Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Zaharai]

Friends, we saw the price of Bitcoin pump up a lot in the beginning of 2024. We hope to see better things this year. For those holding Bitcoins, don't think about selling Bitcoins. Buy Bitcoin and hold it for a long time. Currently the price of Bitcoin is very low so if you don't want to regret missing this opportunity, keep buying Bitcoin.

Very well said do you have any news that indicates bitcoin will be pumped very soon? Bitcoin will pump a lot in 2024, everyone knows it already.

[WhyFhy]

Happy belated New Year Observers.

[AirtelBuzz]

Bitcoin Lightning network transfer capacity is increasing

The Bitcoin Lightning Network's capacity to make Bitcoin transactions so much easier is near an all-time high and even on an upward trajectory.

Since the launch of the Lightning Network in early 2018, its usage has grown impressively. Despite the broader cryptocurrency market fluctuating during the 2022-2023 bear market, the Layer 2 network has demonstrated a consistent uptrend. Users believe that the Lightning Network enables faster, cheaper BTC transactions and is critical to greater retail adoption of Bitcoin payments.


>>> https://crypto.news/bitcoin-lightning-network-transfer-capacity-keeps-growing/

Happy New Year everyone, I wish you all a healthy and wealthy year ahead.

Starting this year on Forums by making AI art for you all.

This one is for ChartBuddy.

How to see in the monitor??? $45K in wall ?? next $46K soon???

BTC $46k soon

Bitcoin is now trading at a 21-month high.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Happy New years people of the wall.

I have to read over this rake strategy, as it may be time to confront my reckless allocation and "let it ride" mentality. Like others, though, I have a working cash flow job and other tradfi allocations so there was never much of a need to liquidate. I have favored the feeling of saving in bitcoin.

With reference to your forum registration date, you have the potential to have had been in bitcoin long enough in order to reach a status of being able to rake (1.5 cycles or 6 years) .. .. but surely it becomes problematic if you are raking way too premature, and then probably you would just sell way less with an expectation of putting it to work in terms of having fairly aggressive buy back plans - even if the buy backs might not end up working out because there are no guarantees that the BTC price will correct, and so therefore you would have to prepare that you might not be able to buy back any of the amount that you sell, which brings us back to the question of why anyone would be selling if they have not yet accumulated enough BTC... since selling to buy back more BTC is more of a gamble than an exercise in either prudence or keeping yourself in the stronger kind of an accumulation mindset.

Let's say for example that you had lump sum invested into BTC at various points, in your earlier days, so that would be a 1.5 cycles or 6 years timeline to let the lump sum buy amounts run, so maybe you have enough BTC built up to start a raking practice.

the other part would be if you had been DCA buying all along, so even if you were fairly aggressive at $1k per month or $250 per week, then you would have had invested about $78k and accumulated about 6.72 BTC (average cost of $11,600-ish and valued currently at $305k-ish, which is right around 4x profits). 

Your profits would be good enough to start raking, but you still would have to figure out the extent to which $305k-ish is enough capital in order to start a raking strategy rather than continuing to accumulate.. and you could imagine if you are both raking and accumulating then you are kind of spending your wheels by selling coins out of one hand and buying back with the other.

Could go to 40K but it's more likely we reach 50K by April.

That is a decently fair question regarding which first $39.9k or $50.1k.. and surely I have been thinking $35k to $55k was our range, so even within the price points that you are talking about, it is still seeming like mostly noise, and guys (and gal) need their sleep.

And the other part is April..

Hory sheeeiitt..

You need more than 3-ish months to resolve noise.. and don't mean to brag too much, but at least my range numbers seem more relevant if we are going to go that far out in terms of considering which direction we might go or break..

