.  Today, that is no longer true.  Absolutely amazing.  This has potential to be a price catalyst.

When we have bearish sentiment good news never moves the market. Whereas bearish or bullish market sentiment and FUD always moves the market. Never understood this, but I guess it can just be put down to people being idiots.

[JayJuanGee]

So the punchlines from the presentation seem to be that Tether is supposedly insufficiently backed, filled with a bunch of disingenuine actors who are largely engaged in Ponzi scheme behaviors and could implode at any moment - taking the rest of bitcoin/crypto with it (or at least dealing a considerable blow to bitcoin/crypto). Another point seems to be that many of us in the bitcoin/crypto space are not taking this seriously enough, yet I am confused regarding what actions we are supposed to be taking?  Demand the auditing of Tether?  lobby for their prosecution?  Surely, there are a lot of governmental actors who would just love to take down tether, but the NY settlements seem to show that even the US Govt does not feel that they have enough ammunition to really take down Tether, and instead seems like settlements just allows for some abilities to have continuing ways to interfere with Tether with ongoing fines and ways to attempt to "keep Tether in check."

What we can do about it is just not park our capitol in it.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fed has its tendrils in bitfinex and tether to the root right now.

and that is why even though the NY AG specifically stated there are provable times tether is fractional reserve he would just fine them and ban New Yorkers from using them therefore doing his due diligence.

Remember it was a state attorney general that levied the fines and findings not the FED.

I doubt that it is good to remove adversariness from your mental framework and presumptively conclude that the FEDs are involved and controlling Bitfinex/Tether.

Sure, we might be able to presume that Bitfinex/Tether has to do some dancing to keep operating and to keep from getting harassed/shut down, but I doubt that the FED holds as many cards as you are presuming them to hold or that the Feds are actually permitted within the Bitfinex/Tether insides.... yeah.. we do not know for sure.. but presuming that much coziness seems a stretch.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[PoolMinor]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

....

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether.  

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg?t=136

The warning has already been noted. Bitfinex volume much larger over the last 3+ months.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

[JayJuanGee]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

I understand that you did not ask me...  


but...



The company has other assets besides bitcoin.

The last update was that their average cost per bitcoin that they purchased was less than $32k


If you want to own bitcoin, it is best to buy bitcoin directly rather than a company that happens to own a lot of bitcoin, even though for sure, there are some entities that cannot buy bitcoin directly, so getting exposure to bitcoin by owning MSTR could be a decently viable strategy and of course, you have exposure to other things that Microstrategies is doing and owning... even though in recent times, they (especially Saylor) seems to have quite a bit of ability to focus on bitcoin related matters... and he seems to know what he is doing, even though for sure, he seems a bit willing to gamble quite a bit on having a variety of ways of exposing his company (and even himself) to bitcoin - aka a vehicle that is currently facilitating the greatest wealth transfer in history.

[modrobert]

When stock market crash so does Bitcoin price.

I had a problem understanding this at first, but seems to be an unfortunate reality to some degree, perhaps related to previous recent posts.

[JayJuanGee]

When stock market crash so does Bitcoin price.

I had a problem understanding this at first, but seems to be an unfortunate reality to some degree, perhaps related to previous recent posts.

Zooming out might help ur lil selfie to understand the situation a wee bit MOAR better - even if there seems to be a lot of short-term correlations.... but hey, there are lot of people who believe that bitcoin is correlated to the stock market and other seemingly quasi-random macro-economic factors, and many of these correlation spotting peeps are likely missing out being on the beneficiary side of the greatest wealth transfer in history..

Hopefully you, modrobert,  are not one of those missing out peeps (either by underpreparing for UPpity or waiting for down or some other potentially personally prejudicing tactic that causes you to under appreciate the value of bitcoin) - even if your brain is coming off as a wee bit muddled at the moment... hahahahahahaha  #nohomo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:

[

There seems like the value of BTC is actually in line with the value of the share itself.
In a previous version, I had an outdated shares count, sending the computations off.

I also added a double check computation, yielding same results, that might be similar to your computation.
Also, you have to use a little bit of caution when comparing “live” bitcoin prices with static share prices (Nasdaq close price).

EDIT: corrects an outdated share count generating wrong results

[OutOfMemory]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

....

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether.  

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

For me, BTC-USD is taxable, while BTC-USDT is not.
Keep an eye on national tax law 

[modrobert]

When stock market crash so does Bitcoin price.

I had a problem understanding this at first, but seems to be an unfortunate reality to some degree, perhaps related to previous recent posts.

Zooming out might help ur lil selfie to understand the situation a wee bit MOAR better - even if there seems to be a lot of short-term correlations.... but hey, there are lot of people who believe that bitcoin is correlated to the stock market and other seemingly quasi-random macro-economic factors, and many of these correlation spotting peeps are likely missing out being on the beneficiary side of the greatest wealth transfer in history..

Hopefully you, modrobert,  are not one of those missing out peeps (either by underpreparing for UPpity or waiting for down or some other potentially personally prejudicing tactic that causes you to under appreciate the value of bitcoin) - even if your brain is coming off as a wee bit muddled at the moment... hahahahahahaha  #nohomo

I wasn't thinking about current price specifically, rather about future stock market crash(es) to come, and the relationship with Bitcoin. My reasoning was flawed that somehow Bitcoin would be unaffected, or even turn upwards during crashes, but if people insist in buying BTC indirectly through stock market, then it will be correlated.