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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337041 times)
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El duderino_
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January 27, 2022, 05:05:00 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)

But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

I think we’ll see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We’ll bottom above $20,000 & then we’ll start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We’ll hit over $150,000 in 2025.

I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we’re in a bear market now though & we’ll have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025.

You’re my brother, but you gonna be wrong in this one  Kiss Kiss Kiss
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El duderino_
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January 27, 2022, 05:09:05 PM
Last edit: January 27, 2022, 08:55:17 PM by El duderino_
Merited by hisslyness (10), icopress (8)



I don't know if you are just trying to find patterns to fit your narrative that we are in a bear market. You tried to sell it with Elliot Wave Theory, but that was incorrectly applied.

Now you are using 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA. but that really isn't the case, just from looking at it, i can see it has crossed it numerous times without retesting...

I have never been a big believer in TA, more of a subscriber to the fundamentals. It's kind of like what came first, "the chicken or the egg"

Now that you have this information, have you started to short Bitcoin? Are you putting your money where you mouth is?

Again, do you really believe we have hit the top of this bull run?


EDIT: i don't believe you are being a troll... You are trying to support your theory, unlike some other who post one liners and disappear...




You’re among my favorite posters Sir.

Now eat merits.
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January 27, 2022, 06:00:48 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), Paashaas (1)

I have been doing various things with coffee stirrers and crayons, and ~25k also looks like a good target for the drop from the giant head and shoulders considering it top portion.

So I think this theory has some pretty good possibility of happening.  Unfortunately that would also paint us a lower low... which seems kind of bad.  But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

Of course I would still rather see a higher low and a third peak...  But, who knows?

Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want?   I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?

But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

I think we’ll see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We’ll bottom above $20,000 & then we’ll start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We’ll hit over $150,000 in 2025.

I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we’re in a bear market now though & we’ll have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025.

That's too bad....,...


I supposed that this year will tells us....whether  bear market like you said.. or an extension of the bull market....

There could be some variations of those theses.. but those two are the main two contending theses currently..

There are some scenarios that could play out more ambiguously that end up NOT making it clear regarding which of the above two dominant theses had been the winner....

Personally, I have the sense that it is more likely that this will resolve itself.. and likely be known in 4-6 months at the latest...... and, even though I am more inclined to conjecture that an extension of the bull market is going to play out.. I am not going out and taking out debt to bet on what I believe to be the most-likely of outcomes for this calendar year.... at least not currently... 

(by the way, admittedly, my strategy is somewhat front-loaded anyhow, so it's not like I would change in the midst of some ideas that I already had most of last year... so admittedly there is a bit of locking in.. as compared to maybe if I might had taken some kind of a BIGGER shavings then I would have already taken that position... so even if my being wrong is playing out in front of my eyes.. it is not as if I can do very much to change what I am doing.. sure there are little things that I could do, but largely my personal strategy does not get changed quickly anyhow)
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January 27, 2022, 06:01:34 PM


Explanation
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January 27, 2022, 06:22:44 PM

But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.

I think we’ll see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We’ll bottom above $20,000 & then we’ll start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We’ll hit over $150,000 in 2025.

I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we’re in a bear market now though & we’ll have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025.

You’re my brother, but you gonna be wrong in this one  Kiss Kiss Kiss

so... you mean boyfriends?   Wink Cheesy Cheesy
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January 27, 2022, 06:29:31 PM


Oh yea, let's bring the old charts where I was wrong as I was learning TA (which no one can be perfect in)
And it went up by 96% before falling down, too bad right.

And simply ignore the charts where I was right  Cheesy

Let's stick with your current prediction.. who gives any shits about your past.

Right now, you are saying that there are high odds that the BTC price needs to meet the 200 Week moving average before it will be able to move up, and you are saying that such meeting of spot price and the 200-week moving average may well take a few months to play out.   So you are largely saying that we have good odds of reaching $24k within 3-6 months. How confident are you?  Are you confident enough to place a bet?  Does not have to be for a large amount and we can get some mutually agreeable member to escrow it... we just have to figure out the terms.. maybe the parameters?  Maybe you would say $24k before $46k?  or something like that?  Of course, we could pick different price points and timelines that might help to align with confidence levels.  You talk like you have a lot of confidence in 24K.. something like quite a bit more than 80%?   Am I reading you wrong?  Are you not that confident? 

