Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

I just noticed that google translate doesn't include latin, that's very odd.
Can someone here please tell me what "Dixi et salvavi animam meam" means?

Use "Identify language" and it'll show Latin.

Regardless, "I said, and have saved my soul"

Thank you!

[1714229253]

1714229253

[1714229253]

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[goldkingcoiner]

Regarding the Russo Ukranian conflict, there is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor and 100% to blame.

Excusing Russia's war and annexation of parts of Ukraine with historical reasons is just wrong.
With that kind of reasoning Sweden can claim the Baltic states (including Finland, yes it's really ours) and St Petersburg "for historical reasons".

Are you referring to how Khrushchev "gave" Crimea to Ukraine without a referendum, which was illegal? And he was drunk while doing so.

"Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the USSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR."

Was taking back Crimea after all this time a dick move? yes.

But morally, I am with Russia on this one, especially because the Crimeans don't seem to be complaining about not being slaughtered by extremists after Maidan or their quality of life skyrocketing.

The US doesn't give two shits about Ukraine except for building a NATO base so they can exert more influence and pressure on Russia.
Europe pretends to care, as not to anger the US. Except for Germany who openly cares more about their gas bill not going up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[STT]

Most notable thing from Brandt there is the chart drawn with channel down which is not close to being broken.  So he is quite bearish for the moment.   I thought we were in the region of breaking the downtrend but not that surprised it wont be so easily done.

SWIFT exclusion would equate to the beginning of a world war is something I've heard a few times.  Might sound like exaggeration but either way its not likely done without consideration to escalation.  I'm not sure it happens even with an invasion, other measures are more passive.   Russia and China have been wanting an alternative to Dollar standard for years anyway, they are net buyers of gold for over a decade and China became the largest producer also;  I dont see crypto in their intended plan.   China making up some digital centralized ledger isn't crypto

[Arriemoller]

Regarding the Russo Ukranian conflict, there is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor and 100% to blame.

Excusing Russia's war and annexation of parts of Ukraine with historical reasons is just wrong.
With that kind of reasoning Sweden can claim the Baltic states (including Finland, yes it's really ours) and St Petersburg "for historical reasons".

Are you referring to how Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine without a referendum, which was illegal? And he was drunk while doing so.

"Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the USSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR."

Was taking back Crimea after all this time a dick move? yes.

But morally, I am with Russia on this one, especially because the Crimeans don't seem to be complaining about not being slaughtered by extremists after Maidan or their quality of life skyrocketing.

The US doesn't give two shits about Ukraine except for building a NATO base so they can exert more influence and pressure on Russia.
Europe pretends to care, as not to anger the US. Except for Germany who openly cares more about their gas bill not going up.

Yes, I do mean when Krustjev gave Crimea to Ukraine.

Well If my neighboring country just invaded and annexed part of my land I too would be happy to have NATO bases on my land to help defend against the invader. If the Russians do get a NATO base on their border it's their own doing.
The Russians have Iskander missiles in Königsberg that can reach Sweden and several NATO countries, NATO has, to the best of my knowledge, nothing like that pointed at Russia.
Russia is a big bully that constantly pokes its neighbors and sometimes invade them a little. They need to be put in their place.

[goldkingcoiner]

Regarding the Russo Ukranian conflict, there is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor and 100% to blame.

Excusing Russia's war and annexation of parts of Ukraine with historical reasons is just wrong.
With that kind of reasoning Sweden can claim the Baltic states (including Finland, yes it's really ours) and St Petersburg "for historical reasons".

Are you referring to how Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine without a referendum, which was illegal? And he was drunk while doing so.

"Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the USSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR."

Was taking back Crimea after all this time a dick move? yes.

But morally, I am with Russia on this one, especially because the Crimeans don't seem to be complaining about not being slaughtered by extremists after Maidan or their quality of life skyrocketing.

The US doesn't give two shits about Ukraine except for building a NATO base so they can exert more influence and pressure on Russia.
Europe pretends to care, as not to anger the US. Except for Germany who openly cares more about their gas bill not going up.

Yes, I do mean when Krustjev gave Crimea to Ukraine.

