Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714634741]

1714634741

[1714634741]

1714634741

[JayJuanGee]

Suddenly there are calls for Bitcoin to rocket upwards. Perhaps the Blackrock news set it in motion, but there seems to be a new bullish aroma in the air. Plan B is even telling people to go long with massive leverage, which seems crazy after what we just went through. Seems odd, but maybe he is calling the bottom for people here. I’ll stay away from leverage personally, but do hope the next up cycle is upon us.

Really?
Got a sauce link handy?

EDIT: Other good analysts who called the $69k top, for example, say that BTC will go sideways below $30k until 2024...
I don't know... Probably King Daddy will do some other thing.

Part of the reason that I strive to gravitate to around 50/50 regarding a lot of my anticipations continues to be difficulties to really know anything with much of any certainty, yet at the same time, for anyone with even half a brain, it should be difficult to buy into any ideas of BTC maintaining prices at or below the 200-week moving average for significant periods of time - absent some kind of information that something is broken in my lil precious.  We do not really have that kind of news in recent times

- even though we do have news that a lot of folks had been engaging in double, triple, quadruple and even much higher quantities that I cannot even count of the quantities of bitcoin that they had and then presenting that information to other people (who believed them) in order to get more bitcoin while offering "yield" on an asset that is designed to pump forever.

Sure, discovery of those kinds of arrangements can contribute towards causing the BTC price to go crashing down to ungodly levels, yet there are ways that bearwhales can also end up getting caught up on the other side of those kinds of trades, too... So it does not seem sustainable to be betting in only one direction when BTC prices have already been gravitating below, at or near the 200-week moving average - for nearly 2 months now.. and sure maybe a break-out to the upside will not be sustainable (aka a dead cat bounce), yet I have never heard of a dead king daddy.. I mean I have heard of it for sure (around a few hundred times-ish), but I have not seen such a thing play out in reality (so far).

Edit:  Whoops.  I forgot to mention, which was one of my main inspirations to response to this post in a kind of timely manner...  We have the close of the weekly candle that is coming within about 5 hours of the time of this post - so accordingly,  the BTC price has been hovering in the lower  $23ks for a couple of hours.. but really for about the past three days.. and largely this seems to be contributing to a potential nail-biter in the remaining hours regarding whether or not this week's candle is going to be red or green - and so we are going to need BTC prices to be at least $23,287 in order for this week's candle to end up green..   Bite your nails if you must....  I am not going to say.. and maybe it does not even matter very much so long as the BTC price closes right around the lower $23ks or the upper $22ks.. and our 200-week moving average is just about to touch upon $22,900 as well.. slowly gravitating UPpity - $10-ish per day these days.

[Paashaas]

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says.

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia. Yale, working with a team of international economists, has looked past a wall of Russian obfuscation and used real-world data from retailers, energy traders and investors to reveal a picture very different from the rosy image presented by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June. ‘The economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ he told an audience that included a delegation from the Taliban. ‘Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem; the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this… Gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future haven’t come true.’

The Yale study provides the first comprehensive set of data that proves Putin absolutely wrong. Let’s start with the outright lies.
------------
The endgame of this war will be a battle between guns and gas. Putin is gambling that the economic pain of his gas cut-off will break western support for Ukraine before western guns break his army. But sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought. Putin can and does deny that economic pain. But illusion has a price. Economic crisis will soon enough become a political one.

https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1555990540134617088

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says.

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia. Yale, working with a team of international economists, has looked past a wall of Russian obfuscation and used real-world data from retailers, energy traders and investors to reveal a picture very different from the rosy image presented by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June. ‘The economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ he told an audience that included a delegation from the Taliban. ‘Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem; the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this… Gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future haven’t come true.’

The Yale study provides the first comprehensive set of data that proves Putin absolutely wrong. Let’s start with the outright lies.
------------
The endgame of this war will be a battle between guns and gas. Putin is gambling that the economic pain of his gas cut-off will break western support for Ukraine before western guns break his army. But sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought. Putin can and does deny that economic pain. But illusion has a price. Economic crisis will soon enough become a political one.

https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1555990540134617088

Remind me again in January when I'm sitting with 10 blankets and 4 hot water bottles about how we need more sanctions placed on Russia because the next round "will definitely work and stop the invasion".

