Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xzy887]

THEY NEVER GAVE YOU A WAY TO STORE WEALTH OUTSIDE THEIR GRIP.
BITCOIN CHANGES EVERYTHING.
OWN YOUR KEYS,
OWN YOUR FREEDOM.
THIS IS THE MOMENT.
FIGHT HARDER.
STACK HARDER

https://x.com/Saylorsatsire/status/1888207347023024277?t=IyivriVuuKM-LiUxEY5RCg&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Not to much so far
February starting wrong
When parabolic?

[xhomerx10]

Breaking the buddy with this nice AI jingle... the music it generates isn't bad at all (I did write the lyrics, lol)



(I uploaded it to Arweave, which is a file storage blockchain)

Nice!

OCD trigger: glasses' lens colors are reversed!

 Have I already become slave to the AI; cleaning up after it?

 

[Arcticc]

[edited out]

About usability...... i have a very very special opinion about that, and a lot of people is gonna kill me for what im gonna say, but for me BTC cant be the coin for the day to day transactions. I have a few arguments since his proper tecnology the way was build and the Gresham law.

Sure Gresham's law suggests that you use your bad money before you use your good money, so if you have other money to spend, then you would spend that first.  I doubt that precludes bitcoin from being used in transactions.  We just spend all of our more shitty money first, and if we have been working our whole life and saving in bitcoin, and maybe we are spending other kinds of money, and so when it comes time that we run out of our other money, then we have to spend our bitcoin.  Same thing if we were being paid in bitcoin, then we might save those but then if we are ONLY being paid in bitcoin, then after a while we have no choice but to spend our bitcoin if we want to eat and have shelter.
   

I think this view of gresham's law and bitcoin is interesting. gresham's law says people spend bad money like weaker currencies and keep good money, like precious metals. but bitcoin might change that. bitcoin is deflationary and has a fixed supply, making it a good store of value. people might use fiat or other money for daily spending, but bitcoin could be saved for the long term or as a hedge against inflation. It makes sense to use bitcoin for savings and spend lesser money, especially considering the risks of fiat currencies. I also think bitcoin will grow as a way to pay for things. as more people use it they will get more comfortable using bitcoin for everyday purchases. eventually, bitcoin might become the good money, with people spending more fiat money. If there’s no choice, people will have to use bitcoin for essentials. This idea seems both realistic and promising for bitcoin's future in the economy.

[Biodom]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

US data is also only approximately correct.
For US, if you hodl for less than 12 mo-it would be anywhere from 10% to 37+3.8%=40.8% tax plus state tax (if you are living in a state that has it, but Texas and Florida do not have state taxes).

For longer hodl (>12mo), tax is 0-(20+3.8%) aka 0-23.8%. When you get 0%? When you have no income or lower income and your cap gains+income are less than about 47K (individual) and about 94K for a family. Then, there is a "nice" 94K-583K area with 15% tax and then it goes up to max 20% when it is over 583K. At above $250K for a family and 200K for individual, 3.8% additional NIIT is added, resulting in 23.8% max cap gains (so, NIIT "bites" you much earlier than the 15->20% bracket).
Source:
https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/capital-gains-tax/602224/capital-gains-tax-rates

Conclusion: i would have preferred if we moved to a Germany or Czech Rebublic-like system, but no such luck any time soon, probably.

[xhomerx10]

🇨🇿 Czech President signed a law removing the capital gains tax on #Bitcoin after 3+ years of holding.
-snip-
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1887495804224495968?t=M7ORkYO_5_qIfkaaUSRI2w&s=19

The Czech Republic just made hodling a national sport.
-snip-

None of any taxes after three years, plus zero tax below hundred grand is better than what we currently have, thats all! Forcing people to hold for more than three years is damn already bullish. Therefore, anyone in the Czech Republic who chooses to do this will more than likely be in profit or at least close to it, this should encourage more people who do choose take advantage of this new policy to better understand Bitcoin and increase adoption. Afterall, I can sense a solid progress that what the government did.

If I am mistaken, the first country in the EU to pass such a law was Germany, where that period is 1 year, in Croatia it is twice as long and amounts to 2 years - while there was a lot of talk about how Portugal and Slovenia are very friendly when it comes to laws on taxation of cryptocurrencies, but I am not sure if that is still the case.

Yes, you are right. Here is the details of each regions on crypto taxation. Few countries data were not published here but last update was four weeks ago, probably we will be able to see Czech info here soon.

