Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

I think they secretly would, although they won't admit it, ever.

The problem is, Putin (or Russia in general) DGAF what "the people" want. Do any rulers ever? What Russia very, very badly wants is a sea port in "warm" waters. Crimea's Black Sea is a good start.

But the thing is, they always had that Black Sea sea port, it was theirs to loose. They didn't gain a new port, the options in front of them was to either do nothing and loose their black sea fleet, or keep their fleet and suffer the consequence. A blind person wouldn't be surprised by the outcome, but US conveniently first gave out cookies and then cries how Russia is a bully.

As far as the war drums, Ukraine's west clearly doesn't like Russia (where 90+% voted against them, and don't want to speak their language) invading them would be a political suicide. So nothing happens (beyond small localized conflicts like they've been having for the past 8yrs), west gets to claim how they stopped invasion of a big bad bear and playing on that fear push more nations to join and get more NATO bases on Russian border.  

[savetherainforest]

Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

I think they secretly would, although they won't admit it, ever.

The problem is, Putin (or Russia in general) DGAF what "the people" want. Do any rulers ever? What Russia very, very badly wants is a sea port in "warm" waters. Crimea's Black Sea is a good start.

But the thing is, they always had that Black Sea sea port, it was theirs to loose. They didn't gain a new port, the options in front of them was to either do nothing and loose their black sea fleet, or keep their fleet and suffer the consequence. A blind person wouldn't be surprised by the outcome, but US conveniently first gave out cookies and then cries how Russia is a bully.

As far as the war drums, Ukraine's west clearly doesn't like Russia (where 90+% voted against them, and don't want to speak their language) invading them would be a political suicide. So nothing happens (beyond small localized conflicts like they've been having for the past 8yrs), west gets to claim how they stopped invasion of a big bad bear and playing on that fear push more nations to join and get more NATO bases on Russian border.  

I think that's a great idea!!!

All bears belong in a cage or a fence at the Z00!!!


*edit(0):   Any country that chose anything else then a Bull/Cow/Camel/Horse/Bovine, Eagle, Scorpion or Snake to represent them should not be allowed into "The Earth Club".

[goldkingcoiner]

All bears belong in a cage or a fence at the Z00!!!

Bear Lives Matter.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

Looks like we're slapping the top of the recent trading range here.  I would assume a breakout above $39K would lead to a retest of $43K.  I'd probably trim a little at that point of whatever you grabbed at the bottom at $33K if you're a trader.  If not, this is still an exciting level as a breakout above $43K would be extremely bullish and I think would probably move us up over $50K.  There's a couple resistance points around $53K & $57K after that, but then we'd pretty much be looking at retesting $69K at that point...  I'm not sure if we've got the momentum for all of that yet, but I do think we'll probably retest $43K as soon as this week.  We might be dependent upon the news cycle to go any further than that.  All eyes on Biden regulation as we see where this market wants to go.

[becoin]

Well they were kind of forced to do that. Ukraine was not willing to let Crimea be independent, and there would have been a lot of bloodshed. And by law, the Crimean give-away was legally void. So either Russia took Crimea or would have watched Crimea turn into a bloodbath. As I said, I have yet to hear a single Crimean complain about the annexation.

Crimea giveaway - 1954
USSR collapse - 1988-1991
Crimea annexation by Russian Federation - 2014

I'd say "by law" didn't have too much to do with it by that point. Same old rule of conquest. If you can keep it, it's yours.

In 2014 the entire country of Ukraine was annexed by the US through classic coup d'état. Russia just saved Russian people in Crimea and Donbas from living in the American colony of Ukraine (aka Nulandistan).

[Torque]

While the meat patty is not the most unhealthy component of their burgers. Fructose loaded buns, sweetened salad, not to speak of the "sauces".
It's the carbs that do most of the harm, not the meat.

A real meat patty would be the healthiest part of a McD burger, and like you said the rest is complete junk. I don't even consider a fast food burger as real food.

