Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212

This just tells me that all of those speculators that poured over 3% of all BTC in existing [619,162.0971] and got caught in GBTC discount with a 2% annual fee, can finally close their positions without paying steep discount. GBTC still has the nerve to charge the remaining idiots 1,5%/yr fee. Inflows into other funds seem to offset the dismantling of GBTC, watch their AUM closely.

jee....IF your investment is either 50% over or under NAV (both happened to GBTC in 2015-2023), how important was that 2% fee?
GBTC had a SPECTACULAR return since 2015 in fiat only accounts..nothing else was even close.
GBTC is up 13056% since Sept 28, 2015, with NVDA up 8796%
Bitcoin did better, of course, but you couldn't have held it in tax advantageous accounts, unless you used some specialized IRAs that have VERY high fees per tx.
That said, of course, in a LONG run you would lose a bit more in GBTC to fees now as there are less expensive options available.
Anyone switching from GBTC to other funds needs to see what those other funds are trading at in relation to their NAV: not an advice..this is what I plan to do.
This and see which ETFs would offer options; among those, GBTC, IBIT and FBTC probably will.
My bitcoin is practically not for trading, but I have no such qualms about ETFs.

[1714246501]

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[1714246501]

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[1714246501]

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[JayJuanGee]

I know I shouldn't but I fomo-ed in a tiny bit of corn.

My 48.2k ladder hit

waiting for my 50310 to hit

as soon as the etf got approved i took out some of my lowest sell bids. no sense giving corn away now.

my new lowest sell point is up in the $60ks and that is very subject to change.. upward lol

I will agree that I get tempted to either take out some of the sells, or reduce them or to increase the increments between them, there are a variety of ways to attempt to deal with the matter.

You can also make you buy orders higher or to increase the amounts and/or decrease the spreads.  I am usually reluctant to change very much, even though I do agree the actual approval and the way it was done (which included both the approval of 11 of them and the pretty much allowance of them to begin to trade immediately) creates a bit of a sense that there is going to be quite a bit of additional upwards price pressures on BTC for the coming months and years, even though, the upward price pressures might might immediately result in upwards price movement... while at the same time, any of us should understand why both fewer folks should be willing to sell at these prices and also that fewer folks should be waiting to buy lower rather than either buying right away or being more ready to buy on smaller dip levels.

my step ladder goes to 70k

then my real ladder starts at 99534

That sounds good.  The main thing is to have a plan, and if you project out your plan (even if no one else agrees with you), then you have something to work with, and if the BTC price were to go shooting up and fill all of your orders, then that would be one of the consequences of having the order preset rather than manual.   And, sure you could have a preset quantity that you have already set, but you could also have some ideas of some reserve quantities that you might employ at various BTC price points on the way up, depending on how fast the BTC price were to end up going up.. while at the same time, we know that the sell orders might not end up getting filled, so we would need to have some level of preparation for that too.

I have frequently stated that I am not too excited about any of my sell orders that are within what I consider to be no man's zone, even though historically I have mostly maintained those kinds of sell orders - especially after a lesson that I learned in late 2015 when the BTC price went shooting up from $300 to $500k and I presumed too much about the price continuing to go up, and I ended up feeling that I had locked myself out of the whole situation because I bought rather than sold, so that when the BTC price corrected back down to $300 before resuming back up to $500 (more than 6 months later), I was kind of regretting the mistake of NOT just sticking with system that I had already thought through and put in place (but ended up abandoning out of FOMO).. so sometimes the system that is put in place can be tweaked in some ways in order to make it more comfortable, especially if something ends up happening in the market or the space that had not previously been thought to be part of expectations.... but still I am way more comfortable to lower my sell orders in noman's land rather than removing them, even though I recognize and appreciate that there may be less chances that they are going to end up getting any kind of correction to be able to buy back as compared to more "normal" times in which there may be higher odds of being able to buy back, but never are the odds for buying back so high that we should take them for granted. so in that sense it remains a good thing to have some level of expectation of never being able to buy back and also being able to live with those consequences of not being able to buy back, if they were to play out..

