Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jonoiv]

I don't think it will be too long until 300 is being tested .  

Head and shoulders on all 3 exchanges is almost complete.

[Davyd05]

I don't think it will be too long until 300 is being tested .  

Head and shoulders on all 3 exchanges is almost complete.

just to take the opposing view, If China remains as it is I believe we'll slow grind, no point in revisiting 300 unless someone whom wants to manipulate tries, and even then he or she may end up getting absorbed.

[roslinpl]

It seems like I was right with that the weekend will be better than friday :-)
Price went up as I predicted 13h ago :-) good.

[magicmexican]

What's a dinosaur?

It has been determined by the most critical users in this thread that a Technical Analysis chart is not convincing if the lines do not trace the outline of a dinosaur.

The pioneering work that led to that conclusion was posted here a couple of months ago IIRC, perhaps by user @magicmexican.  Others have tried to follow that lead, but with not as much success.

EDIT: Oops, the inventor of Dinosaur Analysis was @spooderman it seems.

It was my glorious achievement, dont take it away from me

[JorgeStolfi]

And lack of depth charts

The API used by chart sites to extract the data from the exchanges requires that the entire detailed order book be returned every few seconds or so to every API client.

That API was designed by chart sites assuming that order books would contain only a couple thousand entries at most.  But robots and lack of trading fees generate LOTS of small orders on the Chinese exchange books.  Understandably, the largest exchanges truncate the book after a few thousand entries, which may cover only a narrow range of prices around the spread.

Chart sites should indicate the truncation with "..." or something.  Since they don't, their unwary clients keep assuming that what they see on the chart is the entire order book.

The chart-reporting API should be redesigned to return the order book SUMMARY in log scale (namely, total orders up to to 5, 10, 50, 100, ... USD above and below the spread; or, conversely, what the final price would be if one sold/bought 5, 10 50, 100, ... BTC or USD in one go.  But even that may be too expensive for the Chinese sites to compute and deliver in real time.

[JorgeStolfi]

ccess.

EDIT: Oops, the inventor of Dinosaur Analysis was @spooderman it seems.

It was my glorious achievement, dont take it away from me

OOPS, sorry! Re-editing my post now,

[magicmexican]

Looks like its going down, 2h macD usually does not fuck around and its rarely a trap, so i expect huobi going to 2550 minimum, maybe 2450-2500 even

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Carra23]

A brief history of dinosaur patterns:



that was a PAIN to do. funny to go back though and read posts from people saying "well I think we definately can't go below 700" etc.

Thats a cute dino.

Once I become a billionaire I will adopt one as a pet.

[spooderman]

I can confirm that it was NOT me. Magicmexican gets the credit.

I merely went back and found his post from December.

And yes TERA, everyone WAS saying "the cycles are faster now, this bear market will be over faster than all the previous ones."

If we hit the 300s again I am BUYING.

[magicmexican]

saw a prediction to 400$ in 2.5 hours~, lets see if it holds

[Davyd05]

saw a prediction to 400$ in 2.5 hours~, lets see if it holds

China is going to bed so I expect a lull, but 400 hmmm I would hope stamp could up the volume but I don't think anyone is in a rush to buy.

[niothor]

And lack of depth charts

The API used by chart sites to extract the data from the exchanges requires that the entire detailed order book be returned every few seconds or so to every API client.

That API was designed by chart sites assuming that order books would contain only a couple thousand entries at most.  But robots and lack of trading fees generate LOTS of small orders on the Chinese exchange books.  Understandably, the largest exchanges truncate the book after a few thousand entries, which may cover only a narrow range of prices around the spread.

Chart sites should indicate the truncation with "..." or something.  Since they don't, their unwary clients keep assuming that what they see on the chart is the entire order book.

The chart-reporting API should be redesigned to return the order book SUMMARY in log scale (namely, total orders up to to 5, 10, 50, 100, ... USD above and below the spread; or, conversely, what the final price would be if one sold/bought 5, 10 50, 100, ... BTC or USD in one go.  But even that may be too expensive for the Chinese sites to compute and deliver in real time.

we're not talking about the data from the api , we're talking about the data on their websites
And gox was showing that even with their huge orderbook , i can't understand why huobi and okcoin are hiding this except .... fake data?

[Davyd05]

And lack of depth charts

The API used by chart sites to extract the data from the exchanges requires that the entire detailed order book be returned every few seconds or so to every API client.

That API was designed by chart sites assuming that order books would contain only a couple thousand entries at most.  But robots and lack of trading fees generate LOTS of small orders on the Chinese exchange books.  Understandably, the largest exchanges truncate the book after a few thousand entries, which may cover only a narrow range of prices around the spread.

