Biodom
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March 05, 2024, 07:46:12 PM Last edit: March 05, 2024, 08:01:14 PM by Biodom |
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The righteousness of this correction (in my mind) is disturbed by a mental image of Gareth Soloway being pleased by this.
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dragonvslinux
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March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM Last edit: March 05, 2024, 07:57:58 PM by dragonvslinux Merited by vapourminer (1), Paashaas (1), d_eddie (1) |
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So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...
My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much, especially the more parabolic the price has gone. I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K, as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.
Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs. Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional. If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K, I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.
So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)
More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from, which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016). So I'm not expecting much different here, unlike a lot of other speculative theories knocking around, from $100K within X amount of days or my estimation of dropping to around $30K; the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved. Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.
Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively. Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points. Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).
Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever). If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type, I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.
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Biodom
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I don't think that average mining cost is 50K/btc right now. This says that it is 63K, which seems too high. Philip?
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MERlT
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March 05, 2024, 07:55:52 PM |
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So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...
My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much, especially the more parabolic the price has gone. I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K, as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.
Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs. Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional. If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K, I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.
So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)
More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from, which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016). So I'm not expecting much different here, unlike a lot of other speculative theories knocking around, from $100K within X amount of days or my estimation of dropping to around $30K; the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved. Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell.
Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively. Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points. Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness.
Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero conseuences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever). If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type, I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, LMAO
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bitserve
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Self made HODLER ✓
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March 05, 2024, 07:58:59 PM |
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Finally a "decent" dump. Let's just finish clearing all those overleveraged longs so that we can continue with the party, please.
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Krubster
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March 05, 2024, 08:01:10 PM |
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Is this the 10k god candle I was promised?
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ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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March 05, 2024, 08:01:15 PM |
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ExplanationChartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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El duderino_
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BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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March 05, 2024, 08:02:54 PM Merited by fillippone (3) |
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Just a 20% ish haircut
We are used to get those…. Meanwhile watching season 2 of Halo and I like it.
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coolcoinz
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March 05, 2024, 08:07:01 PM |
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The righteousness of this correction (in my mind) is disturbed by a mental image of Gareth Soloway being pleased by this fact.
I'm pleased by the fact that Soloway waited more than a year for $10k bitcoin This correction is just showing us how much leverage there was and if you look at, for instance, 2020 and what happened when we touched $20k, we had a week of lower lows that ended at 17570, so ~12% down from the old ATH. That would be around $10k this time from the last ATH, if we were to repeat it. Pretty normal price action if you ask me.
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dragonvslinux
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March 05, 2024, 08:07:36 PM |
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I don't think that average mining cost is 50K/btc right now. This says that it is 63K, which seems too high. Philip? Sure, yesterday it was $63.3K, the day before was $44.7K. On February 18th it was even $23.5K. I was going by a general average, and the last month looks like it was around $50K give or take... Philip will tell you that the calculation is complete nonsense, for many reason, and I won't argue over that. It's more-or-less based on price of mining with non-renewable energy (basically right now, you could mine virtually anywhere and in any way and be profitable, cost of equipment aside). So naturally those mining using renewable energy are barely effected, if at all, as there mining costs are 50-75% less I imagine, but for miners relying on non-renewable energy, they will no doubt be switching off machines post-halving (at current mining cost), as per every halving. Others will simply go out of business for good. LMAO
Just please don't cry if you get rekt. Confusion is OK, but at least don't pretend like there were alternative theories to hitting $1 million per coin next week. I still hold the majority of Bitcoin
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vroom
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a Cray can run an endless loop in under 4 hours
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March 05, 2024, 08:26:51 PM |
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Having choppers every $1k upward movement may start to feel a wee bit nutso.. and at some point the increment is going to need to expand.
yes, you are right! I plan to continue this 1k steps until 100k and then start with 10k steps. But if you guys think that there is to much chopper spam I will start to make bigger steps sooner. Let me know!
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OutOfMemory
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March 05, 2024, 08:27:16 PM |
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Just happened to request account deletion at an EU regulated exchange service, which they followed after a short Email reply. I was informed that they will keep my data in an encrypted database for 10 years because of various laws demanding to keep records of business data. However, i registered to this exchange service as a beginner in 2017, just to find out that they charge you the amount of fiat for the coins you wanted to buy by the time they receive your SEPA payment on their bank account. I found this useless and embarassing for dealing with Bitcoin at its given volatility and never used the service for any transaction, settled with a less known broker service where you pay the "now" price and get the coins after they got your money. Pretty fucked up, because their duty to have detailed business data ready over the course of 10 years directly interferes with "the right to be forgotten" of EU GDPR Art. 17 & 19 Well in this case, you are forgotten after 10 years. How messed up is that?! As of the correction of the overheated BTC market, zooming out is the way to go and make things look more positive again. If i would have had access to the part of my coins on exchanges, i would have sold a small amount to get in at $5k lower or so, but i was away and i do not do anything Bitcoin related from my smartphone other than price checking and WO reading. Sucks a wee bit, but i'm not really grumpy about it. EDIT: Checking my stats i'm still up 10% since a week, 45% since a month. Pretty good in the face of another Bitcoin death
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OgNasty
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
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March 05, 2024, 08:31:18 PM |
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Just a 20% ish haircut
We are used to get those…. Meanwhile watching season 2 of Halo and I like it.
