Speaking about sell ladders, I don’t think it’s important to really devise a strict sell strategy but you should probably have some kind of plan ahead of the upcoming peak bull run.
I sold nothing in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and really regretted it in 2018 and 2019 as we endured a harsh bear market. I told myself I’d never be so unprepared again so I set up a plan to sell some in the next bull. To be honest, I deviated away from the sell plan I devised as we didn’t go as high as I expected in 2020 and 2021. I still did particularly well though and took out significant fiat. I was able to buy back a good % of what I sold during the recent bear market.
It’s all about experiences, earning your stripes. I don’t think you can fully know what you’re doing with any great conviction until you’ve been through two full, four year cycles. I am currently planning and devising a strategy for selling some more in, I expect 2025. I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.
The halving is nearing and we are already over 50k, I think maybe even the most battle hardened, OG HODLERS of all, could be surprised by the sheer violent parabolic upwards surge we could see next year. The demand and pure scarcity of coins available due to these spot etfs eating the supply could melt faces.
As always, the Wall Observer will be a fun place to see the wild emotions of fellow bitcoin bros.
Surely how strict you choose to be is likely a matter of preference, and sometimes we might not know exactly how the BTC prices and our stash size is going to play out, but if we put some kind of a tentative plan in place, then of course, we are in a better place to tweak it rather than if we have no plan at all or if we wing it with a play-it-by ear, loosey goosey outline of a tentative plan.
And, even if we believe that we might have a somewhat strict plan that has certain parameters and certain expectations, if we end up not following it strictly or maybe having some lose ends that end up starting to move against us, then there can be some disadvantages in having some of those lose ends, especially since we know that the BTC price can end up moving fast and then end up catching us off guard in one direction or the other.. so how strict is too strict and how lax is too lax is a matter of interpretation and perhaps better informed by experience (as you suggested).
I have probably had regrets at various points in each cycle in regards to some of the ways that I structure my various sells and some of my buys, but the system that I have really does put me in a pretty strong place of comfort even when some of the mistakes are being felt, there still can be quite a bit of zooming out in order to really be able to see that some of the parts that might seem bad or might seem less than preferable are still pretty damned good in the whole scheme of things when measuring the plusses as compared to the minuses, and surely some of that has to do with designing a system that errors on the side of accumulating and HODLing, and so far king daddy has performed quite well to satisfy, reward and not to punish very badly as long as us HODLers are mostly erroring in that direction.
Of course, there could be ways to look back and to second guess, but then some of those can become learning experiences - such as if I might have a system that sells on the way up and then buys on the way down, but if I don't sell enough or I buy back too soon, then there can be feelings of just wheel spinning and wasting a bunch of time without much change in the value of the holdings, after account for time and also accounting for various fees that can sometimes start to add up.
As far as your assessment of the current status of this particular cycle, I agree that it is feeling to be more bullish than usual, and just logistically, it seems to be difficult to understand from where all the coins are going to come, and yeah they are getting put into inferior products in which single entities are going to control a lot of coins.. so some of that can be scary even though at the same time our bags are inevitably going to get pumped in ways that we may well not be prepared for. .. so surely some guys are going to end up selling way too many of their coins too soon and maybe even experiencing a relatively great payoff in dollars, but they may well not really be advantaged by holding as many dollars as they end up holding, so surely we have to be careful regarding how we make our own calculations regarding whether to sell, how much to sell and how to valuate our sales..
And by the way, I cannot completely agree with you about the idea of just taking out as many dollars as we need because frequently we are better off to be trying to value at least in both dollars and bitcoin, future value versus present value.. and I still think that there are still so many ways that guys can go wrong by getting caught up in BTC spot price valuations,
and I am going to keep pumping the sustainable withdrawal tool and even the raking tool, even though the sustainable withdrawal tool seems to attempt to juxtapose spot price with 200-week moving average and the raking tool tries to account for just mere price movements that can also sometimes become outrageous, and we might feel that we under withdraw if we do not just plan to withdraw at various points along the way, and just work out the details later (whether we buy back or we just hang on to the various fiat that we end up cashing out).
We can get some frameworks for figuring out these kinds of matters and if we happen to have 94 BTC (maybe average price of $1k per BTC or maybe lower, but does it matter?) and we shave off along the way:
2 BTC at $92k,
2 BTC at $124k,
2 btc at $181k BTC,
2 BTC at $240k BTC,
2 BTC at $440k and
2 BTC at $780k,
we are not really even very prejudiced by the whole matter of selling some of our BTC at various cheaper price points because if the BTC price goes shooting up to $1 million and has no real correction, even in this scenario, we still have 82 BTC, to figure out what we are going to do with the remainder of them, and so we can hypothesize what that particular kind of selling on the way up scenario looks like and compare it to other possible scenarios, including that in the process of going up from $54k to $1 million, maybe the BTC price does not make it as high as we anticipated, so we could end up having a back-up plan that might shave a chunk of BTC at a certain price point - especially once we figure out that the price may or may not be going up further, and then let the matter ride out (and maybe we are wrong and maybe not?), and I personally feel quite a bit better to be employing BTC selling on the way up rather than waiting to see if the BTC price tops or where it might top when it is really difficult to figure out, even if it seems that all of the stars are aligned.. .and surely there is still power in having various supplemental plans at various points along the way and to have some flexibility, even if there might be some roughness and some flexibility built in to some of the strictness that might also already be in place within our plan.
If there is a woman out there who expects a $52k gift for Valentines' Day, avoid her like the J&J covid jab.
Fixed it for you.
This is not a good sign.
BBunny has turned anti-woman.
Snap out of it BBunny!!!!
and Share some morale-raising pics.
In my book, BBunny woman loving pics are way better than gay christmas cards.
Poll