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal  

Oh gawd...  

You traders are really annoying, even if you may well end up being correct.  

There are so many bitcoiners who find it repulsive to be trading such a pristine asset, and treating it as if it were a shitcoin, and seeming to fail/refuse to account for how immature bitcoin continues to be which would include the ongoing pressures that come from being in early stages of adoption that has exponential s-curve aspects that are fueled by metcalfe principles and network effects.  Some people refer to your trading behavior like picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller, but still you are free to do it, and maybe you might end up being correct.  Perhaps? perhaps?

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels,

In some ways it is good that you are sticking with your guns, even though it may end up causing you to get killed.. but sure, if you have protected yourself and you are ONLY take as much risk that you are willing to take, then you likely already have built into your formula that it could be possible that the BTC price moves up rather than down or sideways as you are anticipating.  If you are either placing odds that are too high, or you are talking your book, then maybe you are nervous that you calculated your odds incorrectly... but hey, you do you.

because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run,

It may or may not be similar to the 2019 parabolic run that ended up completely retracing itself, but maybe the run is just beginning or maybe we are in the middle of it rather than your anticipating that we are at the end of it.   Your assumption that we are at the end of it seems like nearly pure crazy-land in terms of ignoring the magnanimity of having these new financial products launched.. ..and sure, it could take several months or even several years for the buying pressure to really ramp up, but it is not really seeming easy to put together those kinds of ideas under our current circumstances.

at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

You are correct that quite frequently we get 25% to 60% corrections even during bull runs, so you might end up being correct, and even getting us to the top of the 30ks is ONLY around a 20% price correction, if we consider $49,048 as our local top...so I would not be shocked for such a thing to happen, yet your coming in and bragging about your supposed local top call seems a wee bit presumptuous and perhaps that you are placing higher odds such happenings as you are able to justify.. so in other words, you are merely gambling.. or maybe saying taking a shot at something that might be more in the ball park  of 50/50 at best rather than your attempt to assign it odds as if it were in the upper 60% or even in the 70% arena..   The way you are talking, it sounds like you might even be well considering odds to be as high as that, which does not really seem to jive.. but hey, maybe you will end up being correct and you can laugh at all the HODLers who failed/refused to act on such supposed obvious trade.

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish,

Exactly, we are in a bull market and the trend is bullish, so the odds for up should be up.. which means the trend is your friend, but you want to play a wee bit of a gamble, and so I hope that you are not betting too much on such possible outcome.

even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

Maybe you are right about back then?  We had gone from $4.2k-ish to $13,880 within 3 months, so that is 3.3x in such a short period of time.

Here, in this case, we have gone from $15,479 to $49,048  (about 3.16x) in about 14 months.  Or maybe you want to play shorter time lines to say that we went from $27k to nearly $49k (which is 1.82) in nearly 3 months, and I am still thinking that such a rise is not getting you to such blow off top territories, even if you might want to suggest that the current market is not able to absorb such exponential like the more immature market might have been able to handle.. .so that still seems like a false comparison, even though I can see why you are wanting to make such a play. and still hoping that you do not end up losing your shirt too badly on such a play.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Wouldn’t take the risk myself neither….

Few FIAT bucks profit not to be sure what it’s gonna do….

This time really can be different.
*just not selling any coins on the cheap.

Dude you are in  a different league then others or at least I have that impression.

If I had 300 coins in spring of 2021 I would have sold 25 at say 60k x 25 = 1.5 million after tax I would have

1,000,000 and that would cover me from 2021 to at least 2026.  WHICH means I could easy peasy hodl right

now.

I did not or ever had 300 coins (my own stupidity as it was easy for me to do at 1 time)

So I have 2 ladder ups.