[OutOfMemory]

Suddenly there are calls for Bitcoin to rocket upwards. Perhaps the Blackrock news set it in motion, but there seems to be a new bullish aroma in the air. Plan B is even telling people to go long with massive leverage, which seems crazy after what we just went through. Seems odd, but maybe he is calling the bottom for people here. I’ll stay away from leverage personally, but do hope the next up cycle is upon us.

Really?
Got a sauce link handy?

EDIT: Other good analysts who called the $69k top, for example, say that BTC will go sideways below $30k until 2024...
I don't know... Probably King Daddy will do some other thing.

Part of the reason that I strive to gravitate to around 50/50 regarding a lot of my anticipations continues to be difficulties to really know anything with much of any certainty, yet at the same time, for anyone with even half a brain, it should be difficult to buy into any ideas of BTC maintaining prices at or below the 200-week moving average for significant periods of time - absent some kind of information that something is broken in my lil precious.  We do not really have that kind of news in recent times

- even though we do have news that a lot of folks had been engaging in double, triple, quadruple and even much higher quantities that I cannot even count of the quantities of bitcoin that they had and then presenting that information to other people (who believed them) in order to get more bitcoin while offering "yield" on an asset that is designed to pump forever.

Sure, discovery of those kinds of arrangements can contribute towards causing the BTC price to go crashing down to ungodly levels, yet there are ways that bearwhales can also end up getting caught up on the other side of those kinds of trades, too... So it does not seem sustainable to be betting in only one direction when BTC prices have already been gravitating below, at or near the 200-week moving average - for nearly 2 months now.. and sure maybe a break-out to the upside will not be sustainable (aka a dead cat bounce), yet I have never heard of a dead king daddy.. I mean I have heard of it for sure (around a few hundred times-ish), but I have not seen such a thing play out in reality (so far).

Edit:  Whoops.  I forgot to mention, which was one of my main inspirations to response to this post in a kind of timely manner...  We have the close of the weekly candle that is coming within about 5 hours of the time of this post - so accordingly,  the BTC price has been hovering in the lower  $23ks for a couple of hours.. but really for about the past three days.. and largely this seems to be contributing to a potential nail-biter in the remaining hours regarding whether or not this week's candle is going to be red or green - and so we are going to need BTC prices to be at least $23,287 in order for this week's candle to end up green..   Bite your nails if you must....  I am not going to say.. and maybe it does not even matter very much so long as the BTC price closes right around the lower $23ks or the upper $22ks.. and our 200-week moving average is just about to touch upon $22,900 as well.. slowly gravitating UPpity - $10-ish per day these days.

Just read that edit in the reply...
However, all is true, imho. Regarding half-a-brains, it seems to me it's a requirement (less than half a brain) to blindly follow influencers and shitcoin jesuses (pun intended).
For me, as the passive hodler, it's quite interesting to come across these opposing predictions, made by reputable, experienced persons that are analysing the market for longer times. I am curious how the next year or so will play out, and i can't even choose which "side" to favor. Not that all of the people i was writing about (PlanB included) always called the future correctly, but more so about the majority of their predictions were correct, at least sort of, for example when ranges were called, which are much easier to hit than exact prices.
Still, interesting, interesting. Something for my mind to hang on to. Like sports analysts, talking about future matches, calling their favourites and sometimes results. I just enjoy watching the game, without throwing my money at the sports betting business  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Just read that edit in the reply...
However, all is true, imho. Regarding half-a-brains, it seems to me it's a requirement (less than half a brain) to blindly follow influencers and shitcoin jesuses (pun intended).
For me, as the passive hodler, it's quite interesting to come across these opposing predictions, made by reputable, experienced persons that are analysing the market for longer times. I am curious how the next year or so will play out, and i can't even choose which "side" to favor. Not that all of the people i was writing about (PlanB included) always called the future correctly, but more so about the majority of their predictions were correct, at least sort of, for example when ranges were called, which are much easier to hit than exact prices.
Still, interesting, interesting. Something for my mind to hang on to. Like sports analysts, talking about future matches, calling their favourites and sometimes results. I just enjoy watching the game, without throwing my money at the sports betting business  

Yes.. it is kind of funny that folks allow themselves to get overly reckt when maybe they could have just got a little reckt..  like those of us HODLers who largely just held through this 75%-ish correction..