 The graphic is wrong for Canada (7.5% to 16.5% is not correct).  The tax rate on cap gains for "crypto" ranges from 0% to 27.4% of your total gain depending on your total taxable income.  If your only income is from your "crypto" gain (and you aren't considered a day tarder), you would potentially pay 0 tax on up to ~$31400 of a capital gain if you live in the right province.  Worst case scenario [until Jan 1, 2026 when the inclusion rate goes to a diabolical 66.6% (2/3 inclusion rate)] is currently 27.4% on your gains.  Essentially and regardless of which province you call home, 50% of your capital gains are yours and the other 50% are subjected to the same taxation rate as income so you'll be taxed at your top marginal rate.  It's straightforward but not simple.

I thought i just read up on CA personal income tax... yeah it is complicated! Federal and Provincial.... but ultimately it seems the same as what we have here in AU.. except there isn't any holding requirements. Automatic 50% discount!.. which is awesome better than what we have here...!

I was wondering where you got the 27.4% from... Found out, that's a make up for 33% Federal and 21.8% Provincial (Newfoundland and Labrador)... 54.8% top marginal rate is nuts!

 That's right - Newfoundland and even if they do get a full 2 weeks of summer, it hardly justifies that exorbitant marginal rate.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Not to much so far
February starting wrong
When parabolic?

Sorry the cooler
Is the musky trumpeter
Maybe corn grows up

So far the cooler
Is causing shrinkage of corn
But corn may still grow

Hold hold hold your corn
 Do not faulter hold your corn
I dca corn

I mine and hodl
Beats the musky trumpeter
Waiting till next term

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Empty mempool.... Starting to feel bad for it!.... Feels like a new kid on the playground without any friends to play with!...

not sure what to make of it.. 40+ millions wallets and only 1000 or so transactions... Is Layer 2 - Lightning Network working?




One thing is for sure... Hash rate will jump 6% higher in 18 hours!

Which is in fact great. Ordinals and other retarded stuff (inscriptions or whatever they're called) are gone finally. It basically means Bitcoin is turning into store of value not some kind of dick pic or fart sound storage. You have to understand one thing: it's not the number of transactions in the mempool that's driving Bitcoin price up.     

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?

Sounds more like a quick way to lose money!... Not even sure where to start with this one... Slippage/TAX/Fees, not to mention Bitcoin DGAF about patterns!

and yeah OK if you had 10,000BTC ($1B), you really spending your time trying to add a measly 0.1BTC to your stash.

Frequently, these traders are pie in the sky nutjobs, and your response reminded me that his two extremes are unrealistic, yet if we have a guy who already reached his accumulation goal.. let's say 21 BTC, and maybe he has 35 BTC, so maybe he might sell 0.5 BTC or something like that around $100k and then see what happens.. especially since it is extra BTC... If nothing happens, then he has an extra $50k that he can spend, and if the price goes down he ends up buying back and ends up with 0.0555555 more BTC... and I am ONLY saying this in terms of the guy not giving any shits either way, since with my hypothetical the guy has more bitcoin than he needs or wants with 35 BTC, and with  a 0.5 BTC sale, he is merely selling about 1.5% of his stash.

As I mentioned with OOM earlier, I would prefer the guy to be selling on the way up rather than on the way down, so maybe the guy sold on one of the earlier price runs to the upside, and I also prefer selling smaller amounts, but I am not totally opposed to 1.5% sale if we are considering our price run from $70k to $100k-ish.. that is something like 43% up.. so sure, no  problem with that (if we might have presumed he sold another 1.5% at some earlier point, perhaps around $70k.. and yeah, the sales might start to add up.. or maybe he has a rule about every 50% raise, he can sell 1.5% of his stash, and that would be reasonable.   I also still believe that selling BTC at our around $100k is not a very great place to be selling with any expectations to buy back, since that seems to be so much the talking point of so many "smarter than everyone else traders" who have the "sure trade" of selling at $100k, even though I am a bit unclear about their buying back point... perhaps $70k-ish?  I continue to have doubts about that trade working out.

getting ready to buy some corn just a little lower

Source. and elements canva.
If you buy some corn now, it will turn into popcorn after a few days and its size will be several times larger.

is it still considered corn?

Sure why not.
I NEED it to drop to 89 or lower I will load up

You have been in bitcoin for 12 years (or is it 13 years?) and you still don't gots enough?  

