I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.
Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.
To much bullish news.
How do you define bear market? How do you define moon this time around?
After a meaningful blow-off fase and i haven't seen one yet.
Some of the theories of $65k as a blow off top make very little sense... but people have been pretty adamant about that.. and.. yeah it's not like we can guarantee anything.. even getting above $69k again within the next couple of years.
On the other hand, some called this a bear market for some others not because we are used to real crypto winter; -80% drop with 1 a 2 years of price derpression.
That makes little sense too. People just love to throw out that term, bear market..... even really smart people....
Also, after so much time of witnessing 3-ish bitcoin cycles (4-year cycles), people want to deny the existence of 4-year cycles, too... .. good luck with that..and getting caught up within strict interpretations to lead them down the wrong road of failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for up .. they are going to need it.
By the way.. at the risk of my ongoing repetitiveness, we do not even need to imagine that excess has been taken out of the system.. we had a 6.5x to 7x price increase from September 2020 to April 2021 (or even November 2021), and we had two corrections greater than 50% within that framework... what else do we need to allow buyers to catch up with BTC's spot price? are they caught up? Are they ready for more up? or are we going to presume down before up ---- again, danger exists when presuming that down before up is necessary.. especially when we already had two greater than 50% corrections in the past 9-ish months.
Oh yeah, "I need another 70% to 85% correction otherwise the earlier corrections do not count - they are not enough"... . Who believes such nonsense - except peeps who have been failing/refusing to prepare for UP?
This is a gifted essential positive psychological effect that this 50% drop does not harm us to hard.
For sure, if we get an 80%-ish correction currently - rather than the couple of 50%+ corrections that we already got..... that would be quite challenging to considering what is going on with bitcoin if such crazy bearishness were to actually happen during it's exponential s-curve adoption phases and also during such ongoing crazy-ass macro-circumstances in which bitcoin must be appreciated for one of the ONLY meaningful rescue ships that are actually out there and in existence to provide some kind of alternatives for people so they do not have to jump from their bubble tower and illiquid real estate mansions in Manhatten or where-ever else and even considering if bitcoin may well be some kind of other asset class than what we had thought it to be?
I am not saying that currently, an 80% correction would kill bitcoin (that's down to $14k-ish)... but it would surely challenge our current conceptual framework regarding what is bitcoin and what various purposes it is currently serving - including understanding its position to continue to win the battle surrounding the greatest wealth transfer in history... ..just seems like a long shot to be correcting way below the 200-week moving average and to be expecting anything close to something like 80%-ish - after we have already had two 50%+ corrections in the past 9 months....
On the other hand, if we were to get up to $400k in this cycle (is that pie in the sky?), an 85% would then bring us back down to $60k... of course, we could have variations of some kind of more modest price increases for this particular cycle, but it would not necessarily rule out the resumption of blow-off tops in the future, either... and whether we get some kind of top that is something between $220k and $450k and revisit sub $60k is still to be determined (not inevitable as some people seem to want to proclaim in regards to whether bitcoin is ever going to be coming back to these prices once getting into sufficiently higher orbits).. .but we will see.... we will see.... about how much down is within the cards and is surely any down considerations is part of a product of how much UP has taken place, so there is some attempt at grounding if at least attempting to NOT get too many legs of BTC price predictions in advance.. otherwise, we just look like fantasylandia when talking about too many non-existing hypothetical legs, while the first (the most proximate) of the legs is still being worked out.
It's a privilege to have balls of steel JayJuanGee.
Seems kind of like we are in a lucky place to have had been in BTC for quite a long time, but even if I were a brand new person into bitcoin, and if I were to study bitcoin enough to have some pretty high confidence levels about its bullish case, I would not have a problem trying to figure out how I would be attempting to get my 1% to 25% stake into it - and not sure about how long it might take me to get to establishing my stake (again presuming that I was brand new to bitcoin) though maybe depending on if I were to have other investments, I could lump sum the first couple of percentages, and then DCA and buy on dips thereafter...
Surely it is much more comfortable to already have had established our stakes into bitcoin, so we do not have the stresses and dilemmas that come with initially establishing our bitcoin stake.... the establishing of stake seems the more ballsy and difficult period.
So in that regard, I would consider that the initial establishing of stake have more balls of steel (and more stress) than those of us who have been in for a while and we are merely managing our BTC with a kind of cushion of profits.. and also a cushion of having already been in BTC for a while so we have been able to tweak at various times along the way to attempt to align our financial and psychological comforts with our bitcoin holdings and management of our BTC holdings.
By the way, if I were to shoot towards the higher end of my allocation of my investment portfolio into bitcoin (talking about a 25% allocation rather than 10%).. maybe I would not be so presumptuous about how to accomplish such allocation levels exactly or how many years it might take me to reach my target level.. not an easy place to say if I am trying to reach accumulation levels and not to stress myself out too much in the process of getting from 0% to 25%...
I know sometimes just lump-summing most of it in (or maybe 1/3 of it) might be the better way forward, to then DCA the other 1/3 and to buy on dips with the other 1/3.
Allocations are a bit if a moving target because there should be some thoughts about which parts of your already existing investments would be losing allocation? It is not like we have $500k investment portfolio, and all of a sudden we just come across an additional $150k that we can just throw into bitcoin in order to immediately reach our 25% allocation number (with a new portfolio that keeps $500k into all of what we already have and $150k into bitcoin - which adds up to a new total investment portfolio of $650k).. and surely when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, by the time, I had invested into bitcoin for a year, I became comfortable establishing that I would be comfortable with 10% of my total investment portfolio allocated into BTC, but it took me a whole year to establish such a financial position and such a psychological comfort level.. some people get nervous about too much lump-summing into any investment unless they have a lot of confidence that the bottom is in or whatever (and they could end up being wrong about those kinds of assessments)...so if there is a desire to be more aggressive, the comfort with a higher allocation, such as 25% allocation, might not come right away.. it may take a bit of time to reach comfort with whatever allocation level is established and even comfort in how to get from 0% into whatever level of allocation is comfortable... and sure maybe one goal is established such as getting to 1% or 5% and then maybe getting to higher levels would take some time to unravel in terms of logistically getting there but also in terms of feeling that there is comfort with the decision, whether through ongoing DCA'ing.. lump sum investing, buying on dips or some combination of the three.
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