So for sure, I had been inclined to put a quite a bit of credence in the stock to flow model as well as the 4-year fractal and the exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects, and I have not even backed away from considering that those models are still validly underlying bitcoin's price dynamics - without necessarily getting caught up into the specifics regarding what ends up happening in the short-term - or that stock to flow is making way more sense if it gets shifted down on the curve because it is going to be much more difficult to get an average of $100k for this whole 4-year halvening period - even though $50k could still be doable.. hahahahahaha...

Now whether we measure our current slump (doldrums) from the BTC drop below $28k around 2 months ago or we go back to the earlier drop below $35k about 3 months ago, either way we are still in a pickle in regards to how long might it take to get out of these doldrums.. and is there more DOWNity to come or not..

I will admit again that I had to remove some of my buy orders for nearly two days during that first drop below $20k and down to $17,593 - so I did end up buying in the $19ks, missed my then buy order in the $18ks and the one that I removed in the $17ks would not have ended up triggering anyhow... but there was a bit of a nervous time even for yours truly in terms of having to regroup to a certain degree....

So having had nearly 2 months to regroup, there could be some abilities to regain cockiness - but at the same time, still not really knowing if whatever regrouping had been adequate.. and so sure, each of us likely go through various kinds of trade-off calculations regarding how much BTC we buy with any incoming cashflow if we have any, did we feel that we had to rejigger any of our cashflow and/or assets that we have, and how much dry powder do we consider to be reasonable to maintain in case the BTC price drops lower.. and surely sometimes we will make choices that end up precluding us from having to attempt to go through some of the calculations, and we will just conclude our course of action to be good enough...

.. but yeah, only time is going to tell us if the BTC price goes up from here or not.. but time still might not tell us whether we made the right choices in terms of balancing our psychology and/or finances - merely if we ended up guessing correctly about BTC's short to medium term price direction for some of us who might not choose to sufficiently/adequately prepare for either direction - while at the same time, even if there is a kind of feeling of prepared for either direction, the resources still may well not (and probably should not) be stacked in ways that are equal.. so a lot of folks can end up screwing up in those kinds of calculations and balances and/or even misreading what I am saying by having 50/50 BTC/cash.. and that would likely not be the correct allocation answer for many folks absent going through individual particular analysis of cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

[348Judah]

Suddenly there are calls for Bitcoin to rocket upwards. Perhaps the Blackrock news set it in motion, but there seems to be a new bullish aroma in the air. Plan B is even telling people to go long with massive leverage, which seems crazy after what we just went through. Seems odd, but maybe he is calling the bottom for people here. I’ll stay away from leverage personally, but do hope the next up cycle is upon us.

Without doubt there will soon be an up rise in bitcoin but what's in my own fear is the doubt i have for it reaching ATH which is $68k this year, it may rather move near the range as the case maybe, but certainly there will be many experience of bear and bull within and after this.

[Paashaas]

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says.

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia. Yale, working with a team of international economists, has looked past a wall of Russian obfuscation and used real-world data from retailers, energy traders and investors to reveal a picture very different from the rosy image presented by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June. ‘The economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ he told an audience that included a delegation from the Taliban. ‘Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem; the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this… Gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future haven’t come true.’

The Yale study provides the first comprehensive set of data that proves Putin absolutely wrong. Let’s start with the outright lies.
------------
The endgame of this war will be a battle between guns and gas. Putin is gambling that the economic pain of his gas cut-off will break western support for Ukraine before western guns break his army. But sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought. Putin can and does deny that economic pain. But illusion has a price. Economic crisis will soon enough become a political one.

https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1555990540134617088

Remind me again in January when I'm sitting with 10 blankets and 4 hot water bottles about how we need more sanctions placed on Russia because the next round "will definitely work and stop the invasion".

You didn't read ore understand this article. Europe does not want to get blackmailed and showing balls, that will come at the cost of a thougher winter which is doable with gas saving plan.
The transition does not take that long. New liquid gas terminals beeing build. New deals from Azerbeijan/Turkmenistan. U.S turned into 2e world's gas producer shipping it to Europe.
Putin laughs now but not on the longer term.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

Well, if my fridge ever goes on the fritz and/or I need  a hat...I know who to ask...


