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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368639 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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August 13, 2023, 02:57:42 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1)

Stuck at twenty-nine,
Bitcoin's dance in frozen time,
Price whispers decline.
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August 13, 2023, 03:03:29 PM


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August 13, 2023, 03:30:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

#Bitcoin   

Our outlook

2023 peak target: $50k
2024 (pre-halving): consolidation
2024 (post halving): New all time high (ATH)
2025/26 (Q4-Q1): Cycle peak
2026: Bear market


Details


Pretty much exactly what I’d expect but the 2023 peak is perhaps a little ambitious.

Let me have a go -

2023 peak target: $40,000
2024 (pre-halving): consolidation
2024 (post halving): New all time high (ATH - something like $86,000 as 2024 high)
2025 Cycle peak ($180,000 to $250,000)
2026: Bear market

Maybe 2023 peak of the different

I think that will happen-  Shocked Grin

2023 peak target: $45000/$50000
2024 (pre-halving): consolidation
2024 (post halving): New all time high (ATH - something like $75000/$80000 as 2024 high)
2025 Cycle peak ($100,000 to $150,000)
2026: Bear market
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August 13, 2023, 03:45:04 PM

buddy will cross the 100 straight 29k mark soon very soon.

There will be a reversal before that.

we are at 94 or 95 straight 29k marks.


As a miner more than anything else I can tell you 29k is very much an okay price for big miners.

So at the moment  big mining is driving price more than speculators.

It is an occasional 'thing' maybe 10 percent of the time so sooner or later the price will go back to the hands of investor/speculators.

Yeah and historically September has been red for the Bitcoin market for most of the time. It sounds crazy but i am expecting a fall towards 25k and i am happy about that. This correction could be the last one and it is good for the market.

I see us in the 2015-2016 slot or pattern.

which means we slowly drift upwards to 60-72k right before the ½ ing next year.

A sept rollback is possible but if you look at the 8-9 month slot in 2015-2016 price was good not great for mining.
So we may not get the large 10-15% rollback you predict.

Basically we look at old patterns and hope we repeat the pattern we guess.

Since I mine and hodl more then I buy and hold. I pick the older pattern I like. Reality is who knows.

It is true that historical patterns can give invaluable insight into the behavior of market movements but we need to consider that the bitcoin market has evolved a lot since the 2015-2016 cycle. Various elemental factors like regulation, institutional involvement, and technological advancement can redirect the market to a different path. I also believe that every cycle has a unique pattern though we can correlate them with the previous cycle.

32k has a strong resistance and it might be hard for the market to cross it and we have already seen it. I also agree with you about the reality that it is unexpected and full of surprises.
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August 13, 2023, 04:04:55 PM


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August 13, 2023, 04:12:51 PM
Last edit: August 13, 2023, 04:29:13 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by SamReomo (1)


Explanation
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74 in a row by buddy in (29k) slot
Hey buddy, just listen to @philipma1957 and move over the range of $29k now because he's also eager to see $30k, and I support him 100% with that eagerness. Go buddy you can do it with $30k after a few more rows. Till then @philipma1957 and I will wait to see that happen.
"Just Phil and Me."

Reminds me of the famous Living book series:

Just Grandma and Me.

I'm also there man! Count me in as well. Phil and you might be the main characters, but I may also be playing a minor role in that scenario. "Phil, JJG, and Sam" Somewhat more reliable and trust worthy title.

The bitcoin space seems to currently be skeptical of anyone named Sam.

And we could improve the title even more by doing something like this: "Phil, JJG, Sam, and Bitcoin." I believe that one is going to be the best title so far.

Something seems missing, but hey if you are going to compile our forum posts, for example, then there is likely enough materials for a few books.. I am not sure if they would be good books, or even if they would sell very well, but they likely would not be the worst of books out there.

Hey JJG and SamRemo buddy just dropped 77 in a row.

Who's counting?

Oh I guess you are, and your lil "prediction" of limiting Buddy to 67 in a row has been a wee bit off, no?

I don't think I've posted here in like 7 years if that helps.
Cool, what are you thoughts on the current state of affairs?

His thoughts are "poof"

That's why he had not posted for a while, but it would have had been nice to have had gotten a response.

third pressing and 29k again.

I think I will flip a switch on Sunday via a haiku

I'm sure that will help.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

just like most of your "voodoo" seeming techniques (and equally pathetic predictions)

As a miner more than anything else I can tell you 29k is very much an okay price for big miners.

So at the moment  big mining is driving price more than speculators.

It is an occasional 'thing' maybe 10 percent of the time so sooner or later the price will go back to the hands of investor/speculators.

Oh?  That's what is going on?
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August 13, 2023, 04:31:26 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
74 in a row by buddy in (29k) slot
Hey buddy, just listen to @philipma1957 and move over the range of $29k now because he's also eager to see $30k, and I support him 100% with that eagerness. Go buddy you can do it with $30k after a few more rows. Till then @philipma1957 and I will wait to see that happen.
"Just Phil and Me."

