Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Explanation
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good girl boy... 70k is a very fine number

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[bitcoinPsycho]

71 eek

[Biodom]

Read/listen to the book 'Die with Zero' - Bill Perkins. Working for money (or in our case, waiting for Bitcoin to go up) is a trade-off against your only real asset your life time.
Memories and experiences you have earlier in your life have greater value than the ones you have later because of the benefits they give after you have had them. Sharing and using, wisdom and memories both have significant value to your overall life happiness. (I think travel experiences often give great returns.).

Think about your grandparents, as you grow older, you will end up wanting less and are happy to stay at home, in fact, health issues mean you probably can't travel easily anymore, and this is when those earlier 'experience' investments in your life reach maturity.  Bizarrely,  living in the moment is an investment in your future. So the earlier you have these experiences the greater the return.
Dying with zero doesn't mean forgetting about looking after dependents or risking running out of money, but it helped me think about getting the correct balance between living in the moment and thinking longer term.

In the case of Bitcoin,  for me it was about setting very ambitious objectives about the things I wanted (property, cars etc, but whatever is reasonable to you with your current BTC holding) , and when Bitcoin was at a sufficient price,  and I would still have at least 50% of my BTC remaining, I pulled the trigger. (actually, my trigger price was $42k, in the last bull cycle, and I part-exited at $55K, and paid all the tax due.)
But I always live by, "Never have no Bitcoin."

I must read this book. Thanks for sharing. I agree with everything you said. Specially about experiencies. I think "buying experiences" and "buying freedom" (i.e. retiring early or getting a job which lets you live you life fully) are the two most important things money can buy.

I also made a large sell-off in ~60k in 2021... I rebought everything again lol

I recently saw a similar study , showing the age of death x age of retirement, which made me think a lot.


https://faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/COE/gutub/English_Misc/Retire1.htm?s=09

I think the study is somewhat exaggerated, but there is some truth in it.

4. Conclusion and Recommendations

The most precious, creative and innovative period in your life is the 10-year period around the age of 32. Plan your career path to use this precious 10-year period wisely and effectively to produce your greatest achievements in your life.

The pace of innovations and technology advances is getting faster and faster and is forcing everybody to compete fiercely at the Internet speed on the information super-highways. The highly productive and highly efficient workplace in USA is a pressure-cooker and a high-speed battleground for highly creative and dynamic young people to compete and to flourish.

However, when you get older, you should plan your career path and financial matter so that you can retire comfortably at the age of 55 or earlier to enjoy your long, happy and leisure retirement life into your golden age of 80s and beyond. In retirement, you can still enjoy some fun work of great interest to you and of great values to the society and the community, but at a part-time leisure pace on your own term.

 On the other hand, if you are not able to get out of the pressure-cooker or the high-speed battleground at the age of 55 and “have” to keep on working very hard until the age of 65 or older before your retirement, then you probably will die within 18 months of retirement. By working very hard in the pressure cooker for 10 more years beyond the age of 55, you give up at least 20 years of your life span on average.

The quoted study is weird, to put it lightly.
I guess..if you continue the "trend', if you retire at 30, then you would live to a 100 or more  

I found several studies that point to the opposite:
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-e&q=age+of+retirement+and+age+of+death

On the top of the page:
"Those retiring at age 65 or greater have an 11-percentage-point greater probability of surviving to age 80 than those retiring at exactly age 62."

The latter is bad statistics as well because maybe those who retire at 62 are simply sicker, on average.

The point about greatest productivity around age 32-this is mostly true (basically, from 27 to 37). Most, but not all, of scientific achievements were done roughly in that age period and if you extend it a bit more to 25-40, then probably at least 90% of discoveries were made by the people at those ages.

However, you don't have to retire once your peak is over...sometimes people simply move to other venues and/or teach or manage a group of younger colleagues (graduate students and postdocs).
You aim to compensate with increased age-related wisdom for a decrease in the "brilliance" of your ideas.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[sirazimuth]

I know this post is late but just returned from my excursion
to totality land. The internet was very spotty up there, so didn’t bother
posting till now back home.
This was using a Canon on a tripod.
The real experience is the moment of totality when one takes off the
eclipse shades and sees it in all it’s glory. 4 minutes of mind numbing awesomeness. Hard to put to words.
 We cranked up the “2001 A Space Oddessy” opening theme at
the moment of totality. (“turn it up louder bro!!”)  I even got weirdly emotional.
F**king absolutely amazing life experience.



