Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

...

Troll.

Keyser is no troll, as you well know...what happened to you Aminorex?

To be clear, I was describing the post, not the author.  (One may be known to others by one's deeds, but we are not identical even to the sum of our deeds; far less are we characterized properly by any one deed.)

[rpietila]

This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random).  So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges.  With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.

If you don't believe me now because of a low R^2, why don't you believe the exponential trendline which has R^2 = 0.94?  

Yes, I know it's very low but in this kind of game where you can use leverage if you want etc., every edge is an opportunity. Unless it is purely random, which I don't believe. I intend to run the same analysis for different lengths of time, perhaps to find better results.

One of the fascinating things about Bitcoin is that a random month is positive with 60% probability and only 40% is negative.

[rpietila]

Indeed.  In fact, we have a blockchain that can provide audited records to show who has the best results.  If only we had a way to link the BTC addresses in the blockchain to posters here.  Ah, but we do.  A signature can provide that proof.

Nah. People play with different size of stack, for example.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[solex]

I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors

Lots of funky predictions here, some of which were right!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.0

[boumalo]

I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors

You need to have a standard how to measure the goodness of the prediction.

I said that the price would go to 450 when it was 850, and it did, 2 days after. Many thought that was impressive.

If I now say that price will go to 450, it is not very impressive.

In my thread there is a prediction contest, and the idea is that the average of other predictions become the standard that you have to beat, to get some glory and fame.

Yes of course

I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors

 'Someone' has already invented such a prediction-validating mechanism. In fact, this very thread was originally created for speculators who engage in such predictions.

 It occured in very rudimentary forms since ancient times, saw a further sophistication during Roman rule, disappeared during the dark ages (obviously), reappeared in the late middle ages mostly around Italian city-states, & finally, emerged in its modern financial trading market form in ~1602 in the Netherlands, as the Dutch East India Company's shares were first traded among investors.

 Later, the ~1880's featured the advent of something yet closer to current currency/crypto trading exchanges - world currencies began to be backed by gold, and the first large-scale retail forex trades started taking place.

 It wasn't until 1996 that the Internet gave these foreign currency exchanges the capacity to run the entirety of trading electronically. Various digital new currency projects such as e-Gold/etc were soon undertaken excitedly by a series of hopeful entrepreneurs.

 ..Sadly, in large part due to vulnerable centralization & the absence of math-based strong encryption systems as core features of these innovations, they ended up failing & dimming public opinion of any digital currency concepts as irreedeemably flawed Ponzi schemes. Nevertheless, amongst the ashes of these unsuccessful experiments, a different, vastly more sound, secure & viable project came to light : Bitcoin.

 It is thusly that in early 2011 the very first bitcoin exchange markets were founded, bringing us full-circle to the present day as we find, with the warmth of serene satisfaction, that exchange markets indeed offer the best mechanism through which to filter the least skilled from the most skilled predictors, by comparing traders' accounts' initial investments with their net equity several months or years later.

^{(Sorry, I just love history xD)}

Very interesting

"https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.0"
We have a few posts of rpietila; posts were extremely bullish and positive in May 2013, it is different now

[nrd525]

This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random).  So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges.  With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.

If you don't believe me now because of a low R^2, why don't you believe the exponential trendline which has R^2 = 0.94?  

Yes, I know it's very low but in this kind of game where you can use leverage if you want etc., every edge is an opportunity. Unless it is purely random, which I don't believe. I intend to run the same analysis for different lengths of time, perhaps to find better results.

One of the fascinating things about Bitcoin is that a random month is positive with 60% probability and only 40% is negative.

I've been leaning towards trading the exponential line =) 
Though I'm trying to use a value-based approach (to the extent that it is possible - eg lots of guesswork).  So I'll also evaluate the size and quality of the bitcoin community, start-ups, media attention, regulation, and competition.

[escalicha]

Sell off... NEWS? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Post-Cosmic]

I wish someone would take a few months to gather all the predictions made in this forum and make a list of the best nd worst predictors

 'Someone' has already invented such a prediction-validating mechanism. In fact, this very thread was originally created for speculators who engage in such predictions.

