Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

Gradual exhaustion of a short term reversal. I'm selling my trading margin.  Start buying again at 429.
Or i chase it uphill if I am wrong.  Hopefully by BTFDing.

Yeah I just got the last of my trading margin out @ $455, fully aware that could be the worst possible moment to go full fiat.

Don't do this at home, kids.

Bitcoin is helluva drug.

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[shmadz]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

This is my understanding as well. The banks may not partake in anything bitcoin. Payment processors are banned from doing business with any bitcoin exchange.

-but- I do not see any problems with banks wiring yuan to companies operating exchanges, yet.

My suspicion is that all the Chinese gov't really wants is to be able to watch and control the flow of their money, through the banks, and they're still loading up on gold as well.

My feeling is that they really don't understand what bitcoin means just yet, they are still focused on the currency wars going on in the "real world".

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

If bank deposits stop, it will drive it completely underground. I think they prefer to keep a watchful eye.

If they don't really understand Bitcoin, then they don't know that banning bank deposits will drive it underground. You can't have it both ways. We do know that they banned another payment system that uses QR codes. Small exchanges are shutting down specifically citing this regulation. My point is only that there is uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. The PBoC had weeks now to clarify and chose not to, even though price has fallen significantly.

ok, granted, they might try to completely outlaw bitcoin. I hope they do. Every attack against bitcoin will further prove its resilience.

honey badger don't care.

[billyjoeallen]

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

This is my understanding as well. The banks may not partake in anything bitcoin. Payment processors are banned from doing business with any bitcoin exchange.

-but- I do not see any problems with banks wiring yuan to companies operating exchanges, yet.

My suspicion is that all the Chinese gov't really wants is to be able to watch and control the flow of their money, through the banks, and they're still loading up on gold as well.

My feeling is that they really don't understand what bitcoin means just yet, they are still focused on the currency wars going on in the "real world".

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

If bank deposits stop, it will drive it completely underground. I think they prefer to keep a watchful eye.

If they don't really understand Bitcoin, then they don't know that banning bank deposits will drive it underground. You can't have it both ways. We do know that they banned another payment system that uses QR codes. Small exchanges are shutting down specifically citing this regulation. My point is only that there is uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. The PBoC had weeks now to clarify and chose not to, even though price has fallen significantly.

ok, granted, they might try to completely outlaw bitcoin. I hope they do. Every attack against bitcoin will further prove its resilience.

honey badger don't care.

I agree. I'm a long term bull. I'm only shorting now to hedge my main stash and to increase my holdings.

[billyjoeallen]

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

Gradual exhaustion of a short term reversal. I'm selling my trading margin.  Start buying again at 429.
Or i chase it uphill if I am wrong.  Hopefully by BTFDing.

Yeah I just got the last of my trading margin out @ $455, fully aware that could be the worst possible moment to go full fiat.

Don't do this at home, kids.

Bitcoin is helluva drug.

Got that right.

[JayJuanGee]

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.  

We seem to be just stuck in this $450-ish limbo land  (NOT even $444, anymore)... and maybe this kind of boringness CANNOT be rushed with such seeming low volume... who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.   

Seems like both Bears and Bulls are getting a little bit anxious about this BTC price point.  Personally, I keep thinking let's go down to $430 or $425 or even $420 and get it over with.. and maybe thereafter, at some point soon we can progress back up to higher resting grounds....

I'm NOT giving up on $750 to $850 being a more reasonable price range for a few months before the next bubble... maybe as late as August or September?

I seem to be so easily convinced about various bubble scenarios..  maybe it is pie in the sky thinking from me?

 Initially, I was thinking $1,500 as the next bubble, but for some reason that amount is beginning to seem too conservative, and somewhere between $2500 and $3500 or the next bubble may be more reasonable b/c it seems that once prices break the previous ATH, then there is going to be a magnitude of increase beyond the previous ATH - merely b/c bitcoin remains very much in its early stages of expansion and adoption.

At the moment, though, there seems to be some pent up pressures to push these BTC prices down to the $430 or $425 or even $420, but the last several days, the price barely will breach $440.... which may mean that we may be floating here in this $440 to $460 range for a whole week, or at least until 4/15 comes and goes?

