Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Suzume]

Asset managers that submitted timely filings could launch spot #Bitcoin    ETFs as early as January 10, the 🇺🇸 SEC's decision date for Ark/21Shares ETF.

SEC could notify issuers by Tuesday or Wednesday for approval, per Reuters


Source

Fuck New Year 2024 bring more new new happyness it's going to be a crazy new year.. Another day of new year guys..


2023 close: $42,258. Up +156% from $16,528 in 2022. Ready for ETFs and halving in 2024!.. This new year is going to crazy...


jamie dimon shoving as much bitcoin as he can up his butt before the ETF is approved.




Happy BTCBitcoin 2024.. HODL it's $43k

[Biodom]

So even though I began to employ a kind of strategy of selling around 10% for every doubling of the BTC price, I never really depleted my status of being overinvested into bitcoin because due to BTC's price appreciation and inspite of my continuing to sell on the way up starting from $250, the amount of my allocation to bitcoin went from 13.5% in late 2015 to nearly 80% in late 2017 and then corrected back down to its lows of 45% at various points of 2018 and even the correction of 2020 did not bring my holdings below having around a 55%-ish allocation into bitcoin.. and so even with such practices, I believe that I had some highs that were in the 90%-ish arena, and then maybe currently I am around 75%-ish.. so I continue to be quite overallocated in terms of my original goal of 10%, but then I think that i also could adjust my allocation to 25%, but that still does not cause my 75% to come down unless I sell on the way up, which largely I continued to be quite conservative in my own practices, and I am doubting if I am ever going to really resolve the matter, because I have come to a newer philosophy about letting your winners ride.. even though there is still a kind of underlying justification to be able to sell whenever I want in order to keep the bitcoin allocation into some kind of control.. because I am thinking that the correction in 2022 when we were at our lowest of around $15,479 in 2022, I probably still was not probably not less than 65% allocated in bitcoin as compared with my other quasi-liquid assets in my investment portfolio..

That's a huge overallocation

I am about 23% invested in bitcoin (of my original 5%, and after 20% liquidation in 2021) and this rate above 20% still bothers me sometimes. But I think I am not that overinvested.

There are good opportunities outside crypto ecosystem too (I think even bonds were interesting last year)

I am personally starting to build a small stash of uranium etf, thinking about nuclear energy expansion, and it has been performing quite well.

But BTC still has a better thesis than most assets and I think it will surprise everyone again with new ATHs. I will try to liquidate using this new tool we developed, and I will try to understand this rake strategy too which I didn't read yet.

My policy (since 2001-2002 crash) is to never invest more than 20% in any one item (in reality, it is usually no more than 5% and at most 10%), BUT once I invest, I don't re-jig the portfolio to "balance" it. In case of btc, it has grown significantly in %% (EDIT3: I just calculated it to be 68.7% at this moment). I invested in many winning stocks before: AAPL and TSLA are just two examples [EDIT: forgot to say that I recently found a brokerage slip that said that I also invested in AMZN in Jan 2002 at some ridiculously low price, only to sell it few months later at 2X, lol], but I had a habit of selling them after, say, 10X (for AAPL; or lower-for AMZN) of my money and/or too much portfolio %%, missing on another 10X as a result. Bitcoin is the first asset where I don't do "balancing" in principle.

Consider me reckless, but since I have work cash flow, future pension and SSec lined up plus IRAs, why not? Nobody got really rich by following the "balanced" portfolio. On the other hand, if you already "made it" to, say, 5-10X of @JJG  FU status, then I see some benefit in balancing things out. BTW, Warren Buffet is ridiculously overweight in just a few stocks at 93 (I believe that just three stocks, with one being AAPL, are more than 50% of his entire equity portfolio). Is he chasing the performance or just being competitive?

EDIT2: Warren Buffet taught Bill Gates diversification, so now Bill is worth 120 bil, but he had at some point about 33% of MSFT stock (most of which he sold to 'deversify'). 33% would have made him almost a first trillionaire (922bil), with 7bil 376mil yearly dividend. I think he could have "survived" on that divvy alone (with no stock sales needed). The "funny part" is that WB probably learned something from that since he did the exact opposite and vastly increased his portfolio concentration (maybe after observing what "happened" to Bill Gates). In actuality, Gates is probably happy with what he's got, regardless of what could have been.

[JayJuanGee]

Even if NO increase in difficulty, which is unrealistic, just subsidy decrease would mean a minimal btc price of 683K by 2036, which is doable, of course.

