Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.

It would not be first New Year's this happens.

All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..

I guess the OG’s are prepared…

But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?

No if you are you and have lots of coins you many not want more.

If you are me and have some coins and some cash you may have a purchase or series of purchases set up at :

39k
36k
33k   

[AirtelBuzz]

Spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants Flood SEC With Filing Updates Before Deadline

Major asset managers, including blackrock, Vaneck, Valkyrie, Bitwise, Invesco/Galaxy, Fidelity, Wisdomtree, and Ark Investments and 21shares in a joint filing, submitted their updated documents to the securities regulator on Friday afternoon.




>>> https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1741150194521997800?t=ApP6mJch2INUl3oDwXHmTA&s=19


By the way 😉

Happy new year in advance Wall Observer🥱

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.

It would not be first New Year's this happens.

All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..

I guess the OG’s are prepared…

But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?

Buying too... or spend and replace.

Sometimes there could be some cases in which 6-7 years could be enough to be prepared.. looking at your mid-2017 forum registration date (el dude), yet it seems that I meet so many forum members who have not really been able to prepare in that amount of time, including that maybe they spent some time in shitcoins or trading bitcoin, so they may well did not end up stacking very many sats, whether that would have been in pre-$3k 2017 or even during the 2018, 2019 and 2020 lows that we might say that we spent a decently large amount of time between $6k and $10k.. and yeah some periods of even greater bargains down to the lower $3k, but those were not very common times to be able to get coins below $4,500, even in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

In traditional investment circles, it can take 30-40 years or even longer to get to entry-level fuck you status, and surely a lot of folks do not even get there because their value is sucked up into the depreciating currencies, so whatever they invest into does not end up going up enough in order to both make up for the debasement of the currency, but also to make up for the fact that they might not have been investing / saving as much as they should have been.  So even investing 10% per year takes 10 years to get to 1 year of salary invested, and sure, if anyone is able to do 30%, then the time line to invest one year's salary is less than 3 years... but many folks are not able to be that 30%-ish level of aggressiveness in their savings/investments.

Anyhow?  what's my point?  

I think that I would not consider it to be unusual for guys still to need a couple of cycles to really have enough BTC, and so there are likely enough guys who are in the one to two cycles arena who are still buying BTC, even if that might still be bringing up their average cost per BTC.

One of the ways around the need to continue to stack would be for guys who were able to lump sum in, and I would not assume that to have had been the case for someone unless he might have mentioned something like that, or maybe implied it by some of his behaviors in which he might have been stocking / stacking more BIGGEDly than a typical newbie... which surely is not that unusual because we do have people at various points of their life coming to BTC, and in these future times, many of them might be coming through ETFs, so surely it could take a while for many of them to recognize/appreciate some of the value and powers of holding your own BTC.. .. not that the holder of BTC always recognizes that value either, if he might be holding a lot on exchanges or even some guys might sell some of their BTC so that they can get BTC price exposure through their "tax privileged funds" namely buying into the spot BTFs which could take a while to figure out as being an inferior product (as compared to actually holding a decent amount of actual BTC).  

hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.

It would not be first New Year's this happens.

All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..

I guess the OG’s are prepared…

But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?

fees may go stupid high if theres a stampede so pre position any assets you think may want fast access to. course thats the not yer keys etc so i put enough out to be useful if all goes well, but not enough to get rekt if its "hacked" or whatever. just mighty annoyed.

Kind of feeling more and more like an attack - especially how long it is being sustained.. and especially on poor people and people who might be new and skiddish about transacting directly on bitcoin... but yeah, hard to point to the exact evidence of such suspected attack .. beyond a kind of feeling.. .

which doesn't hurt as much the holders with a lot of coins or even rich people who may well buy their BTC in higher quantities and be more than willing to pay the transaction fees to move around their coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Spend and replace...or just spend/rake (as per various raking schemes).
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail  

What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad.