Even being used to it, it still hurts. This is pretty typical behavior after a market top, which is concerning. Ignoring the outside factors and just being a chartist, I would say we will most certainly gap back down to $59K and retest which way the market wants to go there. If it defends the double bottom, it could go back up. I think the market wants to go down now though. If I were a trader I wouldn’t try to fight it. As a holder I just have to try and not panic if we head all the way down into the 40s, knowing more money and a halving is on the way soon.
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OutOfMemory
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Just a 20% ish haircut
We are used to get those…. Meanwhile watching season 2 of Halo and I like it.
Even being used to it, it still hurts. This is pretty typical behavior after a market top, which is concerning. Ignoring the outside factors and just being a chartist, I would say we will most certainly gap back down to $59K and retest which way the market wants to go there. If it defends the double bottom, it could go back up. I think the market wants to go down now though. If I were a trader I wouldn’t try to fight it. As a holder I just have to try and not panic if we head all the way down into the 40s, knowing more money and a halving is on the way soon. In fact, hodling is max easy. You do nothing in the face of anything. No fear, no panic, no decisions to meet. Go figure. EDIT: Problems start after you decide to sell. Questions arise: When? How much? Where? As long as you buy&hodl everything becomes a no-brainer.
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dragonvslinux
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March 05, 2024, 08:39:48 PM |
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Just a 20% ish haircut
We are used to get those…. Meanwhile watching season 2 of Halo and I like it.
Even being used to it, it still hurts. This is pretty typical behavior after a market top, which is concerning. Ignoring the outside factors and just being a chartist, I would say we will most certainly gap back down to $59K and retest which way the market wants to go there. If it defends the double bottom, it could go back up. I think the market wants to go down now though. If I were a trader I wouldn’t try to fight it. As a holder I just have to try and not panic if we head all the way down into the 40s, knowing more money and a halving is on the way soon. Just to say we did basically just close the gap down to $59K already, and now in-between the Weekly and Monthly closing high prices, so for now it looks like nothing more than flushing out some over-leveraged long positions. Even with a -14% drop, there hasn't been any bearish follow through (below $60K), so it looks like a healthy correction from a charting point of view (on the face of it at least). For some people this was probably the dip they were waiting for, given that price remains in a strong uptrend and has recently broken ATH. Naturally there is still the expectation of higher prices in the near future given new ATHs have already been made, even if initially rejected, at least above $60K that is. Whether than happens or not is a different story to the speculative belief of course, but usually plays out.
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Toxic2040
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March 05, 2024, 08:40:24 PM |
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well...you guys are tough....tougher than me....that 12 minutes of a new ATH did nothing to salve the wounds of hodling all these years
14.3% dump....looks like we touched under $60kish...it will probably take a few days for the waves from that to quit sloshing around
pretty normal i suppose...will check back after the weekly close and see where we are at
carry on
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Gachapin
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bitcoin retard
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March 05, 2024, 08:45:29 PM |
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Phil_S
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We choose to go to the moon
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March 05, 2024, 08:46:48 PM |
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It's all good, no big deal.
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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March 05, 2024, 08:48:27 PM |
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The new ATH, probably for a brief time before it is breached again, is $69210 according to Bitstamp.
Cheers Gentlemen!
and it is 69,324 on coinbase. As I never saw a vote making bitstamp the king of wo Either way it is a good number. when 70k? Fuck Coinbase. You must be new here.so an all time high and declared dead on the same day?
nice
Ya, funny how a few days ago this price would have had people screaming that this is a monster rally. Now suddenly it’s all over and everyone should sell. While I don’t doubt there will be a correction here, I think it will be short lived. There is just too much money flooding in and the halving will be here in no time. Correct post Except………… nobody but absolutely nobody says anyone should be selling 😅 OgNasty cannot help his lil selfie. to exaggerate a wee bit
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BitcoinBunny
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Far, Far, Far Right Thug
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March 05, 2024, 09:02:23 PM |
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I don't know whether you know this or not, but you only have your crypto casino because I made that possible. I'm what counts out here, not your fuckin Ethereum or your fuckin Doggie Coins! And what the fuck are you doing selling me anyhow? You know I get calls from back home every fuckin day, they think you went bat shit!
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