By the way, many guys run away like scared little rabbits when they actually have to back up their outrageous claims with any kind of bet that would attempt to capture their outrageous claims within the terms of a bet (and for sure it does not even have to be large amounts.. (10k to 500k satoshis could sufficiently be in the ballpark of establishing bet terms).. You have already run away or avoided or ignored bet terms at least once, so I doubt that you are even close to actually wanting to back up your claims with some kind of skin in the game and you are likely going to walk back your supposed level of confidence... while you are supposedly learning and pumping out various kinds of pie in the sky theoretical bullshit for quite a few months.. while you are supposedly "learning."
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January 27, 2022, 06:30:24 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)


Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want?   I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?


This is most certainly true!  In fact, I think it is fairly common to COMPLETELY twist what we want to believe with what we think will happen.  In the area of markets, this is one thing all the prophets I admire have in common.  That they know how to separate their emotions from their view of reality.  The tendency to conflate ones wishes and fears with ones beliefs is a thing folks MUST overcome to be successful.  And it can be expressed negatively and positively.

For example.  I think a common mistake people MIGHT be making right now is based in a fear of repeating the last 4 years (again).  My conversation with LFC is in this area.  Although I think his belief has a rational basis I am also aware that the adherance of this belief may be because of fear.  Just as the rejection of this belief may be because of a bias to bullishness.

Around here we all know that it is possible to let our fears/hopes get the better of us.  Mindrust is often cited.  And people have bet the whole farm (or at least a BIG BARN) on an alt with a narrative that resonates for them and lost nearly everything as well.  A couple famous WO members come to mind here, but I will refrain from naming them out of respect.

So far as the current circumstances go?  I am having a hard time separating the likely scenarios from the ones I want (or am afraid of).  We are currently at a real crossroads, in a sense.  Hanging out right above making a new low.  And this "cycle" has already been different in that it had a double top.  Not two peaks, but a second peak just a little above the first.  That is unique.  If we are to fall from here, then we will never have really had the typical "blow off top".  I personally think an 80% decline is hard to imagine in the absence of a blow off top.  But who knows?

The positive scenario is we either make a higher low, or we spike lower but still bounce.  Then we make a third top.  I also think it would make sense for the market to continue to oscillate at a higher frequency and smaller bandwidth.  Shorter waves without blow offs and winters.  +175% -45% and so on biased to the upside.  Perhaps there are still some halfing related effects, but I expect them to reduce.

The above is where my money is. 

Is it what I *want* to happen?  Well sort of, yes.  I would not mind the crazy moon rocket too, but I also would not miss the winters.

Is it what logic and reason makes me think is going to happen avoiding emotion?  Sort of, yes.  I do think it is a narrative that actually MAKES SENSE. And could be the way things unfold.

Do I feel strongly about it?  No.

But here's to trains rockets and Carolina for us all... one way or the other.
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January 27, 2022, 06:32:45 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

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January 27, 2022, 06:42:41 PM


Makes you wonder, this action by Putin. I wonder if they'll secretly set up huge mining farms using renewable energy. They’ll keep it all under the radar in preparation for the next bull run & onwards. If Putin is on board it means Russia will be big players in the future of bitcoin.



I think that there had been a decent amount of concern that Russia had been getting some amount of pressure to go along with China's seeming approach to the matter, and of course, having a decent amount of variance from China does tend to show that Russia is thinking about the bitcoin and mining matter differently from China - even though both of those countries have a pretty long and strong track record of flip flopping on the topic of bitcoin in strong and seemingly ongoing contradictory ways...