Reminds me of the famous Living book series:

Just Grandma and Me.

I'm also there man! Count me in as well. Phil and you might be the main characters, but I may also be playing a minor role in that scenario. "Phil, JJG, and Sam" Somewhat more reliable and trust worthy title.

The bitcoin space seems to currently be skeptical of anyone named Sam.

And we could improve the title even more by doing something like this: "Phil, JJG, Sam, and Bitcoin." I believe that one is going to be the best title so far.

Something seems missing, but hey if you are going to compile our forum posts, for example, then there is likely enough materials for a few books.. I am not sure if they would be good books, or even if they would sell very well, but they likely would not be the worst of books out there.

Hey JJG and SamRemo buddy just dropped 77 in a row.

Who's counting?

Oh I guess you are, and your lil "prediction" of limiting Buddy to 67 in a row has been a wee bit off, no?

I don't think I've posted here in like 7 years if that helps.
Cool, what are you thoughts on the current state of affairs?

His thoughts are "poof"

That's why he had not posted for a while, but it would have had been nice to have had gotten a response.

third pressing and 29k again.

I think I will flip a switch on Sunday via a haiku

I'm sure that will help.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

just like most of your "voodoo" seeming techniques (and equally pathetic predictions)

fuck you JayJuanGee      = 5
you inspired me to write = 7
this to switch not push   = 5





So lets see if we make the switch today. using the power of haiku, buddy be at 98 29k's in a row as I type.

Will Sunday haiku make the switch or not.

At JJG @ no homo I have zero desire to fuck you or make you fuck off all in fun on a boring Sunday


@JJG yeah there are times miners drive prices but I am sure you can't possibly agree to that.
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August 13, 2023, 04:41:13 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), philipma1957 (2)

Bitcoin will go up,
No need to despair and cry,
Moon is very soon!

Twenty nine will pass,
We will see new heights and peaks,
And dreams will come true!

Third haiku in row
Is better then twenty nine,
But that's it for now. Cheesy
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August 13, 2023, 04:53:32 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), BobLawblaw (2), vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1)

Stuck at twenty-nine,
Bitcoin's dance in frozen time,
Price whispers decline.


Not so fast, rancher!
Decline ain't gonna happen.
Go build your greenhouse.

#sundayhaikuchat
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August 13, 2023, 04:58:42 PM

The only thing #bitcoin will be halving is the price.


Source

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August 13, 2023, 05:03:28 PM


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August 13, 2023, 05:05:53 PM

buddy will cross the 100 straight 29k mark soon very soon.
There will be a reversal before that.
we are at 94 or 95 straight 29k marks.

As a miner more than anything else I can tell you 29k is very much an okay price for big miners.

So at the moment  big mining is driving price more than speculators.

It is an occasional 'thing' maybe 10 percent of the time so sooner or later the price will go back to the hands of investor/speculators.
Yeah and historically September has been red for the Bitcoin market for most of the time. It sounds crazy but i am expecting a fall towards 25k and i am happy about that. This correction could be the last one and it is good for the market.
I see us in the 2015-2016 slot or pattern.

which means we slowly drift upwards to 60-72k right before the ½ ing next year.

A sept rollback is possible but if you look at the 8-9 month slot in 2015-2016 price was good not great for mining.
So we may not get the large 10-15% rollback you predict.

Basically we look at old patterns and hope we repeat the pattern we guess.

Since I mine and hodl more then I buy and hold. I pick the older pattern I like. Reality is who knows.

I have some troubles with the idea of showing numbers (as if they were tops or something) that fall in the middle of what seems to be our current noman's zone of around $55k to $80k.. so it seems problematic to be suggesting that numbers between $55k-ish and $80k-ish would be very relevant.. including implying them as potential stopping points.. .

Maybe instead of no man's zone, it might better to refer to that price range as "bat country?"

Then at least we would have a meme to go along with the concept to attempt to make it more understandable in terms of what it means.



Stuck at twenty-nine,
Bitcoin's dance in frozen time,
Price whispers decline.


For the most part, price whisper's 50/50 odds

[edited out]
Maybe 2023 peak of the different

I think that will happen-  Shocked Grin

2023 peak target: $45000/$50000
2024 (pre-halving): consolidation
2024 (post halving): New all time high (ATH - something like $75000/$80000 as 2024 high)
2025 Cycle peak ($100,000 to $150,000)
2026: Bear market

Seems a bit bearish (or conservative), but o.k...

It probably does not hurt to error on the side of being more conservative.

because another thing is that that does not seem likely, but we should attempt to prepare for scenarios in which bitcoin merely performs right around similar to any other investment in our investment portfolio with perhaps something like a 6% to 12% CAGR... even though some argue that bitcoin has around a 100% CAGR, and I would argue that my own CAGR experience when it comes to bitcoin is in around the 75%-ish territory.. and so even getting more conservative with the actual real world performance CAGR is not necessarily a bad thing..and surely there are bear scenarios too, that seem less likely but they are always present, even if such more bearish scenarios don't seem to have very high odds of playing out.


[edited out]
32k has a strong resistance and it might be hard for the market to cross it and we have already seen it. I also agree with you about the reality that it is unexpected and full of surprises.

Who knows if $32k resistance is strong or not.. Sure people are suggesting it to be strong, but I have my doubts in spite of our not breaking through it and our not being above $32k for 14 months. 

In any event, I would characterize there to be right around 3 resistance points between our current prices and $100k.

So the lowest one would be around $35k, the second around $55k and the third one around $90k.  Of course ballpark ideas.. but just the current frame work that I am using for my own thinking about various potential sticking points on the way UPpity.. and sure it would not feel very good to NOT reach $100k in the next year or two or even 4 years, then (if not before that) probably there would be some needs to rethink the location of these various conceptual sticking points.

[edited out]
fuck you JayJuanGee      = 5
you inspired me to write = 7
this to switch not push   = 5

Lookie uie pooie getting all upsettie, and it is not even thursday... don't get too worked up too early in the week (or would it be late in the week?)

So lets see if we make the switch today. using the power of haiku, buddy be at 98 29k's in a row as I type.

Will Sunday haiku make the switch or not.

You are truly going to jinx this.

is that what you are trying to do?

some good ole reverse psychology?

At JJG @ no homo I have zero desire to fuck you or make you fuck off all in fun on a boring Sunday

Are you hitting on me?

@JJG yeah there are times miners drive prices but I am sure you can't possibly agree to that.

NOT!!!!!
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August 13, 2023, 05:12:24 PM

Stuck at twenty-nine,
Bitcoin's dance in frozen time,
Price whispers decline.


Not so fast, rancher!
Decline ain't gonna happen.
Go build your greenhouse.

#sundayhaikuchat


Source, Greenhouse Ideas for Your Yard

Father and son making Greenhouse.
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August 13, 2023, 05:15:51 PM

Bitcoin will go up,
No need to despair and cry,
Moon is very soon!

Twenty nine will pass,
We will see new heights and peaks,
And dreams will come true!

Third haiku in row
Is better then twenty nine,
But that's it for now. Cheesy

You fucked up your third line in your last haiku, which caused me to have to go back and check your work on all of them.

"that's" cannot ONLY be one syllable.. and you also have an emoji in there which has to be at least one syllable.
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August 13, 2023, 05:16:30 PM
Last edit: August 13, 2023, 05:27:14 PM by Biodom

Frozen here in time
bitcoin is moving forward;
halving is coming


# haiku

A funny non-haiku poem about bitcoiner "rancher Bob":

Ann laid an egg
       Cheryl laid an egg
              Susan laid an egg
                     Bob put all eggs in one basket

https://www.funnypoemsforlife.com/poems/bob
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August 13, 2023, 06:04:56 PM


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August 13, 2023, 06:15:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin will go up,
No need to despair and cry,
Moon is very soon!

Twenty nine will pass,
We will see new heights and peaks,
And dreams will come true!

Third haiku in row
Is better then twenty nine,
But that's it for now. Cheesy

You fucked up your third line in your last haiku, which caused me to have to go back and check your work on all of them.

"that's" cannot ONLY be one syllable.. and you also have an emoji in there which has to be at least one syllable.

Sunday evening game
Is how to count syllables
In varied haiku.

To count emoji
Or... "or to take arms against
A sea of troubles"...

And what we will have,
Regardless of the result,
Is soon to the moon!
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August 13, 2023, 06:52:56 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (7), xhomerx10 (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

Sweat-soaked Sunday pain,
CrossFit challenge missed my aim,
Disappointment reigns.


7th place
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August 13, 2023, 07:03:26 PM


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August 13, 2023, 07:19:41 PM

And we could improve the title even more by doing something like this: "Phil, JJG, Sam, and Bitcoin." I believe that one is going to be the best title so far.

Something seems missing, but hey if you are going to compile our forum posts, for example, then there is likely enough materials for a few books.. I am not sure if they would be good books, or even if they would sell very well, but they likely would not be the worst of books out there.


Hey, that's a really nice idea and I think if we make it a reality who knows that there would be some people who would buy our books and read them to learn something from those books. I agree with you that if someone compile's those posts then they already have enough material to make a few books that are worth reading.

I'm not really sure much about my posts, but I can surely say that your posts are amazing JJG and I find them very informative. You have made 27870 posts and they are increasing as you are still up and running to help the members of the forum.

There is no match of Phil on this forum because he has 42176 posts and they are increasing each day. I'm sure that it would take someone years of compilation to get a book out of that many posts. Man, you both are truly awesome, and I respect both of you from core of my heart.
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