Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[goldkingcoiner]

Once we will be at $100K-1mil/btc, many peeps might be interested in longevity.
It is somewhat sad that it might not happen for those over 60 (not enough time, probably, but not necessarily), but 50ies and below should have benefit from something like this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension

The critical point is this:

We already know HOW to rejuvenate cells, so the problem is of engineering the process with the most benefit and least side effects (which could be significant).
Temporarily "pulsing" Yamanaka factors (basically four transcription factors) in mice in an optimal fashion resulted in 30% lifespan increase.
Achieving similar results in humans would mean 80 yr--->104 yr average lifetime expansion.
At least half a dozen of well to very well financed companies are in pursuit.
I'll give it 20 years, at most, for a solution.

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

[1714290792]

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[1714290792]

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[1714290792]

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[nutildah]

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

I have. One of my neighbors is 84 and he told me he plans to live to 100-110. He lived an active life, does yoga every day, reads books about life extension, keeps his mind active. But then again some people are just luckier than others, and I don't even believe in free will.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I really would like to see a push to 48k+

Really hard to say... if we are going to be able to make $48k + by the end of the year.  Surely it is far from impossible, and sometimes BIG fireworks do end up happening around this time of the year.. even though the direction of such fireworks (if you know what I mean?) is not always clearly in one direction versus another.  There are ONLY two weeks left in the year (or do we say, a wee bit less than two weeks?)...

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

That's one of the tricky things about dee corns because just around half a day ago, it was looking as if the odds for sub $40k were getting quite high.. at least higher than 50/50.. and yet, did not end ujp happening in that particular run.. so who is going to say. .was that just a fake out and we are resuming UP, or is our current UP a fake out and we are returning DOWN?  I am not going to say, and I even hardly give too many shits since we still seem to be in the midst of a currently pretty large don't wake me up zone, if anyone had not realized it to be something in the ballpark of $35k to $55k... snooze, snooze, snooze.. if you know what I am trying to say?

Well today I did a send from Nicehash wallet via LN sent around 0.0015 fee was 0.00000014

I then used kraken to send  0.0015 to nicehash via LN fee was 0.00000014

So far testing show nicehash can send and receive via LN up to 1.5 ltc

I thought that we were talking about bitcoin in this here lovely thread, and lighting is a part of bitcoin, so how are you tying litecoin (LTC) into the discussion?  Are you suggesting that you can recharge your custodial wallet with LTC and then use it to transact in BTC?  or instead, since I see that nicehash is probably your mining group, so they are converting whatever your shitcoins are into bitcoin?

By the way, I had been considering various ways to charge a lightning wallet, and sure I prefer self-custodial rather than third-party custodial, but if we are in a pinch, then no problem using custodial and even using various shitcoins, but if we are not in a pinch then shouldn't we be trying to figure out various reasons to try to use bitcoin and bitcoin-related products rather than devolving into talking about shitcoins, but I see if you are talking about your mining pool then they allow you to mine shitcoins and maybe other ways of interchanging coins, so I suppose that you might be able to make some kind of connection to bitcoin, even though you did not really state the context very clearly.. 

I am well aware funds on nicehash are not in my custody

Also for that matter my kraken fees are at risk.

I am not sure if I understand this point because you are testing sending back and forth, and so you are suggesting that only fees are at risk?  How about the whole transaction is at risk if it does not go through?  or if it bounces back then you end up getting the refund and paying the fees?  I still don't quite get what you mean.
 

these accounts never hold a lot of value and I now have two different ways to do LN sends or receives.

if I want to shift to coinbase they do not do LN yet.

maybe next year all these are KYC accounts.

Why are you even going down this road?  Sure it is o.k. to learn that you can use some of you third-party custodial wallets to transact with lightning in various kinds of ways, but I doubt that any of us should be promoting the use of custodial services to transact, even though it could be an option in a pinch, but if we are not in a pinch, and we are trying to have some level of self-sovereignty, shouldn't we also be attempting to have some options that are self-custody rather than going through various kinds of third-party custodial systems?   

I am not even trying to proclaim that you have to do anything, but there are some systems that are more resilent than others.

Even with mining, it seems a bit problematic if so many of them are KYC mining, and so I know if they want to operate and if they are big then they are a target and they likely have to KYC, and so maybe that was part of the excitement about Ocean, even though they have some other kinds of problems that might be getting in the way of their ability to attract customers.. if they are censoring ordinals and inscriptions and other kinds of sneaky practices, then some miners might be reluctant to mine with them, and of course, there seems to be some attraction to larger pools in order to have greater possible rewards.. so nothing is exactly and completely straight-forward.