Well If my neighboring country just invaded and annexed part of my land I too would be happy to have NATO bases on my land to help defend against the invader. If the Russians do get a NATO base on their border it's their own doing.
The Russians have Iskander missiles in Königsberg that can reach Sweden and several NATO countries, NATO has, to the best of my knowledge, nothing like that pointed at Russia.
Russia is a big bully that constantly pokes its neighbors and sometimes invade them a little. They need to be put in their place.

By that logic Russia would not be a "big bully" if it illegally invaded offshore countries on false premises, like the US did to Iraq, for example? Do we need Russian bases with nuclear missles on the borders of the US because they invade [enter names of middle eastern countries here] every few years?

Lets not be hypocritical. If you see fit to surround a country with enemy bases and nuclear missles, then that country will obviously respond accordingly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

the sound of one hand
pointing at the golden moon
where is our dino?

[cAPSLOCK]

Does anyone else feel like we are about to see a HUGE MOVE in the price... but do not know which way it is going to go?

I almost hope I just doomed us to a month of crab walking...

(oh, and barring a big ass move, I suppose this would be a last stop before we test the channel top.  Barring a big ass move...)

[JayJuanGee]

If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.

I don't know how you would presume early?

We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy.  That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."

In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.

Right, sure it's not always how price dynamics play out.
I presumed early, in terms of the ol' cycle blowoff/long lasting bear grind down like 2017-2019. The market dynamics turned nuts in 2021, china exiting, ecologic mining FUD. "This time it's different", you remember?  

I do sense that you are ongoingly feeling that BTC has been overly suppressed.. and "we should be at x price rather than some fraction of x"

I have to admit you're wrong.

That's a pretty bold stance.

It is what it is, no?   I mean who is to say that there ways a, b, c and d reasons for the BTC price being lower than expected, and if a, b, c and d did not exist, there would be other reasons.. We cannot really know, so we just go with the punches, no?

Absolutely. If i wouldn't see it that way, i'd be better off creating a twitter account and join discussions there.
A small part of my lil selfie aimed at some goals i wanted to achieve, each of them needing some amount of money to be put in. For sure, i'd like it if Bitcoin would be (or have beeen already) in the desired price range(s) to make me sell a part of my stash, but these are all goals that would save me more money in the long run, so it's just a switch of assets, for everybody else that can see it that way.

If I am reading you correctly, then surely we can find a common ground to understand that since each of us knows that our journey UPpity is not going to be a straight path, each of us is going to deal with the UPs and DOWNs along the way in different ways.. in the meantime we have to be able to live.. we cannot just wait for the UPpity to happen.

So, big disputes can be had about how we vary in our ways of dealing with the UPs and DOWNs along the way.

I should stop while I am ahead because I cannot really get into knowing your particulars.. and I have no reason to not believe that you are projecting out various scenarios so it if you have projected out a variety of scenarios then there may well end up being some points that we vary in our discretion, but that would not mean that you have chosen a route that is not best for your weighing of the potential costs/benefits and risks from your perspective.

Bearwhales or whatever you want to call them, are going to attempt to take advantage of whatever they have going in their favor to continue to push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can get it to go, and for sure, they appreciate when weak hands cooperate because in that sense they do not have to use as many of their coins and/or resources because even though some of them might appear to have unlimited resources, such as infinitely printing money, there are likely even costs to some of their seemingly infinite resources.

I don't see the matter to be much different than previously in the sense that we continue to have attempts to push the BTC price down and attempt to cause HODLers to lose faith in HODLing... The main difference remains that the players are BIGGER and it takes more resources and financial instruments/tools to shake the weak hands from their coins.. and yeah, if there is an appearance that the 4-year fractal is broken or an appearance that stock to flow is broken then more weak hands can be shook from their coins...

Maybe an important question remains regarding the extent to which BTC prices can continue to be kept down for the next month, two or three months?  Sure the longer that bearwhales are able to keep the price down, the more that confidence is lost, but I really doubt that their resources are infinite and at some point they run out of coins and they cannot keep this bad boy down any more... And, I am not even proclaiming that I know the result of our current battle... because even though I presume that we are still in a bull market and there are slightly favorable odds towards UP rather than DOWN, it is not like I am betting the farm on odds that are maybe only slightly over 50%, at this time.  So most of us know that even the minority scenario may well end up playing out, which maybe we are already here in a kind of a minority scenario.. which truly adds to the loss of confidence of some BTC HODLers. but still does not mean that the bull market might not end up prevailing even if it could take a month, two months or three months to resolve the BTC price location battle that we are currently in.