I will admit that I have adjusted my BTC bottom in fairly conservative ways, and in accordance to my entry-level fuck you status chart, my bottom for 2036 would range anywhere between $345k and $420k, and so I have to go with my numbers if talking about bottoms, especially since projecting based on mining mumbo jumbo does not really fit into considerations of something that needs to be accounted.. .. it will work itself out. one way or another and we likely just stay on some kind of an ongoing upward trajectory, and if we need to tweak it a bit here and there (such as every 6 months) to verify that we are still within the trajectory, and the trajectory is accounting for actual world happenings (such as where the BTC price is - especially the 200-week moving average), then yeah the real world facts may end up changing the trajectory.. .. including that mining likely mostly follows price rather than the other way around.

However, difficulty rose 2.967X in the last two years, which is approximately 72.4% annually.
Assuming this continues in 2024-2036 period, difficulty would increase 689X.
Therefore, bitcoin price would have to be 689X16(subsidy reduction between now and 2036)X42700=$470724800 (~$470 mil) per btc, which seems, obviously, too high (market cap of ~$10^16 or 10000 trillions). Therefore, even if the world's GDP would be 100 tril by 2036 and ALL assets would be 1000 trillion (about double to 2.5X from now), it's does not seem possible, unless the world would have a leap to a much higher productivity and ALL assets would be 10000 trillion (AI, asteroids, etc).

If mining difficulty rise would drop in half in 2024-2036 period to 36.2%/year, then difficulty would only increase 40.75X, so the formula would be 40.75X16X42700=$27840400 (~$28 mil/btc) by 2036, which is 584X10^12 or 584 trillions in the market cap, which would be about half of world's presumed wealth by that year (~$1000 trillion). This is possible.

TL;DR After 2036-a black hole (no visibility)...too small issuance, presumably, but maybe fees would compensate, we shall see how it plays out.

It reads like a lot of gobble-dee-gook (noise) to me.

[edited out]

My policy (since 2001-2002 crash) is to never invest more than 20% in any one item (in reality, it is usually no more than 5% and at most 10%), BUT once I invest, I don't re-jig the portfolio to "balance" it. In case of btc, it has grown significantly in %%. I invested in many winning stocks before: AAPL and TSLA are just two examples, but I had a habit of selling them after, say, 10X of my money and/or too much portfolio %%, missing on another 10X as a result. Bitcoin is the first asset where I don't do "balancing" in principle.

Yeah, but how do you get to your initial allocation, and let's just presume that it would have had been 10% for bitcoin, even though I get the sense that you might have initially allocated lower than that... probably closer to 5%.. but let's just imagine that you decided you were going to allocate 10%?  how would you get there? How do you lump sum in?

For me, I did not even know what my target was for nearly a year, because I initially assigned myself a 6 month amount (a dollar amount), which happened to be an amount that I knew that I would have available within the next 6 months, and the same thing happened after I had gone through the first 6 months in order to assign myself a similar amount for the next 6 months.  So for me, I had not even realized that I had reached right around 10% until after I had been investing for a year.. so then at that point, I had started to consider that I had enough BTC... but still I let circumstances around me to continue to buy since the BTC price was pretty much flat (and even had gone down a bit more between November/December 2014 when I had made the determination that I had enough while being around 10%-ish..

Personally, I think that I was already going through some significant juggling around of my finances around that period, so I was in a kind of unusual place in terms of having cash available that I could assign towards buying BTC during 2014.. and during more typical times, I think that it would have probably taken me a couple of years to get to 10% - and part of my then issue was by 2013, I had already been investing for around 20 years, so getting to 10% as quickly as a year was actually a kind of lucky coincidence... but I could see some circumstances in which I could have had forced the 10% to happen in a year or less, if I had realized that was going to be my goal at the end of 2013 - even though I had not realized it until the end of 2014.

Consider me reckless, but since I have work cash flow, future pension and SSec lined up plus IRAs, why not?

O.k. that was pretty similar to me in regards to having everything else in order in terms of the justification to mostly just let things ride, once they are in place... even though you and I have already figured out that I do have different practices from you in terms of mostly my incrementalism.. as compared with your seeming preference for chunckenism.

Nobody got really rich by following the "balanced" portfolio. On the other hand, if you already "made it", I see some benefit in balancing things out.

A difference between growing and preserving, and I personally had always been conservative prior to bitcoin, so maybe I cannot even see myself investing into bitcoin prior to my having had already built up a pretty decent investment portfolio through years and years and years of conservativism.. and largely around 5.5% average annual returns, even though some years performed better than others.

BTW, Warren Buffet is ridiculously overweight in just a few stocks at 93 (I believe just three stocks, with one being AAPL, are more than 50% of his entire equity portfolio). Is he chasing the performance or just being competitive?

