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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368403 times)
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JayJuanGee
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January 22, 2022, 06:02:24 AM

As JJG says you are not prepared for uppity.

This is a good chance to do exactly that.

Something is wrong with your statement, philip.


For sure, people get nervous when the BTC price is moving down a lot... even your post from earlier, you are suggesting that wwe are in a kind of early 2018 period, and you even said that you expect the BTC prices to continue to go down.. so with that, then why would you buy now and why not just wait for the price to go lower?

I do recognize when we get a lot of down momentum, we cannot really know when the down is going to stop... so sure, I do not mind just continuing to buy on the way down, because you never know when it is going to reverse.. yet it seems that if I thought that the price was going to continue to go down, then I might just wait.. and I hate doing that, and that is one of the reasons for just ongoing DCAing rather than trying to figure out how much further is the price going to go down.. or when it might stop going down.

Looks a lot like 2018 and that means get ready for rising difficulty and dropping prices.

Indeed.  The 4-year cycle didn't play out exactly like the previous 2, but it certainly rhymed.  No reason to expect we won't see a long slide down to $10K over the next 2-3 years as a result.  I hope not, but that can't be ignored.

hahahahaha

Maybe since both of you are miners, you are both deluded into thinking that bitcoin gives shits about the hashrate?

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


I will agree with you that $10k is possible.. but holy fucking shit, you likely have less than a 5% chance to get to the 200-week moving average which is currently around $19,200 and it is moving up pretty damned fast... so seems pie in the sky to both be considering prices that are more than 50% lower than the 200-week moving average.. and maybe we could give you the benefit of the doubt that you are refering to a possible spike rather than sustainable.. but still overly pie in the sky bearish, for sure.   

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I will grant you that the 200-week moving average may well move up more slowly than it did in 2021 (it moved up 132% in 2021 - from $8,282 on January 20, 2021 to $19,200 on January 20, 2022)... ... so yeah.. that is a bit much of a move up of the 200-week moving average in one year...

For now, I'm on capitulation watch.  So far the volume on this drop below $40K is less than the volume that dropped us below $50K, so I'm not sure we've seen the bottom yet.  The dead cat bounce will hopefully get us back up to retest $50K and give some people an opportunity to do some cashing out, but that might be a pipe dream.

You may well be right about our having had entered into a bear market, but you are likely premature.. we will have to see how it plays out in the coming 1-2 months...,. and yeah.. fair assessment regarding the volume levels and there not being any kind of clear bounce off of a bottom... how low to go? who knows?  bottom not yet in.. sure, fair enough.

My hopes are that we jump back above $53K on some good news and can resume the upward rise.  

 I am glad that you have not written off that possibility, which still seems at least 50% if not more.

My thoughts are telling me we'll see a sub $30K Bitcoin before the bleeding stops, and then likely a slow bleed that could potentially last years as value is extracted from Bitcoin by those who are overextended to that asset class (probably all of us).

Speak for yourself regarding being overextended.... Maybe you should shave off a wee bit more, just so that you are not so overextended?  sure, you would rather shave on a bounce rather than shaving on the way down, right?

Desperately looking for a bottom... but can't find any so far... no real bounces so far too...  Angry HODL!
In my bitter experience I can say that one big crash is immediately followed by another so I expect support at 28/31к. But I am optimistic, and I think that we will soon fly in the other direction [but not as soon as it might seem] as BTC is just entering the oversold zone, [In order not to repeat myself, I will quote what I wrote yesterday].

[...] And although I am not a financial analyst, in order to refute your arguments, I am still not sure about the reality of those easy money that you are talking about and, as a result, about the capitalization of the crypto market, since I am convinced that the turtle always wins the race. But I agree with the statement regarding your potential expectations of market behavior after panic selling, given that not so long ago [in March 2020] we saw a massive dump of liquid assets, including S&P500, followed by a triple ATH. Although I do not rule out the opposite, because I do not remember that the interests of the majority would ever prevail or at least mirror the idea of ​​a bearish or bullish trend.