[JayJuanGee]

quite limp if you ask me

Well... it's only 100k  

It is kind of funny how guys can have such low aspirations. .it almost reminds me of all the things that were being promised in 2014, 2015 and 2016 about reaching $1k...

yeah, of course, there is a little bit of a difference because we have not yet reached $100k, even though by the time 2014, 2015 and 2016 came we had already reached $1k in 2013... so anyhow, $100k is starting to seems like one of those price points in which we may well end up going zooming right past it, even if we might have some ups and downs around that point.. .. and. I am not going to proclaim what to do or how to handle the matter - beyond my own pretty much sticking with my own system, which means I am likely not going to be doing anything great around $100k.. even though I might have some higher price points that I am might consider the possibility of sharing higher than my "regular amounts".. can you imagine of any of us who have less than $1k cost per BC, if the BTC price might have some days in which it goes up 30x the amount that we have invested.. just in a day... it seems possible, and those kinds of price explosions can happen in either direction, so maybe shaving off a wee bit would not hurt.. and don't get me wrong, I understand that there are other active members in this thread who have average costs per BTC in the low 3 digits or maybe even in the 2 digits. so shaving off a few sats or even a few BTC might not even make any kind of a large dent in the stash size (or the relative value of the stash).

the weekly looks like a bull flag forming into the ETF date.

but maybe ... just maybe....

It does kind of seem too good to be true.

I am not counting my chickens yet.. but I do have incubators prepared, just in case.

Thoughts about ETF effect on btc price in initial period:

On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.

I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.

Personally, I sense that: You are giving the powers that be a lot of power.. and I am not even saying that you are going to be wrong.. but I hate to grant them that much benefit of the doubt in regards to their abilities to control and/or manipulate (or even to get the directional results that they want, once they play their dumbass black swan or whatever it might be.. do you remember that various bank explosions earlier in the year, and BTC prices went up and not down.. I think that they would have preferred bitcoin to correct during that period, rather than having the Streisand effect), and even once things happen, there will be plenty of the powers that be who will likely be claiming that they caused it (or directed it).. or blah blah blah.. baloney..

[edited out]

it always impresses me how quickly the sentiment changes from bullishness to doom and vise versa... even in the WO
(edit: referring to how easy it is for the TPTB to introduce a sentiment)

But fuck sentiment.  It does not always work to be fucking around with sentiment, even if they are able to affect it.

You think king daddy gives very many fucks about sentiment?

#asking for a friend, since that came out a bit hostile.

[edited out]

Following the phrase "buy with the rumour and sell the news" we can also expect a little pump after the ETF aproval and a big dump for a few months when some big players rebuy and some other buys a offert price and then we can expect a big bull run, in the mid of 2024 with also the halving happening.

For me the market has already discounted the ETF thing.

That is dumb.  That is to say that if you were to be asserting the efficient-market hypothesis as if it were to apply to a variety of things including: 1) halvening is priced in, 2) hashpower leads BTC price, and/or 3) ETF is priced in (your actual assertion).. .

 

should I roll my eyes or laugh my ass off?

 


 

if I look at my December 2021 prediction, I can attempt to use those numbers and timeline as a kind of guidance for what I had then considered to be possible at that point in that cycle, even though we are currently in a different part of our current cycle.. including our momentum is in a different kind of a place.. so  $1 million by 2024.. gosh?  maybe I would put it at 1%-ish. or maybe less than 2%. but I am not going to put that kind of number within a year at zero..

I actually looked at that Dec 2021 link and among other things it says: "13-17.5K-overly bearish-about 2% odds"
Yet, it happened in 2022 despite the long odds.

The upside post was made in December 2021 and the downside post was made on May 19. 2022. .and I was kind of regretting that May 2016 post within days after posting it.. but anyhow, my regret does not mean shit because the mere fact that lower odd type events end up happening, and even maybe happening within a few weeks of the post, does  not mean that the odds assignment was flawed at the time it was made.

Remember I was trying to bet you in regards to some of the upside scenarios, but you would not bet on the odds that you gave to it, even though I likely would be willing to bet on the odds that I give, even if I end up being wrong.. .. and yeah of course, it becomes easier to bet if someone has seemingly extreme views.

I am not claiming to be any kind of nostradamus, but I will likely continue to revise my odds charts from time to time.  I felt that it was kind of innovative for me to attempt to describe the whole spectrum so that the numbers add up to 100% and then also to have some separate aspects that attempt to put timelines for the periods that I was placing the odds, and frequently, i was striving to get some members, or maybe any member to describe some competing odd assignments.. especially if he might be willing to do it in a kind of detailed way like me which might be following my framework or some kind of a similar framework.  Did not get too many folks to really engage on that level, and sure it is easy to be all Monday morning quarter-backing it.

