Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.
Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.
If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, if my fridge ever goes on the fritz and/or I need  a hat...I know who to ask...

GO BITCOIN

Agree... accordingly, I kind of appreciate any somewhat detailed self-help story that does not result in immediate death by electrocution or falling objects(appliances), yet even the stories of mangled members (referring to forum peeps - get your mind out of the gutter!!!!) can be interesting too, even if sometimes those stories have their own levels of sadness and/or long recovery times...  (I'm tempted to ride motorcycles too).

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.

God that sounds bearish.


Makes me want to cry.    

I am not even proclaiming that you are being outrageous this time.


I am not even proclaiming that those are still not decent returns compared with any other asset class - but then we need to snap back into reality in terms of what various clown fiats are doing.. and since this is the dollar pair thread, it starts to come off as unrealistic to just presume that the dollar is going to continue to debase at reasonable levels in the coming years - let's say 4 years for our next UP and DOWN cycle to play out - just to give us some framework with which to attempt to work.  

So, we might assert that as long as the dollar's decreasing purchase power can stay well below 10% per year during this upcoming cycle, then bitcoin's toping out at a mere 4x from here would be appreciating more than the dollar would be debasing. but then a $29.6k bottom would not really be keeping up with even a 5% per year dollar debasing.. and I have troubles imagining getting back to lower than 5% per year debasing of the dollar in the next 4 years-ish.  ...

We live in surely crazy times - even to attempt to incorporate our various presumption trade-offs in order to attempt to arrive at apple to apple price comparison attempts.

Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.

I am glad that you talked yourself back into reality.. Those are a bit on the low-side, even though we should attempt to prepare our lil selfies even for the more bearish of possible BTC price performance scenarios.

If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

Now you are talking in terms of a possible more reasonable (less blow-off-ish) top... even though $40k at the halvening (as a kind of base) seems a wee bit bearish-- the halvening is around April 2024.. so that's about 20 months from now.. .. gosh.. 20 months and we get less than a 2x?  That's fine in terms of still likely making money by HODLing cornz, relatively speaking,.. but me wants more cookie.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Ami0]

"Be your own bank" Bitcoin tram in Hong Kong 🇭🇰


https://ibb.co/qmNfRdp

Bitcoin Magazine

[DaRude]

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says.

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia. Yale, working with a team of international economists, has looked past a wall of Russian obfuscation and used real-world data from retailers, energy traders and investors to reveal a picture very different from the rosy image presented by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June. ‘The economic blitzkrieg against Russia never had any chances of success,’ he told an audience that included a delegation from the Taliban. ‘Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem; the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this… Gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future haven’t come true.’

The Yale study provides the first comprehensive set of data that proves Putin absolutely wrong. Let’s start with the outright lies.
------------
The endgame of this war will be a battle between guns and gas. Putin is gambling that the economic pain of his gas cut-off will break western support for Ukraine before western guns break his army. But sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought. Putin can and does deny that economic pain. But illusion has a price. Economic crisis will soon enough become a political one.

https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1555990540134617088

Remind me again in January when I'm sitting with 10 blankets and 4 hot water bottles about how we need more sanctions placed on Russia because the next round "will definitely work and stop the invasion".

You didn't read ore understand this article. Europe does not want to get blackmailed and showing balls, that will come at the cost of a thougher winter which is doable with gas saving plan.
The transition does not take that long. New liquid gas terminals beeing build. New deals from Azerbeijan/Turkmenistan. U.S turned into 2e world's gas producer shipping it to Europe.
Putin laughs now but not on the longer term.

Russia already began reducing flows to Europe in the second half of 2021, with flows through the three main pipeline routes down around 20% compared with the second half of 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russia-drives-european-gas-prices-2022-01-21/


So looks like Russia has been preparing from 2021.

- According to its Finance Ministry, Russian oil and gas revenues exceeded initial plans by 51.3% in 2021, totalling 9.1 trillion roubles ($119 billion). In October alone, revenues were 1.1 trillion roubles, or almost $500 million per day.

- Total budget revenues reached 25.29 trillion roubles last year, up from 18.72 trillion roubles in 2020.

- The Russian Finance Ministry had initially projected an oil price of $45 per barrel when compiling the budget for 2021. The price has instead averaged $69.
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- The Economy Ministry had expected an average natural gas export price of $156.3 per 1,000 cubic metres in 2021. Russian gas exporting monopoly Gazprom said in December that the price was likely to reach $280, with the final data yet to come.

