Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.

Observing a correlation between stock and flow requires no assumption.  The coarse-grained observation that the rich tend to get richer and the poor tend to get poorer, ceteris paribus, is an informative prior.  There is also the analogical observation that big fish eat little fish.  In general the skill of gaining wealth correlates with both wealth and rate of gain.  The domain is sufficiently complex that making a necessary argument is challenging, and statistical ones must serve.

[magicmexican]

b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.

I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?

Nah, its much better to watch the price rise while being butthurt and mumble "stupid delusional people, buying in, even if it goes to 1000 they will still be stupid, dammit"

[octaft]

Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.

care to point this somewhere so it can be addressed.. or you just want to throw your 2 cents in?

If I don't direct it at anybody, nobody feels required to respond or put on the defensive, which is good because that means I get significantly less whining from responses.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.

I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?

No thanks. I know that this bulltrap could go further and I could lose the opportunity to win some money, but this risk of loss just isn't worth of the possible gain here. I don't make my moves often, but when I do, then I won't leave it depending on blind luck. There is no way of knowing when this rise will start to fall and making blind bets isn't my thing. You go ahead and enjoy your coins.

[JayJuanGee]

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.

Seems like the democrats are going to want to prop up the economic system, at least until after the November 2014 elections, no?

[podyx]

@bears
https://i.imgur.com/UGw1mKB.gif

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390.  I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter,  the BTC prices would be heading upwards. 

However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices.  It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little.  It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?

[aminorex]

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.

Seems like the democrats are going to want to prop up the economic system, at least until after the November 2014 elections, no?

Can kicking only works until you run out of road, no matter how good you are at it.  I expect a patch of cow trail coming up.  My reasons are idiosyncratic, and most will not share them.  They are also complex and ill-suited to a forum post.  I apologize for providing such low-information content.  The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.

[magicmexican]

I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390.  I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter,  the BTC prices would be heading upwards. 

However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices.  It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little.  It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?

Its possible, its also possible it will take a decent amount of time to revisit it again, you never know.

Even if its a "bull trap", i dont think we've seen the top yet

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

To Aminorex:

I'm supposed to have you on ignore, but you're posts are in the top 1%.

Question:  Why do you hang out with the prols?

[magicmexican]

I feel that fat green dildo up to 3000~ can materialize there soon

[ErisDiscordia]

Anything worth doing is worth doing well.  Some things are not worth doing.  

There are many kinds of trades.  A free exchange based on mutual information is almost always pure win.  The more of these that occur, the more efficient and productive the economy.  Some trades are based on taking advantage of differential information, and are a positive boon systemically, although they are not win-win.  They are win-lose.  An evolutionary process weeds out the losers, but they are constantly churning, so this process will never completely end, and is unavoidable.  It is bound up with the necessary process of price discovery.  No problem there.  Performing deceptive tortious or outright criminal acts to induce losers in order to gain thereby is just evil, seeking to harm others in order to benefit thereby.  It is morally indiscernible from any other larceny or fraud, and harms the efficiency of the market, and harms the productivity of the economy.  It is a defection and a despoilment of the commons.  I would that some batman go from house to house giving neckties to sociopaths like these.  Not my job, however, and thankfully.  On this forum I rub shoulders with these parasites.

Good, thought-provoking perspective!  

Thanks for that.

[billyjoeallen]

Who here has money in case there is a weekend dip or a retest of $340?? BTC may go to the moon from here and if so, awesome. I'll cash out my trading stash and reload from cold storage. But what if there's another dump? You have to be flexible in case the unexpected happens.

If you want to make money day trading and help the Bitcoin economy at the same time, you don't buy at the top of a 20% rally.  Missing the train isn't any more of a risk at this point than missing the next dump.  I usually consider Friday to be "idiot with a paycheck day" and do the opposite of what everybody else is doing. I'm looking for an opportunity to partially buy back in and this certainly isn't it.

A push back from $340 is a very good long term sign, but that doesn't mean there isn't $4K coins in sell orders to get us back to where we were two days ago.

[JorgeStolfi]

C'mon Jorge FUD means fear, uncertainty and doubt. Where have you ever seen it refered to as such in a market situation...

Where? Why, here on this thread o course!   

I know well what it means in general (e.g. in the context of free software, a decade ago).  But here sometimes it seems that any negative fact or opinion is promptly dismissed as "FUD trolling, ignore" 

[magicmexican]

pro LTC trading from the trollbox, thats how you do it :

[dreamspark]

I've been buying all along, and my latest buying point was around $390.  I did NOT go all in at that point b/c I was anticipating that we would get another price drop on saturday or at least sometime between then and early sunday.. then, thereafter,  the BTC prices would be heading upwards. 

However, if we are heading upwards today, or this is a prolonged upward bull trap, then the saturday price drop may only bring us back to today's prices.  It is so difficult to predict exactly if NOW is a good time to buy, or to wait a little.  It is possible that we will NOT see below $400 anymore?

Ask yourself, is the China FUD over? Has anything changed from yesterday in regards to what we know? Is it likely that at some point either before or on the 18th there will be some news that sends us straight back into sub $400 territory even if only briefly. Discard the PBoC statement regarding them not banning bitcoin, everyone knew that anyway and certainly the people with the coin or cash to move the market definitely knew that.

[minerpumpkin]

Someone's desperately trying to keep the price below 430. Successfully, it seems...

[hodl_2015]

[...]

There are several factors why people do not daytrade :

1) They feel safer to have their coins in the coldstorage and not on the exchange - nothing wrong with that
2) They understand that trading is a serious deal, that you cant just jump in right into it and make money - nothing wrong with that
3) They have other job and its more profitable/comfortable for them to just focus on their job and buy more coins when the price is right - nothing wrong with that

4) Profit from investing is taxed differently from profit from day trading in some countries. (0% and and >40% in my case)
    (I also pay an additional 1.2%/year property tax over my bitcoins, but that's peanuts)
5) some people trade through websites that provide instant exchange between national back accounts and BTC, but have a relatively high fee of 3 to 5%, both ways, making day trading too expensive.

HODL'ing (and buying 1 BTC or less, if the price drops more than $30 below my last buy).

[dreamspark]

Who here has money in case there is a weekend dip or a retest of $340?? BTC may go to the moon from here and if so, awesome. I'll cash out my trading stash and reload from cold storage. But what if there's another dump? You have to be flexible in case the unexpected happens.

If you want to make money day trading and help the Bitcoin economy at the same time, you don't buy at the top of a 20% rally.  Missing the train isn't any more of a risk at this point than missing the next dump.  I usually consider Friday to be "idiot with a paycheck day" and do the opposite of what everybody else is doing. I'm looking for an opportunity to partially buy back in and this certainly isn't it.

A push back from $340 is a very good long term sign, but that doesn't mean there isn't $4K coins in sell orders to get us back to where we were two days ago.

Precisely, I actually agree with you for the first time in a week or so  

I've adjusted my position accordingly and can see it go up another couple hundred dollars till I have to buy back evens on the coins I sold. Thanks go to MagicMexican for convincing me to hold off on my sell order for another $30/BTC extra this morning