We could do it again at some time.. but of course we have to go with current conditions, and surely sometimes we are in a better place than others to assign both up and down, and even now, we might be in a decently good position to describe 2024 or even various random places between here and 2024

...or even including 2025, since that would be part of the regular cycle, even though I have already heard you, Biodom, expecting that this cycle is going to peak in the first half of 2025.. which also could be a bettable proposition depending on how you might feel about it.. I did not see you stating it in absolute terms, so I did not really get too worked up about it, so far.

I am just saying that predictions are a hard business, even when measured in probabilities.

Well you better be willing to stand behind it when you start to make absolute proclamations, because the fact that you would not previously stand behind your earlier absolute proclamations is because you did not really believe what you were saying.

I think that it should be easier to stand behind probabilistic predictions as compared to absolutes.. but sure it depends on the absolute and if anyone is wanting to take the other side of the bet.. because if you assert absolutes that are totally reasonable, then it is less likely that anyone is going to challenge your assertion.

We all want btc to be at $1 mil and above and it SHOULD be, but nobody really knows when it would get there in "our" version of the multiverse.

Well, next year seems to be a bit much, but for the cycle, it does not seem as far out there, and if we are going to add another cycle, we might well be getting into much higher odds, even in the 30% and maybe even 40% territory if we take it out to the end of 2029.. I am not sure if I would be willing to go as high as 40%.. but 30% seems like something that might be currently within the 2029 kind of a timeline. .that would be 1.5 cycles.. to the extent that cycles continue to matter.

From a tactical perspective, 20X spike in 2017 happened when almost nobody (except Tim Draper, haha) predicted it.
I can only wish that US would stop "fighting" it and instead, allow it to fully flourish unencumbered and this remains my wish.

I wonder how much the US fighting it matters very much.  Yeah, sure it seems like it does matter, but how you going to stop them from fighting it?  We just have difficulties knowing how the fight progresses and the extent to which damage is contained.. but we are in a kind of war zone, even if it might not completely feel like that, and the war zone has existed since you and I have been in bitcoin, but it has been taken to different places, different levels and coming to consciousness of different people in terms of what kinds of arms they want to try to use to battle against it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

I've seen enough.  The market obviously wants to end the year at $42069 and at this point I don't even think people should fight it.  Just let it happen.  Maybe Elon is having some fun or the overall market is just a bunch of wise guys.  Pretty crazy that it could be manipulated seemingly so easily to hit a price target for a joke, but here we are.  Makes you wonder what will happen when those big money folks want to manipulate the price to the moon...  It will be hang on tight time for sure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.

It would not be first New Year's this happens.

All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..

I guess the OG’s are prepared…

But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?

No if you are you and have lots of coins you many not want more.

If you are me and have some coins and some cash you may have a purchase or series of purchases set up at :
39k
36k
33k    

I cannot help but to attempt to bust your balls in this regard... and you probably know where I am going in terms of there are some aspects in which you Philip are not a typical kind of OG, because you surely should be in a kind of maintenance stage rather than an accumulation stage, yet at the same time, the kinds of behaviors of selling on the way up and buying on the way down is a maintenance stage kind of activity, which surely any of us could attempt to bias the level to which we might sell on the way up and buy on the way down so that we might be net accumulating or net liquidating... so I suppose levels of aggressiveness or conservative, and so if 90% of our stash is sitting on the sidelines, then that still might be considered maintenance, even if we might consider ourselves as bias in one direction or another and maybe we blow with the wind in regards to where our bias is depending, partly on BTC price momentum.. and in this regard, I may well be defending you, even though that was not my original intent..   .. oh well it is Christmas and almost new years, so why go into some of that.

