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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26816531 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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May 05, 2014, 06:59:17 PM


They go great together on bitcointalk.
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May 05, 2014, 07:00:22 PM

poeple appear to be more fearfull this week.

Could you add "bored" to the poll?
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May 05, 2014, 07:00:45 PM


Explanation
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May 05, 2014, 07:03:29 PM

You are repeating yourself. From "I have no idea where price is about to go" you conclude "Nobody can know where it'll go". Some form of Dunning-Kruger corollary, I suspect.

Re: $266. I never said we'd go there with certainty. Neither did windjc. He described a scenario where we could hit a price that low. But don't worry, I know: you don't think of events in term of (conditional) probabilities. "He said 266, so that means he thinks we will go there." I got the impression windjc is smarter than to think in binary terms.

I didn't say nobody can know where it will go. I said you don't know where the bitcoin price will go. You could admit that rather than spouting faux intellectual nonsense about cognitive bias.

(Ironically enough I do think in binary terms when it comes to the eventual outcome of bitcoin.)
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May 05, 2014, 07:08:48 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.
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May 05, 2014, 07:11:07 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.

how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.
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May 05, 2014, 07:24:42 PM
Last edit: May 05, 2014, 08:00:51 PM by Post-Cosmic

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one.  So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were.  In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous.  NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge.  You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum.  Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Want me to be blunt about it? Over-moderation is dumb, no forum worth posting on does it, and I often skim your posts for relevant material because I feel they tend to ramble on, sometimes incoherently, so forgive me for missing an important sentence or two every now and then.

Was that straight-forward enough for you?

 +1 that judicious, discerning & productive moderation isn't easy or clear-cut at all, and that heavy moderation is digressive, censory & stupid.

 I can attest that Oct. is not the only person skimming some people's posts.. JJG's in particular, given the excessive wordiness often encountered, albeit admittedly made using excellently articulate language.

 What's actually ridiculous, JJG, is for you to be repeatedly distraught that people "[..] definitely don't know enough about you to make such statements/claims..", while at the same time alleging that Octaft is disingenuous & imply that he could not possibly be 'coming from a place of higher knowledge..' when anyone of good cognizance who's been following his posting will definitely substantiate that he's one of the more erudite minds around here who don't get biased easily & are diligent in their intellectual approach.

 And since we're on this topic, I'll add that it strongly appears to my perspective that these 'scandalized defensiveness' conversational tendencies and your apparent need to insert vulgar language here & there, are transparent symptoms of the insecurity you feel with some of the obsessive patterns you use when communicating, such as your characteristic capitalized 'NOT' inserted every few sentences or so ;p


I know there are more people like this in the world, who buy cheaply, don't read news (they are lies) or forums (who would write anything worthwhile), and are expecting to lose all. Nothing can shake them once they have bought. That's the beauty of it Wink

If bitcoin goes down another 6 months, all the coins belong to the likes of me. You still think the price will go down afterwards?

 Absolutely not ; I agree, once 'all the coins' (;p) belong to serious unshakeable hands, price would not drop afterwards.

 ..And that is precisely why, although it isn't a bad time to buy unleveraged right now, and hold, for the majority of the needed longterm retracement/correction has most probably already been priced in w/ our several-months downtrend ; that waiting all the way until it at least touches the 2300-2400's/360-400's & load up in (optionally max-leveraged Cool) longs/buy's from that most profitable entry down there, is the smartest course of action right now, as my next post shall illustrate clearly Grin

 Bitcoin is beautiful.

 ..That doesn't mean it's prevented from revisiting 300's or even breaking previous lows.

 Rather, it means it'll bounce even more voraciously, from any lows, regardless of how much more potentially dire, final, 'G0x-Feb-19-like' the next round of bad headlines are to be, than it even did back on Apr. 10-11's reversal from $340.

 It just means that it's a -beautiful, invaluable, lucky-we-finally-have-it- piece of technology, that has nothing to do with its exchange-listed price-to-fiat ratio...!!!!!!!!!!!!

 You can love bitcoin (& all crypto..? xD) as I do regardless of being a trader or holder, short or long, buying or selling, FOR CHRIST'S SAKE YOU DO NOT HAVE TO HODL ALL YOUR COINS UNSHAKEABLY JUST TO 'PROVE' / MAKE A STATEMENT THAT YOU BELIEVE IN BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY..!!!!!!!!!!

 Speaking of which...

Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing.  He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.

Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2.  

Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).

Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.

 +10.

 [Whoa, such female wit & cognizant perspective, much rare..??! WTB moar xDDDDD]


It's no worse than the compulsive disorder of this guy who sits there passively non-stop complaining about how everyone are idiots and how every 1% drop is a panic and that the Chinese market should be disconnected even though it can be arbitraged. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 +5 for truth on the matter of the peculiar bird-dog mutant ;9


The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha

 In Soviet Russia, bitcoin speaks engrish.