I am doing a show and tell thread on using LN but not on self custody LN
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478443.msg63346745#msg63346745
when using Nicehash or kraken which I used so far.

you dont have the keys so the coins can be taken away via hack or freeze.

Hopefully, you or someone else can do some of these show and tell with self-custodial types of solutions, and so many of us are probably hoping for lightning network to become more and more popular and easy to use, but we also want to figure out various easier ways to use wallets that are closer to self-custodial types of solutions.  Here is a post that I made in October 2022 in Fillippone's Lightning Network Observer thread when I was first weighing which lightning network wallets to move to after Blue wallet announced that it was discontinuing its lightning node for the use of others.

[Biodom]

Once we will be at $100K-1mil/btc, many peeps might be interested in longevity.
It is somewhat sad that it might not happen for those over 60 (not enough time, probably, but not necessarily), but 50ies and below should have benefit from something like this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension

The critical point is this:

We already know HOW to rejuvenate cells, so the problem is of engineering the process with the most benefit and least side effects (which could be significant).
Temporarily "pulsing" Yamanaka factors (basically four transcription factors) in mice in an optimal fashion resulted in 30% lifespan increase.
Achieving similar results in humans would mean 80 yr--->104 yr average lifetime expansion.
At least half a dozen of well to very well financed companies are in pursuit.
I'll give it 20 years, at most, for a solution.

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

You don't seem to understand the biology of this "new" thing.
Think about this in the following way: does the newborn child of a 60 yer old father looks like a 60 year old or like a brand "new" human?
Obviously, not like a 60 year old person, right? This led biologists to think that within an older individual there is "something" that does not age, basically-the concept of an immortal "germ line". This "germ line immortality" is a very well known feature, and now we are at the cusp of not only understanding, but maybe even controlling this.

Forget about decrepitude...we are talking about full functionality here, not prolonging the status of being 80 year old in perpetuity.
Like being 40 for 4-6 decades, maybe.
There are biological models with these properties already: there is a bat that lives more than 30 years while most of other bat species live 7-8. There are also examples where this is hormonally controlled-the queen female of naked mole rats colony lives about four decades while being fertile over all this time while the rest of the colony individuals live only 3-4 years (a 10X life expansion).

[TrustedBitcoiner]

Once we will be at $100K-1mil/btc, many peeps might be interested in longevity.
It is somewhat sad that it might not happen for those over 60 (not enough time, probably, but not necessarily), but 50ies and below should have benefit from something like this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension

The critical point is this:

We already know HOW to rejuvenate cells, so the problem is of engineering the process with the most benefit and least side effects (which could be significant).
Temporarily "pulsing" Yamanaka factors (basically four transcription factors) in mice in an optimal fashion resulted in 30% lifespan increase.
Achieving similar results in humans would mean 80 yr--->104 yr average lifetime expansion.
At least half a dozen of well to very well financed companies are in pursuit.
I'll give it 20 years, at most, for a solution.

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

You don't seem to understand the biology of this "new" thing.
Think about this in the following way: does the newborn child of a 60 yer old father looks like a 60 year old or like a brand "new" human?
Obviously, not like a 60 year old person, right? This led biologists to think that within an older individual there is "something" that does not age, basically-the concept of an immortal "germ line". This "germ line immortality" is a very well known feature, and now we are at the cusp of not only understanding, but maybe even controlling this.

Forget about decrepitude...we are talking about full functionality here, not prolonging the status of being 80 year old in perpetuity.
Like being 40 for 4-6 decades, maybe.
There are biological models with these properties already: there is a bat that lives more than 30 years while most of other bat species live 7-8. There are also examples where this is hormonally controlled-the queen female of naked mole rats colony lives about four decades while being fertile over all this time while the rest of the colony individuals live only 3-4 years (a 10X life expansion).

ya but thats when the 60 year mortgage becomes a thing, so we're back to square one 

[philipma1957]

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

I have. One of my neighbors is 84 and he told me he plans to live to 100-110. He lived an active life, does yoga every day, reads books about life extension, keeps his mind active. But then again some people are just luckier than others, and I don't even believe in free will.

Hell I am 67 in a month. I would love to do 100 or 105 in the shape I am today.

[JayJuanGee]

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

Hopefully, you are not too wedded to the theory of down before up and as long as you are prepared for up before down and/or up before up as well as your down before up preference, then there should not be any problem.

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

it is far more likely to go to 48k by jan 1 then your number of 31k

but if all etf action is not allowed til june or july we will drop in Jan.

i could see 48K before 31, but i still see 31 in the cards  

and if the ETF is not approve (which i think there is a 10-15% chance of that) that would be hell bearish i'd move my target down to 20K

$20k seems a bit much, but I could see testing $27k or $25k again, and it would have to be pretty bad for $25k to break, including that BTC does not need any ETF in order to have a 4-year cycle and also exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (Trace Mayer variation).