I 'm not sure if what you wrote makes sense.

Fair enough that we might be oversold, but weren't we oversold while we were in the $42k to $43k yesterday, and then we got another $6k to $7k additional correction from there?   I am not really disputing either that once momentum changes (if it changes), then there can be a certain amount of UP momentum that comes just from the fact that it reverses and then just keeps going UP (until it doesn't).. .. just like we may well have the situation in which it just keeps going DOWN, until it doesn't... but when is that going to be?  the doesn't part.
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January 22, 2022, 07:01:23 AM


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January 22, 2022, 07:04:26 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)

I hadn't checked my stonks as work is getting crazier and crazier (and money should partly come with it, but I'm starting to regret my previous position where I could surf the web all day...).

Surely enough they're down too, not as much as BTC, but they hadn't gone up that much either (my company is a dividend company not a growth one).

I've had little time to figure out how to buy a bit more than my usual trading, to buy the dip, I just created an account on localbitcoins, any good/bad XP with this ?

I used to use LocalBitcoins for in-person transactions.. but they stopped the ability to do in-person transactions in the USA in about mid-2019.. so I don't necessarily recommend their other modes of transacting.. but maybe you are in a place in which LocalBitcoins can still facilitate in-person transactions?

Btc down  Cry
https://imgur.com/a/MnwrYZ0   


Elonmusk Today. LIVE

I will requote you so that your image can be seen, since there's nothing wrong with the table of historical BTC "days above" prices...

Not sure why we give very many shits in this here thread about "live Elon?"

Still, you should buy when it starts going back up, NOT while it is going down.
I don't know about bitcoin (perhaps it is unique), but buying any other asset when it is going down is a sure path to ruin..you just never know when it is going to stop.
Well, if you mechanically DCA, maybe OK, especially for indexes, but then you shouldn't increase or decrease your DCA-ing based on your price perception.
The latter could be erroneous.

You have too many assumptions in your statement Biodom, and really it seems that you don't know what the fuck you are talking about in your ongoing hesitancies to actually act rather than placing so much emphasis on waiting that likely has not faired to well for you in the stocking up on BTC arena. 

Maybe that is part of the reason that you had been spending so much time sitting on your hands between 2014 and now rather than just regularly buying BTC.

I will just state briefly that if any of us is in BTC accumulation stage, then we have to assess our own situations, and likely DCA is the most powerful of the strategies, and of course, that can be supplemented with buying on dips and lump sum buying too.. I am not exactly in DCA myself.. so my system is one of maintenance.. so even if I say what I did (buying down from $60k-ish to $35k, so far) that might not exactly apply to someone else who might not be even close to the same as me and including not being in a kind of maintenance stage....

I surely would not conclude that there is no value in considering various kinds of BTC accumulation strategies from what I am doing now and what I had historically done, so I do not necessarily assert that people should do exactly what I am doing, even though I attempt to talk about the various strategies of DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing..

Now if you are referring to my earlier post in which I stated that I had four buy orders fill between $39k to $35k in the last 24 hours, then your suggestion to wait presumes too much, and surely if you are going to give some kind of BTC maintenance or accumulation strategy, you might need to outline your suggested strategy a wee bit better and within a context.. to merely assert that it is problematic to buy on the way down and to buy on the way up instead seems to be filled with non-contextualized nonsense and your desires to just spin your own nonsense facts.. what else is new?...

Yeah, you want to suggest the timing of the BTC price market to get the best BTC purchase prices, but how are we going to know when to adjust our buy orders in that way.... without some context?  and is that what I am doing?  is that the point that I was attempting to make?  Oh no you, Biodom, have a better suggestion, no?