45k to 70k a smaller step ladder these sales cover me for all of 2024

101k and up a large real ladder these sales give me funds for 3 years

and I still hodl.

But I am not at your scale dude not at all.

Maybe any of us is in a pickle if they are feeling they need to sell BTC prior to having had accumulated enough to get at entry-level fuck you status, and I am not even sure why anyone who had 300 BTC would have had been worried as of around mid-to-late 2020, the 200-week moving average ended up bringing them above entry-level fuck you status.  See my chart on the topic.

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $0.30                    12/1/10                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000
.....

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
5/31/20	$9,472	$5,895	20.11%		$987.00	339.2706
11/30/20	$19,610	$7,322	24.21%		$1,427.00	273.1494
5/31/21	$35,497	$12,751	74.15%		$5,429.00	156.8504
11/30/21	$57,003	$17,839	39.9%		$5,088.00	112.1139
5/31/22	$29,817	$22,074	23.74%		$4,235.00	90.6043
11/30/22	$17,164	$24,112	9.23%		$2,038.00	82.9463
06/01/2023	$26,822	$26,313	10.9%		$2,201.00	76.0081
11/30/23	$37,814	$29,049	10.4%		$3,021.10	68.84920000
5/31/24		$33,697	16.%		$5,391.49	59.35270000
11/29/24		$39,196	16.32%	102.00%	$6,396.81	51.02540000
5/31/25		$45,721	16.65%	102.00%	$7,610.89	43.74365689
11/30/25		$53,484	16.98%	102.00%	$9,081.23	37.39434790
5/31/26		$58,298	9.%	.00%	$5,246.78	34.30674120
11/30/26		$63,282	8.55%	95.00%	$5,410.61	31.60455200
5/31/27		$68,422	8.12%	95.00%	$5,557.59	29.23031931
11/30/27		$73,702	7.72%	95.00%	$5,687.11	27.13637487
5/31/28		$84,020	14.%		$11,763	23.80383760
11/29/28		$96,018	14.28%	102.00%	$13,711	20.82939937
5/31/29		$110,004	14.57%	102.00%	$16,023	18.18119870
11/29/29		$126,347	14.86%	102.00%	$18,771	15.82943367
5/31/30		$136,455	8.%		$10,916	14.65688302
11/30/30		$146,825	7.6%	95.00%	$11,159	13.62163850
5/31/31		$157,426	7.22%	95.00%	$11,366	12.70438211
11/30/31		$168,224	6.86%	95.00%	$11,538	11.88892102
5/30/32		$188,411	12.%		$22,609	10.61510805
11/29/32		$211,472	12.24%	102.00%	$25,884	9.45750895

So anyone with at least 157 BTC in the beginning of 2021 or 112 BTC at the end of 2021 could have easily started to sell 4% of their stash per year and not had to have had worried whether in BTC price doldrums or not.  And, even though 2022 and 2023, were not really great years for the 200-week moving average going up (since it only went up around 20% per year for much of that time, we still got to the point of double digits for the quantity of BTC necessary for entry-level fuck you status going from 90 BTC to 83 BTC, to 76 BTC and only around 69 BTC for as late as late 2023, with a projection of 51 BTC to 59 BTC for entry-level fuck you status for this year.

So I don't really see why there would be needs for anyone with at least those quantities of coins during each of those respective years to be worrying about if he has enough coins if he is merely wanting to cash out of BTC in a kind of sustainable way.. and so in other words having 300 BTC would be way superficial even for early as early 2021.

By the way, it is starting to seem that I had gone overboard on my conversion of my fuck you status chart into bing overly conservative in terms of where we likely are going to be in May 2024 or even December 2024, in terms of the quantity of coins that are going to be necessary for default entry-level fuck you status, and surely I feel better to be conservative, but it is quite amazing how the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status has continued to come down, and surely no needs to be whining about not having 300 BTC within it is seeming soon to be the case that 51 BTC is going t be adequate by the end of this year.

Maybe another 89 ETFs would help? 

11 should be enough.

No need to be greedy.

Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys 

I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[True Myth]

Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys  

I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.

Appreciate the info!

My situation is a bit more complex than solely basing my fuck you status on a dollar figure. For opsec reasons I'll just say that time is an equal factor for me.  Even if I had say 50 Bitcoins today, I would still have a timing factor and would still be in accumulation mode.

*Edit*
However, if I had say 200 Bitcoins today my fuck you status could possibly be manipulated into occurring sooner.  Unfortunately, I cannot claim the 200 mark. Magic 8 ball says more buys in my foreseeable future.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. 

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

I agree to that 2020 market cycle analogy.
IMO the second 2021 crash, starting the previous bear market cycle was premature due to FTX sellings. Maybe FTX and China accumulated their bearish momentum in the mid bullrun crash? However, i got no solid information on FTX '21 activities, i mostly ignored them after they bought my favorite chart monitoring app and slowly ruined it. I don't even remember the name, but it was OK for my personal preferences.

I remember 2022 differently.  FTX did not really start to panic and sell their BTC until late in 2022 ( maybe that was even as late as September or October, which would have been around $20k and sure maybe it was already too late for them), but we had already gotten several crashes before FTX was understood to be doomed.  For examples of prior crashes the BIG one was Terra/Luna that led to 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi and Voyagert.  Also, remember FTX went from being the savior of everyone, and then that all fell through all of a sudden.  The were even in the midst of a deal to buy Voyager.  And then further crashes of Genesis and the shenanigans with Gemini and Grayscale did not come until after the FTX crash and maybe it was already into early 2023 when that stuff was going on.

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices  (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back.  Are we saying the same thing?  I am not sure.  Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

Well, as i joined in pretty late in terms of Bitcoin history, in 2017, though being interested in BTC since 2013, i am still trying to accelerate accumulation through small scale sell high/buy low activities.

Like I mentioned, I am not much of a fan of selling in order to accumulate more Bitcoin... and I am personally a fan of buying more to accumulate more BTC.. but sure once you get to over accumulation stages, then you can sell some, but from my point of view, the selling is not meant to be for the purpose of accumulating more.  I suppose it could be interesting to know if that works, but maybe we are just talking in terms of degrees that I would not necessarily object to, since I am a bit of a fan for selling on the way up, I just have my doubts about selling out of one hand and buying from the other or selling too soon and then having to buy back higher when it would have just been better to either just HODL or to keep buying or just wait to buy on dips rather than selling in order to accumulate.

In the past i was behaving relatively conservative, regarding this strategy, but it would have turned out well - in theory - so i didn't actually take some (most) opportunities, being cautious not to having to buy back at a higher price. After almost two full cycles i got more self esteem to actually set up some positions to make moar - at least a little. Sure, in the longer run, selling in the ups and buying in the downs of the cycles would be safer, as long as we don't run into a S-curve. It's a kind of in between plan i tried to figure out over the last years, maybe risking a single digit percentage of my Bitcoin holdings, no biggie.

Yeah, maybe in the end, it will all work out for you to play that strategy?

Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys  

I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.

Appreciate the info!

My situation is a bit more complex than solely basing my fuck you status on a dollar figure. For opsec reasons I'll just say that time is an equal factor for me.  Even if I had say 50 Bitcoins today, I would still have a timing factor and would still be in accumulation mode.

*Edit*
However, if I had say 200 Bitcoins today my fuck you status could possibly be manipulated into occurring sooner.  Unfortunately, I cannot claim the 200 mark. Magic 8 ball says more buys in my foreseeable future.

In some sense, I am NOT attempting to be overly definitive regarding when anyone might transition from a status in which he feels that he needs to accumulate more coins and when he starts to feel as if he has enough coins, and maybe even with my own coins, I had considered that I have enough way before reaching the fuck you status on paper... even though we can suggest that between 2013 and 2020, I had considered default entry-level fuck you status to be $1million rather than $2 million, so presumptively that would mean that ONLY half of the coins as was depicted in the chart were needed prior to 2020, but then after 2020, I began to consider default entry-level fuck you status as $2 million.... and maybe it has ONLY been in the last cycle or so that I have become more and more wedded to the 200-week moving average (as a bottom price), and maybe partly due to some of stock-to-flows influencing the way that many of us talk about bitcoin.. including that it can sometimes be difficult to try to keep focusing on bottoms rather than tops, even though both end up being important when it comes to figuring out ways to manage your BTC stash or thinking about if you have enough coins, yet.

Maybe my own juggling with some of these issues also had to do with having a certain amount invested in bitcoin by late 2014 as being 10% and then reaching 13.5% by late 2015, and then thinking that I had gone passed my target accumulation level by 3.5%, so I had always there after considered that I was in a status of overaccumulation since any amount of BTC that I was selling would not really end up reducing my BTC stash. 

I am not going to claim to know the answer, and if you say that you have to keep accumulating BTC until 2032, then so be it.  You are the best one to be making those kinds of decisions in regards if you have enough or if you might need to change your strategies away from ongoing accumulation and maybe more into maintenance and/or liquidation... even though you still could be buying on dips even if you are in maintenance, and I would imagine that you would also not be precluded from buying when you are in liquidation stage either.

[Biodom]

Wouldn’t take the risk myself neither….

Few FIAT bucks profit not to be sure what it’s gonna do….

This time really can be different.
*just not selling any coins on the cheap.

Dude you are in  a different league then others or at least I have that impression.

If I had 300 coins in spring of 2021 I would have sold 25 at say 60k x 25 = 1.5 million after tax I would have

1,000,000 and that would cover me from 2021 to at least 2026.  WHICH means I could easy peasy hodl right

now.

I did not or ever had 300 coins (my own stupidity as it was easy for me to do at 1 time)

So I have 2 ladder ups.

45k to 70k a smaller step ladder these sales cover me for all of 2024

101k and up a large real ladder these sales give me funds for 3 years

and I still hodl.

But I am not at your scale dude not at all.

Maybe any of us is in a pickle if they are feeling they need to sell BTC prior to having had accumulated enough to get at entry-level fuck you status, and I am not even sure why anyone who had 300 BTC would have had been worried as of around mid-to-late 2020, the 200-week moving average ended up bringing them above entry-level fuck you status.  See my chart on the topic.

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $0.30                    12/1/10                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000
.....

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
5/31/20	$9,472	$5,895	20.11%		$987.00	339.2706
11/30/20	$19,610	$7,322	24.21%		$1,427.00	273.1494
5/31/21	$35,497	$12,751	74.15%		$5,429.00	156.8504
11/30/21	$57,003	$17,839	39.9%		$5,088.00	112.1139
5/31/22	$29,817	$22,074	23.74%		$4,235.00	90.6043
11/30/22	$17,164	$24,112	9.23%		$2,038.00	82.9463
06/01/2023	$26,822	$26,313	10.9%		$2,201.00	76.0081
11/30/23	$37,814	$29,049	10.4%		$3,021.10	68.84920000
5/31/24		$33,697	16.%		$5,391.49	59.35270000
11/29/24		$39,196	16.32%	102.00%	$6,396.81	51.02540000
5/31/25		$45,721	16.65%	102.00%	$7,610.89	43.74365689
11/30/25		$53,484	16.98%	102.00%	$9,081.23	37.39434790
5/31/26		$58,298	9.%	.00%	$5,246.78	34.30674120
11/30/26		$63,282	8.55%	95.00%	$5,410.61	31.60455200
5/31/27		$68,422	8.12%	95.00%	$5,557.59	29.23031931
11/30/27		$73,702	7.72%	95.00%	$5,687.11	27.13637487
5/31/28		$84,020	14.%		$11,763	23.80383760
11/29/28		$96,018	14.28%	102.00%	$13,711	20.82939937
5/31/29		$110,004	14.57%	102.00%	$16,023	18.18119870
11/29/29		$126,347	14.86%	102.00%	$18,771	15.82943367
5/31/30		$136,455	8.%		$10,916	14.65688302
11/30/30		$146,825	7.6%	95.00%	$11,159	13.62163850
5/31/31		$157,426	7.22%	95.00%	$11,366	12.70438211
11/30/31		$168,224	6.86%	95.00%	$11,538	11.88892102
5/30/32		$188,411	12.%		$22,609	10.61510805
11/29/32		$211,472	12.24%	102.00%	$25,884	9.45750895

So anyone with at least 157 BTC in the beginning of 2021 or 112 BTC at the end of 2021 could have easily started to sell 4% of their stash per year and not had to have had worried whether in BTC price doldrums or not.  And, even though 2022 and 2023, were not really great years for the 200-week moving average going up (since it only went up around 20% per year for much of that time, we still got to the point of double digits for the quantity of BTC necessary for entry-level fuck you status going from 90 BTC to 83 BTC, to 76 BTC and only around 69 BTC for as late as late 2023, with a projection of 51 BTC to 59 BTC for entry-level fuck you status for this year.

So I don't really see why there would be needs for anyone with at least those quantities of coins during each of those respective years to be worrying about if he has enough coins if he is merely wanting to cash out of BTC in a kind of sustainable way.. and so in other words having 300 BTC would be way superficial even for early as early 2021.

By the way, it is starting to seem that I had gone overboard on my conversion of my fuck you status chart into bing overly conservative in terms of where we likely are going to be in May 2024 or even December 2024, in terms of the quantity of coins that are going to be necessary for default entry-level fuck you status, and surely I feel better to be conservative, but it is quite amazing how the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status has continued to come down, and surely no needs to be whining about not having 300 BTC within it is seeming soon to be the case that 51 BTC is going t be adequate by the end of this year.

This table now suggests about 20% yearly ROI between today and Dec 2031, which is kind of low.
Personally, I thought it could become 25% or so or even maybe 30% (double the Nasdaq).
7 years from now with 25% would be 219K and with 30%-288K.

[d_eddie]

Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.[8]

But the real question is...

Is bitcoin related to crypto or not?

[Toxic2040]

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $0.30                    12/1/10                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000
.....

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
5/31/20	$9,472	$5,895	20.11%		$987.00	339.2706
11/30/20	$19,610	$7,322	24.21%		$1,427.00	273.1494
5/31/21	$35,497	$12,751	74.15%		$5,429.00	156.8504
11/30/21	$57,003	$17,839	39.9%		$5,088.00	112.1139
5/31/22	$29,817	$22,074	23.74%		$4,235.00	90.6043
11/30/22	$17,164	$24,112	9.23%		$2,038.00	82.9463
06/01/2023	$26,822	$26,313	10.9%		$2,201.00	76.0081
11/30/23	$37,814	$29,049	10.4%		$3,021.10	68.84920000
5/31/24		$33,697	16.%		$5,391.49	59.35270000
11/29/24		$39,196	16.32%	102.00%	$6,396.81	51.02540000
5/31/25		$45,721	16.65%	102.00%	$7,610.89	43.74365689
11/30/25		$53,484	16.98%	102.00%	$9,081.23	37.39434790
5/31/26		$58,298	9.%	.00%	$5,246.78	34.30674120
11/30/26		$63,282	8.55%	95.00%	$5,410.61	31.60455200
5/31/27		$68,422	8.12%	95.00%	$5,557.59	29.23031931
11/30/27		$73,702	7.72%	95.00%	$5,687.11	27.13637487
5/31/28		$84,020	14.%		$11,763	23.80383760
11/29/28		$96,018	14.28%	102.00%	$13,711	20.82939937
5/31/29		$110,004	14.57%	102.00%	$16,023	18.18119870
11/29/29		$126,347	14.86%	102.00%	$18,771	15.82943367
5/31/30		$136,455	8.%		$10,916	14.65688302
11/30/30		$146,825	7.6%	95.00%	$11,159	13.62163850
5/31/31		$157,426	7.22%	95.00%	$11,366	12.70438211
11/30/31		$168,224	6.86%	95.00%	$11,538	11.88892102
5/30/32		$188,411	12.%		$22,609	10.61510805
11/29/32		$211,472	12.24%	102.00%	$25,884	9.45750895