GO BITCOIN

[Hamza2424]

https://twitter.com/Bitcoinverse_/status/1556328406320644097?t=_9HoAIHbZGsx6QljELiMnw&s=19

Thats the Spirit. Hang on Legends never die.
If a Person had such huge motivation in back 2011 then why Bitcoiners do even care over a short term value movement Hold Your Breathes and flow with it.

[dragonvslinux]

Suddenly there are calls for Bitcoin to rocket upwards. Perhaps the Blackrock news set it in motion, but there seems to be a new bullish aroma in the air.

Yes, this is what happens when Bitcoin begins to form a bottom. If 2019 is anything to go by, then a mini bull-run is a strong possibility. Blackrock has nothing to do with it, price barely moved, similar to so-called bearish news (that's completely irrelevant) about Michael Saylor. It's because Bitcoin has been confirming a bottom for the past month, so unsurprising market sentiment is turning bullish in correlation with short-term bullish price action creating higher highs and higher lows. This is commonly known as the disbelief relief rally. Expect it all the way up to $30K imo. Then once the rally is no longer disbelieved, a correction will arrive.

I'm sorry OG, but this isn't rocket science as to what's happening right now, despite the "nothing positive will happen as MtGox coins will crash the market" theory that's currently falling apart.

Plan B is even telling people to go long with massive leverage, which seems crazy after what we just went through. Seems odd, but maybe he is calling the bottom for people here.

He's been calling a bottom since $50K. Eventually he'll get it right given a broken clock is still right twice a day. At least now he is referencing metrics other than S2F to call a bottom.

I’ll stay away from leverage personally, but do hope the next up cycle is upon us.

Likewise. To some degree at least. At least use leverage when the market is under-leveraged long, with a loose stop loss. rather than over-leveraged long with a tight stop loss. Such as now ironically.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.
Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.
If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, if my fridge ever goes on the fritz and/or I need  a hat...I know who to ask...

GO BITCOIN

Agree... accordingly, I kind of appreciate any somewhat detailed self-help story that does not result in immediate death by electrocution or falling objects(appliances), yet even the stories of mangled members (referring to forum peeps - get your mind out of the gutter!!!!) can be interesting too, even if sometimes those stories have their own levels of sadness and/or long recovery times...  (I'm tempted to ride motorcycles too).

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.

God that sounds bearish.


Makes me want to cry.    

I am not even proclaiming that you are being outrageous this time.


I am not even proclaiming that those are still not decent returns compared with any other asset class - but then we need to snap back into reality in terms of what various clown fiats are doing.. and since this is the dollar pair thread, it starts to come off as unrealistic to just presume that the dollar is going to continue to debase at reasonable levels in the coming years - let's say 4 years for our next UP and DOWN cycle to play out - just to give us some framework with which to attempt to work.  

So, we might assert that as long as the dollar's decreasing purchase power can stay well below 10% per year during this upcoming cycle, then bitcoin's toping out at a mere 4x from here would be appreciating more than the dollar would be debasing. but then a $29.6k bottom would not really be keeping up with even a 5% per year dollar debasing.. and I have troubles imagining getting back to lower than 5% per year debasing of the dollar in the next 4 years-ish.  ...

We live in surely crazy times - even to attempt to incorporate our various presumption trade-offs in order to attempt to arrive at apple to apple price comparison attempts.

Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.

I am glad that you talked yourself back into reality.. Those are a bit on the low-side, even though we should attempt to prepare our lil selfies even for the more bearish of possible BTC price performance scenarios.

If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

Now you are talking in terms of a possible more reasonable (less blow-off-ish) top... even though $40k at the halvening (as a kind of base) seems a wee bit bearish-- the halvening is around April 2024.. so that's about 20 months from now.. .. gosh.. 20 months and we get less than a 2x?  That's fine in terms of still likely making money by HODLing cornz, relatively speaking,.. but me wants more cookie.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Ami0]

"Be your own bank" Bitcoin tram in Hong Kong 🇭🇰


https://ibb.co/qmNfRdp

Bitcoin Magazine

[DaRude]

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says.

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia. Yale, working with a team of international economists, has looked past a wall of Russian obfuscation and used real-world data from retailers, energy traders and investors to reveal a picture very different from the rosy image presented by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June. ‘The economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ he told an audience that included a delegation from the Taliban. ‘Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem; the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this… Gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future haven’t come true.’

