Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

JayJuanGee
Alright, I am choosing 100 Bitcoin rather than the $10 million. Bitcoin is the Future and I always focused on my future.

Maybe you snapped to your senses, or maybe you just agreed for the mere sake of it?  I am not going to claim to know or want to even attempt to figure such a thing out.

Haha Right, they can create their own most-liked rules.

Thanks for the feedback if You like that i changed it hmm
Well it seem well VitalikPak is good but now its not possible to change that because the form rules says you don't change the name.

I think "BitcoinPak" might have a catchy name, the creativity lies in the diverse viewpoints people bring to discussions. Just as cryptocurrencies have pushed boundaries, diverse opinions enrich conversations. Whether it's Bitcoin and Ethereum, or any other topic the key is engaging in meaningful exchanges that is why I choose Bitcoinpak.

Yes.. you likely realize that I was suggesting that you may well be a shitcoiner and have diluted and dumb-ass fantastical views of rules that might be binding or not binding, just like Vitalik is known for making that kind of an assertion in regards to his shitcoin not necessarily being bound by reality (physics or whatever fantasy-landia shit he was proclaiming).

But someone gives me a natural tag without any reason or any reference. It is very disappointing for me. Because I'm working here more than 2month and very consistent working for discussions and get knowledge and add value in other member life. Is sharing knowledge information in this WO not allowed for jr members? Please mentioned in rules

Many Other lower rank members like @Out of mind @morena233 @Odohu @2Pizza41000btc @wavesuffring @cafter and many others are posting here on Wall for a lot of time not get one neutral but why me because of my name BitcoinPak. I am doing the same thing  share knowledge information and discussion post.
I made a quality post on Wall and high discussion post. I didn't ask anyone to give merit I read all rules in Bignner and help the discussion which clearly says only quality and deserving posts get merit. Otherwise, the forum's meaning is dead. If I am doing any his behaved very Sorry. I am leave that forum very disappointed 🙁
I am doing hard work in this form to grow myself and follow all the rules in the forum. Please help me in this regard. It's humble request Please remove that neutral from my profile.

Well consider that a warning, and ONLY the member can choose whether to remove such tag, or maybe such member might choose to red tag you at some point for some other conduct that s/he believes goes beyond the neutral behavior and has gone into "red tag" territory. And, sure the neutral tag can also serve as a vehicle in which the tagging member is highlighting you (and your account) so that other members should pay more attention to you and your posts.

Sometimes when it appears that members are merely pandering (and you have been placed in that category by one member who may or may be wrong in terms of his/her judgement) and such members do not have anything valuable to say, then they are going to get labelled as merit whores and maybe even receive other kinds of labels.  

It seems to me that one of the better ways to try to get such neutral tag removed is to improve your posting quality... so maybe study and read more than you write, or maybe try to focus on threads that are of interest to you, rather than bouncing around to various threads and not really adding much, if any, value.  Sure, I know that any of us can be guilty of low value posts, but if you are new to the forum, you are more likely to be under greater scrutiny than a member who has already been contributing to the forum for years.

If you beg and whine about getting tagged, then you are likely going to contribute towards the tagger becoming more confident that s/he had tagged you correctly.. and maybe that tag will never be removed from your name.. ..but if your post quality improves, then maybe other members will not tag you with the same thing and then after a year you will NOT end up having 10s of tags rather than actually improving your post quality.  

And by the way, pointing out other shitty posters (who are also likely merit whores) for not receiving tags, is not really helpful to your case.  It even more makes you look like a whiner and complainer.. which may well NOT be motivating for any member to want to remove a neutral tag that s/he had given to your account.

You have to choose for yourself.. the extent to which you might be ready, willing and/or able to improve your post quality and the kinds of contributions that you are making to the forum, if any,...and sure it is possible that some members might be wrong about you and/or formulate wrong impressions about you and/or your account....yet begging them to think about you differently is not very likely to help you to make any kind of good impressions or to make any progress in the direction that you would prefer (which is that presumptively you want members to consider that you are a good contributor to the forum rather than being a merit whore, whiner and/or complainer)...