[...]

I like the Green Wallet, and thanks for letting us know they are working on Lightning.  Green allows RBF and Coin Control.
With the extremely high fees, the time is coming when I need to learn how to use Lightning.

Another vote for Green, I see. Good to know. Will keep an eye on it re. LN integration.

Yes, the on-chain fee size is becoming an issue for small payments. But then again, buying coffee on-chain is like using a chainsaw to cut butter. So yeah, 2nd-layer BTC networks are important, and will be more so in the future. I know (have been reading here and there, and also in WO) that LN has its problems, but I hope they get ironed out and we end up with a robust 2nd-layer network, with the uptime and reliability of on-chain transactions, that's going to be standardized and adopted worldwide as a payment method. Michael Saylor is actively promoting this IIRC, as is Jack Dorsey and other big players out there. And no, LTC won't cut it, as it is just a matter of time (i.e., network load) before it clogs up too. The solution must be by design, not by low utilization.

I use Phoenix wallet on my phone for lightning.
It is a custodial wallet and pretty straightforward to use to.
I tried lightning on Green wallet (I have a Blockstream Jade) but found it to be a bit cumbersome. It is still in the experimental stage so stands to reason I guess. I am sure it will be my goto wallet for everything btc related once they iron out the bugs.

I am pretty sure that Phoenix is considered self-custodial.  See these categories:  https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/lightning-wallets-comparison

I clicked on the twatter link above. (my bad)
Then “WHAT’S AHEAD FOR <redacted c word> IN 2024? across screen. <batslappening>
…F*****g idiots. Amirite Jay? 

You don't seem to be wrong.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I really would like to see a push to 48k+

Really hard to say... if we are going to be able to make $48k + by the end of the year.  Surely it is far from impossible, and sometimes BIG fireworks do end up happening around this time of the year.. even though the direction of such fireworks (if you know what I mean?) is not always clearly in one direction versus another.  There are ONLY two weeks left in the year (or do we say, a wee bit less than two weeks?)...

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

That's one of the tricky things about dee corns because just around half a day ago, it was looking as if the odds for sub $40k were getting quite high.. at least higher than 50/50.. and yet, did not end ujp happening in that particular run.. so who is going to say. .was that just a fake out and we are resuming UP, or is our current UP a fake out and we are returning DOWN?  I am not going to say, and I even hardly give too many shits since we still seem to be in the midst of a currently pretty large don't wake me up zone, if anyone had not realized it to be something in the ballpark of $35k to $55k... snooze, snooze, snooze.. if you know what I am trying to say?

Well today I did a send from Nicehash wallet via LN sent around 0.0015 fee was 0.00000014

I then used kraken to send  0.0015 to nicehash via LN fee was 0.00000014

So far testing show nicehash can send and receive via LN up to 1.5 ltc

I thought that we were talking about bitcoin in this here lovely thread, and lighting is a part of bitcoin, so how are you tying litecoin (LTC) into the discussion?  Are you suggesting that you can recharge your custodial wallet with LTC and then use it to transact in BTC?  or instead, since I see that nicehash is probably your mining group, so they are converting whatever your shitcoins are into bitcoin?

By the way, I had been considering various ways to charge a lightning wallet, and sure I prefer self-custodial rather than third-party custodial, but if we are in a pinch, then no problem using custodial and even using various shitcoins, but if we are not in a pinch then shouldn't we be trying to figure out various reasons to try to use bitcoin and bitcoin-related products rather than devolving into talking about shitcoins, but I see if you are talking about your mining pool then they allow you to mine shitcoins and maybe other ways of interchanging coins, so I suppose that you might be able to make some kind of connection to bitcoin, even though you did not really state the context very clearly.. 

I am well aware funds on nicehash are not in my custody

Also for that matter my kraken fees are at risk.

I am not sure if I understand this point because you are testing sending back and forth, and so you are suggesting that only fees are at risk?  How about the whole transaction is at risk if it does not go through?  or if it bounces back then you end up getting the refund and paying the fees?  I still don't quite get what you mean.
 

these accounts never hold a lot of value and I now have two different ways to do LN sends or receives.

if I want to shift to coinbase they do not do LN yet.

maybe next year all these are KYC accounts.

Why are you even going down this road?  Sure it is o.k. to learn that you can use some of you third-party custodial wallets to transact with lightning in various kinds of ways, but I doubt that any of us should be promoting the use of custodial services to transact, even though it could be an option in a pinch, but if we are not in a pinch, and we are trying to have some level of self-sovereignty, shouldn't we also be attempting to have some options that are self-custody rather than going through various kinds of third-party custodial systems?   

I am not even trying to proclaim that you have to do anything, but there are some systems that are more resilent than others.