 &, xaxa @ the UserName ^^



They go great together on bitcointalk.

 +5  Kiss  Cheesy Grin
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May 05, 2014, 07:33:41 PM

The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha
Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators.    For the next 6 months BTC should outperform.
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May 05, 2014, 07:44:03 PM

Today ladies & gents we are having the delightful story of why exactly the big dump isn't in yet, corroborating even further what the TA chartists are preaching :







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May 05, 2014, 07:46:01 PM

Well yes, it's a shame that it is mostly Bitcoin cultists on the one hand and Bitcoin haters on the other, but that's the nature of controversial topics. I like Bitcoin, but I dislike the cultists because they rob themselves of intellectual freedom and attempt to do the same to others.

And many/most Bitcoin haters are probably a reaction against the Bitcoin cultists. I know that I have taken pleasure in watching Bitcoin go down just to spite some cultist dick on a forum who was screaming n00b at me for selling.
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May 05, 2014, 07:55:25 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.
how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s I spent as much time discussing space exploration on the USENET sci.space forum as I am spending here.   Here is one of my posts from that time.  By the way, "mining" then meant extracting precious elements from asteroids to build spaceships or space colonies.

But no one ever told me that I had to put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture at least a small asteroid of my own, for my ramblings to be worthy of that forum.  Wink

PS. In 1986 the internet was restricted to universities and some computer companies, such as DEC where I pretended to work worked, and was managed by (D)ARPA.   There was no WWW; only FTP, e-mail, and USENET (a distributed bulletin board with its own protocol, UUCP).  There were no anonymous users; if anyone misbehaved badly, other people would complain to his employer/university, and that usually solved the problem.   Can you imagine an internet with no spam, no advertising, no phishing, no viruses, no webpages that steal your cycles to mine bitcoins, no silly avatars? In 1986 the first computer worm was still 3 years away.   Sigh...  Cry
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May 05, 2014, 07:59:23 PM

Today ladies & gents we are having the delightful story of why exactly the big dump isn't in yet, corroborating even further what the TA chartists are preaching :








add this.. hahaha!  Grin Grin

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May 05, 2014, 08:00:45 PM


Explanation
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May 05, 2014, 08:01:27 PM

hello capitulation Wink
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May 05, 2014, 08:01:50 PM

So, tonight we will witness the great fall below 400 Smiley
Popcorn is rdy:)
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May 05, 2014, 08:07:44 PM

So, tonight we will witness the great fall below 400 Smiley
Popcorn is rdy:)

I am a bull, but I would enjoy that more than the this stagnancy.
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May 05, 2014, 08:12:39 PM

add this.. hahaha!  Grin Grin




"How much for your tank ?"
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May 05, 2014, 08:29:40 PM

Try to stay objective, okay?
Are you coaching yourself here?   

I do NOT want to assume anything, but it seems to me that you may be a little frustrated to have to defend your comment because you are internally of the belief that it is so obviously an objective fact that bitcoin followers are cultish, and NOT an insult to be calling people in this thread cultists.  Just because it has some basis in truth, and you can find some of the pointed out behaviours in the real world does NOT make the conclusion correct.  A lot of myths have some basis in reality.  A lot of propaganda has some basis in reality.  A lot of trolling comments have some basis in reality.  Merely because some observed conclusions have some basis in reality does NOT make them true.



So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so.

I do think so.  You are trying to simplify matters, and you are trying to suggest that a large number of people who are pro-bitcoin have NO brains. 


As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

You do NOT have numbers because the accusation is based on purely anecdotal evidence.  Surely, cultish can mean a lot of different things, but it does have a definition and the definition is generally derogatory and applied to religious behavior.  Bitcoin is NOT a religion and NOT religious behavior, even though there may be some examples in which you can point to people within bitcoin who are demonstrating those same kinds of behaviours.  Even though you can point to that kind of behavior in various bitcoin communities, that mere fact does NOT meet the cultish definition for the group or to say “many in here” are cultish goes to imply that coltishness is some kind of wide-spread phenomenon in bitcoin.

Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.
So what?  Some people are going to demonstrate irrational exuberance with all kinds of their investments, and bitcoin should be no different than that.  At what price did he invest in bitcoin?  Is he currently at a profit or a loss?  If he is holding long term, then great, he may be ahead at some point in the near future.  But with any investment, he may lose the amount that he invested.  The fact that people agree with his investment does NOT prove that it is a cult, either, it proves that they have confidence that the odds are good for btc prices to go up.  For example, if you invest $1000 in bitcoin, you could lose $1000 or you could potentially gain $100,000 or some in between result could occur.  The mere fact that someone is betting the farm on bitcoin does NOT necessarily mean that bitcoin is a cult or that his behavior was cultish.  It depends on the circumstances of that particular case.


 








The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the /possibility/ of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0 (or at least, close to it), in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses /should/ be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses /are/ actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!".