GO BITCOIN

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

lots of 70s look good.

70 has proven very tough to pass. maybe by next week

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Zeunerts]

Well, clearly it WILL happen.  


https://www.reuters.com/technology/grayscale-ceo-sees-bitcoin-etf-outflows-reaching-equilibrium-2024-04-10/

Outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.P), may be reaching an equilibrium after months of investor selling,
Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments, told Reuters on the latest episode of Inside ETFs.

Maybe there is some truth to what Sonnenshein is saying. Worst day for GBTC yesterday, so far.





Last 24 hours of #Bitcoin have been absolute madness

Hot CPI Print - everything dumps
#Bitcoin Catches a Bid
GBTC Stops selling
Everybody Else buying
13F Filings show Banks are buying ETFs
Reuters reports China ETFs about to be approved


SOURCE; https://x.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1778236782875906295

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

Lol at the headlines. Inflation is .1% above expectations.
And when you sell bitcoin because inflation is higher, you really don't get it.

yep it looks like I will be getting some cheap corn today or tomorrow.

Yeah, and waiting for lower prices might not be very good an idea.  Lower BTC prices are far from guaranteed.

ETFs -> n00bs
n00bs -> weak hands

Gotta shake em out every cycle.

The shaking also goes in the other direction, from time to time there is no more coins to shake... especially when the demand is much higher than the supply.

But yeah, sure, expect prices to drop from here when the have already been consolidating around these prices (by the way in noman's land to boot) for over a month.

Good luck with your expectations of down before up.  You will likely need it.

Bought some today around $68100
With the one day chart,  I plan to start taking taking profits around $73K.

That is pretty dumb.

[OgNasty]

lots of 70s look good.

70 has proven very tough to pass. maybe by next week

70s are starting to feel boring. Hard to believe… I wouldn’t be surprised if we made another leg up soon. More and more markets are getting opened up to Bitcoin. There’s such a tidal wave of fiat on the way I wouldn’t be surprised no matter how high the price goes in the coming year. $100K is starting to feel like a conservative estimate.

[bitebits]

I was thinking about the following hypothetical the other day:

Let's assume that bitcoin goes to 100-300K (let's say, 200K average) this cycle and somewhere along the line you sell a substantial % to invest in property, luxuries, etc ( whichever you choose).
In 10 years afterwards, bitcoin goes to 5 mil, which means that you only "captured" just 4% of the potential value.

How would you feel about it? I guess, it would also depend on the remainder (that you didn't sell), but still.

Personally, I know that years later, I am not particularly fond of my decisions to sell AMZN, AAPL and TSLA early, even though I made very nice gains on them.
Sometimes, I consider these occurancies as my investment follies, but, again, you cannot be 100% efficient.

Of course, it is possible to NEVER sell btc and, basically, put this decision on the shoulders of descendants, but you cannot guarantee that they would be wise about it, right?
At least, I can't.

At some point, I would have to start to spend btc and this point is coming relatively soon.
Alas, to spend even a relatively small amount of btc on things like kitchen remodeling causes a bit of mixed feelings on my part as I contemplate the scenarios described above.
That could be one expensive kitchen 5-10 years down the road.
Withdrawals from IRA are taxable and I put all my stables back into the market during 2023.
I would probably do a mix of "things", but don't want to take on HELOC or anything like this.
Decisions, decisions...

Borrow against your bitcoin, no capital gains tax either. That is how rich people do it I am reading. Now I would not trust some random new startup to facilitate this but fine against IBIT in your brokerage account.

sounds like a not-your-keys-not-your-coins situation to me...

What, you selling your corn including covering for CGT?

Well, I think that's exactly the thing. I have corn, you have an IOU (ETF).

And do you think it's possible to go from real BTC into an ETF without selling BTC first? I suppose you'll have to pay CGT there too right?


That being said I actually might consider risking part of my stash for a never ending credit... as long BTC goes up forever... Laura  

No you don't have bitcoin when you sell it for dollars. And you would have to sell more of it to cover for taxes. Borrowing against your assets is how rich people do it, you do you.

Since we are into the subject of IOU's you seem to dislike, can you explain what a dollar is?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[bitcoinPsycho]

73k in one hour