Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Deej is officially dead...  If you know you know.  It was a good run.  Only dust in the wind now.  Long live jeed.

[1715137493]

1715137493

[Gachapin]

https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/wfprh5/babys_first_recession/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the Sunday evening wall report


dyor


daily and weekly moving average review


the fifty day moving average showing inflection at $21,576.18
D


still hodling two hundred week moving average support...not bad and could lead to better
W


clouds and what nots

declining short term resistance meeting rising mid term support
4h


tacking progressing nicely towards the windward side of the break sirs
steady on
D

stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

Now you are talking in terms of a possible more reasonable (less blow-off-ish) top... even though $40k at the halvening (as a kind of base) seems a wee bit bearish-- the halvening is around April 2024.. so that's about 20 months from now.. .. gosh.. 20 months and we get less than a 2x?  That's fine in terms of still likely making money by HODLing cornz, relatively speaking,.. but me wants more cookie.

You can put me in the same bearish boat for early 2024, despite being quite bullish for the short to mid-term, even thinking we can reach $40K to $50K within a few months now if the bottom is in (which I think it is) for a decent dead cat bounce. But otherwise after this relief rally I only see a years worth of corrective consolidation to come, even if a new ATH is made, similar to 2019-2020 price movements. Totally boring I know, but price will still need considerable time to consolidate the move from $10K to $69K, as well back down to $17.5K, in order to move higher again, now those "extremes" have happened within a short time-frame.

The only difference is considering that the bull-run could start very end of 2023, 6 months prior to the halving, given the recent cycle top and current bottom is about 6 months in advance than the usual 4 year cycle. And I'm certainly no cycle purist anymore, that shit is breaking. Also means front-running the halving which is overdue. The worst thing about being at $40K in 2024 would be seeing these prices again in 2022, then in 2023, and finally by 2024. It will eventually become the new norm accumulation price. Remember those juicy $6K to $8K prices we saw in 2018, then in 2019, then finally again in 2020? That will be the new $40K for those who didn't manage to get sub $30K eventually, all being well of course. Until then, it'll just be a good time to stack stats while price goes up, down and then sideways imo.

[JayJuanGee]

In order to avoid too much of a double post, I posted my response to the below article in another thread….

https://news.bitcoin.com/voyager-to-allow-cash-withdrawals-for-customers-with-us-dollars-held-in-accounts/

Here are the bullet points that I found most interesting:

>>>>>>>
● On August 4, 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported that Judge Michael Wiles of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York approved the release of $270 million in cash deposits held by Metropolitan Commercial bank (MCB).
......

● “We anticipate resuming access to the Voyager app for cash withdrawals only, starting on Thursday, August 11th,” Voyager said on Friday. “Customers with cash (U.S. dollars) in their accounts will receive an email with more details before cash withdrawal access in the app becomes available.”

● At the same time, Voyager is “simultaneously pursuing a standalone restructuring process and a potential sale of the company.” Bidding for the company begins on August 26 and the sale hearing will be “held on September 8th.”
<<<<<<<

To see if anyone responds in that other thread.  Maybe it is futile?  I don’t know.. but at least you just need to click on my link and respond in that other thread if you so brave and bold (fortune favors the brave) to go to another thread within the forum for this.. otherwise.. just post here.. whatever…

So long as not pumping shitcoins, I don’t disagree with one-stop-shopping within the forum for WO members, or even discussing which brand of spark plugs (or are they called glow plugs?) that you chose to put in your 1992 Volvo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

........
The only difference is considering that the bull-run could start very end of 2023, 6 months prior to the halving, given the recent cycle top and current bottom is about 6 months in advance than the usual 4 year cycle. And I'm certainly no cycle purist anymore, that shit is breaking. Also means front-running the halving which is overdue.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying dragonvslinux in terms of outlining some scenarios that could well end up playing out (even if they might be a wee bit more bearish than my thinkenings on the topic, yet I do consider your statement about not being a "cycle purist" is worth addressing - since members here frequently see me talking about both the stock to flow model and the four-year cycle, and in essence it is a bit redundant to refer to both of them within one breath as if they were two separate concepts since the four-year fractal is largely already contained within the stock to flow framework, and also even likely within my frequent reference to exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects would not seem correct to be assuming that any exponential s-curve would be negated merely because it does not go straight up, so in that sense there is a bit of a presumption of the 4-year cycle that should be coupled as being included within such exponential s-curve adoption framework.

