Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down.  (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

[derpinheimer]

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

True, but bitstamp still has (by far) the biggest orderbook of any exchange right now.

And mtgox dwindled a lot towards its death, but that was mostly because of the price rising so much.


[Looks like a bid sum peaking around $70mil USD and an ask sum peaking at 30,000BTC in November 2013.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[niothor]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

that's funny, Chinese love manipulation..... it is about time that PBOC release a new statement to clear all the FUD and explain once again and clearly their position about Bitcoin and give a strict guidance to prevent manipulation...

Glad you said new , because they have already issued this statement three times or more but seems like people just don't want to listen

[Pruden]

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

True, but bitstamp still has (by far) the biggest orderbook of any exchange right now.

And mtgox dwindled a lot towards its death, but that was mostly because of the price rising so much.


[Looks like a bid sum peaking around $70mil USD and an ask sum peaking at 30,000BTC in November 2013.

I was always a bit worried that the grind from July to October was powered by a constant amount of fiat and decreasing supply of Bitcoins. I supposed it was due to the combination of price increasing and MtGox losing market share by 15% every month, but with what we now know about them I'm not so sure...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

price is going up at last for at least a bit.
$5xx look much better than $4xx.

And it is making me more optimistic about nearest hours.

[Richy_T]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

that's funny, Chinese love manipulation..... it is about time that PBOC release a new statement to clear all the FUD and explain once again and clearly their position about Bitcoin and give a strict guidance to prevent manipulation...

Glad you said new , because they have already issued this statement three times or more but seems like people just don't want to listen

It's like the food. You have one statement then a couple of hours later, you want another.

[niothor]

price is going up at last for at least a bit.
$5xx look much better than $4xx.

And it is making me more optimistic about nearest hours.

Unless you are a permabear , I really don't have a clue why somebody would say the opposite.
Oh , people who forgot to HODL. ?

[niothor]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

that's funny, Chinese love manipulation..... it is about time that PBOC release a new statement to clear all the FUD and explain once again and clearly their position about Bitcoin and give a strict guidance to prevent manipulation...

Glad you said new , because they have already issued this statement three times or more but seems like people just don't want to listen

It's like the food. You have one statement then a couple of hours later, you want another.

Love that analogy ... but.
You really want to eat the same stuff over and over again? . How about something new?
Something lighter... that could take us to the moon

[wachtwoord]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

Wait what?? lol
Wasn't 3rd party deposits banned??

See my previous posts, this apparently was the cause of the short-lived bump at 04-17 05:12 UTC. 

I belive that these "TOP-UP" cards are not the same thing as "3rd party payment processors depositing directly into Huobi's  bank account".  There seens to be a "4th party" involved, a card-issuing company.  The card company receives the money from Huobi clients via bank wire transfers or the 3rd party payment company, "recharges" the clients' cards, and then the cards can be used somehow to deposit money into the clients' internal Huobi accounts .  Thay is what I fantasized understood from Google Translate's output.

I wonder if the PBoC will be happy with that solution, but I would guess that they did not ask the PBoC beforehand...

Yes this is getting quite ridiculous. Now we have 3rd party to 3rd party (4th party?) what's next? 3rd party to 3rd party to 3rd party?

[billyjoeallen]

. This was the inevitable consequence of their neo-mercantilist foreign trade policy, as it was for Japan and every other country that tried it.

Could you develop please? Not sure what you mean...

When the government and/or Central Bank of a country has an explicit and intentional policy of having a positive trade surplus. You would think that this would be a good policy until you look for the hidden costs.

By intentionally devaluing their currency (in order to make their exports look cheaper to the buyers), they also increase their input costs, because foreign raw materials get more expensive. They know this will happen, but think an abundance of cheap domestic labor will more than compensate. They are generally right, but there is a limit.  As their customers--countries with trade deficits--get poorer (as they usually will with large sustained and growing trade deficits), they have less and less ability to buy until they can only buy on credit. So the neo-mercantilist country lends them money (usually in the form of buying government bonds from the customer country . This amounts to loans that become increasingly less and less likely to get paid back.

The United States is almost certainly going to default on its government bonds in one of two ways: either a hard default where we stop making interest payments or more likely a soft default where we crank up our own printing presses and pay interest with devalued money.  The American government has already begun this process.

Basically Chinese capital is heavily invested in factories making stuff for foreigners and in domestic real estate developments. Neither of these markets show signs of much further growth and the capital was borrowed, which means they have little ability to withstand a prolonged downturn. To make matters worse, much of their population were former farm workers who moved to the cities when the farms modernized. If these people lose or cannot find employment, civil unrest becomes increasingly likely.

Then the politicians will do what politicians always do: look for someone else to blame for their mistakes. The most extreme example of this is Germans blaming Jews in the 1930s, but any group will suffice if there is a pretext. If the situation deteriorates far enough, a probable outcome is war.

The situation is much more complicated than that, but I have tried to give a simplified version. I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Neo-mercantilism is not free trade. It is managed trade by managers who do not and cannot know how the resources should properly be deployed.  It always ends badly.

[chessnut]

going to plan.

[Richy_T]

Love that analogy ... but.
You really want to eat the same stuff over and over again? . How about something new?
Something lighter... that could take us to the moon

[zimmah]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

Wait what?? lol
Wasn't 3rd party deposits banned??

See my previous posts, this apparently was the cause of the short-lived bump at 04-17 05:12 UTC. 

I belive that these "TOP-UP" cards are not the same thing as "3rd party payment processors depositing directly into Huobi's  bank account".  There seens to be a "4th party" involved, a card-issuing company.  The card company receives the money from Huobi clients via bank wire transfers or the 3rd party payment company, "recharges" the clients' cards, and then the cards can be used somehow to deposit money into the clients' internal Huobi accounts .  Thay is what I fantasized understood from Google Translate's output.

I wonder if the PBoC will be happy with that solution, but I would guess that they did not ask the PBoC beforehand...

Yes this is getting quite ridiculous. Now we have 3rd party to 3rd party (4th party?) what's next? 3rd party to 3rd party to 3rd party?

no but seriously, i guess we'll have another "ban" in a couple of days.

Eventually we'll probably arrive at a point where we'll just ignore China.

Don't the governments realize that having a lot of bitcoin hodlers in your country will actually most likely increase the wealth of your citizens (and therefore the GDP?) of your country? Or maybe that's what they are trying to prevent, because poor people are easier to control.

[Rampion]

Houbi is now accepting 3rd party deposits just announced on their site.

http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=323&lang=en

Wait what?? lol
Wasn't 3rd party deposits banned??

See my previous posts, this apparently was the cause of the short-lived bump at 04-17 05:12 UTC. 

I belive that these "TOP-UP" cards are not the same thing as "3rd party payment processors depositing directly into Huobi's  bank account".  There seens to be a "4th party" involved, a card-issuing company.  The card company receives the money from Huobi clients via bank wire transfers or the 3rd party payment company, "recharges" the clients' cards, and then the cards can be used somehow to deposit money into the clients' internal Huobi accounts .  Thay is what I fantasized understood from Google Translate's output.

I wonder if the PBoC will be happy with that solution, but I would guess that they did not ask the PBoC beforehand...

You seem desperate to prove how doomed Bitcoin is, but you can't deny that PBoC policy is irrelevant to Bitcoin in the long term.

Bitcoin is resilient to bank policy by design.

[chessnut]

I got my bid orders on 432

maybe it's a bit low??

Aa an EW analyst, 432 is in the range of wave one. if you ask me we will probably never see 431 again. but dont take my word for it. you need to have a breakout plan if you cant wait for your own targets.

[windjc]

going to plan.

Lol. Going to plan? Your first image support line was breached dude.

[solex]

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

You are so right about the importance of volume but I am just not sure that MtGox is a valid benchmark anymore. Peter's theory that they lost most of their coins in the 2011 hack would imply that a lot of their 2012/2013 orderbook depth was, shall we say, "inflated".

[windjc]

Whys is no one mentioning the obvious bear flag on Houbi. Its literally waving at us.

My prediction for today: Houbi goes up to 3200 and everyone on this forum shouts "MOON MF!!!!!".

Then it drops back down to 2980.

I'm feeling pretty good about this one.