Ok. After listening to that, I can recognize that there are some built-in pause locations for the bat-slappenings, so I am not sure if we are going to need to practice in advance... but if not, we can wing it.
Also Marcus seems to not be available to assist, and we will have to let him know about our planned 2026 Iceland trip.
When supply shock?
I thought that it was already happening.. but difficult to see such a "supply shock" being reflected in the actual BTC price.
The beauty of this terribly managed fee market is that nobody can afford to move BTC to exchanges, so the weekend should be pretty quiet.
That could contribute to a "supply shock"
Happy 420, guys!
My local
pizza place McDonald's has the spirit!
FTFY
We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028
I will sign on for that.
I would rather go by 200-WMA, and consider any additional BTC spot price performance as icing on the cake... and yeah, it seems that mostly BTC tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA - but not always... .
Sorry to be a party poop.. but I put the 200-WMA to be slightly over $100k by mid 2028 - so 25% above that would be $125k... and surely we may well get some peaks and troughs along the way, but doesn't seem healthy to be overly getting our hopes up... while at the same time, I am not giving up on my probability assignment charts that show 0.5%-ish odds for BTC prices to get into the $2.5 million or higher range.... yet I doubt that those would be sustainable prices.
It's OK to be conservative, but we are NOW at 65K or so.
Slightly above 100K, say, 105K, is less than 14% a year for the next 4 years.
You gotta start out from current 200-WMA price of $33,600-ish.. so the number is higher than 14% per year, and the number is not usually going to be a straight line (or flat).... You can see past numbers in
my fuck you status chart that I have not updated with current numbers. But anyhow my use of the 200-WMA is referring to bottom prices not the "all over the place" spot prices.
If I go along with you and I end up putting in a flat line for the next 6 years for 32% per year, then April-ish (annualized) 200-WMA numbers look like this:
2024 $33,600.00
2025 $44,352.00
2026 $58,544.64
2027 $77,278.92
2028 $102,008.18
2029 $134,650.80
2030 $177,739.05
I am not saying that I know anything, yet using the 200-WMA rather than spot price is an attempt at a relatively conservative projection of bottom prices.
Of course, if I am going to be selling some BTC at various points along the way, I will be selling at spot price (which is likely going to be at various points above the 200-WMA.. and yeah, the BTC spot price could end up dragging the 200-WMA at a higher rate than anticipated, but I am not going to presume that in advance), so selling at spot price will end up serving as an extra bonus (or further icing on the cake).
For sure in worser case scenarios, there is some value in considering where the 200-WMA might be at any given time in the future if you are either not quite at fuck you status or you might be planning to either get to fuck you status or to be engaging in some attempts to sustainably live off (withdraw) your BTC at various times in the future.
Even Nasdaq beat this in the last decade or so.
I doubt Nasdaq is going to beat bitcoin, and you are using the wrong numbers anyhow.. in terms of my own projection seems to be around 32% rather than 14% per year (CAGR of the 200-WMA).
I would venture a guess that practically no one invests in btc for these kind of returns.
There are not too many people obsessed with the 200-WMA like me, and it seems that Plan B has some affinity with the 200-WMA, too... and sure there might be some others, but I surely likely try to ground expectations in more conservative ways and using bottom prices, and I think that people would be way better off doing that.
Of course, normies love to focus on BTC spot price, and sure, there is no problem with that being the place that people are going to buy and sell their BTC, but at the same time, if they are trying to help themselves to valuate their holdings more conservatively, then there surely is value in accounting where the 200-WMA currently is and where it might be going.
If you have said: 30% a year (185K at the next halving), I might have agreed.
Yes with the percentage, I did. I said about 32% CAGR, but using the bottom rather than top prices. Hardly no way to have any grounding when trying to figure out various top prices.. but surely even looking at a bit over $100k for the bottom price, it is not too unreasonable to consider that 25% to 125% higher than the bottom BTC price could be in play around that time of April 2028.
If you want to counter that current 200wk average is much lower, I would say-would those investing today consider a 200wk average in their buying?
Of course people buy at spot price, but they should valuate their holdings in terms of bottom prices, and if they go to sell, then of course, they will have decent chances of selling way higher than their valuation numbers.
Of course, not, they would only compare their level of success to the buy price, which is also the current spot price.
200wk average is there to show the history as it's trajectory is meaningless when projected forward since at any moment a curve bend might occur (adoption, etc).
Sure the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, and we can agree to disagree in term of whether you want to think about it or use it (apparently you do not). You can continue to refuse to consider it, and I am going to continue to suggest that the 200-WMA is a better way to bring sanity to the valuation of the BTC holdings of any normie.
Poll
