Your quotes are fucked up.. but I fixed them within my post.... and largely it was because you seemed to have had copied and pasted an extra
I was practically tired and exhausted after closing from 9/5 job. Please pardon me and thank you for corrections. Hopefully and gradually, I will grasp the nitty gritty of the forum because I am not there yet at the moment.
Actually, the market have a way of putting one into confusion especially with this extended consolidation. Nevertheless, I have always maintained that we are not going to go south down to $24k region; this is my general bias and expectations.
$24k seems like a pretty high price point to be proclaiming that the BTC price will "never" go below.
Well, I was actually referring to the current market cycle. Market move in cycles (R. Elliot captured it in his wave theory). So, I expect that before we see any drop in price to the $24k region,we should see some uptrend to the $37k region and if this move tarries till the time of Bitcoin halving of 2024, it might even lead to a new ATH. Well, these are projectionss and expectations... only time will clarify
I prefer to attempt to think of these matters in a kind of graduated way, yet we should attempt to lock in the timeframe too. If we are talking about never or if we might be talking about this cycle so maybe in the next 3-6 months? Or maybe we could pick "prior to the halvening" or some other timeframe that we might want to consider as a possible relevant talking point.
So then once we pick the time, and let me just presume that you meant prior to the halvening (rather than ever), so if we might say that going below the 200-week moving average might be 50/50 chances, or maybe even greater than 50/50 chances. We are not very far away from the 200-week moving average (currently at $27,218), even though it continues to move up at nearly $16 per day... so then $24k is really not very far from the 200 week moving average either, but maybe the odds might get as low as 20% to 30%, but surely not as low as zero.. but if we might want to be ballsy about it, maybe we could proclaim going below $24k is less than 10%, yet I will still consider you as an exaggerator (or overly confident) if you are placing those kinds of odds on that price, even if you might really believe it, even if you are not sharing your beliefs with others, and even if you might end up being correct, it still does not seem that you are being realistic when you try to make such strict assignments of probabilities.
I appreciate your open mindedness in this regard. The odds of price getting to the $24k region is definitely not zero and can never be. Our job is limited to predicting possible scenarios and act accordingly. While I understand this flexibility, I never really had the motivation to implement it but as I have come to know that you do implement such flexibility, it becomes a good area of improvement in my Bitcoin journey.
Well I have largely been attempting to set these kinds of ongoing BTC buy orders (even extremes), since the beginning of my bitcoining.. so even when I started to buy in late 2013, I was trying to buy dips, even when I was the earliest days of my DCA'ing practices too.
I did not really sell any BTC without immediately replacing until about August or so of 2015, and at that time, I started a practice in which I created formulas for myself for amounts of BTC that I could sell on the way up .... and so it was ONLY small factions of what my profits would have had been, so if I had 10 BTC and the BTC price went up $10, then my profits would be $100, and so the most that I could sell from those profits would be 50%, but most commonly I would only allow myself to sell less than 25% of the profits amounts (at most)... So as the cash would pile up, then that money would just be set up in order to buy BTC back on dips, and if the BTC price did not dip, then the money would either be spent or just placed into a kind of long-term reserve fund that might still be dedicated to BTC buys without specifically having any exact earmarks as to when it might be used.
In my earliest days of attempting to prepare myself financially and psychologically for either BTC price direction (and especially BTC price dips), I frequently made mistakes that revolved around running out of money to buy BTC way too soon because the BTC price would frequently dip further or for longer than anticipated, so I frequently would get close to running out of money, even if I never really did technically run out of money, but practically the way that I would have to begin to reduce my BTC buy orders, then I would still consider that whatever errors that I had made were still within a kind of category of running out of money.
I feel that in the past 7-8 years, I have gotten quite a bit better at not buying back too much BTC too soon, but I have not completely removed myself from such issue, and even in during the BTC price run up in 2021, I had slowly retracted a lot of the cash that I had reserved for BTC buy backs going down to $9k or so, and by the time we got into about May 2022, my BTC buy orders ONLY went down to the 200-week moving average which was then right below $22k - however, in mid May 2022, when the BTC prices suddenly dropped from upper $30ks to upper $20ks, I had myself a bit of an "oh fuck!" moment. I pretty much had to resize and rearrange several of my buy orders so they would go down to below $20k, and even though I still hoped that the BTC price would not go below $20k, I made those preparations, and when the BTC prices kept dropping, I had to continue to rearrange and ultimately I had to add more value from outside funds in order to create buy orders going down to nearly $10k. and currently the lowest of the remaining ones are sitting around $13k.. but of course, if we ended up experiencing BTC prices in the lower $20ks or even sub $20ks, I may well have to restructure the lowest of my current BTC buy orders....
So, I am bringing up my various experiences between May 2022 and December-ish 2022 in order to describe adjustments that I have had to make that attempt to prepare me for extreme scenarios, even ones that I do not expect to happen and that I don't even want to happen, but I have the money on reserve at those price points in order that I don't have to worry about having capital already allocated to take advantage of extreme scenarios that I still consider to be very low probability events.. that may well even be in a below 5% scenario at present time to go down to $13k in this cycle or even in the next year or so, seems like less than 5% odds.
You have a great deal of experience and thank you for sharing same for us gratis. Going forward, I envisage a lot of improvements in my approach and general disposition towards Bitcoin, and part of the credit will go to you and other senior people here that I have learnt so much from.
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