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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371784 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
OgNasty
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April 20, 2024, 06:48:01 PM

The fees are very high, I read that it is because of the launch of something called RUNE, (I don't know what it is about)... but I will probably have to accumulate some BTC from DCA on an exchange before withdrawing... unfortunately. I hope things get back to normal soon.

Does anyone have any alternative to this, of keeping some BTC in an exchange for a while? before withdrawing to the wallet? I don't think there's much to do except wait


Withdraw sats over the Lignting network. Kraken and Cash App support it and even Coinbase is finally working on it. Zero fees and instant, even today.

LOL. I’m guessing you haven’t actually used Lightning recently… I’m seeing plenty of people complaining about channel costs and failed transactions. You’re better off using a shitcoin.

The beauty of this terribly managed fee market is that nobody can afford to move BTC to exchanges, so the weekend should be pretty quiet.
Make sure you back up your wallet regularly! Unlike a bank account, nobody can help you if you lose access to your BTC.
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April 20, 2024, 08:23:17 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Happy 420, guys!
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April 20, 2024, 09:15:34 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), sirazimuth (1), aesma (1), goldkingcoiner (1)

Happy 420, guys!

 My local pizza place has the spirit!

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April 20, 2024, 09:27:05 PM
Last edit: April 20, 2024, 09:43:51 PM by sirazimuth
Merited by vapourminer (1), OutOfMemory (1)

OT alert... because that's what I do....

You can now all sing along bros. Track released...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63942210#msg63942210

https://soundcloud.com/sirazimuth/totality6

GO BITCOIN






Totality in Tonality  Cool
I like the production, timbre of voice(s) with those energic accents, clean guitar sound, overall dynamics.
Well done, almost sounds like a live studio recording (on the headphones).


Thanx bro. It is almost live. (no punch-ins)
I was gonna add some bells and whistles trax, but then thought, naaah, I got keep it simple, so in the (another reality) event I play it live solo, it won't sound too different.



Happy 4/20 bros.

Fire 'em up. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.  etc etc...

I ate a gummy.   zzzzzzz
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April 20, 2024, 11:35:35 PM

Suddenly appears
A #haiku for the halving
Self-referential








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April 21, 2024, 12:40:41 AM

ChartBuddy's Daily Wall Observation recap
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All Credit to ChartBuddy
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April 21, 2024, 01:55:05 AM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028

I will sign on for that.

I would rather go by 200-WMA, and consider any additional BTC spot price performance as icing on the cake... and yeah, it seems that mostly BTC tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA - but not always... .

Sorry to be a party poop.. but I put the 200-WMA to be slightly over $100k by mid 2028 - so 25% above that would be $125k... and surely we may well get some peaks and troughs along the way, but doesn't seem healthy to be overly getting our hopes up... while at the same time, I am not giving up on my probability assignment charts that show 0.5%-ish odds for BTC prices to get into the $2.5 million or higher range.... yet I doubt that those would be sustainable prices.

What's the opinion on Bitcoin transaction fees here? I'd say Bitcoin is broken if any UTXO under 0.001 BTC isn't even enough to pay for it's own transaction fee.


Blocks now have a 3.125 BTC block reward and 10 BTC transaction fees. And as the above image shows: only a few percent is used by normal Bitcoin users with normal transactions. Spammers literally pay 4 million dollars per hour now to create meaningless Bitcoin dust.
See mempool.space for Mempool Goggles, and click Data to see only the "Ordinal" spam.

Maybe I might be in denial, yet I doubt that those kinds of fees are sustainable, even though I get the point that there needs to be some abilities for normies to be able to transact on-chain, even if it is infrequently... I suspect that those fees are going to be coming back down into the double digits.. or at least lower triple digits .. meaning below 100 sats per vbyte, which still is not cheap... but it would be somewhat manageable and perhaps incentivize some additional building to help to create cheaper transaction solutions.

On the other hand, I do get that this may be a certain kind of an attack on poor people being able to justify transacting or moving their coins to self-custody, and it makes it a lot harder to engage in day to day transactions, whch might cause some of us to conclude that bitcoin has become a much different thing than what we had thought that it was going to be, and is this attack being carried out on purpose in order to break the ability (or the attractiveness) of bitcoin for normies to want to get involved with.