Either way, it would be a good level to go up from here, maybe sideways first, until investors are convinced it's "safe" to put their money onto the table (again).

Sure... that's part of the frame, too.

Another assumption: The higher the price, the less steep the climbs. The higher the "tops", the higher the "lows". Unless no more market shaking events happen in the near future, BTC is ready to go (again) from here. SOMA, IMHO

Of course, we have a dynamic in bitcoin in which the keeping of momentum can really play in favor of whichever side has the momentum... so if the momentum turns to the upside, then the momentum could end up carrying the price to places that are further than what seems to be rational.... so yeah cannot really disagree that as bitcoin's market cap gets BIGGER and BIGGER, it takes a lot more capital to push up the BTC price, yet we also have various potentialities for the confluence of events in which a lot of folks (retail and institutions) continue to take coins off of exchanges, so there are fewer coins to work with in terms of determining the BTC price, and so there could be some confluence of events that cause there to NOT be enough coins available - even if we might already have strong (sand likely true) suspicions that there are a decent number of entities faking the number of coins that they have - but even some of the faking of coins could end up blowing up in their face too under certain circumstances - including some kind of outrageous exponential rise of the BTC price and then their clients want the coins or want the value of the coins, and the third party has hardly any coins to satisfy such demands that they were faking that they had in their possession.. It is not a straight forward gamble, even for some entities who create the appearance that they have infinite resources when they might not have as many resources as they are making it seem that they have.

I can only agree here. I wish i could express myself in english the same way you do, would help a lot. The points you mentioned are factuals that i consider too, but i fail to keep track of many details of my own reasoning in discussions. Look up "working memory" in wikipedia. In other spheres, i found a hope for cure, but it's not even approved and i have to undergo some more diagnostic tests like PET scans and some fancy analysis of retinal perfusion to indicate if the still experimental medication is appliciable for me. It would end more than 10 years of impairment. Then we will create much more fruitful discussions #nohomo

Fair enough.  I think with any one, there are going to be days in which it is easier or more difficult to express some kind of a theory regarding what might be going on, and for sure, sometimes when I am typing I get distracted, so there might be some relationship to a status in which I no longer can remember the overall point that I was trying to make.. and surely, sometimes also, the train of thought might be lost in the middle and never recovered... but part of my points above have to do with how long some of these manipulators may be able to get away with their manipulation.. and surely many of us longer term HODLers fantasize about their getting caught with their pants down in the event that they might be playing around with coins that they don't have or that they are running out of resources to keep king daddy down.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Regarding the Russo Ukranian conflict, there is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor and 100% to blame.

Excusing Russia's war and annexation of parts of Ukraine with historical reasons is just wrong.
With that kind of reasoning Sweden can claim the Baltic states (including Finland, yes it's really ours) and St Petersburg "for historical reasons".

Are you referring to how Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine without a referendum, which was illegal? And he was drunk while doing so.

"Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the USSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR."

Was taking back Crimea after all this time a dick move? yes.

But morally, I am with Russia on this one, especially because the Crimeans don't seem to be complaining about not being slaughtered by extremists after Maidan or their quality of life skyrocketing.

The US doesn't give two shits about Ukraine except for building a NATO base so they can exert more influence and pressure on Russia.
Europe pretends to care, as not to anger the US. Except for Germany who openly cares more about their gas bill not going up.

Yes, I do mean when Krustjev gave Crimea to Ukraine.

Well If my neighboring country just invaded and annexed part of my land I too would be happy to have NATO bases on my land to help defend against the invader. If the Russians do get a NATO base on their border it's their own doing.
The Russians have Iskander missiles in Königsberg that can reach Sweden and several NATO countries, NATO has, to the best of my knowledge, nothing like that pointed at Russia.
Russia is a big bully that constantly pokes its neighbors and sometimes invade them a little. They need to be put in their place.