Breaking the buddy with this nice AI jingle... the music it generates isn't bad at all (I did write the lyrics, lol)

(I uploaded it to Arweave, which is a file storage blockchain)

You are retarded.  But the jingle still is funny.  

The pool should be updated

I think the first wave of bitcoin high is gonna over soon and then we gonna do see deep correction that I don't like it at all hahah  

Wow you are selling?  That's probably not going to end well.

[edited out]

It is not my intention to have endless discussions with you, considering that you take every statement too seriously

I am not supposed to take you seriously?

and that you want some kind of evidence that I have or do not have a certain number of BTC, as if anyone normal in WO or anywhere else on the forum signs messages proving that they have 1 or 10 BTC.

I never asked you to prove your quantity of BTC.  I merely asserted that your fucking around with trading is likely not giving you as many BTC that you would have had if you would have had stuck to a mostly straight-forward and routine DCA strategy, and your evasiveness (and unnecessary argumentativeness) seems to confirm my assessment of your likely situation.. but you still want to fuck around with trading (and to try to convince others that trading is the best thing since sliced bread) even though you have not able to beat a more straight-forward and regular DCA approach.

Another thing that makes it worse is that you seem to want to entice others to be dumb like you, and to trade their likely hard earned cornz rather than to error on the side of BTC accumulation and/or HODL.

If my posts bother you, you have the ignore option - I use it for all that I consider to be writing nonsense.

Your posts don't bother me. They are entertaining (sometimes - as long as no one takes you seriously, as you seem to now want to assert), and even though sometimes your posts are a bit difficult to figure out, especially if you are acting as if selling BTC at $100k and buying back at $90k (or around $90k) is a sure bet.  

Maybe such a BTC price move from $100k to $90k will happen, and you can proclaim "I told you so," and maybe it won't, but such BTC price move surely is not even close to a sure bet...even if your gambling attempt (and seeming attempt to convince others) does end up happening.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Re trading...I used to trade a LOT on the stock market, especially when I just started (late in the last century).
In one year i had about 1000 trades and not much cap gains to show, albeit I was quite 'profitable', still.
Later on, life showed me that it is not the quantity of your trades, but their quality that could give you an edge.
That was a second period with some trades, but not too many.

In bitcoin, every time I tried to trade it, it went spectacularly bad as far as timing is concerned, especially in 2017 when I listened to Vinny and sold some btc: not a large %, but still...
Basically, I sold at then ATH only to see it go up 16X in the SAME year. I did something active with the proceeds so did not "lose" all that appreciation, but it was annoying as i traded when i shouldn't had to.

After that, I practically did not trade btc at all: not selling or significant buying, just hodling and small time mining with small buying as well.
Instead, I trade stocks to 'scratch' that itch, but not too much trading occurs.
In fact, I rarely even look at individual stocks midday, albeit I could never become one of the bogleheads with 70/30 VTI/BND allocation-it would bore me to smithereens.

However, lately, I start getting a bit of an urge to sell some btc, but with my prior 'history' I know that exactly when I want to sell (or soon after) btc is prone to rally  .
I guess one reason to potentially consider selling is a bad market configuration overall with SP500 being extended about 2X from the average P/E plus tariffs "war", etc, etc.
However, the timing of a mean-adjustment could take years and not affect btc prices much, eliminating the need to sell any btc soon.

In our area, house prices seem to decline a little bit currently or at least people are getting discounts.
The economy might be slowing down a little as well, but it is not clear if markets would throw a fit, decline 30% and "demand" lower interest rates soon.
In such scenario, bitcoin would decline first, but then would be prone to a pop up due to new QE, just like it did in 2020.

[Cossyblack]

#Bitcoin is simply a matter of time.


https://x.com/BitcoinSapiens/status/1888077806849974358?t=kA2zyVkkWl_3bE4AiFxaCA&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bestcandy]

#Bitcoin is simply a matter of time.


https://x.com/BitcoinSapiens/status/1888077806849974358?t=kA2zyVkkWl_3bE4AiFxaCA&s=19

I love your assertion. Bitcoin is certainly a matter of time and consistency. Going back to what the price of Bitcoin was in the past years it's so obvious that Bitcoin will perfectly do better than what we are seeing now in the future and those that are able to invest in Bitcoin now will be riding on white horses in the future because of the level of their financial stability and the profit that the Bitcoin they are accumulating now will yield in the future.

[bestcandy]

If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?

