Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

I'm ready to turn bull when I see it.

But so far not a sniff. 

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 08

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2782 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 452 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was fair (S = 0.0035, W = 0.782) but totally off the trend followed by the four previous points. Obviously there was a break in the trend.  With a single data point, the best one can do is to use the banal prediction, "tomorrow will be the same as today".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.15, 6.23, 6.20 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-06, 23:00 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Foiled again:

Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2782 CNY
Error: 147 CNY (~24 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 452 USD
Error: 20 USD
 
NOTE: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." --P. K. Dick

[MinermanNC]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

the China issue is done. I seriously doubt poeple in china only now heard that china banned bitcoin.

and guess what, chinese poeple like HODLING too....

That's exactly right, they aren't just going to give up their BTC that easy,,,, lol as u say, they like hodling too! I'm sure they hope that the PBOC will come back with some exceptions or guidance just like we have here in the states, and we finally are! No mention of banning here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MinermanNC]

Ya know what's ironic, is a majority of all the asic mining gear/chips etc in use today comes from the china foundry's. I'm sure they have no problems with that side of it all..... and one would think that the Chinese gov would want to be a leader in this new technology and get out ahead of the usa in its development. I really think in time we will see a shift in their stance towards BTC when they really understand it and the potential it has, much that has yet to be developed. So hang on tight,,,, I for one really don't think its and open and shut case yet by a long shot over there

[2017orso]

People who have wrapped their head around the reality that bitcoin isn't 'going anywhere' understand political positions are just that, maneuvering.  It is not an open and shut case anywhere, and prohibition simply doesn't work, especially in the midst of a global currency war and on the cusp of fiat-derived market meltdown.  

[podyx]

People who have wrapped their head around the reality that bitcoin isn't 'going anywhere' understand political positions are just that, maneuvering.  It is not an open and shut case anywhere, and prohibition simply doesn't work, especially in the midst of a global currency war and on the cusp of fiat-derived market meltdown.  

bitcoin can go around it or simply go through it, it isn't here to fit in

it is here to get right in

[PoolMinor]

Yes...........









NO.....
Edit:
37 day cycle still in effect, more importantly 37 week cycle pointed out previously by someone else showing the last 4 cycles.
~April 19th is my next target.

-PoolMinor

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jonoiv]

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.  

[podyx]

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.  

huobi trying to come thru it

so close..

[shmadz]

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.  

huobi trying to come thru it

so close..

this chart reminds me of that long, sorry time, during 2012 when I was selling bitcoin for 5 bucks.

I'm not selling this time.

[billyjoeallen]

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.  

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

[solex]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

[billyjoeallen]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

This is my understanding as well. The banks may not partake in anything bitcoin. Payment processors are banned from doing business with any bitcoin exchange.

-but- I do not see any problems with banks wiring yuan to companies operating exchanges, yet.

My suspicion is that all the Chinese gov't really wants is to be able to watch and control the flow of their money, through the banks, and they're still loading up on gold as well.

My feeling is that they really don't understand what bitcoin means just yet, they are still focused on the currency wars going on in the "real world".

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

If bank deposits stop, it will drive it completely underground. I think they prefer to keep a watchful eye.

[billyjoeallen]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

This is my understanding as well. The banks may not partake in anything bitcoin. Payment processors are banned from doing business with any bitcoin exchange.

-but- I do not see any problems with banks wiring yuan to companies operating exchanges, yet.

My suspicion is that all the Chinese gov't really wants is to be able to watch and control the flow of their money, through the banks, and they're still loading up on gold as well.

My feeling is that they really don't understand what bitcoin means just yet, they are still focused on the currency wars going on in the "real world".

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

If bank deposits stop, it will drive it completely underground. I think they prefer to keep a watchful eye.

If they don't really understand Bitcoin, then they don't know that banning bank deposits will drive it underground. You can't have it both ways. We do know that they banned another payment system that uses QR codes. Small exchanges are shutting down specifically citing this regulation. My point is only that there is uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. The PBoC had weeks now to clarify and chose not to, even though price has fallen significantly.

[aminorex]

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

Gradual exhaustion of a short term reversal. I'm selling my trading margin.  Start buying again at 429.
Or i chase it uphill if I am wrong.  Hopefully by BTFDing.

[billyjoeallen]

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

Gradual exhaustion of a short term reversal. I'm selling my trading margin.  Start buying again at 429.
Or i chase it uphill if I am wrong.  Hopefully by BTFDing.

Yeah I just got the last of my trading margin out @ $455, fully aware that could be the worst possible moment to go full fiat.