Spend and replace...or just spend/rake (as per various raking schemes).
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail  

Actually, you are correct Biodom that there seems to be some kind of glitch in the Matrix in terms of part of the Google spreadsheet that fillippone had posted.   Just for clarification, if you go to the spreadsheet by clicking on the image in the above linked post, then you can copy the spreadsheet into a new document in order to put your data into it.  The top portion of the spreadsheet does not have the formulas in there (so those numbers were based on a different input from some earlier formulas).  However, if you go to the lower table in that same spreadsheet, and you can see that the lower table has all of the same information as the upper table (besides the three reinvestment sections), but it also has the proper formulas, so if you change the reinvestment percentage (cell I48) from 80% to 0% then that would cause the table to have an assumption that you are not trying to reinvest any of the BTC that you withdrew, and then you will get the proper results in column A (cell A59) which would end up being 8 BTC (as you mentioned should have had been the results if the formulas had been in the upper table), and so then the subsequent cells of each of the rows of column A have the BTC balance at each of the stages after the 20% withdrawals at each of stages in which BTC prices go up 50% the amount of the withdrawal is fairly aggressive to be 20% each time, starting at $130k.  

**Note that once you copy the spreadsheet, you can change any of the portions that have the green florescent cells in order to see the results for your own personal input, and the bottom table seems to have all of the correct formulas but the top table does not have the formulas correctly, including at least column A.

What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad.

It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail  

Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.

Edited to clarify some of my description of the error in the spreadsheet that Biodom had identified

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail  

Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.

I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.

#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.

So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail  

Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.

I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.

#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.

So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.

I am working at the mine 2 days a week. Will likely  keep doing it for years past 70.

[Biodom]

FYI (not that I endorse ANY of those entities):

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-list-of-every-wall-street-giant-seeking-to-launch-a-bitcoin-etf

Lower fees result in higher appreciation, presumably.

Invesco has a 0.59% yearly fee, but this fee will be dropped for the first 6mo until the fund reaches $5bil. So, first 5bil no fee, but not longer than 6mo.
Fidelity has a 0.39% yearly fee (which favorably compares with 2%-the current GBTC yearly fee). You lose 20% vs bitcoin every decade of holding GBTC (without taking the discount to NAV into consideration)
Valkyrie, 21shares and Ark Invest-0.8% yearly fee.
Others (including Blackrock)-undisclosed fee (or I did not find it). Could be low, though.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-vaneck-among-asset-managers-that-submitted-updated-filings-spot-2023-12-30/

[JayJuanGee]

It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail  

Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.

I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.

I personally had been using a variation of that chart since about mid-to-late 2015, and I was somewhat inspired by the SSS thread,

See: 

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

but also that I wanted to use the sales as a form of insurance for downside BTC price possibilities, and it seems that I frequently explained to you that in 2015, I felt that I had gotten to a status of being overinvested into BTC because I ended up reaching close to 13.5% invested into bitcoin, rather than my self-authorized amount that would have (or should have) had been 10%.

So even though I began to employ a kind of strategy of selling around 10% for every doubling of the BTC price, I never really depleted my status of being overinvested into bitcoin because due to BTC's price appreciation and inspite of my continuing to sell on the way up starting from $250, the amount of my allocation to bitcoin went from 13.5% in late 2015 to nearly 80% in late 2017 and then corrected back down to its lows of 45% at various points of 2018 and even the correction of 2020 did not bring my holdings below having around a 55%-ish allocation into bitcoin.. and so even with such practices, I believe that I had some highs that were in the 90%-ish arena, and then maybe currently I am around 75%-ish.. so I continue to be quite overallocated in terms of my original goal of 10%, but then I think that i also could adjust my allocation to 25%, but that still does not cause my 75% to come down unless I sell on the way up, which largely I continued to be quite conservative in my own practices, and I am doubting if I am ever going to really resolve the matter, because I have come to a newer philosophy about letting your winners ride.. even though there is still a kind of underlying justification to be able to sell whenever I want in order to keep the bitcoin allocation into some kind of control.. because I am thinking that the correction in 2022 when we were at our lowest of around $15,479 in 2022, I probably still was not probably not less than 65% allocated in bitcoin as compared with my other quasi-liquid assets in my investment portfolio..

