Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinPsycho]

If you're shorting bitcoin,STOP

this is investment advice

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[1714322645]

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[1714322645]

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[philipma1957]

We did get over 52,800.

Hoping for much higher numbers than 53k today.

Maybe 55k.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Another day, another AYH.

This never gets boring.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

We just hit an ATH

(in Japanese Yen - almost 8 million!)


 

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1758131157386903837

[criptoevangelista]

I remember posting about it, and maybe I gave it less than 5% odds?  I cannot remember, exactly.  But now the odds are likely getting greater, and greater and greater, and maybe even approaching 40% or more.  

I would hate to give $100k prior to the halvening as having more than 50% odds, but it is feeling quite easy right now, but I just hate taking various kinds of bullish BTC price moves for granted, even if currently we are witnessing a lot of ongoing and persistent buy pressure on a lot of the exchanges/markets, and it could well be the case that BTC prices have to go up an additional 2x or 3x within the coming months (before the halvening?  I don't know) just to accommodate the current ongoing and persistent BTC buying pressures..

and many of us who have already stacked a lot of cornz over the years are way ahead of this game of financial institutions getting in, including that we front run a lot of these current BIGGER players.. and say if some of us might have gotten 20 BTC over the years, and then between $80k and $150k we could shave off 1 or 2 of those BTC and still be in pretty good shape... I personally am not saying that I have that many BTC or even claiming to having more than 0.63 BTC.. .. but I know a relatively whimpy WO member who has 20 BTC, and he says that he is waiting for BTC prices to get to $10 million before he is going to start shaving some of his previously thought to be whimpy BTC stash. .and I think he is somewhat against selling, so I am not sure if he even has any kind of exact plan.. and maybe there is no need to have any exact plan as long as the BTC are secured.. and .. .. so yeah.. results are going to vary between members, even in these here parts.

I don't think anyone expected 100 thousand dollars at the time of the bet, he was very bold, but perhaps he already had a much broader vision than us, he possibly already imagined some scenario based on ETFs that, in a way, generate a very large demand for people in traditional markets with a risk appetite.

Gold made a very explosive move after the launch of its EFT in 2004, as we can see in the chart below:




We just need to know now if this explosive increase in prices is based on speculative reasons, or if it is a solid increase based on supply/demand based on this opening of the market to thousands of investors through ETFs, or if it is just the market getting ahead of itself and pricing the price based on the next halving

An action plan is very individual, I still believe that today anyone with a minimum knowledge of the bitcoin cycle can very well radically change their standard of living, they just need to be patient and responsible.

[xhomerx10]

We just hit an ATH

(in Japanese Yen - almost 8 million!)


 

 The Japanese must feel like they live in a third-world country with such a shitty currency.   I wonder how they can afford to travel?  Europe must seem unbelievably expensive to them.

[criptoevangelista]

We just hit an ATH

(in Japanese Yen - almost 8 million!)


 

 The Japanese must feel like they live in a third-world country with such a shitty currency.   I wonder how they can afford to travel?  Europe must seem unbelievably expensive to them.

So imagine the Argentines, in which bitcoin reached an all-time high even when it was in the bear market

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

We just hit an ATH

(in Japanese Yen - almost 8 million!)


 

 The Japanese must feel like they live in a third-world country with such a shitty currency.   I wonder how they can afford to travel?  Europe must seem unbelievably expensive to them.

So imagine the Argentines, in which bitcoin reached an all-time high even when it was in the bear market

Speaking of Argentina, I know I bashed the shit out of them during the World Cup,
but I have to say this was a very interesting watch the other day, it came up in my YouTube recommendations.

Never seen Madonna perform so well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtHBwZykkOE

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

We just need to know now if this explosive increase in prices is based on speculative reasons, or if it is a solid increase based on supply/demand based on this opening of the market to thousands of investors through ETFs, or if it is just the market getting ahead of itself and pricing the price based on the next halving

You may be correct that there are always chances that some kind of substantial and meaningful correction could take place, and in this particular price rise we are likely measuring since about mid-October 2023 when the Blackrock's ETF application was clearly announced.. and so the upwards BTC price action has been pretty much ongoing and relentless ever since.

Personally, I believe that is it not really necessary to know if it is fake or not, because I doubt that we are having a blow off top right now or having a couple more years of down or sideways, but hey guys can believe what they like, and for you, probably you should make sure that you are ongoingly stacking rather than waiting for dips that might not happen, and sure you are likely at a disadvantage if you are coming to bitcoin at any time around your forum registration, and surely there could be scenarios that you are just forced to continue to buy as the BTC price is going up.. and maybe the BTC price will come back down to these levels, and maybe it won't.

Another problem that newbies have is cashflow.. so the cash only comes in so rapidly, and maybe they are in a worse situation if they are in college or some kind of status in which they are not earning much if any income that goes beyond their living expenses (also known as discretionary/disposable income that they would be able to use for investing in something like bitcoin).

An action plan is very individual, I still believe that today anyone with a minimum knowledge of the bitcoin cycle can very well radically change their standard of living, they just need to be patient and responsible.

I have no dispute with any of this, yet at the same time, I think that there is value in front-loading (if you have the money) and also DCA - and buying the dip as long as you had already front-loaded your investment into BTC... but yeah, each person has to find his own balance based on his own circumstances, including considering the 9 considerations that I frequently mention.