+1 WOsMerit  ...despite a typo...not even really... just miss spelt (being/bing)...i think it a trap to convince me you are not a bot

11 should be enough.

No need to be greedy.

 

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

This table now suggests about 20% yearly ROI between today and Dec 2031, which is kind of low.
Personally, I thought it could become 25% or so or even maybe 30% (double the Nasdaq).
7 years from now with 25% would be 219K and with 30%-288K.

I had two previous charts that were more bullish, and since I had to adjust each of them down in the last two 6 month periods to match with the actual 200-week moving average (the 200-week moving average) versus the prediction, I thought that it would be better to error on the side of being more conservative.. .and yeah, maybe I went a wee bit too far in the conservative direction, but I personally feel a bit better to error on the side of being overly conservative rather than overly bullish.

Another thing is that if we are always attempting to consider future BTC price (or even 200-WMA) predictions in terms of nominal terms rather than real terms that might include the debasement of the dollar, then I might still end up being correct (not that I give too many shits about being a wannabe Nostradamus) in terms of real terms, even if the dollar ends up debasing a lot more than expected and the prices end up doing another doubling every 10 years because I failed to adequately account for the likely level of the dollar's ongoing debasement.

[El duderino_]

Did you do it yourself, or is it a repost from somewhere else?

Think planB repost

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Did you do it yourself, or is it a repost from somewhere else?

Think planB repost

Withheld my merit
Next time, it's my ignore list
Thanks Duderino





#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AirtelBuzz]

Top 5 spot Bitcoin trading volumes today:

Grayscale: $2.3 billion
BlackRock: $1 billion
Fidelity: $700 million
ARK 21Shares: $288 million
Bitwise: $125 million

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DaRude]

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.

I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212

This just tells me that all of those speculators that poured over 3% of all BTC in existing [619,162.0971] and got caught in GBTC discount with a 2% annual fee, can finally close their positions without paying steep discount. GBTC still has the nerve to charge the remaining idiots 1,5%/yr fee. Inflows into other funds seem to offset the dismantling of GBTC, watch their AUM closely.

jee....IF your investment is either 50% over or under NAV (both happened to GBTC in 2015-2023), how important was that 2% fee?
GBTC had a SPECTACULAR return since 2015 in fiat only accounts..nothing else was even close.
GBTC is up 13056% since Sept 28, 2015, with NVDA up 8796%
Bitcoin did better, of course, but you couldn't have held it in tax advantageous accounts, unless you used some specialized IRAs that have VERY high fees per tx.
That said, of course, in a LONG run you would lose a bit more in GBTC to fees now as there are less expensive options available.
Anyone switching from GBTC to other funds needs to see what those other funds are trading at in relation to their NAV: not an advice..this is what I plan to do.
This and see which ETFs would offer options; among those, GBTC, IBIT and FBTC probably will.
My bitcoin is practically not for trading, but I have no such qualms about ETFs.

GBTC has been trading at a discount since Feb '21 (that's almost 6% in fees from the top) and was -40% just in June '23. It wasn't the inflow from tax accounts that closed that gap down to -1.9% day before approval, but a bet for an ETF. Now those that bought at the discount shall rip the benefit, fillippone had a whole thread on GBTC somewhere

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
Credit to ChartBuddy