By that logic Russia would not be a "big bully" if it illegally invaded offshore countries on false premises, like the US did to Iraq, for example? Do we need Russian bases with nuclear missles on the borders of the US because they invade [enter names of middle eastern countries here] every few years?

Lets not be hypocritical. If you see fit to surround a country with enemy bases and nuclear missles, then that country will obviously respond accordingly.

Six percent of the border is hardly being surrounded, and there are no nuclear missiles in those countries. The only country with nuclear missiles on the border is Russia with their Iskander missiles bordering NATO countries and Sweden. Maybe they should start by removing those missiles before they start crying about missiles and borders.

The US can be a bully too, but they have civil rights that gives the citizens the right to protest the bullying, they have a free press that can report on the bullying, and they have elections that can remove the guys who push the bullying. Good luck removing Putin.

[Arriemoller]

Putting the bully in his place.

[marcus_of_augustus]

... I don't know what filter bubble Cobra is living in but I don't see anyone cheering for war, outside of the small cadre of the usual warmongers inside the elite circles who push such stories in the western/global media, call them "Deep State", MI6, CIA or whoever it is but they are definitely pushing for it

... his curious mentioning of the SWIFT system as the crux for attention is also quite telling

... cutting RussiaChinastan off from SWIFT would just about ensure an inevitable response which maybe exactly the outcome "they" are trying to achieve at this stage of the collapse ... game theory would suggest that once cut off from SWIFT the "outsider" nation(s) then no longer has a self-preservation of trade incentive to not cyber-attack SWIFT, perhaps even a perverse incentive to 'burn it all down', if-I-can't-play-noone-can type scenario

... and of course SWIFT is a big, fat, broken target (did they ever find out what happened to that $600million that disappeared in the Phillipines somewhere out of SWIFT a few years back?) ... were SWIFT to come under a concerted cyber-attack by a well-resourced nation state then that would essentially be the end of the global financial system as we currently know ..., i.e. "great reset"

... maybe Ukraine is not anything about any land-war or military incursions but about triggering a 'plausibly deniable' anonymous cover for a cyber-attack on SWIFT?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Sayeds56]

Bitcoin is still trading above pivot point  on weekly chart though it started the new week  below 37K in the morning. The next physiological  resistance is 40,360 which hopefully, it will break during the current week. Hope the correction is over now and Bitcoin staying above its pivot point  while heading into the historically strong month of February.



www.investing.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.

tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.

Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.

Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.

Probably blatantly obvious to some, but I'm a tard, and just figured this out on my own over the last 48 hours, and it's working ridiculously well so far to re-fill drained liquidity.

As the channel gets more balanced, I start cranking up the fees, and stuff starts flowing back out the other way, for another round of profit taking on routing.

Neato.

[AlcoHoDL]

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.

tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.

Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.

Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.

Probably blatantly obvious to some, but I'm a tard, and just figured this out on my own over the last 48 hours, and it's working ridiculously well so far to re-fill drained liquidity.

As the channel gets more balanced, I start cranking up the fees, and stuff starts flowing back out the other way, for another round of profit taking on routing.

Neato.

I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically? I think what the developers should be focusing on, is code that can be run in a set-and-forget mode, without us having to pamper it constantly to keep it in a healthy state. Maybe I'm asking too much, but the way things stand (based on what I'm reading/learning from you guys), operating a LN node is still a messy piece of work. Good thing is that it seems to be gaining more and more ground, despite the lack of user-friendliness.

[hisslyness]

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.

tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.

Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.

Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.

Probably blatantly obvious to some, but I'm a tard, and just figured this out on my own over the last 48 hours, and it's working ridiculously well so far to re-fill drained liquidity.

As the channel gets more balanced, I start cranking up the fees, and stuff starts flowing back out the other way, for another round of profit taking on routing.

Neato.

Once every 2 weeks I update my channels fees, both up and down, close some and open new ones…

The best feeling is when someone opens a channel to your node! No swaps, just out of the blue you see a new channel! It must mean your node is really worth connecting too…

I think I am the biggest Open Public Node in Australia, a little over 4BTC in liquidity!

Some days it is extremely active, other days is it very quite… I don’t check it as often as I did when first starting out.. now I just let it run on it’s own… and update every 2 weeks…