It seems to me, even if we take the more interesting range, I would still be torn about if the BTC price might break above $55k or below $35k.. which one first, and it does almost seem that we have to take out the timeline if we are talking about which one first, because if you throw in both time and price as variables, it becomes way more difficult to put in probability assignments.. even though surely we could talk about April or even the halvening as a kind of deadline for our prediction to happen.. which the halvening is looking like it would most likely be somewhere in the second half of April. maybe close to the 20th, give or take 5 days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

[AirtelBuzz]

Jim Cramer says: BTC is a reality. It’s a technological marvel, and people need to start recognizing that it’s here to stay.



>>> https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1742201268687245635?t=anPyrgao4Qsj1dO8nMLHqQ&s=19


Tomorrow is the 15th anniversary of the Genesis Block - the first block of Bitcoin that was mined on January 3rd, 2009.

[JayJuanGee]

That would have been 2022.. 2023 was a walk in the park compared to 2022.. even though surely clown world has continued to be pretty outrageous in 2023, that's for sure...so yeah, maybe you are referring more to overall circumstances, rather than BTC price performance specifically.

BTC surpasses $44,000. The momentum continues, fueling enthusiasm in the crypto community.

Bitcoin over $44,000

Present price   BTC 44723.70$

Here we go!

What is the "crypto community?"  

Are you sure that you are in the right place?

[edited out]

The last chart looks like a there is a little wrinkle of a wall at $48k-ish.  The suspense grows.

That earlier wall was really BIG, so I would not mistaken a "little wrinkle" for the same thing.  

It seems to me that if the $48k-ish sell wall ends up getting redeployed (even at a different price, maybe $53k), then we likely would not have any difficulties in clearly identifying it.

Get the chopper ready!... And i mean, the original chopper!

okay lets do the 45 over night and wake up to 46k on the 2nd.

Bring it on!!!

we passed 45k again and I think we hit a two year high at 45.5k.

edit
we need 47.9k to get a two year high.

I hate to be all "technically" on you, but if you look at Bitstamp 3-day candles, somewhere around March 25, 2022, we had reached $48,234.  

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

To the extent that it even matters.. I still consider in the ballpark of $55k to be our meaningful resistance point that differentiates where we are at and getting into noman's land.. yet at the same time, we know that bitcoin price points do not really play out in scientific ways, even though the TA guys will frequently make such claims, and surely there will be buy orders stacking up at various support points and sell orders stacked up at various resistance points, so I am not going to completely deny BTC's price dynamics that end up happening when those support/resistance points are broken (largely a period of unchecked price movement).

[edited out]

Green candle is up trend, so possibly $60k next 1week.

Also, the MACD Strategy indicated going to up.

Seems like a stretch to just assume that we go to some place in the middle of noman's land without attempting to address what happens prior to entering noman's land, which is right around $55k.

You are presuming just getting through the $50k to $55k arena without any correction?

Yeah, of course, it is possible, but seems that there would need to be quite a bit of volume for that to happen.. and yeah, sure something like 14 Bitcoin spot ETFs getting approved within a week or two of each other (maybe even all at the same time) could facilitate such temporary trade volume to break through that.. but I would not just assume such a breaking through based on mere chart squigglies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Wow...mastoiditis, I know about it as a possibility, but the first actual case, sorry.
Indeed, a potentially dangerous condition, glad that it was discovered and treated early.
Cohlear implant-if that is what you are talking about (no need to specify if it is or isn't as it is personal, I am just going off of what you already said)-it is almost a miracle of modern medicine.

Yeah, seems to be rare. The only symptoms were a feeling of liquid inside the ear (the doctor didn't see any liquid, though) and a constant hum (like a car with diesel engine running in idle mode outside a flat, when listened to from inside) - which he thought was psychic   Though, when knocking with my thumb on the bone behind my ear it was sounding like a fat, sustained TR808 bassdrum, which kinda proved a physical relationship, but i'm not a doctor    
I insisted on getting the ossicle implant checked in the hospital, which was made of a neurotoxic aluminium-glass compound (wait for the full story).
The surgeon found the infection just when he was about to end the inspection of the implant, cut it out and threated it with antibiotics.