Sounds more like a quick way to lose money!... Not even sure where to start with this one... Slippage/TAX/Fees, not to mention Bitcoin DGAF about patterns!

and yeah OK if you had 10,000BTC ($1B), you really spending your time trying to add a measly 0.1BTC to your stash.

Frequently, these traders are pie in the sky nutjobs, and your response reminded me that his two extremes are unrealistic, yet if we have a guy who already reached his accumulation goal.. let's say 21 BTC, and maybe he has 35 BTC, so maybe he might sell 0.5 BTC or something like that around $100k and then see what happens.. especially since it is extra BTC... If nothing happens, then he has an extra $50k that he can spend, and if the price goes down he ends up buying back and ends up with 0.0555555 more BTC... and I am ONLY saying this in terms of the guy not giving any shits either way, since with my hypothetical the guy has more bitcoin than he needs or wants with 35 BTC, and with  a 0.5 BTC sale, he is merely selling about 1.5% of his stash.

As I mentioned with OOM earlier, I would prefer the guy to be selling on the way up rather than on the way down, so maybe the guy sold on one of the earlier price runs to the upside, and I also prefer selling smaller amounts, but I am not totally opposed to 1.5% sale if we are considering our price run from $70k to $100k-ish.. that is something like 43% up.. so sure, no  problem with that (if we might have presumed he sold another 1.5% at some earlier point, perhaps around $70k.. and yeah, the sales might start to add up.. or maybe he has a rule about every 50% raise, he can sell 1.5% of his stash, and that would be reasonable.   I also still believe that selling BTC at our around $100k is not a very great place to be selling with any expectations to buy back, since that seems to be so much the talking point of so many "smarter than everyone else traders" who have the "sure trade" of selling at $100k, even though I am a bit unclear about their buying back point... perhaps $70k-ish?  I continue to have doubts about that trade working out.

getting ready to buy some corn just a little lower

Source. and elements canva.
If you buy some corn now, it will turn into popcorn after a few days and its size will be several times larger.

is it still considered corn?

Sure why not.
I NEED it to drop to 89 or lower I will load up

You have been in bitcoin for 12 years (or is it 13 years?) and you still don't gots enough?  

Breaking the buddy with this nice AI jingle... the music it generates isn't bad at all (I did write the lyrics, lol)

(I uploaded it to Arweave, which is a file storage blockchain)

You are retarded.  But the jingle still is funny.  

The pool should be updated

I think the first wave of bitcoin high is gonna over soon and then we gonna do see deep correction that I don't like it at all hahah  

Wow you are selling?  That's probably not going to end well.

[edited out]

It is not my intention to have endless discussions with you, considering that you take every statement too seriously

I am not supposed to take you seriously?

and that you want some kind of evidence that I have or do not have a certain number of BTC, as if anyone normal in WO or anywhere else on the forum signs messages proving that they have 1 or 10 BTC.

I never asked you to prove your quantity of BTC.  I merely asserted that your fucking around with trading is likely not giving you as many BTC that you would have had if you would have had stuck to a mostly straight-forward and routine DCA strategy, and your evasiveness (and unnecessary argumentativeness) seems to confirm my assessment of your likely situation.. but you still want to fuck around with trading (and to try to convince others that trading is the best thing since sliced bread) even though you have not able to beat a more straight-forward and regular DCA approach.

Another thing that makes it worse is that you seem to want to entice others to be dumb like you, and to trade their likely hard earned cornz rather than to error on the side of BTC accumulation and/or HODL.

If my posts bother you, you have the ignore option - I use it for all that I consider to be writing nonsense.

Your posts don't bother me. They are entertaining (sometimes - as long as no one takes you seriously, as you seem to now want to assert), and even though sometimes your posts are a bit difficult to figure out, especially if you are acting as if selling BTC at $100k and buying back at $90k (or around $90k) is a sure bet.  

Maybe such a BTC price move from $100k to $90k will happen, and you can proclaim "I told you so," and maybe it won't, but such BTC price move surely is not even close to a sure bet...even if your gambling attempt (and seeming attempt to convince others) does end up happening.

Inasmuch as we are in this forum together we are just like one big family and as such I think there is need for us to be more polite when quoting someone opinion. However, trading  is just like gambling because both have similar risk which may result to significant gain or to a total lost of asset if not careful enough.
Accumulating Bitcoin for long term plan either by lump sum or DCA depending on the dip price or the strategy that is more fovarable to you is more preferable to trading because if you have enough Bitcoin in stock you are likely to make huge profit in the future by selling fraction of it when the price is high.