I am not really disagreeing with you on the concentration point, especially once bitcoin was discovered/invented.. I can see how any newbie could start out with just BTC and cash and then ONLY diversify after a few years of building his holdings..   diversification is not needed in the beginning of investing, but it does become more necessary once a person has built up his investment portfolio, perhaps when it starts to get anywhere between 25% to 2x of annual income, then maybe diversification starts to become necessary...

And in regards to Buffet's diversification, isn't Berkshire already diversified within itself? or are you referring to something else?

[philipma1957]

Happy New Year guys!

I predict 2024 will be a very prosperous one for us. 2025 will be better but let’s not wish this year away.

Hope you all have a great 2024.

2024 will bring us a new ATH which works for me.

Happy new years.

[WatChe]

Happy new year to the WO gang from my secret location.

You said you are in Alps. Is it Sestriere?

I cannot confirm, nor deny it. My Opsec is already too compromised!

No worries. Just enjoy this adventure and stay safe.


Just a day at local wedding ceremony. Sharing some traditional and continental dishes in the dinner menu. Anyone has idea about these one's?

   
Photo credit: WatChe

[philipma1957]

Jan 1 2023 = 16.6k

Jan 1 2024 = 43.4k

Jan 1 2025 = ? 


my guess is  $113,467.47

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

BTW, Warren Buffet is ridiculously overweight in just a few stocks at 93 (I believe just three stocks, with one being AAPL, are more than 50% of his entire equity portfolio). Is he chasing the performance or just being competitive?

I am not really disagreeing with you on the concentration point, especially once bitcoin was discovered/invented.. I can see how any newbie could start out with just BTC and cash and then ONLY diversify after a few years of building his holdings..   diversification is not needed in the beginning of investing, but it does become more necessary once a person has built up his investment portfolio, perhaps when it starts to get anywhere between 25% to 2x of annual income, then maybe diversification starts to become necessary...

And in regards to Buffet's diversification, isn't Berkshire already diversified within itself? or are you referring to something else?

They (Berkshire) are NOT diversified, really...see the link (more than 50% of equity in one stock-AAPL).
https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

That's the 'crazy' thing about it. 50% of ALL equity portfolio in ONE stock (AAPL).

WB is being jelly of Michael Saylor?

BTW, see my edit3-currently 68.7% in btc (vs yours 75%)-we are truly moving in parallel, or so it seems: almost the same year to start, roughly the same current btc %.
There maybe more stories like ours (maybe simply bacause we started at approximately the same time). Loved the incremeltalism vs chunkenism, lol...currently I am in "doing nothing" state, though.

[JimboToronto]

Happy new year WOers.

We're already off to a good start, up a grand and a half today.

Onward and upward. Go Bitcoin go.

[xhomerx10]

23-year-old BTC miner was kidnapped and held for ransom.
The kidnappers demanded 15M rubles $166K and threatened to frame the victim as a drug smuggler if the money was not paid.
The kidnappers were arrested and are facing 12 years in prison.

Yea I just came across that. This a major reason why privacy is needed in the crypto space, especially for Bitcoiners. Imagine Satoshi was still around, I guess he would have been kidnapped so many times. For a guy of his nature, how much Bitcoins will be requested from him

 Privacy? One of the criminals was an acquaintance of the victim.

"One of the kidnappers knew the victim personally. Each of them already has a criminal record, including under articles of robbery and extortion."
*translated from: https://ren.tv/news/v-rossii/1176251-banda-pokhitila-mainera-v-izhevske-i-potrebovala-15-mln-vykupa

 I think Robert A. Heinlein said it best, "Destination Moon"... oops I meant, “An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.”

 

[Hueristic]

[xhomerx10]

~snip

Just a day at local wedding ceremony. Sharing some traditional and continental dishes in the dinner menu. Anyone has idea about these one's?

   
Photo credit: WatChe

 I don't know too much about this particular cuisine but I'm pretty sure I recognize chumchum on the left (that's what I call my youngest daughter - she's a sweety), tandoori naan bread in the center and various meat and rice dishes that would probably be waaaaaay too spicy for my liking.

edit: too many a's not enough o's (fixing a spelling mistake) 

[JimboToronto]

~snip

Just a day at local wedding ceremony. Sharing some traditional and continental dishes in the dinner menu. Anyone has idea about these one's?

   
Photo credit: WatChe

 I don't know too much about this particular cuisine but I'm pretty sure I recognize chumchum on the left (that's what I call my youngest daughter - she's a sweety), tandoori naan bread in the center and various meat and rice dishes that would probably be waaaaaay to spicy for my liking. 

Chumchum or rasgulla?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cmacwuz]

Happy New years people of the wall.

I have to read over this rake strategy, as it may be time to confront my reckless allocation and "let it ride" mentality. Like others, though, I have a working cash flow job and other tradfi allocations so there was never much of a need to liquidate. I have favored the feeling of saving in bitcoin.

[boumalo]

Could go to 40K but it's more likely we reach 50K by April.

[OutOfMemory]

HNY man!

This sounds awful. Never had infections in my ears, but have heard it can be nasty.

Get well soon, you can't miss January -- the popcorn month! (read: ETF and other fun stuff...)

Thanks, man.
I find pain manageable up to the point where you have to constantly move (kind of flight as in freeze/fight/flight?). This night was below that point, so no biggie.
The first time i had (a much more intense) ear infection, it felt like knitting needles periodically piercing my eardrum. It set in at around 1am when i was sleeping on the floor (no questions), one hour later i was in a phone booth, almost crying, when i phoned up my parents at home for some painkillers. I had a short sedated sleep at their house and went to the hospital early morning.
More than twenty years later, i learned from the doctor of my children that you have to get rid of sinus clogging ASAP after the eardrum starts twitching (precedes the pain), using decongestant nasal spray, which i always have at home since. Same procedure last night as i've done to my kids a couple of times each: unclogging sinuses, but after pain onset. Worked after two hours, when ear pressure decreased with a clicky sound a little each time. Everything was slowly getting better since.
To avoid antibiotics and painkillers: Keep nasal spray at home, especially if you have kids. If there's no major improvement after three days of spraying: Go to a (possibly better than just) good doctor. The body will get used to the spraying after a week or so, after which nothing will probably work to combat the infection, other than surgery, including local use of Antibiotics, maybe even combined with oral AB and other meds.
I had a cold infection of the bone behind the ear, which was slowly extending through the skull bone over years, which could have killed me some day, discovered by accident while undergoing a check of a tiny implant i happen to have in my head since i was 7 yo, and this infection was taken care of this way. After the surgery i had a kind of waking coma for one and a half hour, until i could move my eyes and fingers, toes again. Fucking awesome experience, i went double lucky that day, but that's already a whole different story now, which i might have already told here. This reply is already too long, i should better get some of my sleep back.

Stay healthy, brothers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

HNY man!

This sounds awful. Never had infections in my ears, but have heard it can be nasty.

Get well soon, you can't miss January -- the popcorn month! (read: ETF and other fun stuff...)

Thanks, man.
I find pain manageable up to the point where you have to constantly move (kind of flight as in freeze/fight/flight?). This night was below that point, so no biggie.
The first time i had (a much more intense) ear infection, it felt like knitting needles periodically piercing my eardrum. It set in at around 1am when i was sleeping on the floor (no questions), one hour later i was in a phone booth, almost crying, when i phoned up my parents at home for some painkillers. I had a short sedated sleep at their house and went to the hospital early morning.
More than twenty years later, i learned from the doctor of my children that you have to get rid of sinus clogging ASAP after the eardrum starts twitching (precedes the pain), using decongestant nasal spray, which i always have at home since. Same procedure last night as i've done to my kids a couple of times each: unclogging sinuses, but after pain onset. Worked after two hours, when ear pressure decreased with a clicky sound a little each time. Everything was slowly getting better since.
To avoid antibiotics and painkillers: Keep nasal spray at home, especially if you have kids. If there's no major improvement after three days of spraying: Go to a (possibly better than just) good doctor. The body will get used to the spraying after a week or so, after which nothing will probably work to combat the infection, other than surgery, including local use of Antibiotics, maybe even combined with oral AB and other meds.
I had a cold infection of the bone behind the ear, which was slowly extending through the skull bone over years, which could have killed me some day, discovered by accident while undergoing a check of a tiny implant i happen to have in my head since i was 7 yo, and this infection was taken care of this way. After the surgery i had a kind of waking coma for one and a half hour, until i could move my eyes and fingers, toes again. Fucking awesome experience, i went double lucky that day, but that's already a whole different story now, which i might have already told here. This reply is already too long, i should better get some of my sleep back.

Stay healthy, brothers.

Wow...mastoiditis, I know about it as a possibility, but the first actual case, sorry.
Indeed, a potentially dangerous condition, glad that it was discovered and treated early.
Cohlear implant-if that is what you are talking about (no need to specify if it is or isn't as it is personal, I am just going off of what you already said)-it is almost a miracle of modern medicine.