Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

-snip-

Where'd you get your hat?

Where did you get that tile?

Tile?

[1714275433]

1714275433

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

You had no taxable activity on Coinbase last year

You won’t be receiving any tax forms from us since you had no taxable activity on Coinbase in 2021.

There could be many reasons why you don’t have any taxable events, even though you had activity in your account in 2021. For example, the following are not considered taxable events:

    You bought crypto with cash and held it

    You transferred crypto between wallets

    You transferred crypto between Coinbase accounts, or

    You donated crypto to a qualified tax-exempt charity or non-profit

Want to learn more about crypto taxes? Check out the guides in our new tax center.

Guess they still haven't figured out I am done with them.

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report?


First Paypal now Facebook tanking hard this week as the tech sector continues to take a beating....along with bitcoin. Meta and Zuckersmuck blew it with 'crypto' and their failed Diem venture, getting into the game far too late said Mr. Saylor, 'They have not embraced bitcoin. That is the problem.'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-made-a-crucial-mistake-with-bitcoin-microstrategy-ceo-michael-saylor-164904820.html

6M graphs just for something different to look at.

Meta...good grief..or good riddance?


Paypal also...surprising?  ...no.



On to broader legacy indices for perspective. The Dow surprisingly stable and in the black..for now. The FTSE also up over the last six months.



Bitcoin

Long descending channel continues...



If we are going into a bear market..which seems premature to me but what do I know.. and follow past cycles...we could see a 85% draw down from the ATH of $69,000.00...and that would be $10k corn. Will we see that between now and 2024? I sure hope so because if it drops below $25k im all in again. I dont know how I can be more all in than my already all in..but I will figure it out.

Ok..here it is..this is as bad as it can get imho...might as well face it. Do I think its possible? Of course...just about anything is..do I think it likely? I do not. I would love to scoop up some $10k corn again though.    


One bitcoin still appears to equal one bitcoin...so...unsure about all of this. Anyways...

dyor

[d_eddie]

You had no taxable activity on Coinbase last year

You The IRS won’tbe receiving any tax forms from us since you had no taxable activity on Coinbase in 2021.

FTFY

[Toxic2040]

a more local view with annotations

dyor

4h


Trends continue until they change. Breakout of obvious downward channel will be obvious I suspect.

D

stronghands

[OgNasty]

Not going to lie...  The market technicals look pretty bad.  A retrace to $33K seems almost certain and I'd put the odds of seeing $29K at about 65% and the odds of hitting sub-$10K at about 35%.  This is either the mother of all bear traps before we explode upwards, or we will retrace back to the levels before this recent boom, similar to 2018.  What concerns me is that I don't believe Bitcoin has ever fallen below the previous cycle's high before.  At least not that I can remember off the top of my head.  Now that the stock to flow model has been invalidated, I think it could be catastrophic for Bitcoin to break the higher levels every cycle trend as well.  The fundamentals have never been stronger and there's so much positive news in the pipeline it's hard to think all the momentum behind Bitcoin could come to a halt, but charts tend to tell the truth pretty accurately of what's to come.  Personally, I'm still hoping for $100K Bitcoin this year, but I think the odds of that happening are fairly low.  All eyes on regulation as we see if the Biden administration is going to stop companies from grabbing up all the Bitcoin for the balance sheets and sending the price moonward as they control the market.

[hisslyness]

* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?

My first lightning node was something I built by hand using Docker images on a NAS.  Lol.  That was a nightmare and I was lucky to shut it down and actually get my coins off of it.

Now I use Raspiblitz.  I think it a very nice system.  Stable, actively developed. A little "power-userish".

As Bob mentions Umbrel is also a well liked node-in-a-box.  I think it's a little more polished overall, but similar.

One interesting bit with these things are we are trusting the devs with an awful lot using any of these... I would DEFINITELY suggest doing things like verifying checksum of images and the like.  Because these "distros" are basically Bitcoin wallets with a huge attack surface.  If I were a hacker I would be looking for vulnerabilities in these os/sw distributions.  If you could find a crack in the armor you could certainly make a lot of stolen Bitcoin...

But I do not worry all that much.

One important choice in particular:  I cannot see any reason NOT to use Tor as a private node.  Putting these things behind TOR not only anonymizes them, it also improves firewalling and networking details right out of the box.

Thanks for chiming in, Bob and cAPS!

My Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core) has been running for years on a regular Ubuntu desktop workstation. It has Tor transport enabled and working - not sure that means it's behind Tor. I guess it's just a possible alternative.

I think I'm going with Umbrel for now. Gonna run it on a brand new Raspi4. I'm going to order the hardware later today or early tomorrow. I guess this means that my already running node, along with its already downloaded and synced blockchain data on the local Ubuntu drive, will be useless: the LN node will just reload/resync from scratch. Or maybe I will be able to copy at least the raw blockchain data from old node to new LN node, and have the latter "just" verify it. We'll see when the raspi+stuff arrive and I get around to set it up.

I will ask you guys for advice. A lot. You have been warned.

Quick bit of advice.  Go ahead and get the big RPi.  The 4gig?  (or is there a bigger one yet?)  The extra memory makes the initial chain validation process much faster.  You want a good strong power supply, and a good energy efficient SSD (and though 1g is fine for now... I would almost say just get the 2 so you don't have that hanging over you eventually... I dunno...).  Some external SSDs (like the M.2 in a little case kinds) are power hogs, but the little usually rectangular ordinary ones tend to be power sippers.  And you most likely want some decent cooling for the little thing.  They do not run badly under normal load... but during sync and other operations these little suckers get pretty dang hot.

and make sure you backup your channel state and keep a backup of your seed... can't stress how important it is, especially dealing with. ssd drives...

