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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26370755 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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April 10, 2024, 01:04:22 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1)

@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/

Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.

THANK YOU FOR POINTING OUT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.

If middle class has five tiers

1 highest middle class
2
3
4
5 lowest middle class

I am a 3 or a 4.

My wife and I take home 7.3k in pension monthly  it is good money, rising costs eat into it.

If we want to take home 10k monthly she could make her 401k an annuity.

But the scale of homes and taxes where I live are costly.
We will likely move to a nicer place in a different state.

I could lower my taxes by 1000 a month get a bigger house and have enough left over money to buy a btc maybe 2.

We are older 67 and 68
her lungs were covid damaged
I have diabetes. So we would like to spend the next 5,10,15 years left having fun.

So spending btc may happen for us.
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April 10, 2024, 03:24:14 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)



Only 10 days left.
La la la la la la la.
IYKYK.

#haiquickie

Meh LaLaLand
That was not my cup of tea…
Not for haiku use

Tongue

It's not La La Land!
Just a coiner's excitement.
IYKYK.

#replyku
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April 10, 2024, 04:26:08 AM

Takes one to know one.
So, be decent and don't swear,
Or you'll be Bat-slapped!

and gfy....you ARE a pretentious cunt     Kiss
hahahahahaha

Takes one to know one.   Tongue

I blame toxicmoxic for the devolution of the above interaction..



a decent recovery on the weekly candle has bitcoin well positioned for continuation of the bullish trend with the halving a few less than two weeks away  

FTFY.



You will thank me later, when you may well end up realizing the answer to: "why is everything happening sooner than expected?"


Wow!! This is really encouraging, I think there's more to this sentence it isn't just an ordinary one and i look. forward to be among the people that will thank you later.
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April 10, 2024, 05:08:07 AM
Merited by Lucius (1), bitebits (1)

@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/

$6,666 per month is $80k per year.  Of course, I am using that as a kind of entry-level, and I might have to change it later, but I think that it is good enough for now.  Prior to March 2020, I was using $3,333, which would have been $40k per year, so I doubled it, and yeah, maybe the $40k was also low, but it is somewhat considered what we used to aspire to become.. millionnaire status, and yeah now millionaire status is $2million, but I think it would be too crazy and out of touch to start to try to suggest that average normies should conclude that the minimum they need is $10 million status.

Another thing is that anyone who is getting largely passive income (absent just keeping track of the accounting) should consider that to be quite liberating as compared to having to maintain a job, yeah sure anyone who does not have a job is going to have more time to spend money, but merely having more time does not necessarily mean that the person has to spend more money, so they should be able to get some kind of grasp if they had an $70k to $80k level job at the time of pulling the fuck you lever, then they already know how to live on $70k to $80k, and yeah if they feel that they need more of a cushion than they can do that... even though surely I think that BTC's historical CAGR and likely continued CAGR is way more liberating than some folks might assume, especially if they measure it in reasonable ways (such as using the 200 WMA - rather than getting too much distracted into the noise of greatly volatile BTC spot prices - even though surely they will be selling whatever  their BTC at s[pot price, but that is also likely to be liberating since they are likely going to have cushions beyond what preferably would be their 200-WMA value measuring stick).

Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.

Yeah, if you have a higher starting point, then do what you like.

There are also guys who think that they are rich as fuck with ONLY 1/10th the amount which under traditional systems would be a $200k principle and a $666 monthly withdrawal authorization (and yeah with bitcoin they can achieve that $666 per month with even lower levels of principle like I mentioned either $80k if using 10% per year withdrawal rate and $67k if using a 12% withdrawal rate.

Come on Biodom, go with the flow, and stop quibbling about those kinds of discretionary matters that guys should be able to figure out, and yeah, I don't know what your numbers are, but you may well be causing your lil selfie to work way more years than you need to because you neither recognize/appreciate the power of bitcoin's CAGR and/or its likelihood of continuing to provide such power, even if you are trying to keep some reasonable level of cushion.. . .and yeah, I am already starting to argue that 20-ish BTC is enough to get to fuck you status.. which has to feel good for some folks, but they still have to figure out how to properly calculate it.. and subsequently how to manage their withdrawals including that if they might be nervous they might ease into their withdraws since there is going to be potential variance in how much they would be able to withdraw that goes beyond their needs in times that BTC's spot price is way above the 200-WMA, and there might be preferences (but not necessarily mandatory) of more frugality once the BTC price is below 25% above the 200-WMA.

So spending btc may happen for us.

Don't kid yourself.  You don't hardly have any BTC to spend  because you have been spending it all along.

Sure, I am not going to blame you now for wanting to spend it, since you should already be in the spending phase of your life... so you likely just have to figure out which things to spend first and why, and likely if you have other sources, of income that are sufficient, then you save the BTC for the last (or the least of your spending). In other words, it is way the fuck better to be getting your $2k per month from your 401k then to draw if from bitcoin.. by the way $2k per month is about a $600k 401k (if you are spending around 4%), adnd cif you spend that at around 4%, you should be alble to spend that forever, even though the dollar is going to be worth less and less and less, but your principle should largely stay at or more $600k so that you can continue to spend $2k per month.