Once they replace the meat patty (to cut even more cost) with an unhealthy, chemical-laden plant based soy substitute, the conversion to completely unhealthy garbage will be complete.

Next they will probably try to sub out the potatoes from the fries with something cheaper, and of course lab-made.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

 a while back there was a link to a nice live btc chart/exchange.

 it even had sound to it. It gave like 10 or 15 second live numbers. I can't find the book mark


does anyone have it?

The first link was given last year about this time on the wo thread I am looking but do not see it.

TIA

[serveria.com]

Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

After all it is geography....

Doesn't make sense. I doubt that Kaliningrad would vote to join/get annexed by any country and such voting could hardly be possible at all. I presume it's populated mostly by Russians?  

[aesma]

Putting the bully in his place.

You know, its hard to take you seriously when your arguments become jpegs.

But, for the sake of entertaining you...

Lets not be hypocritical. If you see fit to surround a country with enemy bases and nuclear missles, then that country will obviously respond accordingly.

The main issue is the meaning of "accordingly". The only example I can think of is the Cuban missile crisis. US had put missiles near the USSR, USSR put missiles on Cuba. Pretty fair. The conclusion also was, with both sides removing their missiles.

The problem with the current situation is that Russia is moving borders. I don't see the US doing that. Afghanistan was invaded 20 years ago, no part of that country is US territory now, obviously.

Well they were kind of forced to do that. Ukraine was not willing to let Crimea be independent, and there would have been a lot of bloodshed. And by law, the Crimean give-away was legally void. So either Russia took Crimea or would have watched Crimea turn into a bloodbath. As I said, I have yet to hear a single Crimean complain about the annexation.

Talking about bloodshed is Russian propaganda. Nothing was happening in Crimea, Russia simply didn't like that their naval base might not be welcomed anymore, and saw an opportunity to take over some more land, as if it needed it.

As for Crimeans complaining, this is Russia. Complaining leads to prison, disappearance, etc.

What I find funniest is that Russia is asking for written assurances that this or that will not happen.

Russia had given assurances that if Ukraine gave back its nuclear weapons, its territorial integrity would be guaranteed.

Didn't work out in the end. All countries seeking nuclear weapons are vindicated in the process.

With that said, the US are really bad at this game. They should just give the assurances, since there is no immediate future for Ukraine in NATO anyway. If things changes in 10 or 20 years, it will always be time to renegue on the signed paper, just like Putin does.

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like we're slapping the top of the recent trading range here.  I would assume a breakout above $39K would lead to a retest of $43K.  I'd probably trim a little at that point of whatever you grabbed at the bottom at $33K if you're a trader.  If not, this is still an exciting level as a breakout above $43K would be extremely bullish and I think would probably move us up over $50K.  There's a couple resistance points around $53K & $57K after that, but then we'd pretty much be looking at retesting $69K at that point...  I'm not sure if we've got the momentum for all of that yet, but I do think we'll probably retest $43K as soon as this week.  We might be dependent upon the news cycle to go any further than that.  All eyes on Biden regulation as we see where this market wants to go.

Like you kind of mentioned in your mix OgNasty.. I do think that $52/$53k is a kind of interesting resistance point (because it is right around the top of the December 3rd move UP)... I am kind of thinking that we cannot call this bottom of $32,951 as being "in" until we get into the $46k to $48k arena.. and of course, any amount of move up will give us some additional comfort towards being further from $33k - but at the same time, anything before $46k to $48k feels too close for this here cat to start to have confidence that our bottom is "in" for this particular correction.  I was tentatively thinking that something like staying above $46k for a week, $48k for more than 4 days or $50k for more than 2 days would all be equivalently sufficient for me to consider that the bottom is "in."

After we get past, our "bottom is in" threshold (if we were to get there?), then probably we can start talking more confidently about retesting our current $69k ATH.. and for me, getting even close to the ATH, such as getting above $62k largely would make the ATH a decently close to being "done deal" (if we could conclude that moving up from 55% confidence to 65% confidence as being as close to a "done deal" as this here cat might be willing to venture?) including another shot towards getting through a kind of "noman's zone" that did not work out too well last time,** when it was seeming like we were going to fairly easily get close to $80k.. but flopped short of that by about $10k-ish...