The Yale study provides the first comprehensive set of data that proves Putin absolutely wrong. Let’s start with the outright lies.
------------
The endgame of this war will be a battle between guns and gas. Putin is gambling that the economic pain of his gas cut-off will break western support for Ukraine before western guns break his army. But sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought. Putin can and does deny that economic pain. But illusion has a price. Economic crisis will soon enough become a political one.

https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1555990540134617088

Remind me again in January when I'm sitting with 10 blankets and 4 hot water bottles about how we need more sanctions placed on Russia because the next round "will definitely work and stop the invasion".

You didn't read ore understand this article. Europe does not want to get blackmailed and showing balls, that will come at the cost of a thougher winter which is doable with gas saving plan.
The transition does not take that long. New liquid gas terminals beeing build. New deals from Azerbeijan/Turkmenistan. U.S turned into 2e world's gas producer shipping it to Europe.
Putin laughs now but not on the longer term.

Russia already began reducing flows to Europe in the second half of 2021, with flows through the three main pipeline routes down around 20% compared with the second half of 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russia-drives-european-gas-prices-2022-01-21/


So looks like Russia has been preparing from 2021.

- According to its Finance Ministry, Russian oil and gas revenues exceeded initial plans by 51.3% in 2021, totalling 9.1 trillion roubles ($119 billion). In October alone, revenues were 1.1 trillion roubles, or almost $500 million per day.

- Total budget revenues reached 25.29 trillion roubles last year, up from 18.72 trillion roubles in 2020.

- The Russian Finance Ministry had initially projected an oil price of $45 per barrel when compiling the budget for 2021. The price has instead averaged $69.
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- The Economy Ministry had expected an average natural gas export price of $156.3 per 1,000 cubic metres in 2021. Russian gas exporting monopoly Gazprom said in December that the price was likely to reach $280, with the final data yet to come.

- According to the central bank, Russia's total exports reached $489.8 billion in 2021. Of that, crude oil accounted for $110.2 billion, oil products for $68.7 billion, pipeline natural gas for $54.2 billion and liquefied natural gas $7.6 billion.
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- Russia ran a historically-high current account surplus of $120.3 billion, equal to 7% of gross domestic product, last year, driven by high gas prices. read more

- Growing volumes and high prices meant that the share of gas in Russia's annual fuel export proceeds increased from historic levels of 15-20% to 23% in 2021, which is still modest compared to oil, ING said in a note.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/

So Russia is running surplus budget with oil at $45 and natural gas at $156,3 per 1.000 cubic meters. Lets check on those prices now, European gas is around $2000, and Russia's Sokol oil is at $88
And out of total of $490B exports, pipeline natural gas accounts makes up only $54B or around 11%. From that Turkey to pay for some Russian gas in rubles: Erdogan and Breaking ranks with EU, Hungary says ready to pay for Russian gas in roubles guessing Belarus and some other countries will continue to buy RU gas.

Ummm ok yeah sure they'll run out of money with these sky high prices willing Turkey India and pissed off China any minute now.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, wants to cease its buying of fossil fuels from Russia before 2030. And it has now presented a new pledge to reduce its purchases of Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year.
...
“We could gradually remove at least 155 billion cubic meters of fossil gas use, which is equivalent to the volume imported from Russia in 2021. Nearly two-thirds of that reduction can be achieved within a year, ending the EU’s overdependence on a single supplier,” the commission said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/eu-pledges-to-cut-russian-gas-imports-by-two-thirds-before-next-winter.html

-Freeze/take all of Russia's international reserves to punish Putin
=Got it
-Make Russia default even though it has money to pay its liabilities
=Hmm Ok
-Europe wants to stop buying Russian gas to punish Putin
=Sure
-Europe can only reduce it's purchase of Russian gas by 2/3 before the end of the year. Any more before the winter and it would devastate Europe
=With you so far, Russia is going to loose 2/3 of gas exports this year and stopping it completely somewhere next year or there about
-If Russia decides to stop remaining 1/3 of the gas they'll be weaponizing gas supplies to Europe and would be financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest
=And that's where i loose you. So Russia should wait till next year to loose remaining 1/3 of it's gas export to Europe on Europe's terms, but loosing it now before winter would be a suicide for Russia? Now, how much lead paint i have to huff for this logic to start making sense?

Edit:wording