In regards to drawing on bitcoin, there are way more creative ways to be able to draw more as long as you calculate it right, and you should be able to draw 10% to 12% and to still more than maintain its dollar value. ... but yeah, sure you have to get it up to a certain amount, so I don't want to give financial advices but $600k in bitcoin (valued at its 200-WMA valuation) is probably more than 4x more power than the same investment in traditional investments. ..

Of course, you have to figure out what you want to do an how you want to allocate to make sure your bitcoin are in such a good state, if all that you need is $2k per month income off of BTC, then right now likely could have right around 7 BTC as your starting point for that.. which would be a 12% withdrawal rate.. so long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200WMA.  If the BTC spot price is at lower amounts then either you do not withdraw or you withdraw at a lower rate as I describe in my sustainable withdrawal tool. powered by bitmover.. of course, you are still responsible for figuring out the details and the applicability of how to apply these kinds of ideas to youor situation.
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April 10, 2024, 05:29:46 AM

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April 10, 2024, 06:56:00 AM

@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/

Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.


I have diabetes. So we would like to spend the next 5,10,15 years left having fun.

So spending btc may happen for us.


Hoping for so many more years to you ... and damn yes, have the fun of your lives, travel, live in the place state you want and listen to no one...

you have hodled, worked with BTC what most of the people didn't, take your fruits whenever you feel like it.
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April 10, 2024, 06:58:13 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

Coffe in hand, 69+ views...

Observing where we go from here.
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April 10, 2024, 07:37:36 AM

Good morning, WO!

I certainly hope everyone sold their chairs for Bitcoin by now.
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April 10, 2024, 08:21:30 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

He allready dit it.


source: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/man-raffles-place-sitting-invisible-chair-033500353.html
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April 10, 2024, 10:54:53 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

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April 10, 2024, 10:56:38 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1)

Read/listen to the book 'Die with Zero' - Bill Perkins. Working for money (or in our case, waiting for Bitcoin to go up) is a trade-off against your only real asset your life time.
Memories and experiences you have earlier in your life have greater value than the ones you have later because of the benefits they give after you have had them. Sharing and using, wisdom and memories both have significant value to your overall life happiness. (I think travel experiences often give great returns.).

Think about your grandparents, as you grow older, you will end up wanting less and are happy to stay at home, in fact, health issues mean you probably can't travel easily anymore, and this is when those earlier 'experience' investments in your life reach maturity.  Bizarrely,  living in the moment is an investment in your future. So the earlier you have these experiences the greater the return.
Dying with zero doesn't mean forgetting about looking after dependents or risking running out of money, but it helped me think about getting the correct balance between living in the moment and thinking longer term.

In the case of Bitcoin,  for me it was about setting very ambitious objectives about the things I wanted (property, cars etc, but whatever is reasonable to you with your current BTC holding) , and when Bitcoin was at a sufficient price,  and I would still have at least 50% of my BTC remaining, I pulled the trigger. (actually, my trigger price was $42k, in the last bull cycle, and I part-exited at $55K, and paid all the tax due.)
But I always live by, "Never have no Bitcoin."

I must read this book. Thanks for sharing. I agree with everything you said. Specially about experiencies. I think "buying experiences" and "buying freedom" (i.e. retiring early or getting a job which lets you live you life fully) are the two most important things money can buy.

I also made a large sell-off in ~60k in 2021... I rebought everything again lol

I recently saw a similar study , showing the age of death x age of retirement, which made me think a lot.


https://faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/COE/gutub/English_Misc/Retire1.htm?s=09

I think the study is somewhat exaggerated, but there is some truth in it.

Quote
4. Conclusion and Recommendations

The most precious, creative and innovative period in your life is the 10-year period around the age of 32. Plan your career path to use this precious 10-year period wisely and effectively to produce your greatest achievements in your life.

The pace of innovations and technology advances is getting faster and faster and is forcing everybody to compete fiercely at the Internet speed on the information super-highways. The highly productive and highly efficient workplace in USA is a pressure-cooker and a high-speed battleground for highly creative and dynamic young people to compete and to flourish.

However, when you get older, you should plan your career path and financial matter so that you can retire comfortably at the age of 55 or earlier to enjoy your long, happy and leisure retirement life into your golden age of 80s and beyond. In retirement, you can still enjoy some fun work of great interest to you and of great values to the society and the community, but at a part-time leisure pace on your own term.

 On the other hand, if you are not able to get out of the pressure-cooker or the high-speed battleground at the age of 55 and “have” to keep on working very hard until the age of 65 or older before your retirement, then you probably will die within 18 months of retirement. By working very hard in the pressure cooker for 10 more years beyond the age of 55, you give up at least 20 years of your life span on average.
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