Oh, by the way, we have quite a few whiners, complainers and members who easily become emotional about things, and they likely are not tagged for the mere fact of being a whiner, complainer and/or emotional.. but hey, I don't claim to be any kind of an expert regarding all the various ways that members tag other members (and there are especially greater latitudes and discretion when using neutral tags).

$35k in 5 days confirmed

That will would be ~ +$1200 /day or +3% to +4% / day

FTFY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

First Mover Asia: What Will It Take to Get Bitcoin to $30K?

30k soon.

Perhaps a tweet from apple that they are going to invest in Bitcoin or a tweet from Elon something about tesla acquiring more bitcoin as its long-term investment portfolio or may be some unexpected scenario. The crypto market is full of excitement and news so anything positive about bitcoin.

Perhaps would-be influencers will continue to use Twitter (or X or whatever you want to call it now) to try to manipulate the Twittards but I don't think the people who really make the market move care much about that crap. They won't base their decisions on some silly "social media" nonsense.

They'll continue to accumulate bitcoins by carefully manipulating the market with exchange trades while doing their real business OTC.

[philipma1957]

$35k in 5 days confirmed

Couldn’t sent 35 to support
Was at 25 max already

 

I gave him the other 25 you are covered.

So $50k confirmed?

yep but by my  birthday Jan 2024 and close to 65-75 by the ½ ing

[JimboToronto]

$35k in 5 days confirmed

Confirmed by math and science?

[DYING_S0UL]

$35k in 5 days confirmed

[JayJuanGee]

I prefer to attempt to think of these matters in a kind of graduated way, yet we should attempt to lock in the timeframe too.  If we are talking about never or if we might be talking about this cycle so maybe in the next 3-6 months?  Or maybe we could pick "prior to the halvening" or some other timeframe that we might want to consider as a possible relevant talking point.  

So then once we pick the time, and let me just presume that you meant prior to the halvening (rather than ever), so if we might say that going below the 200-week moving average might be 50/50 chances, or maybe even greater than 50/50 chances.  We are not very far away from the 200-week moving average (currently at $27,218), even though it continues to move up at nearly $16 per day... so then $24k is really not very far from the 200 week moving average either, but maybe the odds might get as low as 20% to 30%, but surely not as low as zero.. but if we might want to be ballsy about it, maybe we could proclaim going below $24k is less than 10%, yet I will still consider you as an exaggerator (or overly confident) if you are placing those kinds of odds on that price, even if you might really believe it, even if you are not sharing your beliefs with others, and even if you might end up being correct, it still does not seem that you are being realistic when you try to make such strict assignments of probabilities.

I appreciate your open mindedness in this regard. The odds of price getting to the $24k region is definitely not zero and can never be. Our job is limited to predicting possible scenarios and act accordingly. While I understand this flexibility, I never really had the motivation to implement it but as I have come to know that you do implement such flexibility, it becomes a good area of improvement in my Bitcoin journey.

Well, the ideas are not necessarily locked in either, especially since some kind of a sudden action could end up changing how the probabilities are calculated, and perhaps even thinking about another way of framing the topic could contribute towards some tweaking of the probabilities that are assigned in that category and also how much probability would be left to assign to other categories once the probability revisions are made.

So, I had been thinking that I could have framed my assessment of what I consider to be 50/50 probabilities a bit more clearly, and sure I might not even be overly-wedded to my own way of framing matters.

For example, my own proclamation about the "don't wake me up zone" of $25k to $35k is a kind of attempt to assert that the BTC price could break out in either direction within that range, so even though the BTC price has not recently gotten above the $31.8k arena, I still currently consider $35k to be within the "don't wake me up zone," so maybe in that sense I am thinking that if we describe/consider the zone in where we are at fairly broadly, then we likely could suggest that we might consider the odds 50/50 whether the BTC price might break out to the upside or to the downside within that zone, and surely other people might want to frame the zone differently, and I am not going to really blame them for defining the zone differently, but I might proclaim that the way that they had defined the zone may well have had lead them to wrong conclusions in regards to probability assignments.

