Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Some peoples situation

It's too vague and ambiguous to have any meaning for this here cat.

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1487509038665502720
Thank god it didn't said above $100k because that's just like me predicting it to go $19000. 

Nope..

Not the same.

As you know, right now, $19k is a bit below the 200-week moving average, and even you had asserted a bit of impracticality for the BTC price to go straight down to such a point, so in some sense if we were to want to attempt some semblance of reasonable probabilities, by the time the BTC price were to get to $19k (if it were to get there), the 200-week moving average would then be at something like $24k or perhaps even above $24k at such a projected time.  In other words, getting to $19k would be around 20% below the 200 week moving average, which seems quite unlikely - especially since we have far from resolved whether we are even in a bear market - and the other extreme of relying on some kind of a blackswan event in order to get to your projected objective would be far from reasonable.

Getting to $100k within this calendar year, on the other hand, is far from unreasonable, and quite reachable without even too much effort.  Of course, I am not suggesting that $100k is in anyway guaranteed, but it is way more reachable than $19k... .. Now, if you are striving to consider $19k and $100k to be equally unreasonable, then you should easily be ready, willing and able to enter into a bet that is structured around such parameters.. such as which one is reachable first,... or maybe somehow limiting such framing of the bet to this calendar year

You going to run away again whenever it comes to having to actually back up your assertions rather than just randomly throwing out one nonsense assertion followed by another followed by another?  Starting to become your specialty, no?  the persistent random nonsense asserter.

[AlcoHoDL]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?

[...]

GO BITCOIN

The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ??

Very nice piece though

I've highlighted it in the photo below -- I guess that's what you're talking about. That's the only thing I can spot too, by quickly looking at the photo. I wouldn't call this OCD, as it's too easy to spot. Unless sirazimuth means something else...

Nice piece sirazimuth.

[Copetech]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?


  front

  back



GO BITCOIN

The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ??

Very nice piece though

Yea, that 0 is looking pretty fugged... but I thought he was talking about the display case rather than the coin itself. In which case I would point to the appearance of a chip in the middle of the front edge.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

Are those your actual DCA Buyings or some sort of analysis like If we would have bought at 208 week MA?

You seem to NOT understand the chart.

Let me attempt to reiterate aspects of what the chart is attempting to show.

If we presume $2 million as entry-level fuck you status and we use the 208-week moving average as our measuring point for assessing the value of our BTC, then we can see that in mid-2014, it would have taken 13,223 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.

Currently, it takes just a bit more than 100 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status, and you can see from the chart that historically the 208-week moving average has been moving up approximately 75% per year, so if we keep that trajectory of the 208-week moving average into the future3, then the number of coins that you need for entry-level fuck you status will get lower and lower.. so in 4 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 8.7 BTC, and in 8 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 0.68 BTC.

I have already acknowledged that maybe it is too presumptuous to maintain 75% per year as the 208-week moving average, so that rate might need to come down, and also it is likely to be the case that in 8 years, $2 million might not be enough for the entrance into fuck you status.  At some point, I will make some adjustments to the charts - but there are ONLY so many hours in the day, so in that particular chart, you see how I outlined the matter as of December 28.

By the way, your questions are a bit nonsensical because the chart clearly does not show my buyings, and I do not fuck around with trying to time the buying of BTC at bottoms, such as the 208-week moving average.,. but I do find that the 208-week moving average to be a pretty decent way of considering how to value your BTC holdings.. and possible extreme BTC price bottoms that might come.  Surely in BTC we have seen historically that the BTC price tends to remain way above the 208-week moving average, so I don't consider much value for people to be waiting to get into BTC out of hopes that the BTC spot price goes down to thew 208-week moving average.. DCA'ing remains a much better strategy in my opinion.. and sure once you achieve decent BTC accumulation levels, then will likely have more options regarding how to consider your BTC holdings in terms of acquiring more BTC, maintaining your holdings or even shaving off some profits once you might consider yourself in a kind of liquidation stage.. but of course, getting towards the achievement of BTC accumulation and maintenance
can take a while to achieve in terms of assessing your own individual financial/psychological circumstances too.

.....

EDIT: Anyone hear from Elwar? Noticed his LND channel with me has been down for some time now.

Judging from his past openness on this thread and bitcoin holdings,
I would venture to guess he's probably taking his opsec more seriously these days and would prefer a lower interwebz profile.
Can't say I blame him.
Just speculating mind you.

Elwar has not really been shy about those kinds of things... so I don't agree with your theory sirazimuth.. even though it is possible that Elwar is just busy in real life.. which does happen from time to time.

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1487531793804926981

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

I have been around a minute.  My guess is the majority of early holders have sold.  Quite a few I'd say.  A few of them went on to make a killing in ETH and other emergent alts.  MANY of them lost most of their stack with alts.  An elite few (some of them here) went on to bolster their stack via trading, but most traders lost, of course.  And some, a minority in my humble opinion, have held through into the years.  I am proud to be among those, though what I DID NOT do is ever buy enough lol.  Duh.

Some proudhons.. erm, I mean people, did sell a lot, but had so much they were still in pretty good shape.  I think that probably a majority of the "winners" are in this category.

I remember Laszlo posting a picture of a couple pizzas he bought on Pizza day what was is... 17? 18?  I am not sure... But the fun part is look at his house in the background... looks new.  Looks like it's pretty fancy.

[Richy_T]

Speaking of Lightning, when will it get mainstream? I mean, yesterday I wanted to pay for a Discord nitro which costed $4 and the guy didn't even know what Lightning is. 

Yes. I paid on-chain...

Have you not been paying attention?

18 months.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

THE SOLAR is what my partners and I do.

Anyone that understands what you are showing knows that all anti BTC info in terms of power wasted is a lie.

