Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

I understand you are talking about the case, and not the coin... BUT!

One of these things is not like the others...

Funny thing is I prefer the one in red.

[cAPSLOCK]

I understand you are talking about the case, and not the coin... BUT!

One of these things is not like the others...

Funny thing is I prefer the one in red.

Me too actually.  It gives it the double line vibe.  It's good like that!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

getting ready for the move up and over 40k Feb 1 = 40k+

[d_eddie]

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.

U just wait for the flippening... of fillippone and you will see the true nature of reality!!!

meritz moar meritz
a clash among the titans
fillipponening?




#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Meanwhile... In Canada...

[Richy_T]

I know that Elwar sold his house for bitcoin around that time. Not sure about the origins of the house.

This is all you need anyway

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1487531793804926981

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

That’s unbelievable. I wonder if he sold some to buy the house back or still homeless with HODLing

Your response shows both your hostility and your ongoing desire to underappreciate bitcoin's historical bullish performance that is likely continuing into the future.

BTC is about upto a downtrend for the last month or so, the pattern of lower highs since the ATH.  

I see a so far correction 52% that comes since our November 9 (nearly three months ago ATH).... so sure a question is whether the correction is over or if it is going to continue.  I doubt that you can get very caught up on attempt to apply technical analysis to bitcoin as if it were some kind of mature asset and ignore that there likely continues to be a considerable amount of ongoing upwards price pressures... sure it could be over for our lillie fiend, and we go into a bear trend from here, but surely far from any kind of certainty.. especially since we had already had a 56% correction in May/June/July.. so we are in a bit of a weird place.. and even weirder if you want to presume the UPPity run to be over based on current facts in front of us and given a bit of the longer couple years of context in which we are in.... but hey.. seen it many times in which guys want to presume going into a beartrend before getting there... and for sure guys get tricked out of coins in such circumstances, and other guys will profit because the trend ends up being down.. so sure it is better to be ahead of the trade.. but which way is it going to go... ?   For sure, I am not presuming down.. but you can do what you like.

If we can maintain 40k in the next week and confirm that as a low in some way then that trend of declining highs each week will be broken and I expect a proper rally to at least the 50 day average or 50 week near 50k ;  we've only really been having waves back and forth that resolve downwards again.
  50 week moving average is now pacing lower each week (slightly) but 200 day is still moving upwards, they do vary some I think because 200 day is more inclusive of weekend action.

You do have a decent point about abilities to get above certain price thresholds to likely be helpful to confirm that a reversal of the down momentum has taken place... even though you do seem to be leaning towards believing that down is more likely than up...

[not to be the negative guy but at least some would have voted 40k had it been included on the poll, such is the gloom of negative sentiment]

$47,989 has been the so far high for 2022, if we look at the daily candle on the 1st, so $40k would not have been applicable as a high for the year because we already had close to $48k.  So it is possible to have said that the top of the year will be $47,989 in order to suggest that the top is in, and surely there are quite a few guys who would have voted for that option even if $50k were to be the next lowest option available in the poll.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.

I don't know how you would presume early?

We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy.  That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."

In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

I remember that guy. It was not a 'childhood home' for him. He was so dubious sounding about it all, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold. I haven't looked it up.

I know that Elwar sold his house for bitcoin around that time. Not sure about the origins of the house.

I am pretty sure that Elwar sold his house around the summer of 2016 . or it was some kind of similar event in which Elwar finalized the house deal and bought the bitcoin in something like the $600s., and then the bitcoin price dropped for about 6 months  (around that time there was an issue involving the Bitfinex exchange that caused the BTC price to linger for several months.. before recovering) which contributed to Elwar looking like a fool for about 6 months.. .since he bought the bitcoin that were a product to his house sale proceeds.. right before the Bitfinex "hackening" or whatever it was?).. and then thereafter he looked like a genius because the BTC price recovered way beyond his purchase price.. especially once we got into 2017.. and really the lowest dip that we had was around $800 in early 2017.. before getting into the $2k to $3k price territory and we know the rest of what happened in 2017.

[fillippone]

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.

U just wait for the flippening... of fillippone and you will see the true nature of reality!!!

meritz moar meritz
a clash among the titans
fillipponening?




#haiku

I don’t know if the Fillipponeing will happen, but for sure it will be a fun race!

If course I know El dude has some ace up his sleeve… some trick he’s best known for!
But I will keeping feeding him the deserved merits, don’t worry!

[Biodom]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house or a house that was inherited.

[ImThour]

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

Are those your actual DCA Buyings or some sort of analysis like If we would have bought at 208 week MA?

You seem to NOT understand the chart.

Let me attempt to reiterate aspects of what the chart is attempting to show.

If we presume $2 million as entry-level fuck you status and we use the 208-week moving average as our measuring point for assessing the value of our BTC, then we can see that in mid-2014, it would have taken 13,223 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.

