Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

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[xhomerx10]

I was told of a friend of a friend who lived on noodles and water for 1 month straight. And then he died. Not sure of the cause of death. Not sure if it was ramen either.

 Was this friend of a friend living at Camp Lejeune?

This was not as widespread as people think.

I was there during that timeframe so I checking into it and your had to be there for a minimum of 3 months and gone to a specific building for them to even check into it.

 Thanks for the information.  I'm just going by the radio ads from law firms I constantly hear.  I honestly had no other frame of reference.

[cmacwuz]

I will go to Zeunerts lurker convention, but under the condition that no hats are allowed.

There are more lurkers than you think on the WO....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

You are against sell ladders into a bull I am for them.

just don’t over sell your holdings. I e if you have 1 btc don’t sell it all in the runup to 100k

My selling stack is far less than my holding stack.

and I still mine in order to stack more.

[philipma1957]

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

for me this is not a bull market.

its a bull trap.

due to my coins being acquired via mining. ⛏️

my cost average is under 30k for getting coins.

and once the ½ ing comes my cost average turns into 60k.  so since price is not 62k as a miner I turn bear in under sixty days.

I need to have a cushion for
apr
 may
 june
 july
aug
sept
power costs

so I have a sell ladder. once it gets filled on the top at 72k I will have enough power cushion for six months.


now I accumulated btc since my reset in 2022.

All coins were at the 16k to 52k level

so I am sure jjg can tell you the average price from nov 22 to feb 24.  about  65 weeks time

maybe 30k  .  so selling under 15%  of coins  all at profits and all tax free due to write off created in sept 2022 works for me.

I am different then most here as I get most coin via mining.⛏️

[OROBTC]

*ding*

52k baby.

when 53?

Soon (tm)

vokain, welcome back!


*  *  *

@philipma1957, *maybe* I'll start selling a little bit at $80k, but that's just because I am always uncertain.  But, I'm not selling much at below $100,000.  The Hal Finney predictions of $1M+ make more sense now.

Even so, no one knows how the future will go.  I will sell bits & pieces of BTC as the prices goes up bigly, but I will never sell it all.  Just like the last cycle when BTC hit its all time highs.

[philipma1957]

*ding*

52k baby.

when 53?

Soon (tm)

vokain, welcome back!


*  *  *

@philipma1957, *maybe* I'll start selling a little bit at $80k, but that's just because I am always uncertain.  But, I'm not selling much at below $100,000.  The Hal Finney predictions of $1M+ make more sense now.

Even so, no one knows how the future will go.  I will sell bits & pieces of BTC as the prices goes up bigly, but I will never sell it all.  Just like the last cycle when BTC hit its all time highs.

absolutely agree with you.

one ladder selling at 50-70k
next ladder selling at 97-117k

figure out what is next after we do those two ladders.

and still stacking via mining

[JimboToronto]

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In an early bull market, you buy remain all in, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

ftfy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In an early bull market, you buy remain all in, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

ftfy

I’m also firmly against sell ladders. It’s beyond obvious at this point that Bitcoin moves in a 4-year cycle. I don’t think there’s many people left that deny this. There’s never been an easier asset to trade (and I don’t trade it). You just buy in early 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027; and you sell in late 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029… Do this and you’ll make a fortune. You could also just DCA until you want to cash out. Setting up sell ladders though… In what world or with what backtesting has this been considered a good idea?

[Toxic2040]

gm

Happy Valentine's Day!     


-----------


the morning wall report


dyor


yesterdays defense against the legacy market sell off and the VIX run up was one of the most epic hodls ever....few understand this
continued accumulation into March with some local consolidation likely
this is usually the part of the year when stocks retreat to take some profit and the dollar surges...lets see how that plays out for Jerome and the boys with inflation nipping at their heels still
bitcoin looking very shiny atm and drawing many eyes
steady on lads



1h



4h

stronkhands

[fillippone]

When?

So many fond memories of that object.
I can still feel the enjoyment of the slow rendering of pages in front of my eyes.
Something fiber and Starlink ^(*) users are not meant to understand.

(*) I am one of those, by the way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SamReomo]

@philipma1957, *maybe* I'll start selling a little bit at $80k, but that's just because I am always uncertain.  But, I'm not selling much at below $100,000.  The Hal Finney predictions of $1M+ make more sense now.

I guess Hal Finney's prediction is the best prediction about Bitcoin that someone could think off. I mean it's best if someone can hold their Bitcoin when it reaches $1M or $1m+ per coin but most people don't have that much patience. For such people who are in hurry to enjoy some profits from their holdings $100k seems a good value I believe.

But, surely the ones with more than 1 Bitcoin could sell some of their holdings at $80k as that's also a profitable value for them if they bought Bitcoin when it was cheaper. Even the ones who bought Bitcoin at $16k during the last bear market's dip can make some good profits if they sell their holdings at $80k. That's around a 4x profit for them which's kind of cool return on investment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

You need to UP your posting game Zeunerts.
Anyhow, so back to the question about you, Zeunerts.  What was your 2013 and 2014 experience like?  What were you doing in regards to bitcoin during that time?

