I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.
Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.
To much bullish news.
I think you are exactly right. We have not seen the current fundamental circumstances in play any time in the last 12 years.
It's not even just bullish news. We are standing on the cliffs edge. And we are about to go over with no chance of return, and I personally think (as I have said 100s of times) that it is going to be an astonishing transformation, and since Bitcoin *IS* value then the reflection of the coming growth is seen directly on the price.
One way of looking at it.., Up until now the 4 year halving cycle has been the most important driver for the price. It has been the direct driving variable change that has had a profound effect on what the coin is worth. And because it is 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 it is a logarithmic progression. The halving is exactly the same each time by percent, but NOT by value. We lost the creation of 25 BTC per block the first time around, and then 12.5, and then 6.25, and the next one will only reduce the subsidy by 3.125 BTC.
So we have seen 93.75% of the magnitude in dollars already be released for the Bitcoin network. Thus the vast majority of value is out there. And the halvings as we go forward will be each a logarithmic order smaller than the one before.
At the same time as that inescapable perfect mathematical situation continues humming along we are seeing the demand for the asset standing on the brink of explosive growth.
So, what I think is about to happen is the forces of the demand for Bitcoin are soon going to weigh MUCH MORE than the forces of supply, and the changes to it. Demand will happen on a logarithmic curve as well, but I would think one with a different function and shape as the issuance curve. I think demand = adoption, and adoption curves are famously "S shaped" with a somewhat long slow beginning (You are here! This was us) then a explosive rise in the middle (the majority come onboard), and then a long slow ending (as the last stragglers come online).
I believe when that middle section really gets underway that is going to VASTLY outweight the 4 year supply cycle shocks that have driven the price since inception. Both because demand will be the stronger force, and as I said above the Supply has already taken ~90% of it's shot!
The question is where are we on that S shaped curve. I think we are well into the very front of it, but only at the beginning. Maybe 10-20% into the explosive middle section. We will soon see more countries come on board, more businesses, more investment tools (our favorite ETF topic) and just more organic demand from regular users like us.
So no more 4 year cycle. At least not as the primary driver anymore. It will take a backseat to demand eventually. And I think it's going to happen SOON. As in: I am betting it will happen during THIS cycle. Or at least begin to. Of course I could be wrong, and we could have one more boom/bust supply shock thing... but that just does not seen to make any sense to me.
And finally, there *IS* still significant risk of a devastating blow to Bitcoin's price because of geopolitical forces. If the US Federal Reserve can pull the right strings in our government to try to kill bitcoin we could see a massive drop in value. This is really the only scenario I see that would cause our fabled 80+% drop. But it is absolutely a non-zero possibility. So there is that. But even then, that will only delay the inevitable and give the enemies of the USA a nice head start. In some ways it will validate bitcoin my the tacit admission that it is the foe of the Fed that it indeed is. So even the bad news would be good.
But this is why I did not sell when it got frothy up there this time. One of the reasons at least. I decided I would rather not miss the next rise than risk taking any profits. And frankly I just don't need it yet. And I think the psychological torture of 2017-2020 prepared me to handle the even bigger $ losses that I can expect this time even IF this is as low as we go...
Anyway. I think you are right!
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