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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368952 times)
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August 15, 2022, 05:01:20 PM


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August 15, 2022, 05:05:28 PM

This is very interesting comparison of bitcoin price verses addresses holding more then 10k$ worth of bitcoin.
You can see when price of bitcoin touched 69k$ on 11 Nov 2021, the addresses have gone done. That means Whales were in selling mood at that time. Now as price has gone down, whales are once again accumulating bitcoins.
Key Takeaway: whales are called whales because of this reason.

My few satoshis that I extracted from this graph.



Image source

You and the twitter guy both seem to misinterpret the graph.
It is not the graph of people with more than $10K in a wallet, it is a graph of wallets with more than 10K bitcoin.
Naturally, as the total number of bitcoin got mined from 0% to 90%, the number of such wallets should rise in the graph just like that.
Additionally, one can conclude that large whales were selling/distributing bitcoin since 2016.
Their slice of the pie is melting, which is a natural progression as well, correlating with an exponential increase in wallets containing 0.1-1 btc (shown in prior discussions and here: https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/).
some additional stats are here (check the references as well):
https://bitcoinist.com/how-many-people-actually-have-at-least-1-bitcoin/

Here is what I have to say on this matter.
The graph says "number of addresses with balance >10k" vs "bitcoin price". It doesnt matter how many bitcoin wallet has, a wallet will be counted as long as it has more then balance of 10k. For instance, if wallet has 0.42 bitcoins or more then its counted, as 0.42 bitcoin equals 10,000$ (as of today). On same ground, on 19 Nov 2021 when price of bitcoin was at 69K then those address that have 0.14 or more bitcoins will be included in that graph as on that day 0.14 bitcoins equals 10,000$.

https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/
Data here is about wallets having balance in terms of bitcoins i.e. 0.01 - 0.1 and its prior to June 2021. So we don't have data about how things were when Bitcoin was at its ATH (19 Nov 2021) versus current rate.

I tried to find that myself on glassnode but since I don't have a premium account, I get access to data till 14 August 2021 not latest one.
Again just my few cents that I extracted from my little research. Suggestions / Corrections are welcome.  
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August 15, 2022, 05:06:55 PM


https://twitter.com/AurelienOhayon/status/1558665777510813697?t=51sGy4p07jg9J7pEL-up9w&s=19

here's another picture sighting the bullrun on the 5th times about bitcoin price, but i think we are getting closer than as expected.

That AurelienOhayon dude makes me look like a bigger bear than Proudhon.  He has been a fairly good reverse indicator on the short time frame, lol.

that guy is funny.... he is posting the same stuff over and over again since before the crash:

 "mAsSIvE BuLLrUN iNcOminG" or "gReAt BuLlRuN sTarTS"...  Eventually he will be right one time

Meanwhile you can buy is trading bot for incredible GAAAAAINZ
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August 15, 2022, 05:08:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Least anyone thinks my statements are bearish, I define "more sideways" as any price between where we are now and $40k.

I would say that is pretty fkn bullish.

Don't lump me in with the "WhE ArE GoInG tO CrASh BeLOw $17K !!!!" nutters, pls.    Roll Eyes

Although I stand by what I said: no new bullrun possible with a) Fed still raising rates and b) China economy still crashing.

The Fed is playing a game of chicken with EM on rates:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-unexpectedly-cuts-rates-terrible-econ-data-confirms-alarming-slowdown-yields-plunge

China and others will soon cave.
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August 15, 2022, 05:17:36 PM


Least anyone thinks my statements are bearish, I define "more sideways" as any price between where we are now and $40k.

I would say that is pretty fkn bullish.

Don't lump me in with the "WhE ArE GoInG tO CrASh BeLOw $17K !!!!" nutters, pls.    Roll Eyes

Although I stand by what I said: no new bullrun possible with a) Fed still raising rates and b) China economy still crashing.

I know I know...

I merited it for the nice meming skills, not for the precision of the content Cheesy
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August 15, 2022, 05:35:23 PM

This is very interesting comparison of bitcoin price verses addresses holding more then 10k$ worth of bitcoin.
You can see when price of bitcoin touched 69k$ on 11 Nov 2021, the addresses have gone done. That means Whales were in selling mood at that time. Now as price has gone down, whales are once again accumulating bitcoins.
Key Takeaway: whales are called whales because of this reason.

My few satoshis that I extracted from this graph.