**Note... this time I am tentatively considering noman's zone to be between $62k and $92k---- last time, noman's zone seemed to be somewhere between $55k and $80k - and yes, we know that we did not make it through noman's zone last time of course.

Last time was not exactly a complete fail because we know that anything can happen, and one of the positives that came out was that surely the bearwhales had to spend quite a bit of resources to get the BTC price to reverse in the midst of noman's zone.. those fucks.... Can they be successful in that deployment of resources again?  that is if we were to get there in the coming months?  For sure, they do not want us to get there.... not comfortable for them.. and willing to spend a lot of resources to attempt to prevent it..  but let's see..? let's see?  let's see?

The next weeks to months are critical^tm.....

I have my doubts about shooting straight-up to something like supra $62k.. but there might be some willingness within the bearwhale camps to allow us (if that's the right way of phrasing it?) to dabble around in the $40k to $52k arena without losing too much confidence that they lost "control" over the situation... but how long can these party poops keep this bad boy down?

For some of these reasons, I am speculating that getting through the $52k to $62k territory could take a few months.. even though we know that there are decent possibilities to short-cut and to go all the way through that $52k to $62k price range without spending so much time in any kind of gradually kind of scenario.. (a funny thing is that sometimes king daddy is able to accomplish gradually/stable blah blah blah.. but sometimes that gradually/stability does not play out so well either).. but still seems like there are going to exist a lot of continued incentives and desires for the bearwhales to battle getting through that $52k to $62k arena, even though the bearwhales would be filled with wet dreams if they could accomplish $69k as the top for the whole of 2022 (including some folks in this thread.. should I name names?... tempted for sure.... )... but even keeping king daddy below $69k (and have they lost it if we get above $62k?) for the whole of 2022 might be a bit too much for any wet bearwhale dreamer to hope for, even though such a thing is not impossible.

[becoin]

Russia had given assurances that if Ukraine gave back its nuclear weapons, its territorial integrity would be guaranteed.

According to the same treaty Russia and US have given assurances that Ukraine will be neutral. In 2014 Ukraine lost its neutrality. One of the first decrees of the Kiev's junta was to apply for NATO membership.

[BobLawblaw]

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.
tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.
Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.
Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.

Confirmed that I was able to COMPLETELY REFILL a drained 5M sat channel using this strategy within 24 hours holy cow!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.
tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.
Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.
Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.

Confirmed that I was able to COMPLETELY REFILL a drained 5M sat channel using this strategy within 24 hours holy cow!!!

I am updating one of our channels to 1 millisat fees.  You currently have all the liquidity.  You know if we keep doing this back and forth we could get a good thing going making these channels be used a lot... hmm.

[psycodad]

a while back there was a link to a nice live btc chart/exchange.

 it even had sound to it. It gave like 10 or 15 second live numbers. I can't find the book mark


does anyone have it?

The first link was given last year about this time on the wo thread I am looking but do not see it.

TIA

Are you looking for this one:

https://aggr.trade/

(Just thought because you mentioned "sound")

HTH

[Arriemoller]

They can also do a classic switch-a-roo by making a big mac basically a mini-mac and then coming out with a Grand Big Mac which would basically be an old big mac.  You just got devalued Argentina style.
Oh wait    How you lovin' it now ?

I would like that actually, Burger King has a whopper junior, why can't McD have a Big Mac junior, they could call it a Small Mac.

[serveria.com]

Russia had given assurances that if Ukraine gave back its nuclear weapons, its territorial integrity would be guaranteed.

According to the same treaty Russia and US have given assurances that Ukraine will be neutral. In 2014 Ukraine lost its neutrality. One of the first decrees of the Kiev's junta was to apply for NATO membership.

AFAIK, NATO is not accepting new member states which are at war or have part of their territory occupied. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation