Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WatChe]

Fake ETF pump

It was discussed long ago that don't get too excited for immediate effects of ETF rather wait with patience.

It took less than 3 months in 2017 i to reach 20K starting below 4K. And then everyone knew CME and CBOE won't buy actual bitcoins. Now it is different. It is hard to predict what will happen in the next few months. It depends how quickly the main ETF buyers will adapt to the new opportunity to buy bitcoin ETF's. May be there will be a rush, may be not. And may be  some will be dissapointed by the slow start and dump their coins. But in the long run the supply shock will make the difference of course.

I remember Dec 2017, when Bitcoin touched $19,000 on Dec 19. There was speculation rather confirmation in the market that in 2018 price of Bitcoin will be 100$k but a year later we saw Bitcoin at 3500$ in Dec 2018. Bitcoin didn't even saw 19000$ in 2018.
Once again the situation is very much same. With ETF's and halving coming up next year, speculations are high about Bitcoin price in 2024. I do agree that we dont know what will happen immediately but in long run it will have an impact.

[True Myth]

Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys 

[bitcoinPsycho]

Fake ETF pump

More like FAKE ETF Dump

[Biodom]

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal  

Now that I have time to post a longer argument...here it goes:

Bitcoin ETF is now one of the tradfi assets.
Tradfi asset in a "bull market" is not supposed to decline more than 20% and maintain such market.
Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

Accordingly, if we plot 20% decline from ~46K (which was the price before the approval), then it "should not" go below $36.8K
If you count from the intraday high of ~48K (but we probably shouldn't), then $38.4K.
We shall see it this prediction would hold.

EDIT: @dragonvslinux says ~30K and I say no less than $36K as long as this bull market stays a bull market.
That's a prediction.

[Torque]

Something something "it's priced in you idiots" something something... 

[dragonvslinux]

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal

Could be, but not by as much as you are suggesting, imho.

Well no, not really. It's been well documented in the media and such that this could be an "implosion of new money into Bitcoin" or a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event. So far, I'd say it's the latter, but only time will tell. To me it's more the fact Bitcoin has reached my minimum target for a retracement from ATH to bear market low. It's just a "concidence" it occurred on the day of the ETF launch. Ie, not a coincidence at all.

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels, because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run, at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish, even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

this is not summer of 2019. this is 2016 pre 1/2ing

Sure, price wicks down -40% to $30K rather than $25K, otherwise closing weekly candle around $35K (-27%). No arguments there. 0.618 fib retracement painted the same picture.

Now that i have time to post a longer argument...here it goes:

Now, bitcoin ETF is one of the tradfi assets.
Tradfi asset in a "bull market' is not supposed to decline more than 20% 9and maintain such market). Of course, i know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines, apart from 50% decline in the middle of 2021.
If we plot 20% decline from ~46K (which was the price before the approval), then it s"should not" go below $36.8K
If you count from intraday high of ~48K (but we probably shouldn't), then $38.4K.
We shall see it this prediction would hold.

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

If you are right regarding a local top Cramer would be too..  And, out of experience, that's extremely hard to swallow....

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT: A funny thought about a s-tcoin...imagine e--reum classic getting an ETF (because it is a POW commodity) before the VB coin.
VB and Jeff Lubin would faint...btw, markets think that it might be possible judging by the respective price action today.

[Biodom]

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

Really...then why why make an ETF?
Today money flows:
bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil
bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil

So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven.
This number will probably increase with time.

[OutOfMemory]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

[AirtelBuzz]

$7 Trillion Vanguard Blocked
Clients buying bitcoins
Spot ETFS on their platform.

This is like market manipulation



>>> https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1745508060146090438?t=qSjyCsCSwCbB1adDNGkF8g&s=19

[goldkingcoiner]

Bear trap on the 4 hour chart. But you guys already know that

So, still no ETF trading, just yet?

[OgNasty]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like a lift off is brewing...

I see that too. On one hand I don't expect BTC to break previous ATH until after halving. Although, even breaking 48k would be a nice touch.

On the other... how exciting would that be to break a new ATH even before the halving this bull run...  lots of "this is uncharted territory" posts if that happens.

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices  (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back.  Are we saying the same thing?  I am not sure.  Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

Really...then why why make an ETF?

Because TradFi cares about Bitcoin, clearly. Not to be confused or conflated with the alternative scenario. Bitcoin has quite clearly demonstrated today with a -5% drop post-launch: it doesn't care for TradFi. Or even arguably, TradFi doesn't care for Bitcoin yet. Either way you slice it, I stand by my original statement that appears correct as of writing: Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi.

Today money flows:
bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil
bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil

So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven.

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

For reference inflows were never expected to be that high initially, regardless of current price being high or low. Asset managers and institutions were always going to sit on the sidelines and engage in a more "wait and see" approach, as a form of basic risk management rather than FOMO into such an offering, such as waiting for price stability over a period of months.

This number will probably increase with time.

This I don't doubt, but until it does, I wouldn't describe Bitcoin as TradFi, only aspiring to be as such. There is still a long way to go, these concepts don't happen overnight or with a flick of a "ETF" switch.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal 

If I was a trader I'd like to think I would sell a little today.  Might put some of that into a leveraged hedge though in case I was wrong more quickly than I could recover from.  That said, I am not a trader.

[AlcoHoDL]

I read ETFs would help reduce Bitcoin volatility.

I see it's working already...

Just joking, obviously, I know it's too early. I'm thinking that maybe it's time to stop watching charts, go full RL and come back in a month or two.

But who can resist?

[OutOfMemory]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

I agree to that 2020 market cycle analogy.
IMO the second 2021 crash, starting the previous bear market cycle was premature due to FTX sellings. Maybe FTX and China accumulated their bearish momentum in the mid bullrun crash? However, i got no solid information on FTX '21 activities, i mostly ignored them after they bought my favorite chart monitoring app and slowly ruined it. I don't even remember the name, but it was OK for my personal preferences.

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices  (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back.  Are we saying the same thing?  I am not sure.  Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

Well, as i joined in pretty late in terms of Bitcoin history, in 2017, though being interested in BTC since 2013, i am still trying to accelerate accumulation through small scale sell high/buy low activities. In the past i was behaving relatively conservative, regarding this strategy, but it would have turned out well - in theory - so i didn't actually take some (most) opportunities, being cautious not to having to buy back at a higher price. After almost two full cycles i got more self esteem to actually set up some positions to make moar - at least a little. Sure, in the longer run, selling in the ups and buying in the downs of the cycles would be safer, as long as we don't run into a S-curve. It's a kind of in between plan i tried to figure out over the last years, maybe risking a single digit percentage of my Bitcoin holdings, no biggie.

[Toxic2040]