Even by my own framing of the "don't wake me up" zone so broadly, I am likely already conceding within the frame that I believe that there are pretty chances that the BTC price could float around within the $31.8k to $35k area of the zone, and it is not even going to surprise me, but I am not necessarily wanting to assign any specific probability to it, because my framing is already taking that part of the zone as a kind of included area in regards to where the BTC price has pretty great chances of going.

Now, for me, there may well not be any need to reassess the "don't wake me up" zone, until we get a break out in either direction... then if we break out or maybe something else might happen, then the zone and the ideas behind the "don't wake me up" zone may well have to be reassessed at that time.

[edited out]

You have a great deal of experience and thank you for sharing same for us gratis. Going forward, I envisage a lot of improvements in my approach and general disposition towards Bitcoin, and part of the credit will go to you and other senior people here that I have learnt so much from.

I learn from sharing my experiences and ideas, and sometimes there are needs to tweak those ideas (or maybe even completely reject certain aspects) from time to time, too.  I am glad that you feel that you got some benefits, and surely if you continue to post on the topics then other members will benefit, and yet sometimes, the benefits will travel outside of the forum too when each of us is interacting in the real world, sometimes we are going to have better quality interactions in the real world based on some of our forum interactions.

$35k in 5 days confirmed

We will arrive soon

Hahahaha

What a coincidence!!!!  

t's all within the don't wake me up zone as long as it does not go below $25k or above $35k.

Go figure?

Oh NJ  school voted board voted last night no he's no she's just say all people. Some other nonsense.

"The New Jersey Board of Education narrowly approved in a 6-5 vote last week to approve its equity code, which will include the usage of more gender-neutral terms. The new regulations will require classes to separate sex education classes by gender identity rather than sex.14 hours ago"
source https://www.njspotlightnews.org/video/njs-board-of-education-approves-new-equity-gender-rules/

I am so lucky all my kids died via miscarriages they will never have to face the insane world we live in.

I probably have mentioned it before, but it really seems to irk me when I hear discussions about pregnancy and abortions, and when I hear the term "people" get pregnant/abortions.  Sure, I get the point that women are people but it just seems like such a sloppy way of talking... its almost like using the term crypto when we are talking about bitcoin.

Using gender neutral terms in schools seems quite problematic and sure both men and women are likely irritated by these ideas.. maybe some men and women are o.k. with more open language and speculating that it is better to be more inclusive and accepting.. blah blah blah.  

I suppose if you identify as something other than a man/boy or woman/girl then maybe you are accepting of the gender neutral language, too.. because you are feeling that neither category fits you... ... It's like you are saying (hoping), I don't fit either category, so I think that the whole system of how we communicate categories should change so that I feel moar better.. but is that going to make you feel better?  I suppose it does make you feel better (especially in the short term) and doesn't it seem like everyone else suffers?  Are "we" suffering enough yet?  Is it "suffering"?

Many of us might get into uncomfortable situations based on these kinds of identity politics, even if we might NOT have already gotten into uncomfortable situations.  These ideas make me feel a bit "intolerant," and maybe some of these struggles about nonsense are meant by "TPTB" to contribute towards our feelings of intolerance, so that we are not paying attention to the other ways that the mice are running off with the cheese.

$35k in 5 days confirmed

Couldn’t sent 35 to support
Was at 25 max already
 

Image
I believed, As @nutildah & @El duderino_ said so that then confirmed.

BillyJoeAllen is that you in the pic?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

[philipma1957]

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

we are now at 29.7k so lets do

$33,333.33 and a -1% diff adjustment for tomorrow am.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   802248  (11 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   99.9944%  (1897 / 1897.11 expected, 0.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   53911173001054.59                           
Current Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                           
Next Difficulty:   between 52333596329552 and 52333614807655
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0101% and +0.0101%
Previous Retarget:   July 26, 2023 at 8:39 AM  (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:40 AM  (in 0d 19h 50m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:40 AM  (in 0d 19h 50m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 1m 7s and 14d 0h 1m 7s
Copy stats to clipboard

[Out of mind]

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

Green candle $29836... Wonderful  

BTC$30k We can go soon..!