Although some folks (would we call them degens) might be having fun with these things, to to the extent that it is NOT just seemingly like an attack to create the impression that bitcoin is broken.. so I have some trouble just presuming that an emergency exists, bitcoin is broken and/or that the nonsense costs of transactions are sustainable in such a way that the degens are actually getting other degens to pay for what they believe might have some kind of a buyer who is willing to pay for whatever dickbutts or whatever they might be creating on bitcoin and then wanting to sell to some other degen.

In other words, it costs someone a lot of money to be pushing the fees up so high like that and keeping them up there like that... to record setting levels... who is willing to pay it, how deep are their pockets, and is someone else coming in to pay them to refill their pockets?  I have my doubts... and maybe we have to watch it for a few days, a few weeks or even can they keep it up as long as they did from November to mid-February-ish? was that 2.5 months or so, and there could be some folks who are trying to create this "bitcoin is broke" narrative, but can they keep it up? and find buyers for the seemingly junk that they are creating?  Hey maybe it is not junk, but they are paying fees for it, even though I have my doubts about any rush to action or to conclude bitcoin is broken, merely because some folks found ways to have fun on bitcoin and are willing to spend a lot of money on their seemingly current funzies.
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April 21, 2024, 02:16:53 AM
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We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028

I will sign on for that.

I would rather go by 200-WMA, and consider any additional BTC spot price performance as icing on the cake... and yeah, it seems that mostly BTC tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA - but not always... .

Sorry to be a party poop.. but I put the 200-WMA to be slightly over $100k by mid 2028 - so 25% above that would be $125k... and surely we may well get some peaks and troughs along the way, but doesn't seem healthy to be overly getting our hopes up... while at the same time, I am not giving up on my probability assignment charts that show 0.5%-ish odds for BTC prices to get into the $2.5 million or higher range.... yet I doubt that those would be sustainable prices.



It's OK to be conservative, but we are NOW at 65K or so.
Slightly above 100K, say, 105K, is less than 14% a year for the next 4 years.
Even Nasdaq beat this in the last decade or so.
I would venture a guess that practically no one invests in btc for these kind of returns.
If you have said: 30% a year (185K at the next halving), I might have agreed.
If you want to counter that current 200wk average is much lower, I would say-would those investing today consider a 200wk average in their buying?
Of course, not, they would only compare their level of success to the buy price, which is also the current spot price.
200wk average is there to show the history as it's trajectory is meaningless when projected forward since at any moment a curve bend might occur (adoption, etc).
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April 21, 2024, 02:24:33 AM
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What's the opinion on Bitcoin transaction fees here? I'd say Bitcoin is broken if any UTXO under 0.001 BTC isn't even enough to pay for it's own transaction fee.
My opinion is that Ordinals were just a useless addition to Bitcoin. Maybe the chain should be split in a Core and an Ordinals variant, maybe with higher blocksize limit on the latter, to satisfy those blockwar-morons? IDK, but i wish inclusion of Ordinals would be rolled back ASAP. Who needs another sea of NFT's anyway?
I wish developers and individuals voting for BIPs would take a more cautious approach to add bitcoin functionality. It's not that hard. Just try to keep an eye on possible unwanted effects and outcomes of software "solutions" to problems or added functionality and address them before actually changing any code.
This type of thinking was the reason why i was hated by most collegues and even some of my bosses ("destroying" their "great" visions through factual criticism), and successful at the same time (through my own contributions and working alternatives to their "great" solutions) when i was working in the IT industry, back then.
Maybe Ordinals were orginally intended to break Bitcoin, who knows? I don't have enough background information on this branch/feature, so this is pure hollywood scriptbook thinking of mine. But, with an eye on NFTs and the presence of Bitcoin's slow transaction rate and limited block size, it would result in a nice attack vector to include the possibility to spam blocks, tainted as functionality.

Anyway, i was unhappy with the Ordinals idea as soon as i read about it the first time. This block spam confirmed my worries.

EDIT: And the whole drama with fees does have a touch of Ethereum to it, in regard to your original question, dunnit?

I doubt rolling back is feasible, and I am surely not going to jump to the conclusion that bitcoin is broken.. not yet anyhow.  Let's see how long those creating the higher fees can keep it up.... I have my doubts.