Chart sites should indicate the truncation with "..." or something.  Since they don't, their unwary clients keep assuming that what they see on the chart is the entire order book.

The chart-reporting API should be redesigned to return the order book SUMMARY in log scale (namely, total orders up to to 5, 10, 50, 100, ... USD above and below the spread; or, conversely, what the final price would be if one sold/bought 5, 10 50, 100, ... BTC or USD in one go.  But even that may be too expensive for the Chinese sites to compute and deliver in real time.

we're not talking about the data from the api , we're talking about the data on their websites
And gox was showing that even with their huge orderbook , i can't understand why huobi and okcoin are hiding this except .... fake data?

the best part if the Data is faked and they hold less coins or equal amounts to those outside of China then we shouldn't expect an over whelming rush of coins leaving their market for ours.  

some selling volume building*

[niothor]

And lack of depth charts

The API used by chart sites to extract the data from the exchanges requires that the entire detailed order book be returned every few seconds or so to every API client.

That API was designed by chart sites assuming that order books would contain only a couple thousand entries at most.  But robots and lack of trading fees generate LOTS of small orders on the Chinese exchange books.  Understandably, the largest exchanges truncate the book after a few thousand entries, which may cover only a narrow range of prices around the spread.

Chart sites should indicate the truncation with "..." or something.  Since they don't, their unwary clients keep assuming that what they see on the chart is the entire order book.

The chart-reporting API should be redesigned to return the order book SUMMARY in log scale (namely, total orders up to to 5, 10, 50, 100, ... USD above and below the spread; or, conversely, what the final price would be if one sold/bought 5, 10 50, 100, ... BTC or USD in one go.  But even that may be too expensive for the Chinese sites to compute and deliver in real time.

we're not talking about the data from the api , we're talking about the data on their websites
And gox was showing that even with their huge orderbook , i can't understand why huobi and okcoin are hiding this except .... fake data?

the best part if the Data is faked and they hold less coins or equal amounts to those outside of China then we shouldn't expect an over whleming rush of coins leaving their market for ours. 

I am guessing that chinese exchangers hold between 1/10 and 1/5 of the coins that are on bitstamp and btc-e.

There is no way they could have acquired the amount they claim out of the blue.

Time will tell , but I doubt the numbers are that wrong.

[Davyd05]

I am guessing that chinese exchangers hold between 1/10 and 1/5 of the coins that are on bitstamp and btc-e.

There is no way they could have acquired the amount they claim out of the blue.

Time will tell , but I doubt the numbers are that wrong.

I am theorizing they have a lot of miners and or people who buy off of miners to flip on the markets

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. By the way, it is not just the Chinese exchanges that truncate the reported order books.  One could clearly see the truncation in some of the @Chartbuddy plots of MtGOX, when that exchange was alive.

The API specified by bitcoincharts is described here.  Presumably the other chart sites depend on this same API. 

I cannot see how the exchange could report their total bid/as sum through that API except by reporting the entire detailed order book.  In fact I see no reliable way to tell whether the book was truncated or not.  If the book is truncated, the bid/ask sums computed from it are wrong and mostly meaningless.

[knightcoin]

A brief history of dinosaur patterns:



that was a PAIN to do. funny to go back though and read posts from people saying "well I think we definately can't go below 700" etc.

Thats a cute dino.

Once I become a billionaire I will adopt one as a pet.

Cool pet
Talking about prehistoric monsters and old information machines producer  ( Edison Universal Stock Tickers -> http://www.stocktickercompany.com/stc/flash/homepageBanner.swf - Wall Street Memorabilia, ) , I wonder (daydreaming) how would be a "ticker" if Tesla had devoted some time to think about it ....ehhh, since Tesla just had improved every Edison inventions...  it would be kind of "bit-multiverse-ticker"  

[seleme]

Shit, my shitty bot bought at 430 last night.

[razibuzouzou]

PS. By the way, it is not just the Chinese exchanges that truncate the reported order books.  One could clearly see the truncation in some of the @Chartbuddy plots of MtGOX, when that exchange was alive.

The API specified by bitcoincharts is described here.  Presumably the other chart sites depend on this same API. 

I cannot see how the exchange could report their total bid/as sum through that API except by reporting the entire detailed order book.  In fact I see no reliable way to tell whether the book was truncated or not.  If the book is truncated, the bid/ask sums computed from it are wrong and mostly meaningless.

Indeed, some exchanges truncate their order book (BTC-E for example).
But the bid/ask sums may not be that meaningless, their scope is just limited to the provided range of orders.
Eventually, accuracy of this metric depends on the distribution of orders in the book.