Now, how did i get an implant costisting of some rather dangerous material?
They just didn't know it, it was a new surgery compound from a well known manufacturer's (3M) subdivision branch, used successfully for some time already in dental lab work, when brain surgeons started to use it for replacing skull bone, resulting in early post-surgery death of the patiens because aluminium ions were leaking into the brain's liquor fluid, causing fatal encephalitis. So the sub-branch of the company was closed, de-registered, all of the material was recalled. In between those happenings, i was getting my implant, to lessen my post-accidental hearing loss, in the 80s, when you didn't need something like a certificate for implants, for airports, MRI an so on. This became obvious when i almost had my first MRI (of the head) post Y2K, and they asked me for implants, and in turn for the certificate. Then they said i can't get an MRI without the certificate. When i went to the hospital and asked to issue one, they didn't have a reference to the manufacturer and no brand name of the material, and the manufacturer, as registrar of the patent didn't exist anymore. So i just took the plunge, made another appointment at a different MRI facility and denied any knowledge of implants, like i do until today. Knowing that aluminium is not ferromagnetic, i was pretty sure that there won't be problems until the field strength of the MRI would not exceed extremely high figures.
I found this all out by research about the used material, to get a certificate for the implant. In the process i had eMail contact with a woman at 3M, who was an employee of the vanished sub-branch/corp which manufactured the withdrawn material. She brought me onto the right track. I was only lucky that this one woman got my eMail assigned, i guess.

Now that's the story. A great chain of lucky events, considering the accident which was the reason for implanting the ossicular plastic, almost got me killed in the first place as a child.  

What an incredible story, I am glad that this seems to be solved.

OT: Sometimes modern medicine uses approaches that they themselves are not sure about in the long run (too long of a story).
Sometimes, it is pure negligence, though. I was reading about 10 patients who died because the nurse was stealing fentanyl prescribed to them and was giving them tap water instead. The patients were immunocompromised, therefore, because it was tap water and not a sterilized one, got lung infections and died. If the dumb person used sterile water, nobody would have found out that she was stealing and those people would be alive.

[Phil_S]

I heard the rumors that certain $300b in "frozen" funds will be "confiscated" by the end of February, and Biden already sighed off on the decision.
That surely will destroy the trust in U.S. dollars as a reserve currency of the world.

[Torque]

OT:

Watched the first season of 'Blue Eye Samurai' on Netflix.

Really good stuff. Great even, compared to the last couple years of Hollyweird's pure garbage. Amazing animation, and awesome character development.

The writers really nailed how you're supposed to do a convincing Strong Female Character lead.

Sure, a few niggles here and there (aka a few 'woke' elements disguised very well), but nothing to detract from it overall.

Episode 5, "The Tale of the Ronin and the Bride", is an absolute masterwork of storytelling.

[Biodom]

I heard the rumors that certain $300b in "frozen" funds will be "confiscated" by the end of February, and Biden already sighed off on the decision.
That surely will destroy the trust in U.S. dollars as a reserve currency of the world.

"Interesting"
"sighed" off is the funny part...sorry for noticing probably unintended pun.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

OT:

Watched the first season of 'Blue Eye Samurai' on Netflix.

Really good stuff. Great even, compared to the last couple years of Hollyweird's pure garbage. Amazing animation, and awesome character development.

The writers really nailed how you're supposed to do a convincing Strong Female Character lead.

Sure, a few niggles here and there (aka a few 'woke' elements disguised very well), but nothing to detract from it overall.

Episode 5, "The Tale of the Ronin and the Bride", is an absolute masterwork of storytelling.

Probably that's why it has score of 8.8/10 on IMDb and 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Will definitely watch this master piece once I manage to get Netflix 

That would have been 2022.. 2023 was a walk in the park compared to 2022.. even though surely clown world has continued to be pretty outrageous in 2023, that's for sure...so yeah, maybe you are referring more to overall circumstances, rather than BTC price performance specifically.