Price to follow  Cool

Bitcoin price does not follow hashrate. #justsaying It is the opposite, including that miners increase their hashrate out of anticipation that the BTC price is going to continue to go up... which it likely will for another 12-18 months from here... give or take.  Sorry to say, but you likely don't know (understand) bitcoin very well if you believe that price follows hash.   Cry Cry Cry  Not claiming that any of us (including yours truly) understands bitcoin, but surely price does not follow hashrate.. that is just ridiculous, even though I hear that kind of nonsense quite frequently, including from others than merely you and Philipma.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

This is my first post at WO, after my first halving, Thank God for life  Grin
Now for the big question
When is the dip coming
**
My colleague and I were really excited that we're going to buy the dip but now what we see sadden us while the sudden rise in fee is discouraging though it's getting better probably before the end of the day it will be normal

**I brought your seemingly retarded BIG down to a more reasonable and readable size.


You sound retarded to have had been waiting for a dip that might not happen, including maybe learning a lesson that it is better to be buying dee cornz regularly and constantly, especially if you are fairly new to bitcoin and/or you already have assessed that you don't have enough bitcoin.

According to your forum registration date, you already have nearly a year and a half in bitcoin, but yeah, you probably made the mistake of not buying aggressively, so you ONLY recently realized that you should have had been buying that whole time, and so now you are trying to be smart about it.. which also probably is not even the right thing to be doing for either no coiners and/or low coiners, and unless you front loaded your investment into BTC in the last year and a half, you are probably at minimum a low coiner.. which means you probably should be buying for the next 4 years and not be fucking around with figuring out if there might be a dip.. especially in these kinds of prices... now if we get up to $200k by this year or maybe $400k by next year, then maybe I will give you a bit of a break, even though probably as a newbie you should just be buying regularly and stop fucking around trying to act like you know which way the price is going to go, when you surely don't seem to have a clue, especially from the contents of your post.
 
So yeah, it is dumb to presume down and/or to prepare for ONLY 1 price direction, especially when there has already been 20% down from the ATH, so why would expect that MOAR down has to come..

yeah, sure more down might come, but it is not even close to having high chances of happening... and then tell us, how far are you hoping for? rather than just buying regularly?

I thought the fees would have come down a bit more by now but let's see how economical it is for these spammers to keep it up. Everytime this has happened before fees have come back down to reasonable levels, I don't think it will be different this time.

What I do know though is that I will not be transacting on the network while this keeps up.
fees will stay high from now on.

btw if a fee is 20 cents for a 3 dollar spend I would say that's too high

the bit coin maxers will be forced into scrypt for small sends.

You are not very good at these kinds of predictions.

Yes, there is an attempt to make it appear like there is an emergency, which costs a lot of money to keep that appearance.  Good luck.  Most likely there is not going to be any forced script or emergency measures.
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April 21, 2024, 03:11:24 AM

I'm all for spending crypto for day to day items but clearly BTC is not made for that. BTC is your savings account.
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April 21, 2024, 03:43:14 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

[edited out]
My local coffee shop McDonalds doesn't accept Bitcoin yet but I just sit outside of it with a sign that reads "The Bitcoin tx fee is too damn high today!  A little help please." and eventually someone buys my coffee.

FTFY

hahahahahaha

I know you well enough to realize that you are not so cultured as to go to an actual "coffee shop."

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

and if you are in USA zelle is fine up to $1000 usd.

frankly sending btc on the main chain for any thing under 1000 is dumb..

LN may get better eventually,but btc is much more a buy and hodl store of wealth than anyother thing.

I use zelle for nocoiner people
I use doge and ltc for small sends as it is easier than LN

I use main chain for large purchases of mining gear.
Spend $, hoard BTC. It's the best way.

Another name for that is Gresham's law.

Which largely means that we spend our worse money before we spend our better money, so in that order of things we would end up spending our BTC last, unless we put ourselves into some kind of a liquidity pickle in which sometimes if there is a liquidity crunch we might be forced to sell the thing that is most liquid, which might be bitcoin in some circumstances (which likely means that we messed up.... but sure sometimes mistakes are made, especially if we don't keep enough of some of the worser money to be able to spend prior to spending the better money, namely bitcoin).

Thank you.  I feel as though people didn't see the difference... I know it's pretty subtle and if you've seen the original, on seeing the revised halvening version your mind might play tricks but I posted this one for the last 10 blocks.  They will get out of synch with one another because I changed the timing on a couple of frames - apologies in advance.



Whatever difference might exist is beyond my ability to figure it out.  In other words, I need some kind of a further hint.
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