Leaved un repaired holes in the ground for more than a century was a huge incentive for coal mining.

instead of that build solar fields with proper incentives if they mine 50% and sell power to the grid 50%

problems solved.

Meh, kind-of a red herring. Those holes can be repaired and can end up looking like pristine countryside within a couple of decades. Then there's also the fact that your solar panels require minerals that need mining.

Not that I'm against solar. I'm just a cynic.

[sirazimuth]

..... but I thought he was talking about the display case rather than the coin itself. .....

Correct, I should have mentioned that it is indeed an issue with the steel housing case I made. Not the actual coin in capsule that I did not make.
Programming error in layout. I suppose if you don't make a certain assumption on proper placement
of the circular pocket in relation to the steel perimeter, there is no issue.
Also the photo not being a perfect top view might also not make the error apparent.
Have I given the answer away yet?

... In which case I would point to the appearance of a chip in the middle of the front edge.

That's not a chip. It's an M3 threaded hole to accept a set screw that captivates the capsuled coin.

[nanobtc]

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

I remember that guy. It was not a 'childhood home' for him. He was so dubious sounding about it all, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold. I haven't looked it up.

[Arriemoller]

Full storm outside, I guess it blew in from the UK, our weather usually does, did you have a storm yesterday LFC?
Anyhow, I'm gonna go for a short walk in the storm now.

Yeah, I had nothing else.

[Arriemoller]

Forgot to say, I like storms.

[OutOfMemory]

..... but I thought he was talking about the display case rather than the coin itself. .....

Correct, I should have mentioned that it is indeed an issue with the steel housing case I made. Not the actual coin in capsule that I did not make.
Programming error in layout. I suppose if you don't make a certain assumption on proper placement
of the circular pocket in relation to the steel perimeter, there is no issue.
Also the photo not being a perfect top view might also not make the error apparent.
Have I given the answer away yet?

You don't mean the placement of the pocket is off center (vertically)?
Barely noticeable. But what's that dent/chip on the upper lefr corner rounding on the first photo, with the coin pocket is facing upwards? Just a reflection?

Forgot to say, I like storms.

We had storms aound here, but not so strong ones, followed by a day/night full of gusts. Wednesday/Thursday, so likely unrelated.
I love thunderstorms. I was teaching my kids to ecstatically scream "flash" after every lightning, followed by a growling-like "thunder" when the roll came in.
None of them was ever frightened by thunderstorms, they were used to enjoy them. When they woke up in the night because of thunder, some of them had complained about the loudness, but only sometimes.

[Richy_T]

Also the photo not being a perfect top view might also not make the error apparent.

There's like a dent where the top left-radius meets the top. I figured that might just be an illusion of perspective though.

[philipma1957]

THE SOLAR is what my partners and I do.

Anyone that understands what you are showing knows that all anti BTC info in terms of power wasted is a lie.

Leaved un repaired holes in the ground for more than a century was a huge incentive for coal mining.

instead of that build solar fields with proper incentives if they mine 50% and sell power to the grid 50%

problems solved.

Meh, kind-of a red herring. Those holes can be repaired and can end up looking like pristine countryside within a couple of decades. Then there's also the fact that your solar panels require minerals that need mining.

Not that I'm against solar. I'm just a cynic.

Yeah of course they can be fixed but they are not and that is a subsidy.

If all the filth and holes left in the world had been fixed as they dug coal would have not been cheap.

Coal is not that cheap. Millions of acres have been pillaged world wide with zero spent on repair.


Mean while putting an acre of panels on an empty roof not only clean air it creates more restate.

Most people are  clueless about the feasabilty of solar vs coal.

Notice I do not say dump oil and or gas. 

I am in favor of proper oil and natural gas use.

Even coal is okay if utilized properly buy unfortunately it is not used correctly.

[STT]

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

I remember that guy. It was not a 'childhood home' for him. He was so dubious sounding about it all, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold. I haven't looked it up.

Unfortunately his thread got locked and it was still being updated by the OP.   We should probably have something besides plain lock, limited access by the people who originally posted on the first page or similar.  I'd like his update if he was still around but I dont have that one bookmarked to know if he is active, I'm fairly sure Im right in remembering he would occasionally come back and say he had continued to hold and it was a 2nd house left in a will yep.
  It was in a newspaper at the time right, maybe a reporter will chase it up.  They always mention the person who buried his old hard disk, literally every rally that dude pops up.


BTC is about upto a downtrend for the last month or so, the pattern of lower highs since the ATH.  If we can maintain 40k in the next week and confirm that as a low in some way then that trend of declining highs each week will be broken and I expect a proper rally to at least the 50 day average or 50 week near 50k ;  we've only really been having waves back and forth that resolve downwards again.
  50 week moving average is now pacing lower each week (slightly) but 200 day is still moving upwards, they do vary some I think because 200 day is more inclusive of weekend action.

[not to be the negative guy but at least some would have voted 40k had it been included on the poll, such is the gloom of negative sentiment]

[OutOfMemory]

If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.

[sirazimuth]

........

You don't mean the placement of the pocket is off center (vertically)?
.......

Off center.... correct! ....But in reality, its offset about 2 mm in the X-axis (horizontal), not the Y. But without that top view I can see that it does appear off in the Y.

........

Barely noticeable. But what's that dent/chip on the upper lefr corner rounding on the first photo, with the coin pocket is facing upwards? Just a reflection?
.......

Ha! I forgot about that and didn't even notice it showed in photo till you mentioned it.
Indeed another fubar.
And I didn't make a big enough chamfer to clean it up.

[IntroVert]

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

I remember that guy. It was not a 'childhood home' for him. He was so dubious sounding about it all, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold. I haven't looked it up.

I know that Elwar sold his house for bitcoin around that time. Not sure about the origins of the house.