Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jl2012]

He would end up with a bit more than 8.672 million USD.

For such amount you can't ignore the slippage

[fotosonics]

Bitcoin will have its day in Congress.

Is that Roosevelt on the right, standing up?

Haha

Yes. There's also no way all these presidents were alive and hanging out together. It is a painting, after all... you can't get too literal because it's clearly not meant as such.

[JorgeStolfi]

For such amount you can't ignore the slippage

That's where being "omnisubtle"  comes in handy. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sidhujag]

Why are there only two cases and why do you believe that a downwards move from here is the end of bitcoin? It could very well recover in some years time.

I said - the speculative weight will bring it down. all the capital is speculative. 99%. if this asset is not performing in 6 months time, the crash will self perpetuate to zero. by then investors could afford to replace it with a new coin. google could pounce on the opportunity, for example. Ripple (although inferior) might hold the fort until bitcoin is dead.

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

[ErisDiscordia]

Would you give up trying to convince everyone that this is the bottom and the reversal is about to happen to a new ATH you clowns. You know very well from these charts that the odds are we are going down even further, below 400, but you're angry because you're stuck in your stubborn HODL position.  I guess HODL isn't so glorious now, is it.

I used to enjoy your TA posts, but ever since you turned bear they've gotten so nasty and bitter, that they just make me cringe 

[chessnut]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin will have its day in Congress.

Is that Roosevelt on the right, standing up?

Haha

Yes. There's also no way all these presidents were alive and hanging out together. It is a painting, after all... you can't get too literal because it's clearly not meant as such.

I like how they have GWB on the left (our right) and JFK on the right.

[chessnut]

hidden sell order on Bitfinex  @457.

[JorgeStolfi]

This gradual upward trend should continue for another 18 hours at least, until the banks reopen on Tuesday morning in China.

After that, if there are no other bad news, or (better) the April 15 rumor is denied, perhaps this trend will continue (or accelerate) up to the range 3000--3500 CNY = 485--570 USD, where it was before the rumor  I do not see why it would rise beyond that.

If the April 15 rumor is confirmed, I expect another substantial drop, perhaps stretched out until that date.  It seems pointless to speculate beyond that, since the shape of the world will have changed.

[MahaRamana]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

[chessnut]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

I 100% agree with you MahaRamana. I was just discussing possible bear scenarios earlier.

[Davyd05]

This gradual upward trend should continue for another 18 hours at least, until the banks reopen on Tuesday morning in China.

After that, if there are no other bad news, or (better) the April 15 rumor is denied, perhaps this trend will continue (or accelerate) up to the range 3000--3500 CNY = 485--570 USD, where it was before the rumor  I do not see why it would rise beyond that.

If the April 15 rumor is confirmed, I expect another substantial drop, perhaps stretched out until that date.  It seems pointless to speculate beyond that, since the shape of the world will have changed.

momentum generally is enough to explain the why in regards to the over shooting. I think the rocket to 1200 was just excess momentum...I thought $1000 in June was uber bullish lol

I guess the holiday leaves us with a little bit more sideways but this time tomorrow we can debate what unfurls

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Todorius]

Btc is worth $10k alone on notary.. now add other use cases.. speculative is a special word here.

in theory, it has huge intrinsic value. but it needs the infrastructure, which it doesn't have right now. I cant think of a single use of bitcoin that can support a price of more than, say, $50 today. speculators exiting the market would crush that price support.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

Exactly. And it is only a matter of time until these massive investments into the infrastructure will reflect in the price. It is utterly ridiculous to think that the price will slowly grind down, never to recover again.

[fonzie]

Price will slowly grind down and never ever recover again. 1000$ was just a hoax.

[chessnut]

Price will slowly grind down and never ever recover again. 1000$ was just a hoax.

Ohk hmm guess I should sell then. thanks for tip.

[JayJuanGee]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  Well, if you look at a one week candle chart, and you look at the rsi, you will see a divergence in this last rally, indicating that the trend is over. This could be seen all the way back in December.

I thought that rallies were coming less than 9 months apart.. and we were expecting the next one to take place sooner.. though maybe it will take 9 months.. maybe a year... and maybe we will go below $400... I think that it would take stagnation for quite a while here (maybe a month) in the mid $400s to maybe cause enough pressure to get us below $400... NOT saying it is impossible.. but I am somewhat with Chestnut and KFR and Seleme.. and maybe a few other "brainwashed" bulls.. he he he.. in thinking that it is quite unlikely.. even though possible..... but seems like we could get some upward departure at any moment... .. I even have a hard time seeing us get below $430.. b/c it just does NOT seem to wanna go back down there in the last couple of days - including that this should have taken place over the weekend, if it were going to take place.

[thefunkybits]

Everyone thinks we're due for a rally now and most people's reasoning includes that there has been a rally every 9 months. "It has happened 4 times, and now it will happen again", right?  

I thought that rallies were coming less than 9 months apart..

Bitcoin rallies in a fractal pattern of bull flags, TERA you of all people know this. If we are to follow the exponential trendline the top of the next "bubble" will be reached in June-August and we should have long passed bottom. Black swan events have been extending this downtrend but honey badger may or may not give a fuck  

[JayJuanGee]

Especially when those people learn that such scams keep occurring, the lost bitcoins dollars are never recovered, and no one gets punished.

Sounds like Wall Street and modern banking. Lotsa folks continuing to invest there.

Well, perhaps you are right about big banks and high finance.  But many smaller fish have been sent to jail for securities fraud and related crimes.

Madoff is in jail, some 25 people related to the Enron and Worldcom scandals were found guilty of criminal charges and some or all went to jail, ....

Perhaps MtGOX can be equated to Lehmann Bros and declared "too big to jail". But people who stole 1/10 as much should not deserve that privilege.  

EDIT: typos

Figuring out who is jailed or NOT is far from over... they may have trouble getting Karpeles to appear in the USA.. and then if he does will he be detained.. Maybe he would be, and for that reason, if he has counsel, they probably would be advising him NOT to show up in the USA.... .. And  Shrem is really being screwed with and the SRoads guy is in jail, no?   They are much more likely to be tough on the bitcoiners, it seems as compared to these cadre of connected wallstreet peeps...... some of the wallstreet peeps go to jail, but there are way too many examples of them NOT going to jail for way larger stealing of various public investor moneys.