Of course, there are some very reasonable regular OG guys participating in this thread who seem to proclaim quite a bit of rigidity in terms of some of these kinds of 4-year fractal timelines, and surely so far they have been coming out pretty damned correct in employing those seemingly unreasonable rigidities, and surely I do not even consider myself to be one of those cats..... but I still want to suggest that from my perspective it still seems to be a better practice to keep some of these various models in mind, such as the four year fractal and the stock to flow model - even if bitcoin is not very rigid in terms of following such strictness and like you suggest such timelines can end up being front run or even having delayed outcomes while at the same time still serving as a foundation until any potential (if any) new model were to begin to rise from the ashes (phoenix?) its place. .. whether a comprehensive new model or some hybrid.. and from my perspective until such model is dead it continues to serve as part of the framework that is best to continue to consider instead of completely poo-pooing it and proclaiming that "we are free" from such model(s) (inventing your own pie in the sky models that are detached from reality.. not exactly saying that is what you are doing even though it could be the result of completely rejecting certain models that still contribute towards BTC price dynamics, even if in a lesser way). which is likely not the case..

Does this lady protesting too much?  hahahaha..   -  Hamlet.

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[First Registration]

Nayib #Bukele, president of El Salvador, stated that the growth of the tourism industry was the consequence of three key factors: #bitcoin, the promotion of surf, and the reduction of crime.

Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YinShuiSiYuan]

Nayib #Bukele, president of El Salvador, stated that the growth of the tourism industry was the consequence of three key factors: #bitcoin, the promotion of surf, and the reduction

Source

I read that too somewhere. It's good to see positive outcomes after El declare bitcoin as legal tender. Though there is list circulating that El is the most favorable country in 2022 to go bankrupt like Srilanka. IMF and other big banks are not in favour of El because of there pro bitcoin policy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YinShuiSiYuan]

the Sunday evening wall report


dyor


daily and weekly moving average review


the fifty day moving average showing inflection at $21,576.18
D


still hodling two hundred week moving average support...not bad and could lead to better
W


clouds and what nots

declining short term resistance meeting rising mid term support
4h


tacking progressing nicely towards the windward side of the break sirs
steady on
D

stronghands

I am not in charts very much but I have to say that seeing the price of bitcoin its very much clear that bitcoin price from here on will go up. 20k proved to be a vital support for bitcoin and now its very much clear that bitcoin will go up from here only now down. DYOR

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[becoin]

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK.

When facts speak, the gods remain silent. And the facts are quite indicative. The Blitzkrieg against the Russian economy has failed miserably.

[ivomm]

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.
Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.
If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

For me, 70K-100K is a dead zone for two reasons. First, when a new ATH occurs, the FOMO will not allow just a 10%-20% ATH. Second, 100K is a psychological laser focus for many and hardly any hodler will be willing to sell below 100K, especially when we already have an ATH above 80K. So if we have a normal bull market we can expect an ATH above 100K. How far it will go depends on many factors. It is likely that traders will be even more cautious and instead of the previous 3.5x ATH over the old, we will have 1.5-2.5x ATH in the area between 115K and 170K. For me, 170K would be the ideal ATH given the current situation.

And the current situation, we must admit, remains extremely unpredictable. It is not yet clear whether the domino effect has ended and there will be no more bankrupt companies. The whole institutional offensive has yet to be restarted and companies that are not ponzis but real investors, like Microshares, to step up. I personally do not think that in 2 years something will change in this regard. Hopefully the price will keep oscilating between 20K and 40K. The other option of oscilating below 17K will be a complete disaster. In that case, many more investors will capitulate which could further delay the new ATH. This would be something new for Bitcoin and it looks the least probable prediction, but who knows! In any case the ballsy DCAing is the right choice.

[348Judah]

Explanation

Bitcoin is pretty going uptrend this morning, now at $23.7k and is fast increasing, where are the haters that think its sinking down on a shipwreck! The target must beat $24k with all hopes today, those that have invested made the right decision.