As far as your 4 suggested points:

point 1) I think it helps to bring balance in regards to having a whole bunch of extra cash and even questions of whether it will be needed for anything or not.. and becomes kind of optional.  Do I care that the cash is not working?  Not really.  I think in the beginning few years, I was sometimes more bothered by the cash not working, but then I mostly got over that since I feel that I have continued to have too much bitcoin... I know.. I know.. I know. .You don't believe such a thing is possible..and I already tried to cover this from you from my perspective many times, and it just does not seem to sink in for you...   Strange that.

point 2) I don't know.  Sure, there might be some justifications to be more aggressive in terms of the raking amounts based on potential drying up of various other fixed income sources not keeping up with inflation, yet I get the sense that a kind of retirement situation is better covered by my time based system that is in the bitmover thread (website) rather than the price-based raking method.. which I personally had considered to be more of a BTC maintenance technique... oh and by the way, rptiela had frequently said in his SSS thread (to the extent that he was active or said anything) that once you rake whatever amount you had decided you were going to rake, then you should not be reinvesting it, and so my problem of reinvesting some aspects of it had caused my application of the rake to be somewhat different from what rptiela was recommending.

point 3) So far, since 2015, I had not applied my own tailored approach in that kind of BIG swings kind of way, but I can see how a person might set fairly larger upward swing targets and then just to really get some decent bang for the buck if the amounts are hit... which is probably more what rptiela was doing/intending in his thread and my way of bastardizing it moves a bit away from that, but my table (with the formulas that fillippone put in the Google Spreadsheet version) allows guys to set their parameters however they like including their choice to set attempts at rebuying to 0%, if that is what they so choose. 

Of course, even with the limited amounts that I feel that I had been selling, I had still been benefiting from the compounding effects of letting most of my profits ride.  Consider that if I were to cash out 50% every time the BTC price doubled, then I would be taking out all of the profits and there would be none at all of a compounding effect of the profits that roll over into the next period.. so even if you think about $250 to , there are more than 7 doubling periods.. so even if most of the profits were not taken out what was left in the fund compounded.. so there is a lot of extra reserve capital that could have had been taken out as profits that is just rolling over and over and over.

1) $250 to $500

2) $500 to $1,000

3) $1,000 to $2,000

4) $2,000 to $4,000

5) $4,000 to $8,000

6) $8,000 to $16,000

7) $16,000 to $32,000

8 ) $32,000 to $64,000

Point 4   In my system there is no selling of any large chunk, even though like I mentioned above, there is a lot of possibility to take out a decently large chunk and still just to be dealing with some fraction of the profits rather than really digging into principle (meaning the amount that was initially invested).

#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.

Me too... hahahaha I am thinking about getting a dig in, regarding your whimpy style.. but I am going to hold back for now.. it is not like I have to do it, even if I am tempted.

#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.

You are probably still pretty young.. I mean if you are getting into your 50s and 60s, then you are getting closer to actual retirement age, and gosh, maybe you and Phillipma1957 share the same ideation.. but I really am not sure if that is a place that a guy should want to be into his 60s.. even if there might be some fun in it.. yet at the same time, there are various kinds of work that might not really feel that much like work.

I really cannot answer for you, and surely there are people who are really rich, but they are working for power and status reasons rather than any need to actually work... At this time, if we might say that anyone with more than around $60 to $80 million territory is getting into the filthy rich category, even though I am pretty sure that I was considering $40 million as the beginning of filthy rich status prior to the March 2020 fiascos... but when people get into those kinds of levels of rich, they also might just be working but still doing the kinds of work that they like and they are not really having to show up if they don't want to.. even though someone like Elon Musk seems like a psycho.. but there are a lot of folks that are way below his level that still work and have in the supra $60 million status.

Let me just assert that $60 million would be a passive income of about $200k per month (which would be $2.4 million per year).. if we use 4% as our measure of a sustainable withdrawal rate. .. but if you have yachts, planes and even mansions, they can be a bit expensive to maintain.

#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.