2022 was the year that followed a year when price of bitcoin touched its ATH, i.e., 67k. So it was normal for market to take correction after a bull run. We have seen this before in 2017/18, when in Dec 2017 we have bitcoin ATH and 2018 was a bearish one.
Overall 2023 was a satisfactory year, if you are seeing it from the perspective of bitcoin price.

[Biodom]

<snip>
Overall 2023 was a satisfactory year, if you are seeing it from the perspective of bitcoin price.

5 more "satisfactory" years and btc is at about 500K 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

That would have been 2022.. 2023 was a walk in the park compared to 2022.. even though surely clown world has continued to be pretty outrageous in 2023, that's for sure...so yeah, maybe you are referring more to overall circumstances, rather than BTC price performance specifically.

2022 was the year that followed a year when price of bitcoin touched its ATH, i.e., 67k. So it was normal for market to take correction after a bull run. We have seen this before in 2017/18, when in Dec 2017 we have bitcoin ATH and 2018 was a bearish one.
Overall 2023 was a satisfactory year, if you are seeing it from the perspective of bitcoin price.

In regards to normal, I understand that every correction, many of us feel that we are going to die and that it is the worst correction ever, blah blah blah, and surely there are no two BTC price correction periods that are the same, yet we did have a pretty high quantity of fraudsters who seemed to exacerbate the 2022 correction.. need I list them?  Terra/Luna, Celsius, 3AC, Voyager, Blockfi, FTX/Alameda, Genesis/Gemini/GBTC and maybe some others.. and no I am not going to list Binance in there or Tether, even though the former had been attacked a lot in the last year, and Tether had been attacked for many previous years, and it is almost seeming like Tether is somewhat playing ball now with the BIGGEST bully on the block.. but who knows?... ..and yeah another fraud is the no pursuit of the SBF/FTX political contributions.  Who would-a-thunk that the Department of Justice would not want to pursue those charges and to publicly expose what several of those interactions were?

We also had a correction in which the BTC price got down to 35% below the 200-week moving average, and even though we did not stay at those max levels, we did spend quite a bit of time below the 200-week moving average between around  June 2022 until as late as October 2023.. and yeah, maybe the 200-week moving average is a bit of an artificial line in the sand.. but still it was historically significant in terms of a kind of level of "not being normal."

It could be that in the future, I will not need to be so attached to the 200-week moving average as the bottom, but still, we seem to remain in a bit of flux, yet if the 4-year cycle ends up getting broken, then maybe the 200-week moving average will turn out to be less relevant, but still it is a pretty long period of time, even though it would not be the end of the world if we end up having to move to a longer time frame in order to consider BTC's bottom, perhaps the 300-week moving average (which would be nearly 6 years), yet at the same time, many of sense that bitcoin is designed to pump forever - yet it can be difficult to determine how contained the levels of exuberances might end up playing out, in order to potentially contribute towards drug out periods of either high prices or even drawn out periods of lower prices that would end up dragging the 200-week moving average downward. .which still has not yet happened in bitcoin.

<snip>
Overall 2023 was a satisfactory year, if you are seeing it from the perspective of bitcoin price.

5 more "satisfactory" years and btc is at about 500K 

since bitcoin is not on any kind of straight-line trajectory, yet, we should not really expect 5 more satisfactory years, and geez, $500k is only around 11x from here, so 11x in one year should still be doable, even though some many of you bear wannabes, who unduly place bitcoin into a kind of mature asset class category and/or project out diminishing upward price performance curves are skeptical of some continuations of outrageous UPpity periods.. and it is not even that we need any of that.. but can we stop it? 

10x? 20x? or maybe even more in a year or maybe even in a 2 year period getting some of those higher numbers.. 100x might be a bit much, but not totally out of the question. just quite a bit unlikely.. in the short term, but surely not unlikely in the longer time frame in which bitcoin still has right around 20,000x price potential from here based on addressable market.. that likely would not play out in less than 40 years and would more likely be in the 100 to 200 year timeline, and ain't nobody got time for that.