Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

You don't really have proof of how many people are 'hodling' and how many are dedicated to holding and aren't just waiting for their chance to get out.

they have had their chance.... they have had 3 months.

[chessnut]

No way.  600 is blocked by about 5 different resistances in the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts, and is also blocked by that diagonal line at 540. I don't know what makes you think there would suddenly be a surge to 600 from 455 based on a low volume breakout on daily charts. The breakout from 570 to 700 was backed by a reversal day with 120,000BTC of volume.

nobody expected the last one either..... and sorry, your TA is only a small edge, that I dont agree with. the market can very easily move $150 in a day. This is reversal territory, and the fundamentals are pushing up. bears can only pray that Huobi shuts down and quick.

[billyjoeallen]

Also, a price supported by entirely by holding and not by buyers is very weak - it is unusable by merchants due to the lack of liquidity. It is in effect a ponzi scheme.

You should be ashamed of yourself for being involved.  What would your mother think?  Go away.

I have a history of trading ponzi schemes actually, and then getting out just in time before they collapse. It all started when I was 18 years old and I partipated in a ponzi called "12 daily pro", turning $5,000 into $15,000 in a few weeks. Of course the members insisted that it was not a ponzi at the time. It was.. "the future of advertising and multi level marketing" bla bla.

LOL. You're the Green Lumber Trader.  http://nassimtaleb.org/2012/08/nassim-talebs-green-lumber-problem/#.U0SxlVdWhEM

[jonoiv]

Happy Anniversary to April 2013's, Bag Holders.

Got you a nice cake and some commemorative red candles.

[keewee]

Happy Anniversary to April 2013's, Bag Holders.

Got you a nice cake and some commemorative red candles.


http://s21.postimg.org/qqr3u37kn/bag.png

And they're sitting on a 71% gain for the year. Not too shabby

[jonoiv]

First bite at the BTC-e sell wall  


EDIT: now it's gone

[jonoiv]

Happy Anniversary to April 2013's, Bag Holders.

Got you a nice cake and some commemorative red candles.


http://s21.postimg.org/qqr3u37kn/bag.png

And they're sitting on a 71% gain for the year. Not too shabby

Interesting if it will still be a gain by 13th April

[JayJuanGee]

the low volume highly volatility range trading may now begin.

What's new about that?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Also note there are no 1,500BTC bid walls accumulating coins this time.

no one is interested in the 500BTC wall on btc-e tho.

volume is low because we accumulated so many god damn hodlers invested for the future.

don't expect them to all panic sell at once because china banned bitcoin 5 times in april.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w&feature=share&list=PL3C264C70646796C4&index=4

December 2013  - oh shit!!!!! china bans bitcoin

January 2014  - you know what ?  bitcoin is going to banned in china at the end of January

February 2014  - NEWS FLASH -  china bans bitcoin

March 2014  - guess what china is banning?

April 2014  - fill in the blank---- China is going to ban [______]  come on, you can do it.  guess.

[chessnut]

despite all the news following the first hit, we have spent more time above the low of the first wave. The first wave is where the volume is at, that's where I believe capitulation took place.

[TERA]

despite all the news following the first hit, we have spent more time above the low of the first wave. The first wave is where the volume is at, that's where I believe capitulation took place.

You believe that capitulation took place with 40k of volume?? lol

[chessnut]

You believe that capitulation took place with 40k of volume?? lol

the volume over the two days of that wave adds up to more than 300k..... dont forget that capitulation doesn't happen just once. when the news that mattered came out, we went down to 2200 yuan.

[JayJuanGee]

Also, a price supported by entirely by holding and not by buyers is very weak - it is unusable by merchants due to the lack of liquidity. It is in effect a ponzi scheme.

You should be ashamed of yourself for being involved.  What would your mother think?  Go away.

I have a history of trading ponzi schemes actually, and then getting out just in time before they collapse. It all started when I was 18 years old and I partipated in a ponzi called "12 daily pro", turning $5,000 into $15,000 in a few weeks. Of course the members insisted that it was not a ponzi at the time. It was.. "the future of advertising and multi level marketing" bla bla.

YOUR bare assertion that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme will NOT win the day.  And, the mere fact that you may have some experience with Ponzi schemes does NOT mean that you have correctly identified bitcoin properly as a supposed Ponzi scheme. 

With any kind of investment, there is a certain level of reliance on future investors to keep up the price point.. but bitcoin has a lot of tangibles..

A ponzi scheme is different b/c it offers nothing in return and is a scam.. You really should KNOW better than making those kinds of vacuous accusations towards bitcoin without any real solid argument...

By employing the term "Ponzi" you are engaging in a disinformation campaign.. b/c it seems that you know better.

[jonoiv]

despite all the news following the first hit, we have spent more time above the low of the first wave. The first wave is where the volume is at, that's where I believe capitulation took place.

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day.   The scales are tipped only one way imho.

[Richy_T]

My Chinese slumber method for predicting Chinese slumber proves that the Chinese sleep when they are not awake and are awake when they are not sleeping.

Excellent!  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Song_of_la_Palice

Loses something in the translation. It might be fun to read one rewritten to be sung in English. Though it seems to me there might be something like that already?

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 09

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was rather weak (S = 0.0055, W = 0.545) but, with the previous one, allows us to assume a straight line trend A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2782, B = 13.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.15, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 01:55 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)

Another easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2782 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2795 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 452 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 454 USD
Error: 2 USD
 
NOTE: "A man with a new idea is a crank until he succeeds." --Mark Twain

[JayJuanGee]

No one is buying and no one is selling.

while the price is dropping on average of $7-8 per day.   The scales are tipped only one way imho.

Dropping $7-8 per day since when? 

Are selectively picking a start date for this hypothetical and arbitrarily picked price drop?

[TERA]

Im not calling bitcoin itself a ponzi, but this mentality where you have to convince other speculators to "hold" resembles that of a ponzi. if its really that strong fundamentally, then there should be an elastic support so that sellers cannot drop the price that much until eventually all coins are bought by new buyers. you shouldn't be fearing that if 1% of an asset is sold, it will collapse. let's say you're trading GOOG - you don't give a crap about what other traders are doing and you know it doesn't matter.

[octaft]

YOUR bare assertion that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme will NOT win the day.  And, the mere fact that you may have some experience with Ponzi schemes does NOT mean that you have correctly identified bitcoin properly as a supposed Ponzi scheme. 

With any kind of investment, there is a certain level of reliance on future investors to keep up the price point.. but bitcoin has a lot of tangibles..

A ponzi scheme is different b/c it offers nothing in return and is a scam.. You really should KNOW better than making those kinds of vacuous accusations towards bitcoin without any real solid argument...

By employing the term "Ponzi" you are engaging in a disinformation campaign.. b/c it seems that you know better.

He didn't say bitcoin was a ponzi. He said if all that supports the price is people hoarding them, then in that moment it is functioning sort of as if it were a ponzi.