[Davyd05]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

by this logic alone you shouldn't have even thought of going long, the Chinese news hasn't really changed since Dec 5th, which carried a rumor ban of Jan 31st etc etc

none the less the sheep sit on a fence where they go its banned its not banned, while I sit here and wonder how many Chinese wealthy bought on huge dips

[shmadz]

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.  

I know this one guy....

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

[billyjoeallen]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

by this logic alone you shouldn't have even thought of going long, the Chinese news hasn't really changed since Dec 5th, which carried a rumor ban of Jan 31st etc etc

none the less the sheep sit on a fence where they go its banned its not banned, while I sit here and wonder how many Chinese wealthy bought on huge dips

Yeah, I was a dumb-ass. I may still be a dumb-ass. The market gets the final word. My thinking at the time was that there was a rumor that had been refuted by the PBoC a week earlier, and this one would be too. I thought the story was a Dorian (unconfirmed rumor by one irresponsible reporter), but it turns out it was more likely a goxxing (no news is horrible news).

It seems we are developing our own vocabulary.

[billyjoeallen]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

[Dabs]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

I think I'm a permabull. Going to double my coins again soon.

[billyjoeallen]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

I think I'm a permabull. Going to double my coins again soon.

You could do that by selling them now and buying them back at half price. (I'm exaggerating. maybe.)

[shmadz]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

mmm, not quite feeling the pain yet, maybe that is a sign we should go lower.

There is a thread ...

here it is, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=551627.0

the point of maximum pain just does not seem to be here yet...

for me, there is no pain, I invested nothing, other than time and attention (ok, yeah, that is something) but this is just an experiment, you all must remember this!

don't get too carried away when we dip, don't risk more than you can afford to lose.

[JayJuanGee]

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.  

I know this one guy....

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period.  So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

[chessnut]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

One part of me feels like everything is going to plan, another part of me wants to give up entirely. It feels dead. but thats all part of the plan.

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels. 

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet.  Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

[chessnut]

Although it's not all about sentiment. the fundamentals will take bitcoin higher in the next months sentiment or no. I think the theories for a one year consolidation dont cater for the exponential fundamentals. maybe what we need is just more disaster.

[shmadz]

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.  

I know this one guy....

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period.  So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

I think that 450 is a nice price point and I have bought there on the last 2 dips; this one, I am sitting out.

the point I'd really like to address is the part I bolded: I don't think there are many savvy traders that have remained "in for the long term" when we've lost 50% in what? 2-3 months?

I get the feeling that the next bump will be big, and I think many of those that sold at $1000+ were people that bought much lower, and they remember the ride, and would like to do it again.

just don't forget to take profits when the price goes in your favour.

:edit: "taking profit" is a term I used for NFL betting, that's where I learned to trade. and when you're up, you better take some profits off the table, or you will lose it all. (you can consider "profit" as either extra fiat for hookers and blow, or skimming extra bitcoin and saving it for a rainy day

[billyjoeallen]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels. 

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet.  Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

I meant permabull active traders with open orders. Guys like me staring staring at the graphs, wanting the arrow to move up like the way some rabid sports fans think that their team still has a prayer when the coach has already substituted third string players and the other fans are starting to leave.

[shmadz]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels.  

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet.  Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

I meant permabull active traders with open orders. Guys like me staring staring at the graphs, wanting the arrow to move up like the way some rabid sports fans think that their team still has a prayer when the coach has already substituted third string players and the other fans are starting to leave.

never leave before it's over.  (*and never go full fiat*)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDbEX666G3Y

go oilers!

[TeeBone]

This feels totally diffferent then the last 2 drops to 400. Almost everyone saw those flash crashes coming and that it would quickly rebound within hrs, which it did.

Here we are in the low/mid 400's for over a week and there is no mad rush to buy coins at this insanely 'discounted' price.

Permabulls are hoping for a hail-mary pass, but i just dont see it, i dont think we've grinded this far down for not at least a vicious 400 retest.

Sharks are waiting in the wings patiently. 400 is key, if that breaks watch the fuck out, it could drop like a rock to the 200's. This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.