 It occured in very rudimentary forms since ancient times, saw a further sophistication during Roman rule, disappeared during the dark ages (obviously), reappeared in the late middle ages mostly around Italian city-states, & finally, emerged in its modern financial trading market form in ~1602 in the Netherlands, as the Dutch East India Company's shares were first traded among investors.

 Later, the ~1880's featured the advent of something yet closer to current currency/crypto trading exchanges - world currencies began to be backed by gold, and the first large-scale retail forex trades started taking place.

 It wasn't until 1996 that the Internet gave these foreign currency exchanges the capacity to run the entirety of trading electronically. Various digital new currency projects such as e-Gold/etc were soon undertaken excitedly by a series of hopeful entrepreneurs.

 ..Sadly, in large part due to vulnerable centralization & the absence of math-based strong encryption systems as core features of these innovations, they ended up failing & dimming public opinion of any digital currency concepts as irreedeemably flawed Ponzi schemes. Nevertheless, amongst the ashes of these unsuccessful experiments, a different, vastly more sound, secure & viable project came to light : Bitcoin.

 It is thusly that in early 2011 the very first bitcoin exchange markets were founded, bringing us full-circle to the present day as we find, with the warmth of serene satisfaction, that exchange markets indeed offer the best mechanism through which to filter the least skilled from the most skilled predictors, by comparing traders' accounts' initial investments with their net equity several months or years later.

^{(Sorry, I just love history xD)}

Indeed.  In fact, we have a blockchain that can provide audited records to show who has the best results.  If only we had a way to link the BTC addresses in the blockchain to posters here.  Ah, but we do.  A signature can provide that proof.

As I understand it, P2P transactions such as between users of LocalBitCoins are definitely on-blockchain, for buy's & sell's ; While on the opposite end of the spectrum, Coinbase internal transactions (when users buy btc using bank acct funds & sell/convert btc to send fiat to their bank accts) are off-blockchain ; I was under the impression that the blockchain did not record every single trade executed on bitfinex, bitstamp, btc-e & co., am I mistaken..?

Or is it indeed, that for the blockchain to record any one trader's profitability/loss over time, they would have to withdraw funds from their exchange trading wallet, into their private storage wallet so the new, net amount of funds now possessed gets recorded on blockchain..?

Sell off... NEWS? 

Yea I'm wondering that too.. Might just be a whale that needed some $ for something. There's always that 'April 20th chinese bnk acct closure' rumor that accompanied the Apr. 18th one.. Could be that, even though it's Sunday over there atm o.O

[edwardspitz]

Sell off... NEWS?  

My guess:
- Bad news
- Insider knowledge
- An attempt to trigger stop loss orders or similar
- Someone is trying to get a feel for the sentiment
- Someone is trying to better his/her position in case we go down (maybe not so likely)
- A long(ish) term investor decided that now was the best time to take home profits and dumped

I predicted the the 2900 drop and suggested a possible rise to 3200 today (I was lucky), but since then I have been in the dark. Some people believe we might go down and test $450. If that test fails it could be pretty bad I guess. Today low priced coins have been raining down on the bulls, but it is very difficult to tell if whoever is doing that is loosing control or if if the bulls are playing right into the hands of the bears. That is my take on the current situation which is not very useful. I could very well be totally wrong... I don't have that much experience and I haven't encountered a situation like this before. I would like to hear from anybody who can provide alternative explanation(s).

Edit: spelling

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

[Newfeeling]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

https://i.imgflip.com/894ba.jpg

[KeyserSoze]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly.

[chessnut]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly.

what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake.

.... I'll change the odds just for you keyser. I say we pass 580 before 480.

[KeyserSoze]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly.

what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake.

Just as cleromancy was analysis for the Bronze Age. They got it right @50% as well, just like you.

[chessnut]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly.

what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake.

Just as cleromancy was analysis for the Bronze Age. They got it right @50% as well, just like you.

I have proof you are 100% wrong.
I make new odds for you..... 580 before 480. my analysis at stake.
I heard you lost some coins yesterday, what was your analysis? (I didnt lose any -made lots)

[edwardspitz]

On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.

Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly.

what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake.

I will be interesting to see. Maybe there has been some signs of exhaustion, but is is very difficult to evaluate (for me at least  ). Also we may not see 450 again if "insiders" change their strategy now.

[techboy]

I think this is just the holy week where some banks are closed.