Image source

You and the twitter guy both seem to misinterpret the graph.
It is not the graph of people with more than $10K in a wallet, it is a graph of wallets with more than 10K bitcoin.
Naturally, as the total number of bitcoin got mined from 0% to 90%, the number of such wallets should rise in the graph just like that.
Additionally, one can conclude that large whales were selling/distributing bitcoin since 2016.
Their slice of the pie is melting, which is a natural progression as well, correlating with an exponential increase in wallets containing 0.1-1 btc (shown in prior discussions and here: https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/).
some additional stats are here (check the references as well):
https://bitcoinist.com/how-many-people-actually-have-at-least-1-bitcoin/

Here is what I have to say on this matter.
The graph says "number of addresses with balance >10k" vs "bitcoin price". It doesnt matter how many bitcoin wallet has, a wallet will be counted as long as it has more then balance of 10k. For instance, if wallet has 0.42 bitcoins or more then its counted, as 0.42 bitcoin equals 10,000$ (as of today). On same ground, on 19 Nov 2021 when price of bitcoin was at 69K then those address that have 0.14 or more bitcoins will be included in that graph as on that day 0.14 bitcoins equals 10,000$.

https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/
Data here is about wallets having balance in terms of bitcoins i.e. 0.01 - 0.1 and its prior to June 2021. So we don't have data about how things were when Bitcoin was at its ATH (19 Nov 2021) versus current rate.

I tried to find that myself on glassnode but since I don't have a premium account, I get access to data till 14 August 2021 not latest one.
Again just my few cents that I extracted from my little research. Suggestions / Corrections are welcome.  


On the left is the number of wallets...on the right is the price.
Does the number 100, 60, 40...say anything.? Of course it does..it says that they are talking about the number of wallets with >10K bitcoins (not $$).
Do you think that there are only about 100 wallets with more than $10K?
Of course, not, there are probably about a million of such wallets according to https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
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August 15, 2022, 05:37:53 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The broker has 3.6 million users and its new trading platform developed in partnership with the Nasdaq can scale to support one million users for bitcoin trading.



Source
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August 15, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), buwaytress (2), CLS63 (1)

Not seen any WO bro’s throw the sign for a while. Here I am at Anfield, game kicks off in just over an hour. I noticed Wasabi have a small partnership with LFC which is kinda cool.



(Phone signal awful in these seats. Sorry for poor quality image)
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August 15, 2022, 05:53:55 PM

I noticed Wasabi have a small partnership with LFC which is kinda cool.



(Phone signal awful in these seats. Sorry for poor quality image)
I thought Wasabi Wallet lol.
It partnered long ago.
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August 15, 2022, 05:54:14 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

63 days bottoming.
 
If this trend of shortening bottoms is to have any validity then something should start to happen this week.


https://mobile.twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1559186990792413184
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August 15, 2022, 06:04:58 PM


Explanation
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August 15, 2022, 06:23:42 PM

The football team Villarreal CF has made it to the bitcoin level with a sign up with zoomex, a cryptocurrency exchange for sponsorship, i can't imagine how wide the adoption will go in sport game clubs with the use of bitcoin in making their payments transactions with players.
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1559166222641631233?t=Mo4nVl-71M_IWNHPfTQYsQ&s=19
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August 15, 2022, 06:29:43 PM
Last edit: August 15, 2022, 06:59:56 PM by WatChe


On the left is the number of wallets...on the right is the price.
Does the number 100, 60, 40...say anything.? Of course it does..it says that they are talking about the number of wallets with >10K bitcoins (not $$).
Do you think that there are only about 100 wallets with more than $10K?
Of course, not, there are probably about a million of such wallets according to https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Yes I have to agree with your argument. Thank you for correcting me.






Bitcoin is everywhere!


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1558888028298412033?t=Cgu02NClD9f6RnR0ToaPDg&s=19

this is how we roll... bitcoin is irresistible, bitcoin is everywhere, clear your doubts about it and join the train to invest today.

old one...  Roll Eyes





Image source
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August 15, 2022, 07:04:52 PM


Explanation
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August 15, 2022, 07:20:16 PM
Last edit: August 15, 2022, 07:38:06 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1)

here's how Greg Foss make his own explanation mathematically about bitcoin used as global asset and his concluding approach towards the increase in bitcoin and its adoption as it increases in value from the global asset gradually against all other forms of assets

https://twitter.com/mcshane_writes/status/1558946443506982914?t=S1yimfZIsRZnUCbXcFxnnA&s=19
less of the talks, the conclusion is just make sure you buy bitcoin.

Perhaps members here would send you more smerits if you tried to make your images more presentable?  size.

For sure that infographic makes sense if you know what Foss's argument is.

So he is asserting that the whole current addressable market of value that bitcoin could represent is $900 trillion, and if bitcoin were to capture 5% of that addressable market, then bitcoin would be worth $210k at this time.  

Yet our current bitcoin price is quite a bit below $210k, which means that you should continue to buy bitcoin.  

on the other hand, if you do not believe the model, then you better rethink your thinkings about the model because it is fairly conservative model (and still buy bitcoin while you are rethinking your model.. hahahahaha)  

It's a great argument, once you understand it... and that graph is a wee bit mathematical.. but if you continue to think about what it means, then it should start to make sense for anyone who is older that 10 years old (presumably able to employ logic.. hahahaha and some folks younger than 10 years old should be able to understand these kinds of concepts and logic, too).

The current failure to capture & subsequently hodl $25,000 doesn’t fill me with confidence that the bottom is in. I would advise you all to have dry powder loaded on exchanges for potential lower lows. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

Honeybadger will wake up & start going on a tear but maybe not for a year or more.

Sure no problem.. .but pee pare ur lil selfie for UP, too..

In other words, be careful in terms of overly preparing for a DOWN that may or may not end up happening.

Remember $4k in 2019.... there was a bit of dancing around before the BTC price finally broke above it.

I surely have buy orders down to around $13k, but it is quite possible that we will never see sub 200-week moving average, ever again (I mean in this cycle).

Remember 2015?

We spent more than 8 months largely around mid-$200s, and we had one test of $300 in July, yet in January 2015 we had a dip down to around $150... and then again in August we had another test of $200.. but it did not really break below $200, but it sure felt dire and low to get a second test of down around 8 months after the first test of down.. and those kinds of test are not inevitable, even if they happen, and there were still quite a few folks who failed to prepare for UP during that time, and any coins that you bought through most of 2015 would have been good to buy even if your confidence was not that great and even if you might have had some cash in reserves just in case the BTC price dropped lower..

so it was not completely easy to get back above $300.. but it ended up happening. and then those sub $300 prices were not even available.. and the same ended up being true for sub $500 coins in May 2016.. so the dire gloom about dips being inevitable or having high odds of happening should not preclude you from making sure that you are prepared for up (even if you are simultaneously preparing for down (just in case))...



Fuck crypto.

The current failure to capture & subsequently hodl $25,000 doesn’t fill me with confidence that the bottom is in. I would advise you all to have dry powder loaded on exchanges for potential lower lows. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

Honeybadger will wake up & start going on a tear but maybe not for a year or more.
Would love to see around $12k-$13k though I have started buying ever since it got down to $17k.

Hopefully you are prepared for Up too, little mouse.. just in case your downity prayer does not end up happening as you be hopening.

Lot's of people end up fucking themselves when they either get too greedy in their downity preparations.. and at the same time failing/refusing to do the prudent things, such as DCAing or at least having some preparations for UP.. rather than hoping for a bargain that may well not end up happening... and you might even be lucky to get any more coins below the 200-week moving average which is at about $23k right now.

The current failure to capture & subsequently hodl $25,000 doesn’t fill me with confidence that the bottom is in. I would advise you all to have dry powder loaded on exchanges for potential lower lows. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

Honeybadger will wake up & start going on a tear but maybe not for a year or more.

I would normally disregard such a bearish post by LFCB but taking into account the guy almost caught the previous ATH and cashed out near the top this makes me feel concerned. Selling now and buying back at $17k-$15k-$13k seems too easy to be true. Easy money. What if there will be no last bottom as there was no blowoff top? Play safe and hodl or gamble?  Undecided

Horey sheit.. !!

anyone selling to buy back lower is dumb as fuck.

Even though there are ways to shave some of while the price is going up to have insurance in case it goes down.. but that is a different story than any kind of need to be selling large portions of your stash at these prices.

On the other hand: Do whatever the fuck you want.  Sell all your BTC waiting for the price to make a lower low (such as sub $17,593), and have fun staying poor..   even waiting for sub 200-week moving average or alternatively sub $21k could end in the same results.. the HFSP results.
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August 15, 2022, 07:29:20 PM



Well-deserved!  Grin
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Explanation
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Quote
[Perhaps members here would send you more smerits if you tried to make your images more presentable?  size.

Thanks for the observation


As a bitcoiner what else could i have anticipated for than the real candle stick with bitcoin, in knowing this, which is the only legitimate night to candle with bitcoin while other candle remain an alternative.



every monday is a good day for a start of business for the week, here we are on to it.
best night, watch candle with bitcoin.
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Explanation
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