For sure, there are various levels of need to study the BTC price and to attempt to predict direction (which i do not do that, even though that is what you are suggesting that peeps should be doing, right?)...   I have asserted many times that I believe that it is quite difficult to predict short term BTC price directions, and it is even worse to temper your behaviors on such prediction attempts, and so my system does not really have too much of any component that involves either attempting to predict the BTC price direction or to create actions that are dependent on such predictions...   As you likely realize I have created a system to avoid those kinds of futile attempts at price predictions, even though I play around with such price predictions as a hobby but my financial and/or psychological well-being do not depend on those price predictions playing out in any direction that I anticipate... and you know that.. but you continue to fight it.. right? 

By the way, I am pretty sure that my buy orders between $39k and $35k were largely already set in early September 2021 after the BTC price went above $46k - otherwise maybe the one buy order at $39k might have been reset after it got filled in mid September 2021 from that correction that happened around that time. 

In any event the system that I employ has a context and it is working quite well without your nonsense and mostly out of context second-guessing that I have continued to criticize your likely ongoing paralysis and failure/refusal to sufficiently stack BTC because you have ongoingly been so preoccupied that there might be a dip.. that does not always come to bear.. if we were waiting for your dips to play out, we likely would still be waiting at $10k with our hands between our legs or whatever you had been expecting the BTC price to NOT get above with your ongoing negativities that you try to later say that you still profited even though you failed/refused to sufficiently stock up BTC at that time and at previous times, and surely when we went on our 6x to 7x journey between September 2020 and April 20921 and again between August 2021 and November 2021... you were too busy thinking about down in order to adequately and sufficiently prepare yourself for UP... probably you were in the same level of paralysis in early to mid 2019 when we got our 3.5x appreciation from $4,200 to $13,880.
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January 22, 2022, 07:31:11 AM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

In my bitter experience I can say that one big crash is immediately followed by another so I expect support at 28/31к.

The real support is the number of pages in WO.

Confirmed it last summer when we dipped to 28600.

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January 22, 2022, 07:34:11 AM

While we talk about the dips this guy is utilising the funds to fund every dip to have more funds in the end.



Another one for really some discounted prices that might not get anytime soon once we take off to the moon journey.

So stack sats and buy the dips :


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January 22, 2022, 07:59:58 AM

...

JJG #603621

I started my real sales (joining Gemini to do so) in Jan 2021, I sold in small pieces from ~$40,000 down to some $30,000, up to that local peak of ~$64,000, down to $40,000, some up near the ATH of ~$66,000 and small amounts afterwards.  Average: some $42,000 and change (so not the best timing, it's all on my spreadsheet for the IRS).  Long term gains.  Smiley

In retrospect, it looks like I sold a bit too much, so I decided this year that if/when the price went below my 2021 average sale amount, that I would buy a smidge.  I'd like to get my BTC balance a little bit higher, so if we go down, I will buy poco-a-poco until I feel like I'm done.

This is actually pretty similar to what I did back in 2017 and 2018, I sold bits off (actually I traded BTC for gold, the only way to easily capture my gains at that time for me) as BTC was running up hard, and a bit on the downslope after the 2017 peak.  I did buy later, in 2018 and subsequent years, as the price went down in the Crypto Winter.  THIS time I may have jumped the gun re buying (too soon?), but so what.

As I have written before, BTC has been extremely good to my family.  I will have a nice Cap Gain tax for our buds there at .gov.

So, it's all good.  My "DCA methodology" is not really that, but fairly similar, similar enough.  I have no idea how long it will/may take for me to start selling again, check with me once we reach, say $80,000...  If it works out like 2017/2018 and 2021, then great.  If it doesn't, my gains are still far more than I invested.  And much of those gains are already locked up for our two very young grandsons.


Edited for clarity

Edit 2.  Yes, by happy chance I recently did get a monetary gift, that made my buying decision a little easier.