Some variation of the Byzantine general's problem playing out in front of us, no?... there is a certain amount of inability to trust various adversaries... but then even  when the adversaries engage in various maneuvers to cheat, they might end up hurting themselves, but they do not really hurt bitcoin in any kind of meaningful or substantial way.  Bitcoin chugs along and kind of expects the various players to engage in maneuvers that are hostile and contradictory to other players.. and in the end.. each player has to choose whether to play or to sit it out.. and in this case, the opposite of Wargames, the ONLY winning move is actually to play, if you choose not to play, you are going to find yourself in a much worse place 4-10 years down the road (even if you might not be able to recognize your worser position while you are developing it by not playing).
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January 27, 2022, 06:59:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

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January 27, 2022, 07:05:19 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), JayJuanGee (1)

These rules of course only apply if you don't own the keys to your coin. In which case, we all know they're not your coins anyway.

I challenge Switzerland or Singapore to block me from moving coins from MY wallet.
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January 27, 2022, 07:05:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

OT
Literal proof that the future that TPTB want is to nickel-and-dime your life away with subscriptions for every damn little thing:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/44036/ford-ceo-says-heated-seat-subscriptions-unlikely

Whenever they say "unlikely", it means "we're thinking about it so probably yeah at some point".
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January 27, 2022, 07:27:23 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.
I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA Tongue

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

I just don't see how a winter lasting to 2025 is even remotely possible.

Possible, but decently low odds for the great list of reasons that you provided plus some other "reasons" that are not needed to be listed.. not trying to be coy or to suggest that I know something.. but there are seven network effects that continue to build.. ongoingly... and they have snowballing and contagious effects.
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January 27, 2022, 07:28:07 PM

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/



it is good news.

it means along with LN and trezor swiss protocol  btc will be more and more co opted into the banking system

kyc will rule with in ten years.

no such thing as new hidden coins.
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January 27, 2022, 08:01:25 PM


Explanation
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January 27, 2022, 08:31:33 PM
Merited by Biodom (2), El duderino_ (2)

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.
I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA Tongue

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.




Whoaza!!!!!!   That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable  - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness.  

I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish" (so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).


Alright, I made a TA stating we will be at 36k back in Sept 2021 and you wrote a lot of shit and here we are, at 36k. You called me a dweeb lmao.

I do it for myself and for anyone who gives a shit, if you don't ignore it.

Just stop it with your hatred towards me in every post I do in this thread. Enough mate.

I repeat, I do it for myself, I post it for those who cares. If you don't, ignore it and move ahead.

Cheers.
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January 27, 2022, 08:36:58 PM


Makes you wonder, this action by Putin. I wonder if they'll secretly set up huge mining farms using renewable energy. They’ll keep it all under the radar in preparation for the next bull run & onwards. If Putin is on board it means Russia will be big players in the future of bitcoin.




Russia will be excluded and devalued.   Wink
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January 27, 2022, 09:01:33 PM


Explanation
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January 27, 2022, 09:06:43 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), Hueristic (1), fr4nkthetank (1)

My bad however calling my ideas/my thoughts BS is not cool as well. Smiley

I think your TA is complete BS, but then again...I think all TA is complete BS. So meh.

Also some of old timers are quite amused when you TA guys follow the completely predictable pattern of predicting much higher highs during a bull run, and insta flipping to predicting much lower lows during a downturn. Such herd mentality. Cheesy




Just a repost of this meme

I think if someone wants to post and share there analyses or thoughts, the Dude abide  Smiley

Just from my point of view I also don't believe in TA to much, though tbh I do enjoy TA when we are going up, the astronomic things in those periods are truly enjoyable...
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January 27, 2022, 09:10:34 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 05:36:25 PM by fillippone
Merited by El duderino_ (4), bitmover (3)


Not to nitpick, but this picture is rubbish.

  • There was no halving in 2008, actually, there wasn't even a network in 2008 as the bitcoin network started on January 3rd 2009.
  • First halving is 2012 and halved reward from 50 to 25.
  • There will be 32 halving, not 33.
  • This image added 2008 halving, but also skipped one: the list drop from 2128-4 sats to 2132-1 sats (??)


Source.


Anyway, I like halvings.

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