I had a change of nickname recently. I have actually written part of my history previously on different occasions. But I will try to summarize again.

The biggest regret is that I actually heard about bitcoin before 2013 and thought about mining it, but didnt. Its easy to say in hindsight. And its also not sure that things would have played out better, maybe I would have sold early(?).
But I stumbled upon bitcoin once again end of 2013, most likely because it was getting attention because it was getting closer and closer to 1000 USD. I found this forum and spent several nights reading and reading. I remember SlipperySlopes S-Curve.. rpietila etc. Then I made the decision to invest (avg 650-700USD/btc), a big part of my savings (I know, young and stupid). But I would survive without it. Spent the coming years in great loss, didnt sell any.

Made my next mistake by selling some in the 2017 bullrun, early. Experimented with shitcoins and ICOs etc. In summary though, I did better than most, I have probably more BTC thanks to that.

Going through everything from 2013 until today is quite the ride, all the ups and downs, all the china bans, declaring bitcoin dead 4716 times..
Since then, I have converted everything to BTC and tried not to touch it too much. If things play out well in the coming years, I will sell some - not too much. Its getting more and more scarce/valuable..

Yep.. if you sell some, then only you are in a position to know if you have enough that you can start to shave some off without regretting it, which apparently happened to you in 2017, and so maybe you are in a better position to figure out some kind of a way to shave off in a way that is comfortable for you. .which is something that I try to address in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and bitmover has made a tool in which we try to put those ideas into a format that guys might be able to use when they start to feel that they have enough BTC.. but then if you are not really into sustainable withdrawal then you might be more into raking your bitcoin profits, which is another attempt that I make in this post terms of framing some tools for that in which I created an Excel spreadsheet and fillippone had linked a GoogleSpreadsheet version for guys to plug in their own numbers.

Yeah, I have already seen most of those tools, thanks! Not sure which way I might go, but the general idea is good, and to have a plan going in to the next bullrun is good.
I have no plans to live of my BTC just yet (monthly withdrawals). I have a good enough income to use for everyday life, bills etc.

There surely can be questions regarding the extent to which you are still building your investment portfolio and/or leaving your investment portfolio to continue to appreciate in value.. whether you are ONLY in bitcoin and/or if you have other investments to draw upon and/or an income that is sufficient to support your lifestyle to whatever extent that you might be inclined to keep it the same or to move it to a higher level of spending.

There also could be times in which you start to get senses that you have too many BTC, including at the rate that you anticipate them to appreciate in value in the future.

You could have in mind the level of default entry-level fuck you status that I had outlined in my entry-level fuck you status chart (which would be $2 million in value), or you could have some other target in mind that still may well include the anticipation that the number of BTC that you need in order to reach your target would be dropping, and then if you have your own customized entry-level in mind, then you might also start to anticipate that if there might be some multitude higher than the entry-level that you would like to reach prior to starting to draw upon your stash on a fairly regular basis.  Well and I suppose that is when you get to some kind of an anticipation to start drawing monthly...

versus the raking idea that is more purely around the idea of taking advantage of various exponential rises in BTC prices. .whether you plan to buy back after selling or not, there could be some thresholds upon which you would prefer to rake a little profits.. and to keep that value in another form (whether in dollars or putting into some investment or maybe just consuming it in some kind of a way), since many of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable characteristics of bitcoin remains its ongoing volatility that is about the most assured thing that exists with it (even if there are ongoing wishful-thinking claims to its stability.. which are not complete myths, but pretty likely spinnings of something that might be trending towards stability but still a long way off from stability - perhaps in 20-50 years best case scenario in the ball park of 10x to 100x gold's market cap.. perhaps, perhaps?), but we likely can have little to no confidence with the exact direction of BTC's ongoing and inevitable volatility, especially in the shorter terms of less than a cycle.. and even if directionally we still should be expecting the 200-week moving average (or maybe you like some other longer term bottom indicator?) to continue to trend (or is it "tend") upwardly.

After the excitement of the current broken resistance, i went ahead to check the Fear and Greed Indicator
it was light green(cautious)yesterday and now it on the 79% rader point

Edt:
img src: https://coinstats.app/fear-and-greed
close edit
We might be in another dip soon as these traders are preparing to TP(take profit).Besides, there're  resistance ahead  to break

"We" always might be on the precipice of "another dip," but I would be careful about taking too much profits too soon based on some lame-ass theories regarding sentiment that might be "too frothy."  There are traders who have had even better theories than that who end up getting their lil selfies reckt (or at least decently, and unnecessarily damaged) because they are spending too much time preparing their lil selfies for DOWNity while failing/refusing to make sure that they are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP.

So good luck with your ideas of "down before up,"  that may or may not end up working out for you.

And regards to the supposed resistance ahead.. some of that has already been broken by getting above $50k.. and there is always some resistance.. and surely my own theory is that we don't get into no man's land until about $55k, so I am already implying some resistance between $50k and $55k, but still that seems to be a BIG so fucking what?.. let's see how it plays out.. .. and of course, we always should be prepared for both price directions.. but calling what you are doing, planning to do or suggesting that others do, "taking profits" causes me to speculate that you might not understand dee cornz very much too well... but hey, you do you... it's a free world, the last time I checked (oh wait....).