Currently, it takes just a bit more than 100 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status, and you can see from the chart that historically the 208-week moving average has been moving up approximately 75% per year, so if we keep that trajectory of the 208-week moving average into the future3, then the number of coins that you need for entry-level fuck you status will get lower and lower.. so in 4 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 8.7 BTC, and in 8 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 0.68 BTC.

Understood, thanks.

Your response shows both your hostility and your ongoing desire to underappreciate bitcoin's historical bullish performance that is likely continuing into the future.

A little bit of sarcasm doesn't help I guess. Also, I am also bullish for the long term, there is no problem trying to predict/guess a good buying spot in short term. Won't hurt anyone.

[JayJuanGee]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

Even though it did seem to end up working out pretty well for Elwar, I had thought that it was a bit of a step too far (at least for how I was considering the whole bitcoin matter at the time, and surely, I had already been pretty heavily investing into BTC in 2014 and even a bit more than I wanted in 2015, so by the time 2016 came, I was not really feeling like doing any large sum injections into BTC but instead sticking with more modest means of employing ongoing DCA type accumulations of BTC.. rather than adding high amounts of lump sums).. but of course, none of us know the exact circumstances of other people including their finances and they psychology.. and even in this case some particulars that he may well have been weighing regarding his then location, and it did seem that Elwar had gotten into a mode (at that time) that he was working on being more mobile anyhow, so sometimes there might not be any kind of reason to stay in one place merely for owning a home there.. and surely, circumstances of job and family could vary from person to person, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Your response shows both your hostility and your ongoing desire to underappreciate bitcoin's historical bullish performance that is likely continuing into the future.

A little bit of sarcasm doesn't help I guess. Also, I am also bullish for the long term, there is no problem trying to predict/guess a good buying spot in short term. Won't hurt anyone.

Where we are in our bitcoin accumulation journey is likely going to affect the various strategies that we might attempt to employ.

Even though I am a pretty big believer in BTC accumulation strategies that mostly emphasize DCAing, I have no problem when guys figure out various ways to buy on dips and also to lump sum invest (which might employ some combination of strategies of DCA'ing and buying on dips).. .and so even with the buying on dips and lump sum investing I consider them to be ways to supplement DCA'ing strategies - which is likely the best strategy in a lot of cases. 

I am not much of an enthusiast towards the employment of a variety of BTC trading strategies if those are meant to be used to accumulate more BTC, absent if the trader might already have gotten to decently high BTC accumulation levels and/or profitability or that such trader is merely playing around with small portions of his/her BTC portfolio.

In other words, I am a pretty big advocate of attempting to employ more straight-forward means of merely buying BTC and HODL BTC in order to accumulate and preserve capital, and I don't really believe in selling BTC to buy back lower.. because it tends to be too risky and also has a lot of tendencies to not sufficiently emphasizing the preservation of BTC principle - however, once a person may well have gotten to pretty high BTC accumulation and/or profitability levels, I have no problem with selling small amounts on the way up as a means to provide a kind of insurance in case the BTC price falls back down, but those strategies emphasize a kind of insurance aspect rather than a primary means to accumulate more BTC...

By the way, another thing to consider once accumulating a good amount of BTC is just how much BTC to sell at various points on the way up.. There is a good thread about considering how to possibly skim off profits (referred to as raking).. which might be helpful for some members who want to consider how to think through and plan to establish their own mindset in the direction of when to sell, how much to sell and why to sell.

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Another irritating angle can be when guys are seeming to talk their book rather than really attempting to be objective and to reasonably assess where they believe that the BTC price might go (of course this is more of a problem in terms of short term predictions).  Sure, there can be some tendencies for any of us to talk a bit of our book, especially a lot of us are investing in BTC for a long time, so we have some tendencies to be biased towards the BTC price going up by the fact that we own a lot of BTC so our networth goes up more when the BTC price goes up as compared to when the BTC price goes down. 

So, sure there can be some differences of opinion regard bitcoin's price direction, especially in the short-to-medium term - but also questions regarding how objective any of us might be in making our assessments of short-to-medium term BTC price dynamics..

I do believe that a lot of nocoiners, under invested in BTC folks, bitcoin naysayers and shitcoin pumpeners do readily like to accuse BTC HODLers as being biased by their BTC holdings.. sure there could be some amount of truth in some of that, but many times, those tend to be fallacious kinds of claims and frequently many of us bitcoin HODLers will consider that some of the BTC critiques do not own enough BTC which causes them to be biased in terms of not understanding BTC rather than that they are more objective because they are insufficiently invested in BTC. 

[ImThour]

Some On-Chain Data If someone is Interested

Supply on Exchanges: Shows the total amount of BTC located in known exchange wallets.


Whale Transaction Count: Number of Transactions transferring more than 1M USD.


Active Addresses: Number of unique addresses involved in BTC transactions daily.


MVRV Long/Short Difference: For certain coins, this indicator tends to bottom at the lowest point of its bear market and peak at the top of its bull cycle.


MVRV Ratio: Shows the average profit or loss of all BTC holders based on the price when each token last moved.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation