Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Where have you been, Cipher? Nearly a month missing from your own "analysis" thread.

It's odd we don't see you here now that you were so incredibly far off the mark with your random price guesses. I'm sorry, I meant "math." That's what you claimed to use, right, when Arepo inquired about your prediction?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871.msg5816338#msg5816338

I mean you assured us we'd only drop to $580 in March (maybe 550 at lowest), not $450 as we did. Your price acumen also led us to believe we'd see $694 on 4/16 -- why are we at $480? At nearly $220 off the mark that means you're wrong by roughly 45%! Eekgads, man. I guess it's back to peddling stolen software codes and other fishy Bitcoin enterprises...

Here is the post I originally wrote to you but did not submit because I wanted to give you some rope... Enjoy! (imagine this post starts with you asking, "When did I guess wrong?")

-----
You haven't given it enough time yet. You understand humans don't know the future, right? Being correct once or twice or even 3 times about a future event doesn't mean you know anything more about the future than my 3-year old niece or my pet dog. It may make you observant. It may make you fortunate. It doesn't make you future gnostic. Fortunately for your efforts humans are superstitious.

You made the prediction a day ago. I think most people here are assuming it looked like there would be a drop of up to $20-$100 and then believe it'll rise. You didn't exactly go out on a limb. But of course the first thing you do on the drop, to gain trust, is jump into a thread you do not participate in and declare your genius to the world. Your post history has nearly ZERO price prediction before yesterday.

Look, whatever scam you're up to just hasn't played out yet. You're involved in every scammy/scummy Bitcoin enterprise in existence. It is leading to only one end, and that is you running with other people's BTC without them receiving whatever you promised. The community doesn't need any more of YOU.

Seriously, you're selling gift cards, used electronics (oh, by the way you declared you're starting a "bitcoin museum" and are looking for stuff "super cheap"), video game codes, ASIC hosting (how generous of you), hashing power payouts, prognostication services (preparing to sell this, or just driving people to your awesome WP site?), buying used Casascius coins "for fun", etc. You are a walking scam waiting to explode.

You're in the "gaining trust" phase either for a bigger event or waiting to see which smaller scam offers quickest/biggest returns, have likely scammed others in the past (or perhaps you're a young gamer and burgeoning thief?), and are ready to move into the phase where you either start taking payments for pyramids, fortune telling services or start selling more expensive stuff that never arrives.

Or perhaps how long until folks realize their "hosted" machines are supplying the "hashing power" you're selling? You posted in January 2014: "I absolutely LOVE your setup! now to find a datacenter to host some of my miners.." Yet you now offer hosting services yourself? What are you, a Joe Blow reseller who has magically found a way to make ROI on miner hosting? You're probably running a bunch of smaller varying scam setups waiting to see which one begins to pay out the most more quickly.

But you should thank me for this post. Something like it gets posted in the lifetime of every scammer. Unfortunately it causes the dumbest humans to defend you because it does actually appear you haven't scammed anyone yet or haven't been caught. Congrats on that. We wouldn't want to jump to any conclusions about you. So for now, everyone can pile on me and tell me what a terrible human I am. I mean, you're just an entrepreneur, trying to make a buck, right?
-----

BOOM goes the dynamite!  I don't know that guy from Jack, but I love a good verbal beat down and that qualifies. Keyser is Verbal, kint you get it?

Many times I see Keyser's posts are short, but NOT this one....   Good post!!!

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[billyjoeallen]

Paycheck Friday looking pretty boring so far. Let's start a rumor that Karpeles is now a supervillain living in Fukashima and demanding a million BTC ransom or he'll flood Tokyo with radioactive frappuccino.

[JayJuanGee]

just got back from vacation, a few hours ago, didn't have a chance to watch price for like 7 days, feels weird being on a computer again.

One or two days ago, I speculated your return would be no later than 4/20 - but thinking more like 4/19 (at least before the poll ended).  In my humble estimation, I was about 80% correct.

Now, if I could get bitcoin prices 80% correct, I would be rich, rich, rich.   

[JorgeStolfi]

I don't know whether this is useful to the readers of this thread, but it seems to be at least interesting:

From George Papageorgiou and Øystein Aaby, former top employees of Neo & Bee
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

[ ... ] In defence of the sudden announcement on the 19th of March that the company only had 140 bitcoins remaining, Mr. Brewster stated in front of the same people that he had mis-accounted for 5000 of his own bitcoins, bitcoins he thought he owned but after “checking” a wallet, realised had actually spent them all. [ ... ]

Mr. Brewster claims varying amounts between 1400 and 1700 of the company’s bitcoins were lost in We-exchange/Bitfunder. Mr. Brewster’s claims that none of the company’s coins were lost in Mt. Gox directly contradict information given on the 19th of March to the whole of the management team, that we [ N&B ] in fact lost 2480 bitcoins in Mt. Gox. [ ... ]

At the same time, it appears to us, that he customarily made payments through his Bitstamp account to creditors, and many of us have multiple indications that he was trading there and in every other major exchange. When asked, he always replied that it was his personal holdings. There are conflicting statements from him, which indicate that he never separated the company funds from his personal. Bitcoins lost in the exchanges were at some points reported to be his, and at other the company’s.

[keithers]

as usual...the poll voting is heavily weighted to the very top and very bottom of the voting options... this always seems to be the case with the voting on this forum

[octaft]

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption for actual use as opposed to speculation: how does it benefit the consumer? It's advertised as a great way to protect merchants, but if the consumer won't use it because they don't get any additional benefit for going through the trouble, it doesn't matter how many merchants accept it.

[mah87]

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption for actual use as opposed to speculation: how does it benefit the consumer? It's advertised as a great way to protect merchants, but if the consumer won't use it because they don't get any additional benefit for going through the trouble, it doesn't matter how many merchants accept it.

$

True. that's why Ripple will win the race on the long run.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption for actual use as opposed to speculation: how does it benefit the consumer? It's advertised as a great way to protect merchants, but if the consumer won't use it because they don't get any additional benefit for going through the trouble, it doesn't matter how many merchants accept it.

The benefit  to consumers is that your funds are safe from confiscation by inflation or outright takings.

Imagine all the fees used to built the Bank of America tower were refunded to BoA customers.  

Imagine a world in which your private affairs were private, and you were free to transact with anyone as you saw fit.  Freedom is a  huge benefit.

[mah87]

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption for actual use as opposed to speculation: how does it benefit the consumer? It's advertised as a great way to protect merchants, but if the consumer won't use it because they don't get any additional benefit for going through the trouble, it doesn't matter how many merchants accept it.

The benefit  to consumers is that your funds are safe from confiscation by inflation or outright takings.

Imagine all the fees used to built the Bank of America tower were refunded to BoA customers.  

yep but the consumer is fully exposed to volatility which is far worst than inflation ...

[KeyserSoze]

From George Papageorgiou and Øystein Aaby, former top employees of Neo & Bee
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

In Antonopoulos' response I find it interesting he says, "I will continue to advocate for security controls rather than trust in individuals." This really drives a stake into the heart of Bitcoin philosophy which is something like, "Trust in math and individuals rather than the relative security of banks."
http://antonopoulos.com/2014/04/18/neo-bee-a-statement-by-andreas-m-antonopoulos-a-consultants-perspective/

We have banks because even though they do naughty things from time to time, they are relatively secure whereas individuals are not. Perhaps recently banks have begun to wear out their welcome by overstepping but we shouldn't forget life is about balance. Perhaps Bitcoin won't replace banks but will find a role in keeping banks from being so overbearing.