These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include:
1)   your cashflow,
2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated,
3)   your other investments (including an emergency fund and/or other purposes that cash reserves might be held),
4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments,
5)   your timeline,
6)   your risk tolerance,
7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),
8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,
9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.)

These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances.

[criptoevangelista]

We just hit an ATH

(in Japanese Yen - almost 8 million!)


 

 The Japanese must feel like they live in a third-world country with such a shitty currency.   I wonder how they can afford to travel?  Europe must seem unbelievably expensive to them.

So imagine the Argentines, in which bitcoin reached an all-time high even when it was in the bear market

Speaking of Argentina, I know I bashed the shit out of them during the World Cup,
but I have to say this was a very interesting watch the other day, it came up in my YouTube recommendations.

Never seen Madonna perform so well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtHBwZykkOE

Saudi Arabia?

Madonna was very in tune with this performance, the Argentine people are very excited during musical performances.

Lately I've been listening to a lot of Social Distortion, if you like a bit of rock I highly recommend it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFa4VnuHjYo

https://youtu.be/vKQXVGF2M2s?si=H4q_Maj6lY_83bVj

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW4PLTlQsgw

[AlcoHoDL]

Feels like the chopper's gonna vroom vroom tonight.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[jojo69]

[Phil_S]

https://x.com/clownworld_/status/1757819491847975041?s=46

Feels like watching reacher….


Also yesterday been watching Argylle
Another 0/10 movie
What a joke

Reacher 2 was surprisingly bad...

[SamReomo]

That sounds pretty dumb for someone who ONLY has around 1 BTC to be selling part of his BTC at $80k because he bought at $16k..  The guy is going to need more than just the fact that he is 4x in profits.  We need more details.  What is his income?  Is the guy still accumulating?  Is he accumulating BTC in order to get into dollars? What's his annual income?  Even if his annual income is $10k per year, $80k would ONLY be 8x his annual salary... I question scenarios in which $80k would be enough.. and even if the guy had 2 BTC, that is $160k, that also seems like there would not be too many scenarios in which that would be enough.. but hey.. sure add some facts to flesh this out besides a mere assertion that his seemingly fairly whimpy holdings are 4x in profits.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to suggest that 1 BTC might not be a lot in some circumstances, but it surely does not seem to be an amount that is worthy shaving off some of it absent some further facts to show why it might be justified.

Also don't get me wrong, you have discretion to do dumb things, but I need more than just the idea of buying at $16k and selling at $80k...

For example, if the guy started buying in 2021, and his annual salary was around $20k, and so maybe he bought $30k worth of bitcoin through out 2021 with an average cost per BTC of around $40k.. so he got around 0.75  BTC, and then maybe the next two years, he put together another $40k and he bought about another 1.5 BTC.. so then when he gets into this year, he is starting to feel overinvested... so maybe in those kinds of circumstances, he could justify starting to shave off parts of his BTC holdings... his total of 2.25 BTC cost him about $70k (average cost of about $31,100 per BTC) and they are currently worth about $117k, and so nearly 6x his salary, and since he got into his investment so rashly, he might even already be willing to start to shave off some of his holdings.. because he is feeling over exposed to BTC, but he still might not feel like he is in a position to really shave off a lot because he feels that he has enough BTC, but he need to bring more balance to his life because he's got most of his networth in BTC. .. and yeah, maybe he already has an emergency fund and other parts of his financial life in order so he might be able to just ride out the investment, but he might also want to start to structure either to stop buying so much or maybe to structure some small amounts of sales as the BTC price goes up..

I was basically trying to say that the ones who have more than 1 Bitcoin can make some good profits if they sell out some of their holdings. Let's say if someone has accumulated around 2 Bitcoin or 4 Bitcoin during the dip of $16k and when continued buying Bitcoin when its price was around $25k, and they might have accumulated some Bitcoin during each dip by following a DCA strategy or dip buying strategy whatever we name it. Then such people can actually make some good profits if they sell some of their holdings at $80k let's say if someone who has 2 Bitcoin and he has bought those Bitcoin with average price of $20k a Bitcoin then that person can sell 1 Bitcoin at $80k. He bought 2 Bitcoin for $40k and now he's selling only 1 Bitcoin for $80k which means he already got his own invested money back and made 100% profit from his initial investment.

Now, let's say the same guy holds his 1 Bitcoin which is almost a free investment for him now because he already recovered his initial investment and even got 100% profit. He doesn't need to sell that Bitcoin now because he can now wait for huge intensity of the bull run where price of Bitcoin might cross $100k a coin or way more than that or he may hold that Bitcoin until Bitcoin reaches $1M. The same guy now has around $80k in his account which he can reinvest in Bitcoin or withdraw some of it to fulfill his other needs. Let's say the guy decides to withdraw $10k out of those $80k and now he has $70k which he can reinvest in Bitcoin again.

Now let's suppose that Bitcoin reaches $120k at the highest intensity of this bull run and once the bull run is over then Bitcoin can dip back to $60k-$50k values. Just for example if the same  guy buys Bitcoin at $52k then he's increased his Bitcoin portfolio a little bit and also made $10k extra which he used for his other needs. That's case of the ones with just 2 Bitcoin what if the same person had 20 Bitcoin then he might end up making enough profit by selling his 10 Bitcoin at $80k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Moreno233]

Assuming price makes an all time high before halving, what is expected from the price movement post halving? It is really looking difficult knowing what to expect from the market post halving because what we are seeing is different from price history of Bitcoin.