[d_eddie]

Quick bit of advice.  Go ahead and get the big RPi.  The 4gig?  (or is there a bigger one yet?)  The extra memory makes the initial chain validation process much faster.  You want a good strong power supply, and a good energy efficient SSD (and though 1g is fine for now... I would almost say just get the 2 so you don't have that hanging over you eventually... I dunno...).  Some external SSDs (like the M.2 in a little case kinds) are power hogs, but the little usually rectangular ordinary ones tend to be power sippers.  And you most likely want some decent cooling for the little thing.  They do not run badly under normal load... but during sync and other operations these little suckers get pretty dang hot.

I ordered the 8gig raspi and the original power supply, as well as the recommended raspi case - just as suggested on the Umbrel site. The SSD is 1G, their suggestion too. I suppose I should be good to go.

and make sure you backup your channel state and keep a backup of your seed... can't stress how important it is, especially dealing with. ssd drives...

That's a good one, thanks. I'll see to that. I'll install rsync on the raspi (if not already there) and add a crontab entry to backup daily, or even more frequently.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1489357965966589952

[Richy_T]

-snip-

Where'd you get your hat?

Where did you get that tile?

Tile?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3zsZ7o1xXo

[serveria.com]

Not going to lie...  The market technicals look pretty bad.  A retrace to $33K seems almost certain and I'd put the odds of seeing $29K at about 65% and the odds of hitting sub-$10K at about 35%.  This is either the mother of all bear traps before we explode upwards, or we will retrace back to the levels before this recent boom, similar to 2018.  What concerns me is that I don't believe Bitcoin has ever fallen below the previous cycle's high before.  At least not that I can remember off the top of my head.  Now that the stock to flow model has been invalidated, I think it could be catastrophic for Bitcoin to break the higher levels every cycle trend as well.  The fundamentals have never been stronger and there's so much positive news in the pipeline it's hard to think all the momentum behind Bitcoin could come to a halt, but charts tend to tell the truth pretty accurately of what's to come.  Personally, I'm still hoping for $100K Bitcoin this year, but I think the odds of that happening are fairly low.  All eyes on regulation as we see if the Biden administration is going to stop companies from grabbing up all the Bitcoin for the balance sheets and sending the price moonward as they control the market.

Pff... what a pathetic bear! 35% chance of seeing sub-$10k? In case of "US bans Bitcoin" possibly yes. Otherwise what a load of BS! What market technicals? Why a retrace to $33k seems so certain to you? Can you explain? 

[Hueristic]

Ignore the noise, this too shall pass.

[strawbs]

UK inflation now at 7.25%

Bank of England raises interest rates 0.25% today

Average household income declining at the fastest rate since 1990.



Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England): "What we can do is try to prevent inflation spreading, stop inflation becoming more engrained in the system".

BBC reporter: "Are you trying to get inside people’s heads and ask them not to ask for too high a pay rise?

Andrew Bailey: "Broadly, yes.

BBC reporter: "Really?"

Andrew Bailey: "Yes, in the sense of saying we do need to see a moderation in wage rises. Now that’s painful."



So now we have the Bank of England not even mentioning their rampant money printing as a driver of inflation, now trying to persuade people not to ask for pay rises even though their cost of living is spiraling whilst their incomes decline in real terms. In other words, "yes it's painful but the people need to suffer this pain while we stealth tax them through inflation, in order to prevent runaway inflation. Suck it up."

(*you can replace Bank of England with any other central bank of your choosing. The narrative is the same).

They're losing control of the monster they've created. Fuck this system. Buy Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

UK inflation now at 7.25%

Bank of England raises interest rates 0.25% today

Average household income declining at the fastest rate since 1990.



Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England): "What we can do is try to prevent inflation spreading, stop inflation becoming more engrained in the system".

BBC reporter: "Are you trying to get inside people’s heads and ask them not to ask for too high a pay rise?

Andrew Bailey: "Broadly, yes.

BBC reporter: "Really?"

Andrew Bailey: "Yes, in the sense of saying we do need to see a moderation in wage rises. Now that’s painful."



So now we have the Bank of England not even mentioning their rampant money printing as a driver of inflation, now trying to persuade people not to ask for pay rises even though their cost of living is spiraling whilst their incomes decline in real terms. In other words, "yes it's painful but the people need to suffer this pain while we stealth tax them through inflation, in order to prevent runaway inflation. Suck it up."

(*you can replace Bank of England with any other central bank of your choosing. The narrative is the same).

They're losing control of the monster they've created. Fuck this system. Buy Bitcoin.

Sauce it up
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-60254719

Ahh so its those evil workers that ask for more money from their corporate overlords to lessen the reduction in their buying power, that are causing the inflation? Think i got it right

[vapourminer]

where proudhon?

[Biodom]

If there was no bubble, i am not sure why everybody expects 80-85% decline?
This is kind of awkward and does not make much sense to me.
Can we still go lower than 200wk average (~19K and rising)?
Yes, but only maybe in a war or general depression situation, imho.

[fillippone]

Mate, you are just drawing lines.. what pattern can you see, i see a triangle with a missing side, one pair of red chopsticks, one shorter pair of red chopsticks.

You are just drawing lines to fit your narrative..