[FinePoine0]

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

Added the green candle helicopter. Now fly to higher levels and wait till 35k.
 Soon we see the volatility of the sellers which is only the market is now frozen by the buyers.
 The days of bear killing are over now the bull market is waiting.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

https://finbold.com/bitcoin-population-surges-with-record-numbers-of-holders-of-1-btc/
"The number of addresses holding at least one Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new all-time high of 1,013,414"

I think after the next bull run only institutional investors will be able to hold a full Bitcoin. The price will be out of reach for most of the retail investors.

It is already getting quite difficult for newbie normies to hold a whole bitcoin, and there is likely a need for a bit of persistence for many newbie normies to get their investment portfolio to such a place in which they are able to feel comfortable holding a whole bitcoin.

If you have an investment portfolio that has $100k, then surely devoting nearly 1/3 towards bitcoin holding seems a bit much for a newbie normie.. so maybe those who have investment portfolios that are more than $300k might feel comfortable to allocate 10% towards bitcoin, and even since about mid-to-late-2020, I have been proclaiming that anywhere between 1% and 25% allocation into bitcoin is an o.k. amount of an allocation, and even a person who might have an investment portfolio that is around $300k, it could take him/her a bit of time to get their 1% to 25% allocation into bitcoin, and I frequently proclaim that many folks do not like to engage in sales of any of their assets in order to allocate towards something new like bitcoin, so maybe some folks with $300k-ish investment portfolios might have some spare change floating around, but it seems that the more likely path would be to just to start to dedicate extra cashflows into bitcoin, and even if they might be able to purchase a bit more than $2k per month into bitcoin, it still might not get them to 1 bitcoin in a year and a half.. that is if BTC prices stay somewhere in the ballpark where they currently are for the next year or year and a half, which surely does not seem to be too likely.

I think after the next bull run only institutional investors will be able to hold a full Bitcoin. The price will be out of reach for most of the retail investors.

Do you think everyone will sell to institutional investors? I don't agree that it will be like that, because plan B is to not sell BTC even when they offer us some crazy amounts for it.

That does not make any sense.  Why would you hold your BTC merely for the sake of it and pray that your holding it is in your interest because it causes the price to go up...

Sure, I get that in accordance with Gresham's law, it is not problematic to be selling your less valuable forms of cash/assets first (prior to your selling your bitcoin).. but that still ONLY justifies hanging onto your bitcoin until you run out of other kinds of cash/assets to spend because it does not do any good to suffer without food and lodging, or alternatively without hookers, lambos and blow, merely because you are trying to defer gratification for the mere sake of it and in the mean time you overly suffer in the process.

Besides, if you can use BTC to pay for services and goods, the question arises, why sell?

Newsbreak: (or would it be Protip?):.. using bitcoin to buy goods/services has the same effect as if you were selling your BTC... #just so you know some of dee basic idears

$35k in 5 days confirmed

Couldn’t sent 35 to support
Was at 25 max already
 

I gave him the other 25 you are covered.

So $50k confirmed?

yep but by my  birthday Jan 2024 and close to 65-75 by the ½ ing

Doesn't sound overly unreasonable, even though new ATHs have not tended to come until after the halvenings - but at the same time, king daddy is not restricted to having to exactly follow any kind of historical pattern.... just because...

I am not really sure what to say.. except maybe to lean on the historical pattern to be more likely than to have an earlier breach to the upside of the ATH.. yet for sure, there is pretty strong persuasiveness to the ideas that the BTC price has been largely and overly suppressed, including but not limited to a lower than expected top in late 2021 and also a lower than expected bottom in 2022, including spending a decent amount of time significantly below the 200-week moving average for nearly 8 months.. so several of those factors could justify that the ATH is reached earlier than the fractal patterns of the earlier cycles.

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

we are now at 29.7k so lets do

$33,333.33 and .......

Whatever happened to $10k daily candles?  Maybe we are due for a $20k daily candle.?   And if it is not exactly daily, within a reasonable amount of time.