[Davyd05]

From George Papageorgiou and Øystein Aaby, former top employees of Neo & Bee
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

In Antonopoulos' response I find it interesting he says, "I will continue to advocate for security controls rather than trust in individuals." This really drives a stake into the heart of Bitcoin philosophy which is something like, "Trust in math and individuals rather than the relative security of banks."
http://antonopoulos.com/2014/04/18/neo-bee-a-statement-by-andreas-m-antonopoulos-a-consultants-perspective/

We have banks because even though they do naughty things from time to time, they are relatively secure whereas individuals are not. Perhaps recently banks have begun to wear out their welcome by overstepping but we shouldn't forget life is about balance. Perhaps Bitcoin won't replace banks but will find a role in keeping banks from being so overbearing.

As long as people are getting 0-1% interest on cash holdings.. that the banks can then loan out.. and in theory fractionally reserve style. Just because there hasn't been a bank run since the depression cause they probably figured out the majority of the controls to stop that form happening following that...and accompany that along with laws that prevent banks runs in America.. we don't really know how trust worthy Banks are.

I mean the taxpayers bailed out the richest fuck ups in the last crisis lol... banks.. safer.. pshhhhhh

[KeyserSoze]

...Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption...

The benefit  to consumers is that your funds are safe from confiscation by inflation or outright takings.

You're a smart guy but you fail to think like a marketer. The majority of the world doesn't want to hear paranoid Libertarian rants, whether they're true or not. You must talk to the majority as either children or horny adults. Tell them Bitcoin is fun! Tell them they can tip each other for the coolest/funniest Reddit comments! Promise them candy, or drugs and sex. Stop talking to them about the blockchain, cool as it is.

BTW, DPR got his coins confiscated and people get coins outright taken all the time so maybe re-evaluate your rhetoric. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation (i meant inflation, i mean deflation, aw fuck it, the price dropped!) since November?

[mah87]

...Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption...

The benefit  to consumers is that your funds are safe from confiscation by inflation or outright takings.

You're a smart guy but you fail to think like a marketer. The majority of the world doesn't want to hear paranoid Libertarian rants, whether they're true or not. You must talk to the majority as either children or horny adults. Tell them Bitcoin is fun! Tell them they can tip each other for the coolest/funniest Reddit comments! Promise them candy, or drugs and sex. Stop talking to them about the blockchain, cool as it is.

BTW, DPR got his coins confiscated and people get coins outright taken all the time so maybe re-evaluate your rhetoric. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

how do you address volatility problem ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[edwardspitz]

I'm having an absolute ball watching Huobi and OKCoin. Much action on low volume. It is so cute to see them wait for each other. Maybe they will have a fight for 2900 later. I think the bulls will win that one and they will be back at 3000 or maybe 3200 if things go crazy.

[aminorex]

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined.  I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated.  Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

[edwardspitz]

There is much talk about Wall Street entering the Bitcoin trade and a lot of people hope for that. Mining is one area of the Bitcoin economy that has already gone from amateur to pro, and I think that most of the remaining "amateur" miners have been in the game since the beginning. They are semi pro and of course in hard competition with owners of data centers. If I understand correctly the current price makes it unprofitable to mine Bitcoins. You would think that it was in all miners interest to keep the price high enough to make it profitable for them to mine. But I speculate that the competition among miners and mining companies is so fierce, that some them might actually see a benefit in keeping the price low for a period in order to weed out the competition. Any thoughts on this?

[Post-Cosmic]

i'm back buy Buy BUY!!

 

.. ;o  The Ice Cube Crumbles..!~~@!!@!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD0g_oEDs3o

WB dearest spheniscidae, how was Antarctica..?

[..]

..or he'll flood Tokyo with radioactive frappuccino.

  

[KeyserSoze]

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined.  I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated.  Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

I mean the value of Bitcoin went down, just as the dollar does when it inflates. Whether it is anticipated or not has no bearing on your original claim. Same with whether Ross secured his funds properly or not. You know this. You're not stupid. You simply have rhetoric that you don't want to back away from. Some might call that disingenuous, especially since you're smart enough to realize your mistake.