So what?  Surely there are some people who think that it is impossible for bitcoin to go to zero, but I would think that would be an exception.  I would think that most here would admit that there are real possibilities that bitcoin could go to zero, but they put the odds of that very low.  That does NOT make them a cult, even though some people here may from time to time be inarticulate or incomprehensible when making their response to any given situation (myself included).  Sometimes we talk in extreme terms or exaggerate our positions to make a point – even though if push comes to shove we may NOT be 100% wedded to the point that we are making.  Some comments are spins, some comments are visceral reactions and some comments are very well thought through.  In a streaming forum, you are going to get a wide array of reactions, and do NOT expect all of the reactions to be well thought through or a reflection of the posters true and deep down feelings or beliefs.




Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like, and look at the reactions. That's cultish.

Yes, agreed that this kind of thing could happen with bitcoin and cause considerable logistical difficulties and possibly even completely destroy some or all of the value in the bitcoin holders.  Again, so what?  How likely is this to happen?  Does this possibility mean that I should sell my BTC today?  I am personally diversified, and NOT everyone is diversified in a balanced way… but so what?  People take risks, and some of us (probably many of us) are NOT technologically sophisticated enough to really understand the various technological components of bitcoin and to assess the likelihood of a blockchain reset.  Even technological people do NOT understand all aspects of bitcoin when it comes to dealing with all possibilities of human corruption or the abilities of humans to employ quantum computing or social engineering to undermine or to destroy or to manipulate bitcoin in various ways. 
Merely because we do NOT understand it and merely because we dismiss various potentially valid arguments does NOT make us cultish.

 



The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound like rallying cries, to keep the troops in line. It's like military esprit de corps, or, well, a cult.


You may know that bitcoin is being attacked in various ways and bitcoin is a threat in various ways to many status quo forces.  There may be some we behavior going on and attempts to rally solidarity, but in the end, there are a lot of individuals who are making decisions for themselves.  Some people my follow andreas antonopolis (or some other bitcoin enthusiasts/evangelists) and to listen to everything that he says… so what?    Sometimes, trust is built, but are we going to drink coolaide when they tell us to drink coolaide.  Some will, but so what?  Overall, there is NOT that much control over “many.”  “Many” have considerable confidence that bitcoin is going to continue to prosper and to expand and to go up in prices.  “Many” also hope and pray that BTC goes up in prices so that they can make a lot of money… so what?  These behaviors are NOT cultish, just because you and others in the mainstream media keep repeating that they are cultish. 



In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception.

So you are trying to suggest that you see reality better than other people? You and Blitz.  You guys/gals are objective and the rest of us are delusional?  Get off your high horse.  Many people go through the same kinds of mixed feelings as you an blitz – though maybe others are NOT so presumptive to begin to call others names because of their knowledge level.  Surely, there are several levels of knowledge, and sometimes people just go forward with their investment choice of buy or hodl based on faith, but so what?  Some people also may NOT have a lot of time to investigate, and they will invest based on what others are doing.  Some also engage in wishful thinking and select the facts that they want to be true… and in the end, there is a lot of variety in knowledge levels and what facts people are going to recognize as being true or plausible.



To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

Yes.  It is both confrontational and wrong to call “most in here” as cultish.  It’s denigrating and it is an oversimplification, and playing into mainstream propaganda.  Even though there is some truth to the myth, you are wrong to be propagating this kind of bullshit framework in order to denigrate people who come from a variety of persepctives and many of whom would like to come to these kinds of threads and to participate in these kinds of threads in order to become better informed about bitcoin – rather than to be denigrated, merely because they may be enthusiastic about the prospects of bitcoin.
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May 05, 2014, 08:30:25 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.
how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s I spent as much time discussing space exploration on the USENET sci.space forum as I am spending here.   Here is one of my posts from that time.  By the way, "mining" then meant extracting precious elements from asteroids to build spaceships or space colonies.

But no one ever told me that I had to put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture at least a small asteroid of my own, for my ramblings to be worthy of that forum.  Wink

PS. In 1986 the internet was restricted to universities and some computer companies, such as DEC where I pretended to work worked, and was managed by (D)ARPA.   There was no WWW; only FTP, e-mail, and USENET (a distributed bulletin board with its own protocol, UUCP).  There were no anonymous users; if anyone misbehaved badly, other people would complain to his employer/university, and that usually solved the problem.   Can you imagine an internet with no spam, no advertising, no phishing, no viruses, no webpages that steal your cycles to mine bitcoins, no silly avatars? In 1986 the first computer worm was still 3 years away.   Sigh...  Cry


I bet you were a Millenium and Deuteros player


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May 05, 2014, 08:37:08 PM

[...]

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.


You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?



Yes, your desire to "keep it simple" caused you to lose your own objectivity and to over generalize, to be offensive and to simply come to the wrong conclusions.

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