- According to the central bank, Russia's total exports reached $489.8 billion in 2021. Of that, crude oil accounted for $110.2 billion, oil products for $68.7 billion, pipeline natural gas for $54.2 billion and liquefied natural gas $7.6 billion.
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- Russia ran a historically-high current account surplus of $120.3 billion, equal to 7% of gross domestic product, last year, driven by high gas prices. read more

- Growing volumes and high prices meant that the share of gas in Russia's annual fuel export proceeds increased from historic levels of 15-20% to 23% in 2021, which is still modest compared to oil, ING said in a note.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/

So Russia is running surplus budget with oil at $45 and natural gas at $156,3 per 1.000 cubic meters. Lets check on those prices now, European gas is around $2000, and Russia's Sokol oil is at $88
And out of total of $490B exports, pipeline natural gas accounts makes up only $54B or around 11%. From that Turkey to pay for some Russian gas in rubles: Erdogan and Breaking ranks with EU, Hungary says ready to pay for Russian gas in roubles guessing Belarus and some other countries will continue to buy RU gas.

Ummm ok yeah sure they'll run out of money with these sky high prices willing Turkey India and pissed off China any minute now.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, wants to cease its buying of fossil fuels from Russia before 2030. And it has now presented a new pledge to reduce its purchases of Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year.
...
“We could gradually remove at least 155 billion cubic meters of fossil gas use, which is equivalent to the volume imported from Russia in 2021. Nearly two-thirds of that reduction can be achieved within a year, ending the EU’s overdependence on a single supplier,” the commission said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/eu-pledges-to-cut-russian-gas-imports-by-two-thirds-before-next-winter.html

-Freeze/take all of Russia's international reserves to punish Putin
=Got it
-Make Russia default even though it has money to pay its liabilities
=Hmm Ok
-Europe wants to stop buying Russian gas to punish Putin
=Sure
-Europe can only reduce it's purchase of Russian gas by 2/3 before the end of the year. Any more before the winter and it would devastate Europe
=With you so far, Russia is going to loose 2/3 of gas exports this year and stopping it completely somewhere next year or there about
-If Russia decides to stop remaining 1/3 of the gas they'll be weaponizing gas supplies to Europe and would be financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest
=And that's where i loose you. So Russia should wait till next year to loose remaining 1/3 of it's gas export to Europe on Europe's terms, but loosing it now before winter would be a suicide for Russia? Now, how much lead paint i have to huff for this logic to start making sense?

Edit:wording

[cAPSLOCK]

Deej is officially dead...  If you know you know.  It was a good run.  Only dust in the wind now.  Long live jeed.

[Gachapin]

https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/wfprh5/babys_first_recession/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the Sunday evening wall report


dyor


daily and weekly moving average review


the fifty day moving average showing inflection at $21,576.18
D


still hodling two hundred week moving average support...not bad and could lead to better
W


clouds and what nots

declining short term resistance meeting rising mid term support
4h


tacking progressing nicely towards the windward side of the break sirs
steady on
D

stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

Now you are talking in terms of a possible more reasonable (less blow-off-ish) top... even though $40k at the halvening (as a kind of base) seems a wee bit bearish-- the halvening is around April 2024.. so that's about 20 months from now.. .. gosh.. 20 months and we get less than a 2x?  That's fine in terms of still likely making money by HODLing cornz, relatively speaking,.. but me wants more cookie.

You can put me in the same bearish boat for early 2024, despite being quite bullish for the short to mid-term, even thinking we can reach $40K to $50K within a few months now if the bottom is in (which I think it is) for a decent dead cat bounce. But otherwise after this relief rally I only see a years worth of corrective consolidation to come, even if a new ATH is made, similar to 2019-2020 price movements. Totally boring I know, but price will still need considerable time to consolidate the move from $10K to $69K, as well back down to $17.5K, in order to move higher again, now those "extremes" have happened within a short time-frame.

The only difference is considering that the bull-run could start very end of 2023, 6 months prior to the halving, given the recent cycle top and current bottom is about 6 months in advance than the usual 4 year cycle. And I'm certainly no cycle purist anymore, that shit is breaking. Also means front-running the halving which is overdue. The worst thing about being at $40K in 2024 would be seeing these prices again in 2022, then in 2023, and finally by 2024. It will eventually become the new norm accumulation price. Remember those juicy $6K to $8K prices we saw in 2018, then in 2019, then finally again in 2020? That will be the new $40K for those who didn't manage to get sub $30K eventually, all being well of course. Until then, it'll just be a good time to stack stats while price goes up, down and then sideways imo.