Fair enough...some of the long-term capital gains could make our current prices break even prices (that is if you are able to get the best capital gains of merely 15%), so yeah, selling at $42k and buying back at $35.7k is almost completely taxes.. Of course you had a basis in there too that was higher than $0.... ... Anyhow, yeah, your profits are likely not the greatest if we presume selling $42k and then rebuying at around $35.7k or perhaps lower... even though sure, the initial sale had decent profits, and at the same time, I will surely take your representations that you feel that you are profiting quite stupendously from a lot of your earlier decisions related to your chosen levels of bitcoin exposure... 
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January 22, 2022, 08:01:23 AM


Explanation
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January 22, 2022, 08:31:20 AM

team hodl! Cool



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January 22, 2022, 09:01:32 AM


Explanation
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January 22, 2022, 09:57:25 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Expect price reversal from $31k.


Weekly RSI it is not yet at 2020 Covid crash level, it is possible.

This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation.

I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020.
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January 22, 2022, 10:01:23 AM


Explanation
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January 22, 2022, 10:03:46 AM

RIP 35k  Smiley This slowly bleeding is what is painful. I wish there was a hard dump down to 29.5k and then some kind of relief.
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January 22, 2022, 10:04:01 AM

Someone pass me a parachute
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January 22, 2022, 10:07:17 AM

We are all going to DIE!!!
Well not now - mentally already dead- physically soonish  Shocked
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January 22, 2022, 10:14:27 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

We are all going to DIE!!!
Well not now - mentally already dead- physically soonish  Shocked

I sure hope this marks the bottom! Things are getting a little wild in the short term. When people start screaming we’re all going to die that has got to be a buy signal. Lol

Apparently $34K is the we’re all going to die level. I hope it holds. Smiley

Don’t fret too much. It’s just numbers on a screen after all.
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January 22, 2022, 10:17:25 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Copetech (1)

Bottoms up? Old 12 month+ volume point of control to the rescue imo. It's nice to be able to feel bullish again now that $40K has been wiped out  Smiley



Not convinced we're gonna spend multiple months below $40K as we've already done this before. Plus if we do, more likely $30K will break imo.
More than anything, just glad we got out the $40K to $46K no mans land. That was a complete waste of everyone's time  Tongue



Also, maybe it's just me, but on smaller time-frames can see some obvious laddering of positions happening here; $38.5K, $36K and $34K.
The sort of quiet accumulation of averaging into the buyz one... bears about to get rekt... 50% discount short lived for now.
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January 22, 2022, 10:24:49 AM

We are all going to DIE!!!
Well not now - mentally already dead- physically soonish  Shocked

I sure hope this marks the bottom! Things are getting a little wild in the short term. When people start screaming we’re all going to die that has got to be a buy signal. Lol

Apparently $34K is the we’re all going to die level. I hope it holds. Smiley

Don’t fret too much. It’s just numbers on a screen after all.

Just playing a bit ;-)
But seriously, this a a nasty drop, brutal...!! No decent bounce in nearly 3 months and no sign of bounce to be seen - yet?-

Let's see how this evolves... but I guess all bullishness is now evaporated
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January 22, 2022, 10:29:32 AM

This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation.
What worries interests (pun intended) me much more is that this is only the beginning. Imagine what happens to the stock market if the interest goes back to normal values!

Quote
I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020.
Now how's this looking if you measure in Bitcoin? I count almost 50% inflation in 2 months, didn't people get the memo fiat is at risk of inflation, not Bitcoin?
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January 22, 2022, 10:33:59 AM

New bottom is 34000

FFS

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January 22, 2022, 10:34:38 AM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 05:40:46 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitebits (1), somac. (1)

This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation.
What worries interests (pun intended) me much more is that this is only the beginning. Imagine what happens to the stock market if the interest goes back to normal values!

Quote
I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020.
Now how's this looking if you measure in Bitcoin? I count almost 50% inflation in 2 months, didn't people get the memo fiat is at risk of inflation, not Bitcoin?

This is the best tweet  I saw in a while, and beautifully explain the correlation between FIAT and bitcoin:




Incidentally, this is the reason I invested in bitcoin a while ago.
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