Even with mining, it seems a bit problematic if so many of them are KYC mining, and so I know if they want to operate and if they are big then they are a target and they likely have to KYC, and so maybe that was part of the excitement about Ocean, even though they have some other kinds of problems that might be getting in the way of their ability to attract customers.. if they are censoring ordinals and inscriptions and other kinds of sneaky practices, then some miners might be reluctant to mine with them, and of course, there seems to be some attraction to larger pools in order to have greater possible rewards.. so nothing is exactly and completely straight-forward.

I am doing a show and tell thread on using LN but not on self custody LN
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478443.msg63346745#msg63346745
when using Nicehash or kraken which I used so far.

you dont have the keys so the coins can be taken away via hack or freeze.

Hopefully, you or someone else can do some of these show and tell with self-custodial types of solutions, and so many of us are probably hoping for lightning network to become more and more popular and easy to use, but we also want to figure out various easier ways to use wallets that are closer to self-custodial types of solutions.  Here is a post that I made in October 2022 in Fillippone's Lightning Network Observer thread when I was first weighing which lightning network wallets to move to after Blue wallet announced that it was discontinuing its lightning node for the use of others.

I know you do not like shit coin talk

But I churn the shitcoins for profit and rarely hold them.

The mines I run are :
Mostly BTC
Some LTC/DOGE
Some kawpow.

The shitcoins turn profit mining ⛏️

After years of working at this mine and growing I reach the point of excess gear all paid that works.

so I can shift at will to the most profitable one.

I Deliberately have far more watts used and gear running for BTC.

I get a lot of flexibility. I am a satoshi guy ie power to value.

Being able to maneuver from One algo to the other allows for more profit.

so kawpow is gpu and converts to btc automatically on nicehash.

you call that shitcoinery I call it a job that pays bills and allows me to get more btc.

and if kawpow slows i shut it off and run more scrypt miners.

and if both slow I turn them off and run all btc.

but I always run 65-75% btc in terms of power used.

This insane fee issue just made nicehash LN better for me.
and the small kraken account became more valuable as it has LN.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

Hopefully, you are not too wedded to the theory of down before up and as long as you are prepared for up before down and/or up before up as well as your down before up preference, then there should not be any problem.

i'm good either way, i'm not leveraged or anything, just some good old speculation with some cron trying to get more cron before the corn fest.

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

it is far more likely to go to 48k by jan 1 then your number of 31k

but if all etf action is not allowed til june or july we will drop in Jan.

i could see 48K before 31, but i still see 31 in the cards  

and if the ETF is not approve (which i think there is a 10-15% chance of that) that would be hell bearish i'd move my target down to 20K

$20k seems a bit much, but I could see testing $27k or $25k again, and it would have to be pretty bad for $25k to break, including that BTC does not need any ETF in order to have a 4-year cycle and also exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (Trace Mayer variation).

well the way i see it the ETF being approved is the reason we had a run up from 25K, its priced in now. So not getting approved means we need a massive correction, and a massive correction generally leads to some panic selling,  if we don't have the ETF to look forward to and insted we are faced with a system that is Clearly trying to stifle bitcoin...  in this scenario 20K seems very posibile imo. but, it seems more likely than ever before, that these ETFs will get a green light. and again because i believe this fact is already priced in, i'm betting in the short term we are moving DOWN and not up on this news, buy the rumor sell the news type deal, Its a solid trade imo, it sure is a lot easier to just buy now and hope that the etf approval means new ATH's, but we dont make money taking easy trades.

[JimboToronto]

I have yet to meet an 80 year old who wants to live another 24 years in pain and demented misery. Life extension < Life quality

Here's the queen mother Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon around the age of 90. She lived to be 101 years old drinking massive amounts every day.

Being stress-free is excellent for one's health.

One of my neighbors is 84 and he told me he plans to live to 100-110. He lived an active life, does yoga every day, reads books about life extension, keeps his mind active. But then again some people are just luckier than others, and I don't even believe in free will.

I try to ascribe to the Keith Richards/Chuck Berry system of longevity: sex and drugs and rock and roll all night and party every day. It beats exercise machines.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

My personal theory is that wall we all saw at 48k is, in this case, group ETF-think both suppressing the price and scooping cheap coins.  I imagine, the ETF cold callers are pitching to their customers that a sub 50k BTC is a bargain so better hop on now.  It seems to me, that it would be easier to pull in investor money while they think they are getting in before the train leaves the station, than trying to sell past performance when the asset is at all time highs.  We need the price to be where it is for the next 3-4 weeks, and then...

/EDIT to add missing word 'next'

[Negotiation]

What do you see the next? $44k in midnight???

I hope MACD says $44k hits soon...