How is that "profit-taking" going for you @promise444c5?

For sure recent BTC price action has been exciting (whether we end up getting a correction from here or not), and even if I might prematurely be getting excited, especially since we have not even quite gotten out of the "don't wake me up zone" yet... but still getting aroused a wee bit.. and even considering the possibility of moving the bottom of the "don't wake me up zone" from $35k to $38k-ish..

On a related note, I also just posted the below in the Top 20 100 days in bitcoin thread.

I miss this thread 🧵.

Been too long.

You and me both philip Need doogie to get on his pants and update this chart
Looks back edit ... hmm 2021 was 50K + ....
I may be a bit to influenced by the MSM (ponders napping again mumble that ETF got to me

Noted for record keeping (Note to self count days till we hit 100) From today
100  2021-04-21  55,375

We might be back in business soon?  and even if the dollar is still a few thousand away from entering into the top 100, some of the other currencies might have had already gotten into the top 100, even though even the Euro's information (the raw data) does not seem to have been updating in the last month or so.

Breaking $69.000 ATH before halving is uber mega bullish.

Seemed like such a long shot, just a few months ago.. especially in October when Adam Back was predicting $100k before the halvening, and now even he is not looking so crazy.

This is also the end of the 4 year boom bust cycles IMO. With the ETFs we are now only getting a very small taste of the money coming in. There are multiple trillions out there that are going to flow in over the next few years and I don't think seeing the price between 200-500k would be that surprising. Sure, it would be nice if this money was coming in through self custody rather than ETFs, but that's not how people work. It also doesn't matter because bitcoin is free to all good or evil, rich or poor, asshole or nice, stupid or smart. Bitcoin does not care, it just is.

Personally, I am not going to write off the 4-year cycles.. even though they might end up falling into some kind of a wee different kind of a pattern due to some of the entrance of new money.

And so what?  multiple trillion coming in?  that just makes for the possibility of a return to a 100x or more blow off top (like 2013) or maybe a more modest 78x blow off top, like 2017, rather than our more or less relatively whimpy 16x blow off top of 2021.

By the way, $200k to $500k is ONLY a mere 10x to 20x if we might want to use $27k as our jumping off point...   To me, that eems like a BIG so what? and not enough to even come close to calling death to the 4-year cycle.

In udder words.. careful in terms of your prematurely wanting to proclaim death the the four-year cycle.. merely based on a wee widdo bit of interluding excitementaningss..

WWWWEeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

[gappie]

... But my account is older than yours.

Oh my bad...

Huh! A 2014 newb... now that is special. And in that case...I bow down to you sir.

I prefer lurker. I have been following this forum since 2013, and mainly this thread (90%~). I try to keep up to date. I find many people here interesting.
It's a good place to get a feel for the market, and a summary of different news outlets often gets posted here.

Got you beat.

The only downside of lurking is I didn't get a hat.

hmm..lurking here since before this thread started. Guess its time again for a proof of life post. See you at 100k

[criptoevangelista]

Seemed like such a long shot, just a few months ago.. especially in October when Adam Back was predicting $100k before the halvening, and now even he is not looking so crazy.

At the time when I read about Adam Back's bet on the 100k I thought he was crazy for betting that, unless he had some privileged information, which I think is difficult...  At that time bitcoin was in the region of 30k. It was impossible for such a bold bet to succeed, nowadays I think it could be completely viable.

[JayJuanGee]

Breaking $69.000 ATH before halving is uber mega bullish.

Think the same
Also just breaking the pattern would be nice
Doing something different etc

Hhahahahahaha

No reason to get bored with dee cornz.

There are likely going to be ongoing breakings of various patterns that are not always easy to spot while within them.. but still.... I doubt that wars have exact patterns, even if you know who is winning and who is likely going to continue to win.. namely my lil precious.      

Hi guys, good to see you again.
Question for the bears: bitcoin still waiting at 12k or can I buy right now?

ProTip: Continue to wait.

Hi guys, good to see you again.
Question for the bears: bitcoin still waiting at 12k or can I buy right now?

some bears are waiting for 6k

The upped there price to 12k…

But still imo all those bears where actually right bc price was 15.6 so we can never time the market perfect… so those bears must be mentally ill bc not to start buying from 20k down and buying an amazing Dip

Just the same for people who predicting 200k if intentions are sell at those prices (for whatever reasons) then -125-150…. To 200 and over are all positive sells as for the top we can also don’t predict and a little under = still a perfect prediction imo…

I made a few adjustments to my ladders between $53k and $150k in my tentative anticipation of various resistance points, and I outlined a tentative plan for between $150k to $500k, which surely it would not be too difficult to extrapolate supra $500k, but we need to get a bit closer before I get too concrete about those kinds of numbers. Still having problems with brainstorming (within my own brain) regarding ways to become better at spending..

Mega pump imminent  .  .Let's go

Scary, huh?  For me it is, and I am not even doubting the truth of your proclamation... whether we like it or not.. just having to embrace for the additional likely holey fucking shit to add upon the already existing holey fucking shit that already exists.