Maybe we have to get back up above $40k before $10k daily candles start to seem reasonable/feasible.. and maybe we have to get close or into new ATH territories before $20k daily-ish candles start to become "a thing."

[OROBTC]

...

I recently asked ChatGPT if the bot assigned any value to Technical Analysis in helping to predict future BTC prices.  Briefly, the bot responded yes.  But, I would place relatively little value in that bot's analysis of TA (I have relatively little faith in TA as a price prediction tool).

Of interest to some perhaps is a new bot I ran into today: ChatBTC (not ChatGPT).  This is a new AI effort focused on BTC.

https://chat.bitcoinsearch.xyz/

I just asked the below question:

Will the 12 BIP-39 words provide enough security in Bitcoin wallets for the next 10 years?

Bot response:

Holocat
Based on the provided context, it is clear that BIP-39 words are used for backup and restoration purposes in Bitcoin wallets. These words, typically consisting of 12, 18, or 24 words, can be used to easily backup, restore, or port private keys in multiple languages. However, the question specifically asks if 12 BIP-39 words will provide enough security in Bitcoin wallets for the next 10 years.

While the context does not directly answer this question, it does provide information about the use of BIP-39 words in Bitcoin wallets. BIP-39 words serve as a seed phrase that can be used to derive private keys. The security of BIP-39 words lies in the entropy they provide. With more words, the entropy increases, making it harder for an attacker to guess or brute-force the seed phrase.

Having said that, it is important to note that the security of a Bitcoin wallet depends on various factors, including the strength of the BIP-39 words, the protection of the seed phrase, and the robustness of the underlying wallet software. While 12 BIP-39 words can provide a certain level of security, it may not be sufficient for the next 10 years if there are advancements in attacks or if the seed phrase is compromised.

To enhance the security of your Bitcoin wallet, it is recommended to follow best practices such as using a hardware wallet, keeping the seed phrase offline and securely stored, and regularly updating the wallet software. Additionally, diversifying your storage by using multiple hardware wallets from different vendors can help mitigate the risk of vendor-specific vulnerabilities or server downtimes.

In conclusion, while 12 BIP-39 words can offer a certain level of security, it is always advisable to stay updated with the latest security practices and consider additional measures to protect your Bitcoin wallet.

Sources

• : https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/58094#58121
[1]:

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/105825#105827
[2]: https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/88115#88125
[3]: https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/68546#71647
[4]: https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/54979#54981
[5]: https://btctranscripts.com/stephan-livera-podcast/2021-07-17-andrew-chow


(I copied & pasted above response, the Forum changed some formatting a bit)

I am not nearly an expert in AI, but the bots seem to provide at least some value for now.  ChatBTC may be worth keeping an eye on.

[JayJuanGee]

Green candle $29836... Wonderful  

BTC$30k We can go soon..!

Holy fucking shit!!!!

Can you at least get your facts correct when you make memes or steal them or however you are getting them?

Last time I checked the yearly high was $31,818.

Observing $29,699…..nice!

Surely it’s time we hit another yearly high soon. You would expect seller exhaustion to show shortly. I feel like a bear slaying god candle will be arriving before we end the year. The halving is not too far away, Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will hopefully be a reality before the halving also.

Just send it please

Added the green candle helicopter. Now fly to higher levels and wait till 35k.
 Soon we see the volatility of the sellers which is only the market is now frozen by the buyers.
 The days of bear killing are over now the bull market is waiting.

You are prematurely ejaculating your excitement.  What else is new from the merit/begging lack of substance troll spamming twats?

[Paashaas]

Imagine this FAKE pump DUMPED straight in your flabbergasted face.

[Out of mind]

According to "contacts" from inside BlackRock and Invesco spot Bitcoin ETF approval a matter of "when, not if" likely in "four to six months - Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz on earnings call this morning.
_Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Who is John Galt?]

$35k in 5 days confirmed

Couldn’t sent 35 to support
Was at 25 max already

 

I gave him the other 25 you are covered.

So $50k confirmed?

Absolutely! Just not in five days, but a little later ...