Maybe I am not very clear about what you mean here, since if you and I have been into bitcoin a similar amount of time, we both went through 2015, so we both have had the opportunity for more than 7 doublings, just at today's price... so just another doubling or two?  that is what you are saying that you want?  But then would you be pulling out large chunks or just a reasonable chunk?.. so if we have a 2x from the previous ATH, or from where are you measuring 2x?  The most logical point is to measure 2x from the current price, but that barely brings us out of no man's zone which still seems like anything under $100k is still a kind of bat country... so the suggestion that I had in the chart of $130k was tailored for some things that TrueMyth was saying. .but maybe that is a comfortable area for you too. .it is right around 2x of the previous ATH... just shy of it.. but still might be more reasonable than to expect BTC prices that do not end up being reached, if you are considering withdrawing meaningful chunks, whether that might be 15% to 25% or some other amount in that kind of a territory. .which surely would be a lot for me to even contemplate anything in that ballpark, but I am not going to completely say "no" to those kinds of possibilities... because I doubt that I would be hurt either way.. but I might be a bit more inclined to wait out a bit of a higher price, but I get so nervous about large strokes that I would just rather cash out 3% to 5% every 30% to 40% up rather than putting a lot of stress on one price point. and maybe that is part of the reason that I roll a wee bit different than you in terms of my own personal situation - whether it is psychology or other factors that might just be tied up in the way I have always done things that likely is a bit different from your seeming ways.

#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.

Well there are a couple of factors.  1st is how fast we were to get there.  If we go shooting up from here to $500 to $1 million in 2024, like Samson Mow is suggesting, that just does not seem sustainable, which surely could even cause someone like me to be willing to take a BIGGER plunge than my usual somewhat "whimpy" incrementalism practices... but if it takes until late 2025 to get those kinds of numbers, I might be lulled once again into not recognizing the top when it ends up happening.. so then I might be less inspired to cash out BIG chunks.. but at the same time, even small parts of either of our portfolios.. yours at 20-ish BTC and mine at somewhat over 0.63BTC is going to add up to very sizeable amounts of money even if we just cash out some small amounts of our holdings in the $500 to $1million arena.

The other ambiguity is regarding what do you consider BIG Chunks?   are you talking more than 25% of your holdings or even in the 30% to 40% range?  Surely neither of us would be considering 50% or more in any one scoop?  It does not seem to be necessary to go that BIG, unless we have some real way to learn how to spend that kind of outrageous money that is somewhat already out of the leagues of what either one of us are accustomed to dealing with... so it might be a bit uncomfortable to deal with that amount of money and trying to figure out where to put it or how to hold it..

So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.

Well, we would still have to have some kind of idea about how we might want to spend it, and if there are any ways that we can minimize the tax implications.. because sometimes if we are considering spending money that we had never had our whole life, then even the tax ramifications might also be higher than anything that we might have ever dealt with, too.. but for example, I know that you had previously considered some kinds of properties, and maybe that could be something, but even properties can end up being a lot of work... even if it is a matter of considering whether to keep on the same staff, or hiring a new staff.. if there was a kind of mansion situation, for example.  I have also been thinking about these kinds of things over the last few years, and even in 2021, there were several ways that I was spending extra money, but it still probably was not enough., ..especially if we are talking about this time likely causing the 200-week moving average to be moving up quite a bit, which still is the measurement that I am looking at in regards to how assured I might feel about how much preparations that I might have to make in terms of how far dips might go.. and I have some difficult times considering that 35% below the 200-week moving average is going to be any kind of reasonable future expectation, even though I do believe it can happen and my time based sustainable withdrawal with bitmover website does attempt to deal with (and provide plans) regarding those levels of future dips... and they are still way the fuck higher than my current contemplations of any kind of a budget .. which means even the most outrageous dips still are likely going to allow spending that are higher than my current expectations of any budget.. so I guess I am just agreeing about some needs for imagination regarding how to manage the future budget ramifications of the supra 0.63 BTC.... and you with your 20-ish.   

[edited out]
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.

I am working at the mine 2 days a week. Will likely  keep doing it for years past 70.

If true, that seems fairly reasonable....so maybe I should not be bashing on you so much... but I am not going to take anything back.. not just yet.  There is a certain latitude in which we all have regarding making our own decisions about things, and surely some guys might bash us (or you) for some of these kind of choices.. so it can be good to stand your ground.. within reason.. but we also know that there can be some ease that goes into something that you are already used to doing that might not really cause it to feel like it is work that is draining upon us, and there can be some values with sense of purpose in regards to any kinds of things that we choose to do.