kids of millenials...generation alpha:
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/01/gen-alpha-charactertistics-technology-school-climate1. Likely to be alive in the 22nd century.
2. Will come into best spending years in 2040-2050.
3. Online generation or AI generation?
They would be ready to use bitcoin, but would need to mostly inherit it from boomers and millennials as the issuance would be very small by 2040-2052 (~0.195 btc/block in 2040-0.0244 btc/block by 2052).
maybe @philipma1957 is right and we would have some kind of crisis after we plunge below 0.5btc/block.
Even if NO increase in difficulty, which is unrealistic, just subsidy decrease would mean a
minimal btc price of 683K by 2036, which is doable, of course.
However, difficulty rose 2.967X in the last two years, which is approximately 72.4% annually.
Assuming this continues in 2024-2036 period, difficulty would increase 689X.
Therefore, bitcoin price would have to be 689X16(subsidy reduction between now and 2036)X42700=$470724800 (~$470 mil) per btc, which seems, obviously, too high (market cap of ~$10^16 or 10000 trillions). Therefore, even if the world's GDP would be 100 tril by 2036 and ALL assets would be 1000 trillion (about double to 2.5X from now), it's does not seem possible, unless the world would have a leap to a much higher productivity and ALL assets would be 10000 trillion (AI, asteroids, etc).
If mining difficulty rise would drop in half in 2024-2036 period to 36.2%/year, then difficulty would only increase 40.75X, so the formula would be 40.75X16X42700=$27840400 (~$28 mil/btc) by 2036, which is 584X10^12 or 584 trillions in the market cap, which would be about half of world's presumed wealth by that year (~$1000 trillion). This is possible.
TL;DR After 2036-a black hole (no visibility)...too small issuance, presumably, but maybe fees would compensate, we shall see how it plays out.
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