[JayJuanGee]

In order to avoid too much of a double post, I posted my response to the below article in another thread….

https://news.bitcoin.com/voyager-to-allow-cash-withdrawals-for-customers-with-us-dollars-held-in-accounts/

Here are the bullet points that I found most interesting:

>>>>>>>
● On August 4, 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported that Judge Michael Wiles of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York approved the release of $270 million in cash deposits held by Metropolitan Commercial bank (MCB).
......

● “We anticipate resuming access to the Voyager app for cash withdrawals only, starting on Thursday, August 11th,” Voyager said on Friday. “Customers with cash (U.S. dollars) in their accounts will receive an email with more details before cash withdrawal access in the app becomes available.”

● At the same time, Voyager is “simultaneously pursuing a standalone restructuring process and a potential sale of the company.” Bidding for the company begins on August 26 and the sale hearing will be “held on September 8th.”
<<<<<<<

To see if anyone responds in that other thread.  Maybe it is futile?  I don’t know.. but at least you just need to click on my link and respond in that other thread if you so brave and bold (fortune favors the brave) to go to another thread within the forum for this.. otherwise.. just post here.. whatever…

So long as not pumping shitcoins, I don’t disagree with one-stop-shopping within the forum for WO members, or even discussing which brand of spark plugs (or are they called glow plugs?) that you chose to put in your 1992 Volvo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

........
The only difference is considering that the bull-run could start very end of 2023, 6 months prior to the halving, given the recent cycle top and current bottom is about 6 months in advance than the usual 4 year cycle. And I'm certainly no cycle purist anymore, that shit is breaking. Also means front-running the halving which is overdue.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying dragonvslinux in terms of outlining some scenarios that could well end up playing out (even if they might be a wee bit more bearish than my thinkenings on the topic, yet I do consider your statement about not being a "cycle purist" is worth addressing - since members here frequently see me talking about both the stock to flow model and the four-year cycle, and in essence it is a bit redundant to refer to both of them within one breath as if they were two separate concepts since the four-year fractal is largely already contained within the stock to flow framework, and also even likely within my frequent reference to exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects would not seem correct to be assuming that any exponential s-curve would be negated merely because it does not go straight up, so in that sense there is a bit of a presumption of the 4-year cycle that should be coupled as being included within such exponential s-curve adoption framework.

Of course, there are some very reasonable regular OG guys participating in this thread who seem to proclaim quite a bit of rigidity in terms of some of these kinds of 4-year fractal timelines, and surely so far they have been coming out pretty damned correct in employing those seemingly unreasonable rigidities, and surely I do not even consider myself to be one of those cats..... but I still want to suggest that from my perspective it still seems to be a better practice to keep some of these various models in mind, such as the four year fractal and the stock to flow model - even if bitcoin is not very rigid in terms of following such strictness and like you suggest such timelines can end up being front run or even having delayed outcomes while at the same time still serving as a foundation until any potential (if any) new model were to begin to rise from the ashes (phoenix?) its place. .. whether a comprehensive new model or some hybrid.. and from my perspective until such model is dead it continues to serve as part of the framework that is best to continue to consider instead of completely poo-pooing it and proclaiming that "we are free" from such model(s) (inventing your own pie in the sky models that are detached from reality.. not exactly saying that is what you are doing even though it could be the result of completely rejecting certain models that still contribute towards BTC price dynamics, even if in a lesser way). which is likely not the case..

Does this lady protesting too much?  hahahaha..   -  Hamlet.

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[First Registration]

Nayib #Bukele, president of El Salvador, stated that the growth of the tourism industry was the consequence of three key factors: #bitcoin, the promotion of surf, and the reduction of crime.

Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YinShuiSiYuan]

Nayib #Bukele, president of El Salvador, stated that the growth of the tourism industry was the consequence of three key factors: #bitcoin, the promotion of surf, and the reduction

Source

I read that too somewhere. It's good to see positive outcomes after El declare bitcoin as legal tender. Though there is list circulating that El is the most favorable country in 2022 to go bankrupt like Srilanka. IMF and other big banks are not in favour of El because of there pro bitcoin policy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation