Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

+1 WOsmerit

looks good...high probability of a return to channel imo

my two sats worth of arbitrary lines


dyor

slight logarithmic skew between daily and weekly periods
D


W



stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

NOTtening...

[...]

Epic!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rat03gopoh]

I've been speculating a lot lately especially about what might happen when BTC150k140k compensation is released to MtGox victims. What calms me down a bit is (in my mind) they're not going back to the spot market to make a big dump. To be sure each of them has a large number of bitcoins and worries it will be a problem a second time when they transfer everything to a centralized entity that is more bureaucratic than in previous years.

I doubt that the individual holders would create much if any negative pressures on price; however, there have been some centralized entities that bought thousands and thousands of claims, so the centralized entities will be receiving BIG stashes and had previously stated that they would dump - but saying you will dump and actually dumping might be two different stories.

Found one, you mean like Fortress?

Wall also said that some people have chosen to sell their claims to Fortress

I haven't learned how this business service works, I think they have offered themselves to MtGox as a repayment line.

This means it won't change previous concerns that lenders will pool their bitcoins mostly back into one service although the way compensation will be distributed will be gradual.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobtc]

At one time, I though Kracken was "the place" where Gox coins were going to be released to. Is that still the case?

[savetherainforest]

I couldn't see sh!t. Sry.Not Sry!      

[Gachapin]

I am a bit confused that they are actually going to release the MtGox coins on the same day that the scam coin (aka ethereum) is going to have its shitshow merge fork?  What could go wrong with that?

Such a coincidence...

can't help putting my tinfoil hat on:  


I could imagine *they* gonna pump meth and dump BTC in order to encourage the narrative of a flippening again.
 
The MSM will then be very happy to inform^tm everybody that the market has chosen the POS coin over the POW coin, because it is now environmentally friendly and that's the way to go.  They will smear Bitcoin and POW.  

Narrative:  "investors have chosen:  POW coin bad = go down in price... POS coin good = go up in price... "


Fuck... it actually looks quite realistic

[Republikcoin.com]

I believe that, a lot of speculation about in 2024/25 bitcoin will explode maybe our plans will be longer considering the bitcoin limit will never stop rising.

Speculating about the future I think explosions are bound to happen like rockets.
Oh my friend at least 1 btc in 2024/25 that I want to have for the achievement.

If your only target is to have 1 BTC in 2024 - 2025, then try to set aside your money from now on slowly by buying Bitcoin in the market. Because over time the amount of your Bitcoin will definitely become more and will be more than 1 BTC if you don't hesitate to buy it from now on to keep it until that year. Because I also think that prices that are still relatively cheap like now will not last too long on Bitcoin.

[Uang_kartal]

~Snip~
'splain ur selfie a wee bit MOAR better.

 

What's your references?  Context?

i drew with tradingview.com sir.hehe for my new journal for a correction as you question.this is interesting because it's new.and learn from the thread you responded to before here.i learned to observe just a few months with tens dollars that I have. and the initial steps of this thread are so helpful. honestly the bitcoin chart is making me bored for a while. maybe usd and stable coins have not been touched while waiting for DCA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

uliepooie the WE are is a humanity as one wholeness.. but some are not part of our humanity so.. i dunno ? 



Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..


The sinners' world is full of hate and copy paste

[cAPSLOCK]

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?

As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

"The purchasing power of a currency is the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one unit of the currency."Source

The purchasing power of USD has gone down over years due to printing of more and more USD currency notes. The decreasing purchasing power of USD can be seen from the fact that 1 USD in 1913 is equal to 26 USD in 2020.
In 1933, 10 beer bottles can be bought with 1 USD and in 2020 you can buy just a cup of coffee with 1 USD.
In 2022,
One can easily correlate his local currency with this USD decreasing purchasing power since the phenomena is same for all fiat currency. For example, in my country I can buy 1 large bread for 40 Pakistani Rupee 10 years ago, today its price is 120 Pakistani Rupee.
Only between 1929-1933 the purchasing power of USD increases due to deflation and reduction in new currency supply by 31%.
As governments print more and more currency notes without any barrier the purchasing power of currency is deemed to go down.



Image and info source

 In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

The ban was enforced from 1920 to 1933. I can't say whether stats mentioned about beer are correct or not but there is a consent that purchasing power of every currency including US dollar has gone down over time because of uncontrolled printing of money.
If you don't like beer example, I have given you example of bread also. It was 40 Pakistani Rupees ten years back and from same store I am buying it on 120 Pakistani Rupee right now.
There are many such examples that can prove the decreasing purchasing of a currency over time.


Naan (a type of bread commonly used during breakfast, lunch n dinner in Pakistan) price was 2 Pakistani Rupee in 2000 now 20 Pakistani Rupee.

Image source

 It's not that I don't believe you; there's no doubt that the sovereign currencies of every country have seen their purchasing power diminish over the years - some more than others.  My point was that selecting one specific product to demonstrate inflationary effects will not give an accurate depiction (while also trying to inject some humour into the board).  For example, it cost ~$2300 (tax included (which was 7%)) for my first ever home computer nearly 40 years ago.  It was a Commodore 64 with a 13" colour monitor and a 5.25" external floppy drive.  The latest computer I bought cost me ~$1500 (tax included (which is now 13%) and electronics disposal fee(which is some bullshit)) and even though it's a laptop, it has a much larger screen with much higher resolution and colour depth, 256 times the memory, infinitely more internal storage, a cool lighted RGB keyboard and as an added bonus, it conforms to the MIL-STD-810H spec.  The dollar's purchasing power for computing devices seems to have increased!

[348Judah]

I couldn't see sh!t. Sry.Not Sry!      

You could have just resize the picture when making your quote